Messages

Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 1 of 11  1 2 3 4 5   »
Author: [Systems & Strategies] Topic: NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#1
Posted: 12/2/2008 1:53:18 AM
Here is what you do:

Top 16 Home Records 
PIT, NJ, NYR, WAS, CAR, DET, NAS, CHI, MIN, COL, EDM, ANA, DAL, MON, OTT, SJ,
Middle teams still play the home chase with these also
Buffalo, Colorado, Philadelphia, Boston, Vancouver,  Calgary
Play all these teams when you get a 3 or more game home series on the calendar of the NHL SEASON never chase more than 3 games
 
Bottom 8 Home Records 
LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
Play these teams to lose when the have a 3 or more game home series never chase more than 3 games

So far this year it is 40-0 chasing Carolina which lost their first game so we will be chasing this team till the they win or until the 3rd home game in this series
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#2
Posted: 12/2/2008 1:56:18 AM
These are all the games we will be following in December for the NHL Home Chase 3 Games Variation Plus

December

Team - Date - #Games

Det 1 4g

Min 1 3g

SJ 2 5g

Ott 3 3g

StL 5 3g

Dal 5 3g

Col 7 3g

Phi 9 4g

NJ 10 3g

Edm 11 3g

LA 11 4g

Bos 13 3g

Van 14 4g

Det 15 4g

Mon 18 3g

Atl 18 3g

Cal 19 5g

NJ 19 4g

Flo 21 3g

NYr 23 3g

Col 23 3g

Van 26 3g

Car 27 3g

StL 27 3g

Dal 27 3g

Pho 27 3g

Tor 30 4g

Ana 31 4g


quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#3
Posted: 12/2/2008 2:06:59 AM
December 1, 2008 Detroit RedWings which made the system 40-0 still chasing Carolina on December 4th for the second game and Minnesota getting beat by Colorado 6-5 moving them on to the second game on December 3 with St. Louis

Final
Anaheim  2
Detroit    3
December 2, 2008 we have San Jose in a  3 or more home chase

Toronto
San Jose

Good Luck as Always
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#4
Posted: 12/2/2008 2:13:21 AM
My mistake if you don't win the first game double up for the second game;
Like example start with 25 then 50 then 100 (just an example)
quote
SRTZEE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
SRTZEE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 281
Location: Ontario
#5
Posted: 12/2/2008 9:55:37 AM
RSI
View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle

Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 162
Location: Ontario

quote
Posted: 10/22/2008 12:32:11 PM
Here is my list of the top 16 teams (home records) so you can eliminate the bottom teams if you want.
 
PIT,  NJ,  NYR,  WAS,  CAR,  DET, NAS, CHI, MIN, COL, EDM, ANA, DAL, MON, OTT, SJ
 
 
Here are the bottom 8 (home records)
 
LA, PHO, STL, TB, ATL, FLO, TOR, NYI
 
WOW that looks familiar, wonder where you copied that from!!!!
quote
SRTZEE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
SRTZEE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 281
Location: Ontario
#6
Posted: 12/2/2008 9:57:21 AM
Here I'll help you out since your just copying from my thread and posting on here anyway!!!
 

