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Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: Over / Under Poisson strategy
calinreddog send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: bet365 |
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#51
Posted: 1/30/2009 5:54:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ferndog:

calinreddog are you using pwp spreadsheet for bb to get the plays for your totals?

no, i'm trying something a little bit different...basketball is not poisson...

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#52
Posted: 1/30/2009 5:58:03 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ferndog:

calinreddog are you using pwp spreadsheet for bb to get the plays for your totals?

the pwp spreadsheet, i deleted today; i don't think it's worth to lose time with that; i am almost sure it work in the long run; if it did well for 2 days it might've been just luck or coincidence; i lost yesterday some hockey bets and i won't use it...so take care...

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#53
Posted: 1/30/2009 5:59:50 PM
 "i am almost sure it work"
sorry, i wanted to say it won't work...
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#54
Posted: 1/30/2009 5:59:55 PM

Calin:  Do you differentiate a team's "goals for" and "goals allowed" whether at home or on the road?  Most teams have significant differences in their numbers based on whether they are playing at home or on the road.  Below is an example of tonight's NHL matchups:

GF - Goals For, GA - Goals Allowed, TG - Total Goals

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#55
Posted: 1/30/2009 6:39:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jbrent95:

Calin:  Do you differentiate a team's "goals for" and "goals allowed" whether at home or on the road?  Most teams have significant differences in their numbers based on whether they are playing at home or on the road.  Below is an example of tonight's NHL matchups:

GF - Goals For, GA - Goals Allowed, TG - Total Goals

Of course, I take the goals for and against when playing at home for the home team and when playing away for the road team.

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#56
Posted: 1/31/2009 4:21:50 AM

 last night results:

NHL

pit-nj over 5.5 3-4

nas-cal over 5.5 0-1

ott-cbj under 5.5 0-1

NBA
 
chi-sac under 213 109-88
bos-det over 180 86-76
lac-cle over 189 95-112
cha-den over 193 99-110
okc-uta under 211 90-110
gsw-noh under 214.5 91-87
NCAAB
penn-harv under 142.5 66-60
val-but under 122.5 51-59
loymd-rider under 142 75-61.
 
NHL  2-1
NBA  5-1
NCAAB  3-0
last night: 10-2
Overall: 43-20 (68.25%).
See you later with soccer and european hockey picks!
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#57
Posted: 1/31/2009 6:42:04 AM
European hocke picks and soccer for today:
 
Hockey

lulea-byrnas under 5.5

liptovski mikulas-skalica over 5.5

kloten flyers-ambri piotta over 5.5

fribourg-bern over 5.5

lugano-davos over 5.5

 

Soccer

st mirren-kilmarnock under 2.5

ipswich-plymouth under 2.5

southampton-swansea under 2.5

oldham-swindon over 2.5

walsall-leeds over 2.5

carlisle-colchester over 2.5

huddersfield-peterborough over 2.5

luton-bury over 2.5

hamilton-hearts under 2.5

ascoli-ancona under 2.5

dumferline-queen of the south under 2.5

brechin-stirling albion over 2.5

sevilla atletico-albacete under 2.5

hercules-cordoba under 2.5

le mans-nantes under 2.5

mouscron-dender over 2.5

ajax amsterdam-heerenveen over 2.5

benfica lisabon-rio ave under 2.5

numancia-real madrid over 2.5

 

  and see you later with NHL, NBA and NCAAB picks for today.

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#58
Posted: 1/31/2009 6:55:41 AM
NHL
 

det-was over 5.5

nyr-bos over 5.5

lak-mon over 5.5

pit-tor under 6.5

chi-sjs over 5.5

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#59
Posted: 1/31/2009 7:18:23 AM
Can you put a reference to see which are the best forecasts(predictions) please??? One serious brilliant(genial) stake not badly at all if inconvenience(trouble) is not great thank you
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#60
Posted: 1/31/2009 8:41:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ckone266:

Can you put a reference to see which are the best forecasts(predictions) please??? One serious brilliant(genial) stake not badly at all if inconvenience(trouble) is not great thank you

sorry, no detailed forecast because there's no such thing; and there are no best forecasts, they all have the same value; they are all based on 4 numbers available on any sports site: goals / points for and goals / points against for both teams; that's it, no other information or detailed forecast.

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#61
Posted: 1/31/2009 9:36:52 AM
NCAAB
wva-louvi over 130
dela-ne over 125
hou-mem over 143.5
wast-arz over 115
vandy-aub over 132
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#62
Posted: 1/31/2009 11:03:22 AM
...more NCAAB
 
dav-sam over 130.5
socar-kenty over 146.5
nm-utah over 136.5
col-kan over 135.5
unlv-airfc over 118
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#63
Posted: 1/31/2009 11:45:13 AM
Impressive Red!  You too Ferndog.  VERY impressive.
 
Thanks for the hard work.
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#64
Posted: 1/31/2009 12:04:47 PM
could you give me instructions how to get the hockey totals in excel with the Poisson function?
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#65
Posted: 1/31/2009 12:22:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by butta01:

could you give me instructions how to get the hockey totals in excel with the Poisson function?

you may download the spreadsheet from my windows live space http://cid-c9f94e792da7f590.skydrive.live.com/browse.aspx/Sport%20Betting?uc=1

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#66
Posted: 1/31/2009 12:22:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eppy224:

Impressive Red!  You too Ferndog.  VERY impressive.
 
