Modified Morrison NHL System

Forum: Systems & Strategies Page 33 of 35 «  31 32 33 34 35   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Modified Morrison NHL System
SKiLLsSoLoN PM SKiLLsSoLoN
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quote#801
Posted: 10/12/2010 10:35:27 PM
That Colorado ML was nice!
smdio PM smdio
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quote#802
Posted: 10/13/2010 7:39:18 AM

Atlanta had it, lost on a friggin EN goal with 30 seconds left

We'll be fine though, keep the faith

Sports_Rookie PM Sports_Rookie
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quote#803
Posted: 10/19/2010 2:48:19 PM
bump
smdio PM smdio
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quote#804
Posted: 10/19/2010 4:10:33 PM

This system is doing well.  I've been tracking it in my other thread

"NHL Road Chase"  in this forum

TVWIN PM TVWIN
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quote#805
Posted: 3/3/2011 5:21:48 PM
TVWIN PM TVWIN
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quote#806
Posted: 5/20/2011 4:36:06 PM
SUPEREAGLE43 PM SUPEREAGLE43
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quote#807
Posted: 9/13/2011 10:52:41 PM
Smitler, you have experience with this.  Without me having to go back and read through this thread, was this a good one with LaBouchere?
ejackson PM ejackson
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quote#808
Posted: 9/15/2011 2:17:35 PM
When a team goes on 3 or more game road trip, play that team for the first two games (if they win the first game, the series is done) on the ML. If you lose both, the series is done. Last year this simple system made about 60 units of profit, two years ago over a 100 units. I used two line labby. 
SUPEREAGLE43 PM SUPEREAGLE43
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quote#809
Posted: 9/16/2011 6:05:50 PM
What is juice like on that ejackson?
ejackson PM ejackson
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quote#810
Posted: 9/17/2011 8:38:09 AM

You will have to excuse me, but i don't know what you mean with the "juice"? Sorry, i'm from overseas.

Snappa PM Snappa
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quote#811
Posted: 9/17/2011 10:15:18 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ejackson:

You will have to excuse me, but i don't know what you mean with the "juice"? Sorry, i'm from overseas.

Juice, or vig.,is basically a comission the book charges for the privelage of making a wager.  In the NFL, for instance, if you bet the spread on a game, you will pay $110 to win $100.  In other wagers, like an NHL wager, the juice is factored in.  If you bet a favorite, you will pay extra because that team is more likely to win.  That is the downside of betting on heavy favorites.  Let's say you bet on an NHL team heavily favored to win.  Your bet comes with a lot of "juice", say -180.  That means that in order to win $100, you have to put up $180.  Overall, I've heard that at legitimate Las Vegas books charge about 4.55% "juice".  That is one reason it is so tough to be a consistent winner at this game.
nghia1973 PM nghia1973
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quote#812
Posted: 9/17/2011 8:33:56 PM
anyone playing this system this year?
ejackson PM ejackson
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quote#813
Posted: 9/18/2011 7:58:57 AM
Thanks for the explanation. Basically is pretty straight forward. Most of the time you are playing road dogs, so the odd varies from +100 to +200. Some times you play a road favourite - last year i think the biggest road fav was around -150, but that is more an exception than a rule. This system has its up and downs but its simple and its producing results.
HECTAR PM HECTAR
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quote#814
Posted: 9/18/2011 9:39:19 AM

I don't see the point of waiting for a 3 game road trip if you are only betting the first 2 games.  Why not do a 2 game road trip?

Also I only look up one team Vncouver and they had a -225 for the first game as a road fav.  I''m sure there are more then that greather then -150

ejackson PM ejackson
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quote#815
Posted: 9/23/2011 12:22:14 PM

I don't know about a two game chase. I suppose somebody backtested the system and a two game chase doesn't produce results.

About -150 road fav? I went back to my spreadsheet and this is what i got. Last year i was writing down the lines for all system plays from october 8 to december 23. Than i quit for aboz 3 months and started again on march 10 to march 31. From 119 system plays i've got 30 road favs (once i played NJ +1,5 at -145) at average odds of -119. 89 system games were road dogs at average price at +139. The biggest road fav was TB -145 at NYI  -and they lost, the biggest dog was ATL +214 at PHIL and they won.

I know that 3 months of info is missing but just for the info, here is a breakdown:

from -154 to -140 we were 3-1

from -139 to -130 we were 2-2

from -129 to -120 we were 4-1

from -119 to -110 we were 6-1

from -109 to -101 we were 3-7

from 100 to 109 we were 6-5

from 110 to 119 we were 6-8

from 120 to 129 we were 7-9

from 130 to 139 we were 1-12 (wow)

from 140 to 149 we were 4-6

from 150 to 159 we were 2-3

from 160 to 169 we were 2-1

from 170 to 179 we were 3-5

from 180 to 199 we were 3-3

from 200 to 214 we were 1-2

Like I said before - on a two line labby this system last year produced 62 units of profit, two years ago over a 100 units.

 

speedemon PM speedemon
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quote#816
Posted: 9/29/2011 2:43:36 PM
Does anyone here play the system this season?
Tyler2834 PM Tyler2834
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quote#817
Posted: 10/2/2011 11:20:43 PM
Can someone please explain this system to me in the simplest form possible.  My head hurts trying to read all of this.
SUPEREAGLE43 PM SUPEREAGLE43
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quote#818
Posted: 10/3/2011 7:55:30 AM
See post #30.  It doesnt get more simplified than that.
Tyler2834 PM Tyler2834
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quote#819
Posted: 10/3/2011 7:08:48 PM
How is it possible to be favored on the money line like (-130) and dogs on the puck line like (+1.5)?

Also, is this system money line or puck line betting or am I missing something?
SUPEREAGLE43 PM SUPEREAGLE43
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quote#820
Posted: 10/3/2011 11:11:35 PM
You are missing something.  It says if your team is an underdog you play the + puckline.  If your team is the favorite you play the moneyline.
Tyler2834 PM Tyler2834
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quote#821
Posted: 10/4/2011 12:58:48 AM
Ok I get it now.  However, I find it hard to believe that a road favorite comes up with a win 90% of the time within the first two road games.  It the success rate based solely of W/L from the bets and something else, because some on there numbers like 90-3-1 record are crazy.
BBQGreggy PM BBQGreggy
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quote#822
Posted: 10/4/2011 12:27:15 PM
Just curious if anyone has tried this system by betting the underdog on the ML instead of the +1.5.  Seems like you could save a ton of juice, but would probably incur a few more losses. 
jv040 PM jv040
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quote#823
Posted: 10/4/2011 2:56:25 PM
last year there was a filter that was used I mbelieve it was don't play against teams that were top 3 rpi.  don't play the bottem 3 teams in straight up wins. I don't know the results. does anyone have last year results?
Tyler2834 PM Tyler2834
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quote#824
Posted: 10/4/2011 4:39:54 PM
How is it determined which team is listed as A,B, or C?
pistol589 PM pistol589
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quote#825
Posted: 10/4/2011 7:19:22 PM
does anyone have the Puckline closing lines for the prior years? I'm really just looking for the lines for the trips that ended in 3 losses.

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