October

Team - Date - #Games

Pit 11 4g

Ott 11 4g

Flo 11 3g

TB 11 5g

Cal 11 3g

LA 12 4g

NYr 13 3g

Atl 14 3g

Mon 15 5g

Ana 15 3g

StL 16 7g

Nas 18 3g

Chi 19 3g

NYi 23 3g

Min 23 3g

Pho 23 4g

Buf 27 3g

LA 27 7g

NJ 29 4g

Ana 29 3g

November

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 3g

Van 2 6g

Chi 3 5g

SJ 4 3g

Ana 5 6g

Col 5 4g

Was 6 3g

Car 7 3g

Pit 13 3g

NYr 15 3g

NJ 15 3g

Car 16 4g

Tor 17 3g

TB 18 4g

Ott 20 3g

Min 20 5g

Buf 21 4g

Flo 24 3g

Pho 28 4g

Mon 29 7g

Car 30 4g

December

Team - Date - #Games

Det 1 4g

Min 1 3g

SJ 2 5g

Ott 3 3g

StL 5 3g

Dal 5 3g

Col 7 3g

Phi 9 4g

NJ 10 3g

Edm 11 3g

LA 11 4g

Bos 13 3g

Van 14 4g

Det 15 4g

Mon 18 3g

Atl 18 3g

Cal 19 5g

NJ 19 4g

Flo 21 3g

NYr 23 3g

Col 23 3g

Van 26 3g

Car 27 3g

StL 27 3g

Dal 27 3g

Pho 27 3g

Tor 30 4g

Ana 31 4g

January

Team - Date - #Games

Bos 1 6g

Was 1 4g

Nas 1 5g

Edm 3 5g

Det 6 3g

Cal 6 3g

Pho 6 3g

Phi 8 3g

Flo 8 3g

LA 8 4g

Van 9 5g

Ana 9 3g

Col 10 3g

Chi 11 3g

Dal 12 3g

NYi 13 5g

Min 13 3g

SJ 13 4g

Pit 14 5g

TB 15 5g

Col 16 8g

Ott 17 3g

Edm 18 6g

Flo 19 4g

Cal 21 3g

Bos 27 3g

Col 27 4g

Van 28 4g

SJ 29 3g

Mon 31 3g

February

Team - Date - #Games

Det 2 3g

Ott 3 3g

Pit 4 4g

Min 4 4g

StL 5 3g

Cal 5 3g

Dal 6 4g

NJ 7 5g

TB 7 6g

Col 7 3g

Nas 10 4g

Buf 11 3g

Ana 11 3g

LA 12 3g

Pho 12 4g

Flo 13 5g

Tor 14 4g

Min 14 3g

Det 15 3g

SJ 17 3g

Was 18 5g

Dal 19 6g

Edm 21 4g

Bos 24 6g

Ott 24 8g

Nas 24 5g

Cal 24 3g

NJ 26 3g

NYi 26 6g

Chi 27 3g

Van 27 4g

Atl 28 4g

March

Team - Date - #Games

Was 1 4g

TB 3 3g

Phi 5 5g

LA 5 3g

Ana 6 5g

Det 7 3g

Chi 8 4g

Mon 10 4g

Tor 10 3g

StL 10 4g

Edm 12 3g

Van 13 4g

Pit 14 8g

Pho 14 4g

Flo 14 5g

Ott 17 3g

TB 17 4g

Cal 18 3g

Car 18 3g

SJ 19 3g

Chi 20 5g

NYr 21 3g

Mon 21 5g

Nas 24 3g

StL 24 3g

Dal 24 3g

Atl 26 3g

Was 27 4g

Det 27 4g

Edm 29 6g

Bos 31 3g

Flo 31 3g

April

Team - Date - #Games

Car 2 4g

Van 5 3g

Atl 7 3g

Col 9 3g

quote
SRTZEE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
SRTZEE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 281
Location: Ontario
#7
Posted: 12/2/2008 9:58:35 AM
Need anymore help, just look through my posts, you can copy and paste all you want!!!!!!!!
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#8
Posted: 12/2/2008 11:12:56 AM
We discussed in your thread Srtzee and then I suggested to start a new thread because I had a feeling it would end up like this.

The only thing I want to point out to expertcapper is that you should quote when starting a variation of a system thats on the forum here. I'm assuming that's all srtzee wanted. Or, at the very least, acknowledge that this is being inspired by it and quote when copying exactly.

Now, let's move on to the real business. Will be following this thread closely as well.
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#9
Posted: 12/2/2008 12:23:24 PM
Our record so far this NHL season I have checked and is 41-0 not 40-0 as I stated before chasing Carolina and Minnesota  in the 2nd games not winning yet on their 3 game home chase
Today we have another game with a 3 game home chase its San Jose
December 2, 2008
Looking at SRTZEE's schedule that i used to copy and paste above

Toronto
San Jose -278
Were trying to find a way to minimize risking  the odds of -278 anybody have any suggestions?