Thanks for the hard work.

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#67
Posted: 1/31/2009 12:23:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eppy224:

Impressive Red!  You too Ferndog.  VERY impressive.
 
Thanks for the hard work.

thanks,

 

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#68
Posted: 1/31/2009 12:58:26 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by eppy224:

Impressive Red!  You too Ferndog.  VERY impressive.
 
Thanks for the hard work.


thanks eppy224 this system has been working great with bb. calin has given me some great ideas with this system
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#69
Posted: 1/31/2009 6:33:50 PM
results
Hockey

lulea-byrnas under 5.5 5-0 win

liptovski mikulas-skalica over 5.5 1-4 loss

kloten flyers-ambri piotta over 5.5 3-2 loss

fribourg-bern over 5.5 3-4 win

lugano-davos over 5.5 2-3 loss

 

Soccer

st mirren-kilmarnock under 2.5 1-1 win

ipswich-plymouth under 2.5 0-0 win

southampton-swansea under 2.5 2-2 loss

oldham-swindon over 2.5 0-0 loss

walsall-leeds over 2.5 1-0 loss

carlisle-colchester over 2.5 0-2 loss

huddersfield-peterborough over 2.5 1-0 loss

luton-bury over 2.5 2-1 win

hamilton-hearts under 2.5 2-0 win

ascoli-ancona under 2.5 2-0 win

dumferline-queen of the south under 2.5 0-2 win

brechin-stirling albion over 2.5 1-2 win

sevilla atletico-albacete under 2.5 1-1 win

hercules-cordoba under 2.5 1-0 win

le mans-nantes under 2.5 0-2 win

mouscron-dender over 2.5 0-2 loss

ajax amsterdam-heerenveen over 2.5 0-1 loss

benfica lisabon-rio ave under 2.5 1-0 win

numancia-real madrid over 2.5 0-2 loss

 

ncaab

wva-louvi over 130 win
dela-ne over 125 win
hou-mem over 143.5 win
wast-arz over 115 win
vandy-aub over 132 win
dav-sam over 130.5 loss
socar-kenty over 146.5 win
nm-utah over 136.5 win
col-kan over 135.5 loss
unlv-airfc over 118 loss
 
european hockey 2-3 win-loss
 
soccer 11-8 win-loss
 
ncaab  7-3 win-loss
 
today: 20-14 win-loss
 
Overall: 63-34 win-loss (64.9%).
 
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#70
Posted: 1/31/2009 7:43:34 PM
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#71
Posted: 1/31/2009 7:50:27 PM
great job today man

never thought that many NCAA bball overs would hit
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#72
Posted: 1/31/2009 10:42:52 PM
NEW TO COVERS...... have seen a variation of a o/u system that i have been playing for 5 years now. [ reddogo/u ].  my system is for nba only. Approx. 57% over 5 years. If anyone shows some intrest i will post it.                    
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#73
Posted: 1/31/2009 11:47:11 PM
Callin,
 
Thanks for the spreadsheet!!!!
 
I notice that your spread sheet does not consider the scoring differences of a team when playing on the road versus at home.  For example
 
Chicago averages 3.65 GF when playing at home and only 3.09 GF when playing away.  Chicago averages 2.30 GA at home and 2.77 GA when playing away.
 
San Jose:   3.96 GF(Home), 3.09 GF(Away), 2.08 GA(Home), 2.70 GA(Away)
 
From this, it appears that there are 2 possible approaches with the Poisson formula:
 
1. Add the home team's GF(home) plus the away team's GA(away).  The reason being is that home teams score more at home and road teams score less on the road. However, this seems to exagerate the diffierential between road/home scoring.
 
Example -  Chicago at San Jose:
  =Poisson(5.5,3.96+2.77,True)    =>  33.6% (Under)/66.4%(Over)
 
2.  Add the average of the home team's GF(home) & away team's GA(away)  AND average of the home team's GA(home) & away team's GF(away). 
 
Example - Chicago at San Jose
 =Poisson(5.5,Average(3.96,2.77)+Average(2.08,3.09)
         => 45.3% Under/ 54.7% Over
 
Calin's spreadsheet resulted in 47.2% Under/52.7% Over
 
Any thoughts about my methods?  
 
 
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#74
Posted: 1/31/2009 11:47:16 PM
calin reddog, wasup man, impressive thing you got going on here. Im trying to understand the math youre doing but cant quiet get it. How about for every sport, you kind of write an equation so people can follow it? If its not too much work, id really appreciate it man. Help out a strugglin brotha. Thanks.
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#75
Posted: 2/1/2009 12:30:18 AM
calinreddog on the PWP spreadsheet when it calculates the odds, are these value odds you should look for to get a value play? Is that what it calculates? For example on sunday chelsea at liverpool i got on the spreadsheet PWP chelsea 0.62 & odds at 1.59. Does this mean that if i can get chelsea better than 1.59 this is worth a look?
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