| Author: |
[Systems & Strategies] Topic: NCAA Football System - 2 team parlays |
|
whitakp |
 View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 725
Location: |
#1 Posted: 9/4/2009 1:52:05 PM
Alright. Seen this posted before and I will post plays for tracking purposes. Many books won't take these bets, but my local will, so that may be the only way you can get away with putting them in. If anyone knows of any online books that will, I would love to know who...
System Details: NCAA Football - 2 Team Parlays
Real Simple and its been posted before I believe. Basically, when the spread of a College Football game is at least 1/3 of the totals, it qualifies as a play. Once you find a game that qualifies, you need to put in 2 parlays for the same game. These are 2 teamer parlays. One parlay would be on the favorite and the over. The 2nd parlay would be on the Dog and the under. 2 teamer pays out 2.5 to 1. You are guaranteed to lose 1 of these plays. Its a stinker if you lose both, but this is a pretty solid system. Don't have records from the past years, but know its amazing the numbers it produces. I may have some time this weekend to look...
E.G. (game from last year)
LSU @ Miss ST played on Aug 30th. LSU favs -19.5/Over closed at 45
Parlay #1 Lsu -19.5/Over 45 ---- $200 --- Winner -- pays out 2.5 to 1 --- so +$500
Parlay #2 Miss St +19.5/Under 45 -- $200 - Loser -- ($200)
Result = $500 - $200 ----> +$300
E.G. Last night play was Utah/Utah St. In this case, both plays were a loser (way to start the season).I will use closing lines for this example. Utah +20.5/ Over was 50
Parlay #1 - Utah +21.5/Over 50 --- $200 -- Loser
Parlay #2 - Utah St -21.5/Under 50 --- $200 - Loser
Result = ($400) |
|
quote |
|
whitakp |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 725
Location: |
#2 Posted: 9/4/2009 2:08:07 PM Week 1 Plays: $100 per parlay
Parlay 1) Navy +21.5 and under 46.5
Parlay 2) Ohio St -21.5 & Over 46.5
3) Akron +27 & Under 59.5
4) Penn St -27 & Over 59.5
5) BYU +22 & Under 66
6) Oklahoma -22 & over 66
7) MD +21 & Under 51
8) California -21 & Over 51
9) San Jose St +33 & Under 47.5
10) USC -33 & Over 47.5
11) San Diego St +19 & Under 48.5
12) UCLA -19 & Over 48.5
13) LSU -17.5 & Over 53
14) Washington +17.5 & Under 53
15) Fla Atl +22.5 & Under 61
16) Nebraska -22.5 & Over 61
17) Midd Tenn St +18 & Under 47.5
18) Clemson -18 & Over 47.5
19) UL Monroe +41.5 & Under 61.5
20) Texas -41.5 & Over 61.5
21) W KY +29.5 & Under 44
22) TEnn -29.5 & Over 44
23) Utah -20.5 & Over 50 -- Loser
24) Utah St +20.5 & Under 50 -- Loser
12 total games
$2400 total for 24 parlays (2 per game) @ $100 per parlay
Running numbers - if you were to finish 8-4 for example wagering $100 per parlay-----
8 wins x 250 (2.5:1 payout) = +$2000
8 losses x $100 = -$800
remember, you can't hit 2 parlays on the same game
$2000 - $800 = +$1200
4 total losses x $200 (total loss counts as losing both parlays) -- --> -$800
So an 8-4 record would yield +$400
0-2 so far...I am sure this will turn around though
|
|
quote |
|
whitakp |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 725
Location: |
#3 Posted: 9/4/2009 2:32:10 PM For those who don't want to do the math....here is what the payouts look like. Based on Wagering $100 per parlay.
