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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: MLB system releases...
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#51
Posted: 5/2/2009 3:30:56 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

It seems that after one month of baseball, teams appear to be scoring more than as compared with last season? Like the majority of the games seems to go overs (if not high)! You guys think batters are becoming more dominant now or game hasn't changes since the past 3-4  years?

sometimes pitching kicks in early, this year the trend appears to be hitting and runs scored, based on pitching era's that will change as the season progresses, "that's baseball" which plays more games per season than any other sport, anywhere!

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#52
Posted: 5/2/2009 12:19:20 PM
MLB formulated system plays Saturday 02/05/09 Phase IX
 
                              Braves-121
                              Pirates-102
                              Orioles+124
 
                              Mets vs Philies OVER 10
                              Royals vs Twins UNDER 9
                              WhiteSox vs Rangers OVER 11
quote
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#53
Posted: 5/3/2009 12:46:47 PM
nothing for today sports?
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#54
Posted: 5/3/2009 1:24:13 PM
MLB formulated system plays Sunday 03/05/09  Phase X
 
                                       Brewers-138
                                       Yankees-143
 
                                        Royals vs Twins UNDER 9
                                        WhiteSox vs Rangers UNDER 11
 
 
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#55
Posted: 5/4/2009 10:18:21 AM
Assessment on Base_Runs system/formula Phase's 6 thru 10 ...
 
                                 phase six 5-3
                                 phase seven 2-2
                                 phase eight 3-5
                                 phase nine 3-3
                                 phase ten 2-1..one ppd Yankees,scratched
 
The system has leveled to what is refered to in sports handicapping as "Progression/Regression Theorem" the next five phases, with continued variable additions, will determine it's "true" success ratio, which now sits at 62% for all ten phases combined, down from 71% for phases 1 thru 5. which can be reviewed on page two...The strongest, and most consistent display of production, is the systems 12-2 record of combined RL and Dog play..With Phase eight being the only dis-advantage phase of the ten(3-5)....Objective of Base_Runs system experiment, is to bring a success ratio of 70%+ based on 100 plays/instances..It's now at 52 and counting, with plays posted on a daily basis since it's conception, using Covers.com as a documentation tool of verification.....
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#56
Posted: 5/4/2009 11:17:30 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

Assessment on Base_Runs system/formula Phase's 6 thru 10 ...
 
                                 phase six 5-3
                                 phase seven 2-2
                                 phase eight 3-5
                                 phase nine 3-3
                                 phase ten 2-1..one ppd Yankees,scratched
 
The system has leveled to what is refered to in sports handicapping as "Progression/Regression Theorem" the next five phases, with continued variable additions, will determine it's "true" success ratio, which now sits at 62% for all ten phases combined, down from 71% for phases 1 thru 5. which can be reviewed on page two...The strongest, and most consistent display of production, is the systems 12-2 record of combined RL and Dog play..With Phase eight being the only dis-advantage phase of the ten(3-5)....Objective of Base_Runs system experiment, is to bring a success ratio of 70%+ based on 100 plays/instances..It's now at 52 and counting, with plays posted on a daily basis since it's conception, using Covers.com as a documentation tool of verification.....

Not bashing here Network but I have Dog and RL play at 9 - 3...(it appears you have counted Oak +124 on 4/25 as a win, they lost the game) and I can only see 12 plays total not 14...please advise...

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#57
Posted: 5/4/2009 3:11:09 PM
manifesto, your correct, A's+124 on 4/25 lost, and I did not count that game in the 12-2 assessment, the A's were included the next day with the Pirates on  double RL wins 5/26...as explained earlier in the thread, the system takes no responsibility in x-inning games, win or lose, the sabermetric stats are geared for 9 innings only, beyond that, it's pure baseball..re:Marlins vs Mets x-innings
also on the totals in particular, the line fluxuates from .5 to 1 during the time of the published plays they would be wins in some books, and losses in others, if these were actual wagered picks, their would be line shopping, and unit management incorporated, (which will come later) as you fully understand by following this experiment from it's conception, keeping the stats pure, and error free, are vital in progressing it's success ratio. Assessment has to be judged in some form, whether it's 12 wins, or advantages..2 losses or dis-advantages. 10-3...whatever...your input is far from bashing, but welcomed, you brought up a very good point, which needed a explanation, and understanding for those that trac system play, and experiments..your insight, and questions are always welcomed....best regards
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#58
Posted: 5/4/2009 4:38:49 PM
MLB formulated system plays Monday 04/05/09  Phase XI
 
                              Marlins-149
                              Cubs-181
 
                              Indians vs Bluejays OVER 9
                              Twins vs Tigers UNDER 9
                              Rockies vs Padres OVER 8
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#59
Posted: 5/4/2009 11:06:10 PM
Could you from now on (or from the start) calculate profit made per day if somebody bets $100 per game or however your systems works.
 
