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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Modified Morrison NHL System
KongKiller send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
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#26
Posted: 8/6/2009 5:51:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kevnbs:

Just to review, this system is to play against any team going on a 3+ game road trip? 

Thanks in advance.

Kevnb

Yes Kev, but remember, you must play the +PL if they are dogs.  The point of this system is the age old theory that when teams start a road trip they alway come out guns blazing on there first couple of games.  even if they lose, its usually only by one, especially if they are dogs.

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#27
Posted: 8/6/2009 7:17:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KongKiller:

Yes Kev, but remember, you must play the +PL if they are dogs.  The point of this system is the age old theory that when teams start a road trip they alway come out guns blazing on there first couple of games.  even if they lose, its usually only by one, especially if they are dogs.

So it's just a road trip and nothing to do with all of the games being out of conference?

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#28
Posted: 8/6/2009 10:02:02 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Lippsman:

So it's just a road trip and nothing to do with all of the games being out of conference?

Exactly Lipps.  I have 4 years of backtesting proving very strong results if you play the +PL on dogs too.  Very high "A" game percentage, and the "B" game percentage is sick!!

 

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#29
Posted: 8/6/2009 10:24:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KongKiller:

Exactly Lipps.  I have 4 years of backtesting proving very strong results if you play the +PL on dogs too.  Very high "A" game percentage, and the "B" game percentage is sick!!

And no filtering out of crap teams ?  Say ones that are in the bottom 10 of win percentage or bottom 10 of road win percentage ?

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#30
Posted: 8/7/2009 12:29:40 AM
Kong..............
 
So let me get this correct and hopefully kill 2 birds with 1 stone for me and Lipps............
 
They system is played with ALL teams and when any 1 team begins on the road with a 3 game series {Only} You are to play them if they are favored on the Money line and if they are dogs + the puck line, Also you only wager on the 1st 2 games of their road trip ??????  
 
Would that be the correct way ????
 
Thank you ....................BK
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#31
Posted: 8/7/2009 12:59:14 AM
Kong
 
On another note. If one was to play this system as a martingale considering the high % of wins, wouldnt you come out ahead Huge ????
 
Thanks
 
BK
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#32
Posted: 8/7/2009 2:04:35 AM
Hey Kong, isnt the system better wit betting on c games cuase on the other thread u said that the record wit c bets is 163 wins wit 3 loses... so using labouchere wit that would make u tons of money wouldnt it?
also u said wit this new system u had 17 loses so even wit this being wit 2 games instead of 3, isnt the old system better?
 
- jus wondering cause im still lil confused wit this new modified system
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#33
Posted: 8/7/2009 7:14:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigkeith:

Kong..............
 
So let me get this correct and hopefully kill 2 birds with 1 stone for me and Lipps............
 
They system is played with ALL teams and when any 1 team begins on the road with a 3 game series {Only} You are to play them if they are favored on the Money line and if they are dogs + the puck line, Also you only wager on the 1st 2 games of their road trip ??????  
 
Would that be the correct way ????
 
Thank you ....................BK

All teams guys.  I am still working on filters, but the problem is that most of the really bad road teams were all "A" winner throughout the past 4 years.  It was the good teams like Carolina and Detroit where the losses came in.  Although Tampa had 3 or 4 losses one year, which would be catastrophic.  But that is why I am only going to Play A or B games and labouchere it.  If one team doesn't win either game, I just increase my bet on the next series until the line is cleared.  When dealing with a 90% win rate, hopefully it will go smoothly.

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#34
Posted: 8/7/2009 7:18:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GamblrzAnonyms:

Hey Kong, isnt the system better wit betting on c games cuase on the other thread u said that the record wit c bets is 163 wins wit 3 loses... so using labouchere wit that would make u tons of money wouldnt it?
also u said wit this new system u had 17 loses so even wit this being wit 2 games instead of 3, isnt the old system better?
 
- jus wondering cause im still lil confused wit this new modified system

The reason why I switched my thinking to just A and B games is the fact that from last year had a great record, but the previous 3 were not that good.  Before last season we averaged 8 losses per season.  My goal is to take the high% plays which are always the A or B games and use the modified labouchere to money manage.  As long as you bet proportional to you bankrol, you will always be ok and profit.  I recomend your starting unit be 1.5%-2% of your bankroll.

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#35
Posted: 8/7/2009 7:20:25 AM
Another thing guys, I am still working on filters, and no RPI.  Until daily RPI stats are available, the are useless.  If I can get the 90% to 95%, by trimming fat, I will sure do it.
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#36
Posted: 8/7/2009 8:03:44 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KongKiller:

Another thing guys, I am still working on filters, and no RPI.  Until daily RPI stats are available, the are useless.  If I can get the 90% to 95%, by trimming fat, I will sure do it.

I been working on something similar, very time consuming I have only done 3 seasons so far. Going back and doing each season manually for both filtered and non-filtered takes me about 6-8 hours per season.

Good news: The winning % on a 3 game chase is very good, showing one loss for each of the past couple of years.

