Simple 4/4 system

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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Simple 4/4 system
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/9/2009 3:47:38 AM
hello

this is my first try of a system. soo simple that i'm sure someone is using already. 

for me good system is the one that will get e to a certain goal during a season. in my case it's to win 20u (humble start) and not to lose my bank in the process.

ah... the 4/4 thing...

bet the home team that has more than 4 wins in their last 10 games overall against the team that has less then 4 wins in their last 10 games overall 

HL10>4 and VTL10<4 

only other modifier is that home team isn't in a bad streak. L4 or L5 in a row

these are the numbers i got from backtesting. i always start with the month of may
columns are:
season /end profit / w-l / w perc. /max. profit/ min. profit/ date of achieving 20u/ date of busting (-20u)/ longest w streak/ longest l streak

2000   -3,94  189-134  58,51%   3,92   -13,22       0     0    9    6
2001  28,70  189-112  62,79%  30,76   -12,62   909     0  12    7
2002 -33,65  151-121  55,51%    7,30   -44,20      0  614  10    7
2003   -2,87  167-110  60,29%    3,13   -25,57      0  524  12    6
2004  26,59  172-93    64,91%  31,67     -3,92  707      0  15    4
2005    3,40  144-96    60,00%  20,18      0,00  605      0  11  10
2006  15,37  171-106  61,73%   27,74    -6,41  921       0  10   7
2007  19,08  147-91    61,76%   21,34    -8,45  901       0  12   5
2008  31,42  163-91    64,17%   32,92    -2,35  914       0  17   5
2009   4,50      9-3      75,00%     4,50    -0,05     0       0    3   1

with friday games i think it's 11-3 for 2009 with +6.5u. haven't done proper math for that yet


as you can see 2000-2003 wasn't that good. rubbish except 2001.
but since 2004 things are looking much better 

good enough not to seriously dent the bank and to reach a goal of 20u safely enough.

there could be nice long streaks with this one and some kind of mild progression could be used to get some more value

i tested it as a chase system for series (that's how i got to this 4/4 actually) but most of these games are heavily chalked and 1 loss could cost you dearly. example:  sea 2005 last series before all-star break... would be a 70u wipeout 

i'd appreciate if someone could backtest this results, just to be sure.
i will be 'fooling around' with some advanced statistics for a better system and must be sure that what i've done here computes well 

i won't be posting picks for this one. maybe i'll update how it's progressing if there are interested parties

hope i'll get my 20u 

gla



hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/9/2009 4:36:07 AM
MLB system... i forgot to mention that
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/14/2009 9:13:57 AM
progress report... nobody actually cares about
+13.4u  
20-5   w-l

today:
brewers, cubs, rangers and blue jays

if we go strictly by the system...
not sure if opposing CC and king Felix is wise but those will be counted in the system records

jhudd70 PM jhudd70
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Posted: 5/14/2009 6:56:10 PM
If you keep winning 20 of every 25 plays, you'll definetly get some interest. If you could post daily, it would be easy for eveyone to see how well your system works. I see you're already 3-0 today, pending Toronto.
swahili PM swahili
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Posted: 5/14/2009 10:15:30 PM
well on your way to 20 units
sports_Network PM sports_Network
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Posted: 5/15/2009 8:27:09 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jhudd70:

If you keep winning 20 of every 25 plays, you'll definetly get some interest. If you could post daily, it would be easy for eveyone to see how well your system works. I see you're already 3-0 today, pending Toronto.

                                             

sports_Network PM sports_Network
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Posted: 5/15/2009 8:43:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by hrabri_pero:

 

 

 

bet the home team that has more than 4 wins in their last 10 games overall against the team that has less then 4 wins in their last 10 games overall 

HL10>4 and VTL10<4 

only other modifier is that home team isn't in a bad streak. L4 or L5 in a row

these are the numbers i got from backtesting. i always start with the month of may
columns are:
season /end profit / w-l / w perc. /max. profit/ min. profit/ date of achieving 20u/ date of busting (-20u)/ longest w streak/ longest l streak