I guess it could be "appealing" for those people who follow this thread and if your system is successful, you may become profitable :)
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#60
Posted: 5/4/2009 11:08:22 PM
Or least provide odds so people could do their calculations
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#61
Posted: 5/5/2009 5:50:42 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

Or least provide odds so people could do their calculations

Odds have been provided on every play since the threads conception.. MLB is a ML(moneyline) and RL(runline) sport, The odds you are familiar with are "Asian" or fractions, and are not included in betting baseball in America; re: so when you see Cubs-181, the -181 is the 'odds' for a Cubs win. Which means the Cubs are the "favorite"..meaning, you must lay $181.00 to win $100.00 ..The tables are reversed when betting the "Dog" to get a clear understanding, go to,  ladbrokes.com   On the home page in the upper left hand corner you will see ODDS, american,fractions,decimals.. click your desired odds, then click baseball(MLB) you will then have the entire format presented to you for understanding, and wagering purposes..didn't we discuss this earlier in the thread?  If you need continued assistance, I truly understand where your coming from; in NZ they use all Asian lines, even for MLB, that was my reason for recommending ladbrokes.com ..where you could bet the Asian line on MLB, or the American Money line, you have that option...best regards

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#62
Posted: 5/5/2009 8:28:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by NewZealandPride:

Could you from now on (or from the start) calculate profit made per day if somebody bets $100 per game or however your systems works.
 
I guess it could be "appealing" for those people who follow this thread and if your system is successful, you may become profitable :)

that would be the decision of the individual handicapper, and his incorporation of "money/unit management" depending on the "strength" of the play. and the amount of units he would wager per play, in essence, a capper using correct management, could go 4-4 and generate more profitable units, then say someone using the exact same plays, going 6-2, and using in-correct money management skills....I have addressed this issue through out the thread.. Money Management, over powers Winning % .........

I will give you an example, based on yesterdays posted system plays (Phase IX) :

 

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#63
Posted: 5/5/2009 9:10:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

MLB formulated system plays Monday 04/05/09  Phase XI
 
                              Marlins-149 Win /bet:3 units, profit 2units ...
                              Cubs-181 Win /bet:2 units, profit 1unit
 
                              Indians vs Bluejays OVER 9 Win/2units
                              Twins vs Tigers UNDER 9 Win/1unit
                              Rockies vs Padres OVER 8 Win/2units
 
hypothetically, if you wagered on the system, you would have gone 5-0 , and made a $8,000 profit (+8units) betting each game individually.....
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#64
Posted: 5/5/2009 2:36:21 PM
MLB formulated system plays Tuesday 05/05/09  Phase XII
 
                                     Yankees-117
                                     Devilrays-183
 
                                     Giants vs Cubs UNDER 8
                                     Reds vs Marlins UNDER 8
                                     Mets vs Braves OVER 9
                                     Phillies vs Cardinals OVER 8.5
                                     LAA vs A's UNDER 9
 
 
 
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#65
Posted: 5/5/2009 4:54:54 PM
Network, are you going to provide unit recommendations as shown in the previous thread?
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#66
Posted: 5/5/2009 6:24:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

that would be the decision of the individual handicapper, and his incorporation of "money/unit management" depending on the "strength" of the play. and the amount of units he would wager per play, in essence, a capper using correct management, could go 4-4 and generate more profitable units, then say someone using the exact same plays, going 6-2, and using in-correct money management skills....I have addressed this issue through out the thread.. Money Management, over powers Winning % .........

I will give you an example, based on yesterdays posted system plays (Phase XI) :

 

          "manefesto", that was an example on behalf of NewZealandPride to give him understanding of management(read above) so I posted exactly how I played the games, in terms of units, and game strength...for those who are tracking with interest, and have serious intent, but lack experience, and understanding in attaching units; I would provide this information as a courtesy to them only, based on their involvement....As the experiment approaches it's 100 game finalisation.......So your answer is Yes..

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#67
Posted: 5/5/2009 8:52:40 PM
SN....Twins Tigers un 9 from Monday was a push 
               Minn won  7 - 2
 
Also...can't seem to find your earlier posts where you explain how your system works?I would appreciate if you could post the link if it still exists.
  This is my 1st year betting MLB and never realized how interesting and profitable it can be.Thanks for posting your system plays and the time (40mins a game,wow!!!)you spend doing this.
 