Good luck as always
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#10
Posted: 12/2/2008 12:35:00 PM
Yeah, I might have an idea. A guy in the hockey forum had posted a formula to bet a -1 PL which might be the best option here. You could always go for the -1.5 PL at a very decent price but are you convinced that San Jose will win this game by 2 games?  If you are , then the puck line is the play.
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#11
Posted: 12/2/2008 12:45:21 PM
I have noticed when they have large odds like -230 or so they tend to struggle like win by 1 point if your lucky.> Example like last night Detroit was over -200 they barely won by 1 goal and had to come form behind.  I am thinking it would be smarter to play the puck line in regulation then your odds would be not that bad but it can not go into overtime. I am going to do some research on that right now.   I like your suggestion also, I am just trying to hedge a better way.
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#12
Posted: 12/2/2008 12:52:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by elithepunk:

You could always go for the -1.5 PL at a very decent price but are you convinced that San Jose will win this game by 2 goals


Typo.

Yeah, making it a reg -0.5 bet could help reduce the juice somewhat. I'd say make that the play.
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#13
Posted: 12/2/2008 1:18:08 PM
Thanks for that information Elithepunk any information is very helpful and that's what these forums are for to help other people.Now tonight's game between San Jose and Toronto at -0.5 puck regulation bet is -178 which isn't bad the -1.5 puck line is still -110 but I have done some research and these games over 200 odds tend to only win by one they usually have to come back to win. So play the game this way
Toronto
San Jose -0.5 puck line for -178
Good luck as always
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#14
Posted: 12/2/2008 1:23:18 PM
I am sure we can find better odds like pinnacle -174 for -0.5 puck line, -178 at 5 dimes dot com this is kinda scary because we are due for some overtime games and last year San Jose had trouble with their home series twice covering in the 4th game so just want people to be aware of this team. I know there undefeated at home this year so we will hope for the best.
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#15
Posted: 12/2/2008 2:15:38 PM
Being undefeated and so damn strong is what is making the odd drop so much but I don't think it's that easy of a pick. Toronto coming out strong now that they have a new GM. Looks like players are trying to impress the new boss.

I think it's a good trade-off to go for the -0.5 PL but like you said, should be seeing at least 1 game go into overtime. Hopefully, it's not at the shark tank.
quote
SRTZEE send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
SRTZEE
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 281
Location: Ontario
#16
Posted: 12/2/2008 4:43:42 PM
Just FYI, you should inform people that fading the bottom 8 lost 5 times last year.  That would wipe out all profits...  LA,ATL,FLO all had 3 game home winning streaks and TB had 2 home winning streaks.....
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#17
Posted: 12/3/2008 1:23:56 AM
Tonight San Jose won making our system 42-0 still chasing Carolina and Minnesota. I have decided to go with a 4 GAME CHASE   if needed because like SRTZEE said there were several teams that made that 3 game sweep last year for the 8 bottom teams. So if need play the 4th game
Final
Toronto 2
San Jose  5
Moving on to December 3,2008 Ottawa is at home for a 3 game series

Atlanta
Ottawa  -165

Also chasing Minnesota is at home again which we are chasing for there 2nd game
St Louis
Minnesota  -175
Good luck as always

quote
Mgutmans02 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
Mgutmans02
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 1032
Location: Massachusetts
#18
Posted: 12/3/2008 2:18:32 AM
hey guys..new to nhl betting..so for this system you just look at the team with 3 home games in a row and bet them until they win? 42-0 means that that team has won at least once out of those 3 games. im assuming you bet 1 U on the 1st game then 2 U on the 2nd game 4 U on the 3rd game.
 
STILL CHASING CAROLINA AND MINNESOTA...what does that mean? they have not had 3 games at home back to back?
 
 
thanks guys! i hope to help out as best i can!
quote
Mgutmans02 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: SBGGlobal.eu |
Mgutmans02
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 1032
Location: Massachusetts
#19
Posted: 12/3/2008 2:26:18 AM
also guys..what site do you use that offers -0.5 -1 for regulation lines etc? my site only offers -1.5 and if i were to start this i would get a seperate book just for this. if you dont want to post the site on here please add me as a friend and leave it on my space!
 
 
thanks again!
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#20
Posted: 12/3/2008 9:35:13 AM
Ok, I'll try to answer some of your questions.

