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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football System - 2 team parlays
FreakyFresh send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#76
Posted: 10/17/2009 11:18:24 PM
And yeah, I kinda take an interest in math, stats, and excel.
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slwholesales send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
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#77
Posted: 10/18/2009 2:17:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoop121:

Freaky,

I've been using this for 4 weeks now on the game totals, 1H totals, and 2H totals and I've made a ton of money using only the games higher than 40%.

You said you backtested 200+ games...what was the minimum percentage of sides/totals that you used when backtesting this system?


Could you post the 1H and 2H totals before the games? I'm interesting in following your strategy but I got a lot of systems on my plate at the moment.


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#78
Posted: 10/18/2009 3:29:31 AM
probably not, but the ones I followed today were:
 
1H Marshall +13
1H WVU     u27.5
 
1H Arkansas +14
1H Florida    u28
 
1H New Mexico St O/22.5
1H Louisiana Tech -12.5
 
1H Colorado St +13
1H TCU           U\22.5
 
1H South Carolina +10
1H Alabama         u\22.5
 
1H San Jose St O/22
1H Fresno St    -12
 
These were the only 1H games that I played and they all won. The unders won 4 and the overs won 2.
 
Almost all of the second halves of these games were losers except for New Mexico St and TCU games. Luckily, I scaled back my wagers just in case this happened so I still held on to a lot of my profit.
 
The full games that I played went 5-1-1
 
Overall, I wagered 10 per parlay on games less than 40%. 25 per parlay on games 40-45%. 40 per on games 46-50. 50 per parlay on 50-55. 75 per parlay on 55-60. and 100 per parlay on over 60.
 
I ended up netting $650.
 
Last week wasn't as successful. I only made about $240.
 
 
 
 
 
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#79
Posted: 10/19/2009 12:12:36 AM
Thank you. Can you add me as a friend so we can PM? Thanks!
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j-walk
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#80
Posted: 10/19/2009 1:55:35 PM
Okay it looks like this system is legit.  If we dont have locals can anyone verify an online book that will take these bets?  Or does anyone know if Vegas books will take these bets?
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#81
Posted: 10/19/2009 2:07:50 PM
j-walk - it appears that thegreek takes the bets, I know they take the favorite/over bet cause I tested it.... but not sure if they will do the dog/under bet at the same time. I am going to try it this weekend.
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FreakyFresh send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#82
Posted: 10/19/2009 9:07:54 PM
slwholesals, You gotta let us know about that bud, there is serious cash to be made here if they do.
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KMang send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
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#83
Posted: 10/19/2009 9:33:24 PM
I have known about this system for a few years, it is !!
 
However, the problem for me has always been finding an online book that will take these parlays.  If anyone has one that they know of, my deposit will be in the next day.....  until they get wise and shut it down too.  There is a reason why nobody will take these bets, its one of those systems that is tried and true.
 
Good thread here.....Thanks!
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#84
Posted: 10/20/2009 2:05:19 AM
I am going to try this system over the weekend and get back to everyone. Well I will try it as soon as the total lines are posted.

I will try to totals for the game and the 1H/2H lines that hoop suggests.
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#85
Posted: 10/20/2009 2:41:00 AM
I'm going to be at the OSU-Baylor game this weekend and won't be able to do the 2H parlays this weekend. It's probably for the better because they weren't profitable last weekend.
 
If you want to do the 1H and 2H then just use the same formula with those as you do with the full games.
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#86
Posted: 10/20/2009 11:30:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoop121:

I'm going to be at the OSU-Baylor game this weekend and won't be able to do the 2H parlays this weekend. It's probably for the better because they weren't profitable last weekend.
 
If you want to do the 1H and 2H then just use the same formula with those as you do with the full games.

Exactly, the 2H totals not being profitable last week is solely based on randomness. 1H, 2H, Games, all fall within the same criteria

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#87
Posted: 10/20/2009 2:09:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hoop121:

I'm going to be at the OSU-Baylor game this weekend and won't be able to do the 2H parlays this weekend. It's probably for the better because they weren't profitable last weekend.
 
If you want to do the 1H and 2H then just use the same formula with those as you do with the full games.


Do you play the 2H lines BEFORE the game starts? or at Half Time?

Thanks!
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#88
Posted: 10/20/2009 3:46:26 PM

Gotta play them at half, more accurate.

Good luck this week wholesales, gotta let us know. Don't get discouraged though if they let you and you lose, because with more and more weeks, this is almost guarenteed to be profitable!