Keep up the good work and shoot for that 70%
 
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#68
Posted: 5/5/2009 10:22:39 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by PuckHog]
SN....Twins Tigers un 9 from Monday was a push 
               Minn won  7 - 2
 
Also...can't seem to find your earlier posts where you explain how your system works?I would appreciate if you could post the link if it still exists.
  This is my 1st year betting MLB and never realized how interesting and profitable it can be.Thanks for posting your system plays and the time (40mins a game,wow!!!)you spend doing this.
 
Keep up the good work and shoot for that 70%
 

[/Quote

your interest is welcomed, all the details pertaining to the Base_Runs formula/system is published on page one of this thread, along with the wikepedia link for the formula. unless you start at the conception of the thread, and scroll through it's entirety, it would be difficult to grasp it's concept, and achieve understanding to your advantage. everything is documented in detail, and self explained, but requires review of the entire thread if interested. As I explained earlier, the totals line movement fluxuates, and differs from book to book, as tonight in the Cubs/Giants game UNDER 8 at Pinnacle -120 (released at10:23 am c/o vegasinsider.com line movement, but many books had it listed at 7.5 before game time, the listing with the Detroit game had the line at 9 as I published, but when I was speaking hypothetically as an example,many books closed at 9.5 after I had already published 6 hours in advance, remember, I am not posting 'picks' I am documenting an experiment with research, where as I have to give a figure at the time, for judgement purposes..  To base it's success ratio on advantage/wins, not impressive/wins, based on line movement, all though many use these plays as their daily picks, and tail the research to their advantage, they have no initiative to incorporate the formula in their handicapping MLB, but shop the line to there advantage, based on the success ratio of the formula's performance to date.....it's around 68% as we speak,  all phase's, and plays are documented in this thread; that is the general outline/description of the Base_Runs system/formula/experiment...best regards

 

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#69
Posted: 5/6/2009 11:30:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by sports_Network:

          "manefesto", that was an example on behalf of NewZealandPride to give him understanding of management(read above) so I posted exactly how I played the games, in terms of units, and game strength...for those who are tracking with interest, and have serious intent, but lack experience, and understanding in attaching units; I would provide this information as a courtesy to them only, based on their involvement....As the experiment approaches it's 100 game finalisation.......So your answer is Yes..

Network, I am looking forward to your strength-based unit play recomendations...thanks for your efforts

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#70
Posted: 5/6/2009 2:29:35 PM
manifesto, no problem......I also tracked the game in question, based on our discussion Monday, I located it, in Phase IV, 04/27 the play was the WhiteSox, which was ppd, and carried over the next day in a doubleheader with the Mariners...Chicago won 2-1 and was not filed..Add another advantage/win, to keep precise....
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#71
Posted: 5/6/2009 2:57:55 PM
MLB formulated system plays Wednesday O5/06/09  Phase XIII
 
                             Braves-139
                             Rockies-151
                             Yankees-156
 
                             Phillies vs Mets UNDER 9
                             Pirates vs Cardinals UNDER 9
                             Twins vs Oreoles OVER 10
                             Tigers vs WhiteSox UNDER 9
                             Mariners vs Royals OVER 10
                             Rangers vs A's OVER 9
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#72
Posted: 5/6/2009 4:34:28 PM
typo error:Orioles
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#73
Posted: 5/6/2009 8:17:33 PM
Thanks SN for your quick reply
  I have read your thread from the start and a couple of articles by TomTango at his site,including his blog.After reading,I was quite impressed and at the same time surprised at how in depth you go in analyzing baseball statistics.This is my first year betting on MLB and will try to follow your plays to learn a bit about how you make your selections from all the games each day.I never realized how much harder it seems to be to cap baseball than hockey.I guess thats why they call baseball the thinking mans game.
 
Maybe even make a few this season too......
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#74
Posted: 5/7/2009 5:36:20 AM
for the record, 5/6  Phase XIII  replay:
      Twins vs Orioles OVER 1O scratched,6innings-no advantage..
      Tigers vs WhiteSox UNDER 9 scratched,PPD-weather....
      Mariners vs Royals OVER 10 'true' PUSH-no play....
      Yankees-156 x-innings, Loss......
 
      4-2 on all action games...
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#75
Posted: 5/7/2009 10:19:32 AM
Hello, I'm new to this forum and hope I will learn a lot !

I have studied the Base Runs formula and if I understand correctly, you use batter vs pitcher stats, but I'd like you to explain how you process since we only know the starting pitcher, so how do we integrate changes of pitcher during a game ? As for hitters, do you use the last game lineup ? Maybe you could post an example of how you procede for a given game if that's not too much to ask, although I understand that it's not the definitive version of your system, that would still be interesting to study.
I have apply the Base Runs formula for some teams using the overall average stats per game, but the only thing that gives me is the runs expectation which is irrelevant for a special matchup.

Note that english is not my native language so I apologize for any mistakes.
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