Posted: 1/31/2009 11:47:11 PM
Thanks for the spreadsheet!!!!
I notice that your spread sheet does not consider the scoring differences of a team when playing on the road versus at home. For example
Chicago averages 3.65 GF when playing at home and only 3.09 GF when playing away. Chicago averages 2.30 GA at home and 2.77 GA when playing away.
San Jose: 3.96 GF(Home), 3.09 GF(Away), 2.08 GA(Home), 2.70 GA(Away)
From this, it appears that there are 2 possible approaches with the Poisson formula:
1. Add the home team's GF(home) plus the away team's GA(away). The reason being is that home teams score more at home and road teams score less on the road. However, this seems to exagerate the diffierential between road/home scoring.
Example - Chicago at San Jose:
=Poisson(5.5,3.96+2.77,True) => 33.6% (Under)/66.4%(Over)
2. Add the average of the home team's GF(home) & away team's GA(away) AND average of the home team's GA(home) & away team's GF(away).
Example - Chicago at San Jose
=> 45.3% Under/ 54.7% Over
Calin's spreadsheet resulted in 47.2% Under/52.7% Over
Any thoughts about my methods?