First off, 5dimes is the best spot for NHL bettors living in the US. For us Canadians, we are mostly using Pinnacle.

And, yes, you are correct about the 42-0 record. It means that no team so far has been able to defeat the system for 3 consecutive games.

You should keep in mind that a certain number of teams could have gone the full distance, meaning, you would have had to bet a considerable amount of units to recuperate the losses of the two previous games. As for the money management, it is indeed a martingale strategy so we are doubling up every time we lose a bet. Your example is correct. 1 - 2 - 4 .

As for the system itself, this is a variation of the original one found in SRTZEE's thread.

We are doing as you say for the top 22 home teams in the league but are FADING the bottom 8 home teams. This simply means do the same as usual but by betting the opposite team every time a bottom 8 home team has 3 consecutive games at home. 

Several issues still need to be figured out. For example, there will be some ridiculous odds just like San Jose yesterday because they were playing Toronto. I think taking the -0.5 bet is the best solution to reduce juice. And, also, how to determine who is in the top 22 home teams and who sits in the bottom 8. I think we are simply going by last  year's standings taken from SRTZEE's thread also.

Hope I am being clear enough.
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#21
Posted: 12/3/2008 9:38:36 AM
Oh, forgot one question which I can easily answer. You asked what it meant when expertcapper said "still chasing carolina and minnesota".

He is simply saying that they have started a 3 game home stand and lost their first game at home. So we are chasing for them to win a game.

Tonight, Minnesota is playing so we bet on them to win this second game and tomorrow is Carolina.
quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#22
Posted: 12/3/2008 11:49:09 AM
Good Morning everyone, I am glad that elithepunk explained everything to whoever had questions it was a hard night for me last night at work.Glad we have others can answer all the questions thank you again elithepunk for helping us do that.
Yes I use 5dimes dot come i have seen that matchbook dot com offers better odds though, so I will be researching that but for now I use 5 dimes dot com.
Mgutsmans02 welcome to this thread I am hoping we can help you out in the handicapping NHL industry.
The -0.5 is the puck line but they have to win in regaulation . Sometimes causes a problem because the NHL tend to go into overtime i think about 25% of the time. Hope this helps you out in getting all the information you need. If you have any more questions don't be afraid to ask thank again

quote
expertcapper send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: BookMaker |
expertcapper
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 2800
Location: United States
#23
Posted: 12/3/2008 12:00:38 PM
Yes, elithepunk we look at Dallas this year they do not have a very good home record. So we need to make changes on that team on December 5 possibly when they come out as our team to chase for the home record. Last night's game was never in doubt as San Jose was up 4-0 right off the reeel, so that worked out well.
December 3, 2008
We have 2 games this is the odds right now it already went up anyone else better odds? At matchbook dot com I have -178 for Ottawa and Minnesota at -169

Atlanta
Ottawa    -178

St. Louis
Minnesota   -169

Good luck as always
quote
elithepunk send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Pinnacle Sports |
elithepunk
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Apr 2007
Posts: 3552
Location: Quebec
#24
Posted: 12/3/2008 12:53:48 PM
No problem. Probably easier for everyone when people understand what you are trying to do here in this thread.

Easy win yesterday like you said. San Jose deserved the ridiculous line and they played like they were supposed to.

I would suggest that you look into applying a better filter for determining which teams fall into the bottom 8. Looking at last year's standings could be helpful, but let's face it, not many would have predicted what is going on now with teams like Dallas.

Making it more dynamic but adapting the bottom 8 to current standings could be helpful perhaps. Keep us posted on what you go with.
quote
BostonStrangler send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
BostonStrangler
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 1828
Location: Massachusetts
#25
Posted: 12/3/2008 7:08:56 PM
good stuff

quote
Forum Index : Systems & Strategies : Messages Page 1 of 11  1 2 3 4 5   »
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.