2000   -3,94  189-134  58,51%   3,92   -13,22       0     0    9    6
2001  28,70  189-112  62,79%  30,76   -12,62   909     0  12    7
2002 -33,65  151-121  55,51%    7,30   -44,20      0  614  10    7
2003   -2,87  167-110  60,29%    3,13   -25,57      0  524  12    6
2004  26,59  172-93    64,91%  31,67     -3,92  707      0  15    4
2005    3,40  144-96    60,00%  20,18      0,00  605      0  11  10
2006  15,37  171-106  61,73%   27,74    -6,41  921       0  10   7
2007  19,08  147-91    61,76%   21,34    -8,45  901       0  12   5
2008  31,42  163-91    64,17%   32,92    -2,35  914       0  17   5
2009   4,50      9-3      75,00%     4,50    -0,05     0       0    3   1


 


 
 

 
 

 

 
 

 

 
 



 average mean 62%+  stats don't lie, this system has already proven to be successful over the past 10 years, good research

hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/15/2009 8:45:53 AM
YTD: +15,68  23-6
yesterday +2.2 3-1

thanks for the support :)

today's games are

TOR -120
ATL -165


hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/15/2009 9:13:36 AM
checking two numbers every day...   hard, hard work but someone's gotta do it 

it won't be sweet ride all the way, but i'm pretty sure i'll achieve my goal 

as soon as i get my code for 2009 play by play stats up and running i'm taking my chances with base runs and runs created.  just backtesting that for now
thanks sports_Network for bringing that to our attention
Controller PM Controller
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Posted: 5/15/2009 1:49:36 PM
GL hrabri :) 
Controller PM Controller
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Posted: 5/16/2009 7:13:38 AM
2-0
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/16/2009 10:48:59 AM
YTD: +17.68u 25-6
yesterday +2u  2-0

today  ATL & TOR  again
swahili PM swahili
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Posted: 5/16/2009 3:43:08 PM
toronto winner !
rman1049 PM rman1049
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Posted: 5/16/2009 4:10:58 PM
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/17/2009 5:12:07 AM
YTD: +17.44u 26-7
yesterday: -0.24u 1-1

today:
ATL -200
TOR -240
TB -145
kingofny PM kingofny
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Posted: 5/17/2009 7:54:07 PM
3-0  nice job brother //// will be following from now on .... great job ... whos next ???
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/18/2009 2:22:53 AM
YTD: +19.44u 28-7
yesterday: +2u 2-0.... with  ATL washed out

today

ATL
TOR

well... i'm surprised this took off with a 80% hit rate 
but still this is a small sample and when i reach 20u maybe i'll continue this with a smaller unit size

this could still pick decent 62% for the rest of the season
sports_Network PM sports_Network
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Posted: 5/18/2009 4:26:53 AM
your 28-7, powered @ apx...80%/ correct unit management at this point should be to progress your play, based on the success ratio your 20 unit goal should now be classified as step one, you should continue with adjusted management to achieve a new goal of 100 units. Remember, unit management, overpowers winning % in successful handicapping..take full advantage
MONEYshotS PM MONEYshotS
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Posted: 5/18/2009 4:18:24 PM
Tor =

Atlanta pending.  BOL
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/19/2009 4:15:48 AM
YTD: +18.44 29-8
yesterday: -1u 1-1

i was over 20u with jays victory... but atlanta set me back 2u

no plays for today
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/22/2009 4:32:27 PM
STL cardinals tonight
MONEYshotS PM MONEYshotS
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Posted: 5/22/2009 11:33:13 PM
Is there any reason why this will not continue to hit at @ 60% or better?  This seems to be working very well.  It is very logical.  Its as simple as you said it was.

Do you mind contnuing to track right here even after you have won your 20 unit?

Thanksfor sharing it with us.
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/23/2009 2:19:37 AM
YTD: +19.44  30-8
yesterday: 1-0   

satruday 23
STL
DET


i'll keep posting. maybe this is gonna be a record season. topping the 2008

comparing the numbers from previous years  63% for the rest of the season is my most optimistic estimate.  (nightmareish 52% is also a possibility)

i tested some progressive unit size options and for me it's still inconclusive yet... can't find clear advantage of increasing either after a bad period or after a good period... 

this is a simple system/trend  and for now my MM will stay simple as well
MONEYshotS PM MONEYshotS
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Posted: 5/23/2009 4:18:13 PM
St.L =

BOL on Det.
hrabri_pero PM hrabri_pero
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Posted: 5/24/2009 4:47:24 AM
YTD: +19.09  31-9
yestarday: -.35   1-1

new rule for this system!!! dont bet against Marquis and Rox :p
again they postponed getting cleanly to 20 units

today
STL again

i hope  it's in the cards for 4/4 to reach 20u goal today
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