Accounting the win column as a 1-1 record -- so 1 win = $250, 1 loss = $100 -- difference of +150. Accounting the loss column for losing both parlays of the same game -$200, which is what happened in the Utah/Utah St game last night. |
|
quote |
|
whitakp |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 725
Location: |
#4 Posted: 9/4/2009 2:34:25 PM W L Result
1 0 $150
1 1 -$50
1 2 -$250
1 3 -$450
1 4 -$650
1 5 -$850
2 0 $300
2 1 $100
2 2 -$100
2 3 -$300
2 4 -$500
2 5 -$700
3 0 $450
3 1 $250
3 2 $50
3 3 -$150
3 4 -$350
3 5 -$550
4 0 $600
4 1 $400
4 2 $200
4 3 $0
4 4 -$200
4 5 -$400
5 0 $750
5 1 $550
5 2 $350
5 3 $150
5 4 -$50
5 5 -$250
6 0 $900
6 1 $700
6 2 $500
6 3 $300
6 4 $100
6 5 -$100
7 0 $1,050
7 1 $850
7 2 $650
7 3 $450
7 4 $250
7 5 $50
8 0 $1,200
8 1 $1,000
8 2 $800
8 3 $600
8 4 $400
8 5 $200
9 0 $1,350
9 1 $1,150
9 2 $950
9 3 $750
9 4 $550
9 5 $350
10 0 $1,500
10 1 $1,300
10 2 $1,100
10 3 $900
10 4 $700
10 5 $500 |
|
quote |
|
PatrickBateman |
RSI  |
Rookie
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 970
Location: Vermont |
#5 Posted: 9/4/2009 2:46:10 PM I thought books do not allow this type of wagering? |
|
quote |
|
|
|
nolemonasses |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 1944
Location: Pakistan |
#6 Posted: 9/4/2009 2:51:26 PM That is a lot of work and wagering to win 500 bucks.
i'm assuming post #4 is results from last year? It just says results |
|
quote |
|
HECTAR |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 406
Location: |
#7 Posted: 9/4/2009 3:58:16 PM No nole, not from last year. He's showing you what profit you will have with the corresponding record. If you won 4 and lost 2 you would be up $200 so it looks like this 4 2 $200
If you win 10 and lost 5 you would still be up $500 -- 10 5 $500
Get it..... |
|
quote |
|
angelobruno |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Captain
Joined: May 2007
Posts: 7146
Location: Pennsylvania |
#8 Posted: 9/4/2009 4:25:14 PM i used this system like 2 yrs ago and it was money but didnt mess with it last yr ....most sites wont accept correlated parlays but i also use a local and he did .....its alot of hassle tho every week to look at all the games that would fit into system and be prepared for some weeks where you can lose your behind |
|
quote |
|
whitakp |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Rookie
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 725
Location: |
#9 Posted: 9/4/2009 4:59:31 PM
Yeah....the whole correlation thing stinks. Vegas always has the edge. I remember last year a gentleman posted that there 1 book that still does, but he did not reveal whom. I use a local who will take them. He will take anything. I will check out the records from last year and post... |
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI  |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#10 Posted: 9/11/2009 11:33:26 AM
oh boy....I posted this 2-3 years ago and made some big money in the first few weeks....as did a lot of people on here
we had about 5-6 books who still took it....
not to sound conceeded or anything but a lot of us went to the same 2 books and they caught on....
no there is basically no online book who will take it...
I don't know why I didn't think of this last year but am strongly thinking of saving up a little and using 2 local books...
one to bet the fave+overs
one to bet the dog+unders
The rule is 33%.....but after doing extensive research (which I don't have anymore ugh....it was all posted on here but I didn't keep a log on my computer -even if i did its long gone and fried)
sorry for rambling there....after doing research I found 40% is the money maker.....
you want to do it for lines over 40% -the profit margin jumps through the roof campared to playing the 30% games....
I had a system that found even better plays ranging in % but it narrowed down the best winners too....
maybe I will trakc this with you and see what we can do...
|
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#11 Posted: 9/11/2009 11:41:12 AM I narrowed it down a little....
39%
UCLA -W
40% and up
Ohio State -L
Penn State -L
Cal -W
Utah -L
60% and up
USC -W
Texas -L
Tenn -W
so I got 4 wins and 4 losses
my local payes 2 team parlays 290 from 110 bet
Still would have lost -160
|
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#12 Posted: 9/11/2009 11:50:03 AM oops....marked Penn State game wrong....
also I checked with my system of narrowing the games....they all fit under that as well....
I narrowed it down a little....
39%
UCLA -W
40% and up
Ohio State -L
Penn State -W
Cal -W
Utah -L
60% and up
USC -W
Texas -L
Tenn -W
so 5 wins at +180 = 900
then 3 losses at -220 = -660
$240 profit
big difference than the -160 
hmmm....lets see what we have on tap this weekend |
|
quote |
|
nolemonasses |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 1944
Location: Pakistan |
#13 Posted: 9/11/2009 1:16:47 PM My online book allows you to parlay side 'A' to the over in that same game.
