This game will be a pick 'em soon. All of the money is/has been on Tampa since this game came on the board. Detroit had a bye last week and Tampa almost lost the last game to Tennessee. Detroit is a good team this year. Yes, a little streaky, but Kitna has 2 good receivers now and they have 2 average backs which should both play sunday and their defense has improved quite a bit. Keep an eye on the public money in this game. It is still 65/39 in Tampa's favor, so once the money starts to even out and the game becomes a pick you might want to wait then to pick Detroit, even though I believe it is a good pick at -2. F.Y.I: For the last couple of weeks when the public was 50/50 on a game involving a home favorite (no matter the line) the home fave covered. EVERY GAME. I am sure the trend has been close to covering 90% of the time since the first week, so I am going to ride this trend until it starts to lose me money. If I recall most of those games opened with most of the public money on the away dog (close to 80%). I am sure their are some exceptions to this rule like a backdoor cover or a big injury during the game, but just try this out and you will see. Just like the dogs that are 30% or worse favored by the public (Home or away) cover MOST of the time and why their opposites (71%+ faves) usually don't. A few people might read this and say, "Public money, blah blah, I know who to pick, never mind public money, blah blah, trends are b.s, blah blah". Well those people don't need to consider this, go to the next thread, and keep losing their money. People who want to improve their bankroll and are interested can read more of what I have to say in future posts. I've written posts on here and been wrong also, like everyone else. I also have been right with picks like Baltimore as 9 point faves (85% public $$ on St. Louis) and San Diego as 10 point faves (Most of the $$ started on Oakland, ended up 50/50 roughly) and people thought what I was saying was ludicrus. Not bragging just proving my point. Back to the Detroit game, as a Lions fan and a bettor, I like the Lions to win outright at home in a high scoring game.
Tampa Bay-23
Detroit-26
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This game will be a pick 'em soon. All of the money is/has been on Tampa since this game came on the board. Detroit had a bye last week and Tampa almost lost the last game to Tennessee. Detroit is a good team this year. Yes, a little streaky, but Kitna has 2 good receivers now and they have 2 average backs which should both play sunday and their defense has improved quite a bit. Keep an eye on the public money in this game. It is still 65/39 in Tampa's favor, so once the money starts to even out and the game becomes a pick you might want to wait then to pick Detroit, even though I believe it is a good pick at -2. F.Y.I: For the last couple of weeks when the public was 50/50 on a game involving a home favorite (no matter the line) the home fave covered. EVERY GAME. I am sure the trend has been close to covering 90% of the time since the first week, so I am going to ride this trend until it starts to lose me money. If I recall most of those games opened with most of the public money on the away dog (close to 80%). I am sure their are some exceptions to this rule like a backdoor cover or a big injury during the game, but just try this out and you will see. Just like the dogs that are 30% or worse favored by the public (Home or away) cover MOST of the time and why their opposites (71%+ faves) usually don't. A few people might read this and say, "Public money, blah blah, I know who to pick, never mind public money, blah blah, trends are b.s, blah blah". Well those people don't need to consider this, go to the next thread, and keep losing their money. People who want to improve their bankroll and are interested can read more of what I have to say in future posts. I've written posts on here and been wrong also, like everyone else. I also have been right with picks like Baltimore as 9 point faves (85% public $$ on St. Louis) and San Diego as 10 point faves (Most of the $$ started on Oakland, ended up 50/50 roughly) and people thought what I was saying was ludicrus. Not bragging just proving my point. Back to the Detroit game, as a Lions fan and a bettor, I like the Lions to win outright at home in a high scoring game.