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#89
Posted: 10/21/2009 3:55:13 PM
Sorry guys, I was apparently wrong with thegreek on the GAME TOTAL.

However I did a practice on the 1H wager, fav/over for tonight's tulsa game and it works.... this play does not meet the system and is not a play. However thegreek okays the bet.

So I am wondering if they have a formula that prevents adding the fav/over or dog/under when the spread is 40% of game total or more.

Unfortunately I cannot test that aspect of this because most of the games don't have the halftime lines posted.

I will let you all know before the weekend.
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#90
Posted: 10/22/2009 10:34:11 PM

my book shows a restricted bet limit on all games where the spread is 33% of the total. so i'm sure the greek probably has a filter that will not allow you to do this as well.

if you'd like in on the action maybe we could work something out where i can place the bets for you and transact via paypal. ;)

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#91
Posted: 10/22/2009 11:15:02 PM

fellas.. online books will not accept this type of bet. I have tried believe me! Hoop you are right..they filter it at 30+%. I squeezed one in at 35% on my book and it hit.  I do believe when the system first started it only required 30%+, but has evolved to be more accurate at 40+%.  

I have been thinking though.. I wonder if there is a way [based off this system] to pick Totals or Sides as a straight bet.  One could capp the side to know the projected total or capp the total to know the projected side. But I think the starting point would be the win % of favs/overs vs. dogs/unders within the system. That is if the favs hit over 65% on this system, which would mean the fav wins ATS so the pick would be over straight up...or vise versa. 

For example....one would find game that meets the system 40% requirment.  If the system hits better on favs as a parlay play, then the best option on a straight bet would be the over on that paticular bet.

 

I am a bit booze up...I hope this make sense.

 

 

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#92
Posted: 10/23/2009 12:00:29 AM

JMon,

I get what you're saying and I don't have the exact stats yet, but I've noticed that the underdog/under parlay hits more often than the fav/over. Therefore, playing the undersog and under would be more profitbale if you chose that route. Makes sense though sense the public typically selects the favorite and the over so the lines are always more favorable on the fade.

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#93
Posted: 10/23/2009 1:00:14 AM
Would you be willing to back track this system to calc the fav/ov or un/dog %.  I have been out of the loop due to my local stopping these bets.  darn...I only took a K from him. Anyway, when I was traking....seemed like the fav/ov was the majority?
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FreakyFresh send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
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#94
Posted: 10/23/2009 11:07:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by JMon:

Would you be willing to back track this system to calc the fav/ov or un/dog %.  I have been out of the loop due to my local stopping these bets.  darn...I only took a K from him. Anyway, when I was traking....seemed like the fav/ov was the majority?


I think the reasoning behind the system would lead to the favorites and the overs hitting at a higher clip, but I'll try and back check.
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#95
Posted: 10/23/2009 6:44:49 PM
Guys, I think I'm on to something here, I'm backtesting tonight on it, and I'll post a detailed analysis of it as well.
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#96
Posted: 10/23/2009 8:32:09 PM
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#97
Posted: 10/24/2009 1:20:50 AM
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#98
Posted: 10/25/2009 10:50:50 AM
the 1H and full games that were 40% and above all came in as a total loser yesterday. Not a huge loser, but overall a loss. My biggest play was the Oregon/Washington St game. It was like a 70% for the 1H so I put $250 on both sides of it. Washington St. scored with :37 seconds left in the half to cover the 1H spread and send it a few points over. Then that trend continued for the rest of the game and I lost another 200 on the full game. If it weren't for this game the system would have been up HUGE. 

I'll be home later tonight and try to run some stats on the 3 weeks I've used this so far. 

And for the record I' a die hard (more die) Baylor fan. I laid 3k on the Okie Lite before game time yesterday. Sorry I didn't let you guys in on that one. There was no way Baylor got within 9.5 points. In fact, I am going to fade Baylor the rest of the season. I like to call it an emotional hedge.
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#99
Posted: 10/25/2009 10:58:18 AM

hoop...I played OKST too!  Actually went 11-4 on sides with a system trial run.  Too bad I only bet 1/4 unit on them.

Did you see any edge on the fav/ov this week?

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#100
Posted: 11/6/2009 12:44:37 PM
Let's Refresh this a little, if anyone is still interested in betting this 2 team parlay in college football, i had found a website that still does it.  Let me know if you are interested?  Send me a PM and i can refer you to that website.


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