But, I assume you mean they will not then let you parlay side 'B' to the under in that same game?
|
|
quote |
|
nolemonasses |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Veteran
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 1944
Location: Pakistan |
#14 Posted: 9/11/2009 1:33:23 PM Just did a test. I can make two separate parlays on the same game. Tonight's Colorado vs. Toledo.
I did a $1 parlay taking Colorado -3.5 and over 54.5.
I then did a $1 parlay taking Toledo +3.5 and under 54.5.
Both would pay out 2.6 to 1. Or my $1 would make $2.60.
Is this what you were talking about not being allowed to do?
I know this is not a qualifying game tonight, but I just wanted to do a real test. And it worked for me. |
|
quote |
|
UsaSurfer |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 289
Location: |
#15 Posted: 9/11/2009 2:30:49 PM I love hearing about a good system from time to time, but obviously its no good unless it has been back tested? Has anyone tested this over an extended period of time?
Also powerade or whitak, it seems like both of you have extensive experience with this. What is the rationale why this is a winning strategy? Why should the favorite and the over logically correlate with each other, and visa versa? |
|
quote |
|
coachnip13 |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 56
Location: |
#16 Posted: 9/11/2009 5:27:15 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by nolemonasses:
Just did a test. I can make two separate parlays on the same game. Tonight's Colorado vs. Toledo.
I did a $1 parlay taking Colorado -3.5 and over 54.5.
I then did a $1 parlay taking Toledo +3.5 and under 54.5.
Both would pay out 2.6 to 1. Or my $1 would make $2.60.
Is this what you were talking about not being allowed to do?
I know this is not a qualifying game tonight, but I just wanted to do a real test. And it worked for me.
It will let you make those wagers because that game doesn't qualify. Try a qualifying game and it won't let you. |
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#17 Posted: 9/11/2009 8:59:26 PM QUOTE Originally Posted by UsaSurfer:
I love hearing about a good system from time to time, but obviously its no good unless it has been back tested? Has anyone tested this over an extended period of time?
Also powerade or whitak, it seems like both of you have extensive experience with this. What is the rationale why this is a winning strategy? Why should the favorite and the over logically correlate with each other, and visa versa?
like I said earlier I don't have any of the stats anymore....but it was logged back 2-3 years and made money every year...it was 4-5K based on 100 bets |
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#18 Posted: 9/12/2009 11:06:09 AM looking at this week....actually last week narrowing it down the Texas and Tenn games wouldn't have counted since they were "ADDED GAMES"
so the profit would have been +280 |
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#19 Posted: 9/12/2009 11:52:11 AM 40%-ers
Northwestern -21 52
Boston College -21 45.5
Texas Tech -25 65
50%-ers
Florida -36 61
Penn State -28.5 50.5
Texas -32 56
70%
Boise State -37.5 52.5
|
|
quote |
|
powerade |
RSI |
MVP
Joined: Mar 2007
Posts: 17952
Location: New York |
#20 Posted: 9/12/2009 3:25:45 PM oops....forgot one....
44%
Virginia Tech -19.5 44
looks like a winner so far, didn't play the Northwestern myself because it was 40% on the dot which turned out to be a loss
Penn State game was a winner  |
|
quote |
|
JMon |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 3071
Location: Kansas |
#21 Posted: 9/12/2009 4:21:35 PM Would Auburn -15.5 over 47 be one? 33% My online book is allowing the parlay |
|
quote |
|
yankees2k6 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
All-Star
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11362
Location: New York |
#22 Posted: 9/12/2009 4:27:46 PM  If this begins to work I will certainly give this a shot... What is a good game to test and see if my local will take?? TY
|
|
quote |
|
yankees2k6 |
View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes | |
All-Star
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11362
Location: New York |
#23 Posted: 9/12/2009 4:35:47 PM
|
|
quote |
|
JMon |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 3071
Location: Kansas |
#24 Posted: 9/12/2009 4:45:15 PM I picked that up as a system play as well
I have Boise state -37.5 over 52.5 71%
Penn state and V tech were winners today |
|
quote |
|
JMon |
View Space | Friends | Playbook | |
Banned
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 3071
Location: Kansas |
#25 Posted: 9/12/2009 4:49:55 PM Tx Tech -28 o/64 44%
Mizzou -20 o/56.6 35% (I think the new system is over 40% now)
Alabama -33.5 o/50.5 66%
S. fla -24.5 o/51 48% |
|
quote |