IF THE LIONS HAD A ROUGH TIME AGAINST THE REDSKINS DEFENCE ....THE BUCS D IS ALOT FASTER AND TOUGHER...BUCS OFFENCE ISN'T AS BAD AS PEOPLE THINK...GARCIA IS YET TO TURN OVER THE BALL AND GALLOWAY IS HAVING A PRO BOWL SEASON....BUCS WIN THIS GAME BY 2 TOUCH-DOWNS $$$$....THE BUCS ARN'T A GOOD DOME TEAM ....SO TO BE SAFE BUY 2 POINTS AND TAKE THE BUCS +3 AND A HALF
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IF THE LIONS HAD A ROUGH TIME AGAINST THE REDSKINS DEFENCE ....THE BUCS D IS ALOT FASTER AND TOUGHER...BUCS OFFENCE ISN'T AS BAD AS PEOPLE THINK...GARCIA IS YET TO TURN OVER THE BALL AND GALLOWAY IS HAVING A PRO BOWL SEASON....BUCS WIN THIS GAME BY 2 TOUCH-DOWNS $$$$....THE BUCS ARN'T A GOOD DOME TEAM ....SO TO BE SAFE BUY 2 POINTS AND TAKE THE BUCS +3 AND A HALF
This game will be a pick 'em soon. All of the money is/has been on Tampa since this game came on the board. Detroit had a bye last week and Tampa almost lost the last game to Tennessee. Detroit is a good team this year. Yes, a little streaky, but Kitna has 2 good receivers now and they have 2 average backs which should both play sunday and their defense has improved quite a bit. Keep an eye on the public money in this game. It is still 65/39 in Tampa's favor, so once the money starts to even out and the game becomes a pick you might want to wait then to pick Detroit, even though I believe it is a good pick at -2. F.Y.I: For the last couple of weeks when the public was 50/50 on a game involving a home favorite (no matter the line) the home fave covered. EVERY GAME. I am sure the trend has been close to covering 90% of the time since the first week, so I am going to ride this trend until it starts to lose me money. If I recall most of those games opened with most of the public money on the away dog (close to 80%). I am sure their are some exceptions to this rule like a backdoor cover or a big injury during the game, but just try this out and you will see. Just like the dogs that are 30% or worse favored by the public (Home or away) cover MOST of the time and why their opposites (71%+ faves) usually don't. A few people might read this and say, "Public money, blah blah, I know who to pick, never mind public money, blah blah, trends are b.s, blah blah". Well those people don't need to consider this, go to the next thread, and keep losing their money. People who want to improve their bankroll and are interested can read more of what I have to say in future posts. I've written posts on here and been wrong also, like everyone else. I also have been right with picks like Baltimore as 9 point faves (85% public $$ on St. Louis) and San Diego as 10 point faves (Most of the $$ started on Oakland, ended up 50/50 roughly) and people thought what I was saying was ludicrus. Not bragging just proving my point. Back to the Detroit game, as a Lions fan and a bettor, I like the Lions to win outright at home in a high scoring game.
Tampa Bay-23
Detroit-26
Good post adsitar... my early lean was on TB but I will hold off and look at this further.
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Quote Originally Posted by adsitar:
This game will be a pick 'em soon. All of the money is/has been on Tampa since this game came on the board. Detroit had a bye last week and Tampa almost lost the last game to Tennessee. Detroit is a good team this year. Yes, a little streaky, but Kitna has 2 good receivers now and they have 2 average backs which should both play sunday and their defense has improved quite a bit. Keep an eye on the public money in this game. It is still 65/39 in Tampa's favor, so once the money starts to even out and the game becomes a pick you might want to wait then to pick Detroit, even though I believe it is a good pick at -2. F.Y.I: For the last couple of weeks when the public was 50/50 on a game involving a home favorite (no matter the line) the home fave covered. EVERY GAME. I am sure the trend has been close to covering 90% of the time since the first week, so I am going to ride this trend until it starts to lose me money. If I recall most of those games opened with most of the public money on the away dog (close to 80%). I am sure their are some exceptions to this rule like a backdoor cover or a big injury during the game, but just try this out and you will see. Just like the dogs that are 30% or worse favored by the public (Home or away) cover MOST of the time and why their opposites (71%+ faves) usually don't. A few people might read this and say, "Public money, blah blah, I know who to pick, never mind public money, blah blah, trends are b.s, blah blah". Well those people don't need to consider this, go to the next thread, and keep losing their money. People who want to improve their bankroll and are interested can read more of what I have to say in future posts. I've written posts on here and been wrong also, like everyone else. I also have been right with picks like Baltimore as 9 point faves (85% public $$ on St. Louis) and San Diego as 10 point faves (Most of the $$ started on Oakland, ended up 50/50 roughly) and people thought what I was saying was ludicrus. Not bragging just proving my point. Back to the Detroit game, as a Lions fan and a bettor, I like the Lions to win outright at home in a high scoring game.
Tampa Bay-23
Detroit-26
Good post adsitar... my early lean was on TB but I will hold off and look at this further.
I like the Lions in this game even though it should be a really close game. Maybe it's just cuz of the fact that the lions are coming off a bye week and the fact that they are playing at home. I don't think tampa bay is really as good as people think they are. I mean cmon, look at who they have beaten this year. New Orleans, Rams, Panthers, and Tennessee after Vince Young goes down in the third quarter. I know the lions got killed in Washington but they are 0-22 at Washington.