Bad news: Your number of plays from non-filtered to filtered is cut to about 1/3 of the scheduled series. Approx 60-65 plays a year from the original 150/160+. The high juices can also be an issue, however if you have solid MM this should be of little concern to you. Like a friend once said... "Theres no juice when you win"...

GMSI 

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#37
Posted: 8/7/2009 8:18:07 AM
Side note: concidence or not, each of the losses in the last 2 years both came in October on the teams 2nd road trip and backup goalies started games in both series.
 
Not trying to justify, only an observation when looking back. Im sure some wins came with backup goalies in nets as well.
 
GMSI
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#38
Posted: 8/7/2009 9:09:22 AM
Hey GMSI, I hand wrote most of my info.  Let me clean it up before I email it to you.
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#39
Posted: 8/7/2009 9:50:24 AM
Kong,
 
Nice work on this, will you be posting your plays during the NHL season?
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#40
Posted: 8/7/2009 6:59:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by PatrickBateman:

Kong,
 
Nice work on this, will you be posting your plays during the NHL season?

Hey Patrick,

I am going to try man.  It just depends on how much time I have.  Football season is my busiest time of the year, but I am very interested in putting this system in place.  And until you test it publicly, you don't really have garbage. 

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#41
Posted: 8/7/2009 8:37:12 PM
Kong
 
How would you do on this system wagering it Martingale style ???
 
I AM thinking with just A and B wagers why would it not work ???
 
Thanks
 
BK
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#42
Posted: 8/7/2009 9:51:24 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigkeith:

Kong
 
How would you do on this system wagering it Martingale style ???
 
I AM thinking with just A and B wagers why would it not work ???
 
Thanks
 
BK

Hmmn. It probably would not work that good man.  Lets use 2008-2009 season as an example.  By just playing A and B games you would have 149 wins.  That would leave you with 17 losses.  Now 149 and 17 is not bad, but remember we are playing with high juice here, so 1 loss could mean up to 5 units.  And also last season was an excellent season for this.  The prior 3 had even more losses.  Stick with the modified labouchere and bankroll mangement and you will easily bank 100 units over the season.

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#43
Posted: 8/8/2009 1:27:51 AM
Kong.......
 
When you say the middle Labby system are you refering to the Latest 2008 research system in that link on page 1 of this thread ??? I just want to confirm which labby you are using.
 
Thanks
 
BK
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#44
Posted: 8/8/2009 5:14:23 AM
Hey kong thanks for answering, yea 8 loses would ruin ur bankroll if u were betting on a 3 game series... hope u hav time to post ur plays... also u wouldnt hav a nfl system would u?
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#45
Posted: 8/8/2009 8:48:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bigkeith:

Kong.......
 
When you say the middle Labby system are you refering to the Latest 2008 research system in that link on page 1 of this thread ??? I just want to confirm which labby you are using.
 
Thanks
 
BK

Hey Big Keith, I think PSIC and decided on using the 2nd on from the bottom.  It's aggresive, but not too aggressive.

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#46
Posted: 8/8/2009 8:49:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by GamblrzAnonyms:

Hey kong thanks for answering, yea 8 loses would ruin ur bankroll if u were betting on a 3 game series... hope u hav time to post ur plays... also u wouldnt hav a nfl system would u?

Man that New JM NFL system will be surfacing on a thread today or tommorow.  Let's look into that, it should be fun!

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#47
Posted: 8/8/2009 8:58:36 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by KongKiller:

Hmmn. It probably would not work that good man.  Lets use 2008-2009 season as an example.  By just playing A and B games you would have 149 wins.  That would leave you with 17 losses.  Now 149 and 17 is not bad, but remember we are playing with high juice here, so 1 loss could mean up to 5 units.  And also last season was an excellent season for this.  The prior 3 had even more losses.  Stick with the modified labouchere and bankroll mangement and you will easily bank 100 units over the season.

damn that sounds better every time you say it Kong...

cant wait for october and to get started....i think the key is exactly what you say...start small and not get too greedy out of the gate...

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#48
Posted: 8/9/2009 4:29:42 AM
sounds and looks good kong!
My question is...when it comes to using the labouchere method, it is not easy to measure its success with units. If it was martingale, its easy as every chase will yield a unit profit when it hits.
With the modified labouchere, i can lose the A game, be down a unit. then hit the B game and profit only half a unit.
Also, if you choose to increase the numbers of each line after clearing X amount of lines, doesn't your unit size change as well?
So i guess my question is...if your line is 10-10-10-10, does it mean your unit size is 20? So according to past results, using labouchere will yield $2000.00 using 10-10-10-10 lines?
 
i would also look into using the modified labouchere system for top home teams on home stands as well.
keep up the good work! 
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#49
Posted: 8/19/2009 12:37:16 PM
Looking forward to this season starting, and starting my first ever full season of sports investing.  Can anyone recommend the sportsbook for me to be using this strategy through?

Thanks,
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#50
Posted: 8/19/2009 2:27:22 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by superskid:

Looking forward to this season starting, and starting my first ever full season of sports investing.  Can anyone recommend the sportsbook for me to be using this strategy through?

Thanks,

bet jamacia , matchbook or the greek are all good books

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