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I like the Lions in this game even though it should be a really close game. Maybe it's just cuz of the fact that the lions are coming off a bye week and the fact that they are playing at home. I don't think tampa bay is really as good as people think they are. I mean cmon, look at who they have beaten this year. New Orleans, Rams, Panthers, and Tennessee after Vince Young goes down in the third quarter. I know the lions got killed in Washington but they are 0-22 at Washington.
Most of the money on Tampa and the line is moving in Tampas favor to -2.5 from -2!! Caesars has it at -1 where it SHOULD be at. Funny how it is moving the wrong way, maybe that is a sign to take the lions since everyone is leaning on Tampa. Just something to think about. Same thing is happening with the Philly/Chi game. Philly opened at -4 and the money is all over the Bears and now it is Philly -5. In other words, take Detroit and take Philly.
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Most of the money on Tampa and the line is moving in Tampas favor to -2.5 from -2!! Caesars has it at -1 where it SHOULD be at. Funny how it is moving the wrong way, maybe that is a sign to take the lions since everyone is leaning on Tampa. Just something to think about. Same thing is happening with the Philly/Chi game. Philly opened at -4 and the money is all over the Bears and now it is Philly -5. In other words, take Detroit and take Philly.
1) agree with adistar on the short home favorite trend...
2) vegas is NOT on the side of TB... money is coming in on TB more than Detroit
3) take the over... Bucs running game is in trouble, and Garcia and Gruden know they can throw on the Lions... the Lions can usually throw on anybody, especially at home...
Lions will give a big effort off the bye in this game, and have Calvin Johnson back, which is big... not betting the side, but if i was, it would have to be Detroit...
but i am taking the over... both teams will throw the ball around all day...
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quick points...
1) agree with adistar on the short home favorite trend...
2) vegas is NOT on the side of TB... money is coming in on TB more than Detroit
3) take the over... Bucs running game is in trouble, and Garcia and Gruden know they can throw on the Lions... the Lions can usually throw on anybody, especially at home...
Lions will give a big effort off the bye in this game, and have Calvin Johnson back, which is big... not betting the side, but if i was, it would have to be Detroit...
but i am taking the over... both teams will throw the ball around all day...
HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS THAT SHOULD TELL YOU EXACTLY HOW THIS GAME IS GOING TO GO:
TAMPA BAY POINTS PER GAME IN THEIR LAST 5:
31...24...20...14...13
DETROIT'S POINTS PER GAME THIS SEASON:
36...20...21...37...3
LAST 3 GAMES FOR DETROIT HAVE BEEN LOW, HIGH, LOW AND TAMPA BAY HAS BEEN GOING DOWN EVERY WEEK SINCE THEIR HOT START. DETROIT AT HOME AFTER A BYE WEEK AND A HORRIBLE LOSS. TAMPA BARELY SQUEAKED BY THE TITANS WITHOUT VINCE YOUNG. ONLY CHANCE FOR THE BUCS IN THIS GAME IS A 4INT GAME FROM KITNA...DON'T REALLY SEE THAT HAPPENING. LIONS BOUNCE BACK AND SCORE BIG POINTS. TAMPA KEEPS GOING THE WRONG WAY. TAKE DETROIT -2.5 AND THE UNDER 44.5
DETROIT 30
TAMPA BAY 9
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HERE ARE SOME NUMBERS THAT SHOULD TELL YOU EXACTLY HOW THIS GAME IS GOING TO GO:
TAMPA BAY POINTS PER GAME IN THEIR LAST 5:
31...24...20...14...13
DETROIT'S POINTS PER GAME THIS SEASON:
36...20...21...37...3
LAST 3 GAMES FOR DETROIT HAVE BEEN LOW, HIGH, LOW AND TAMPA BAY HAS BEEN GOING DOWN EVERY WEEK SINCE THEIR HOT START. DETROIT AT HOME AFTER A BYE WEEK AND A HORRIBLE LOSS. TAMPA BARELY SQUEAKED BY THE TITANS WITHOUT VINCE YOUNG. ONLY CHANCE FOR THE BUCS IN THIS GAME IS A 4INT GAME FROM KITNA...DON'T REALLY SEE THAT HAPPENING. LIONS BOUNCE BACK AND SCORE BIG POINTS. TAMPA KEEPS GOING THE WRONG WAY. TAKE DETROIT -2.5 AND THE UNDER 44.5
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....THE BUCS ARN'T A GOOD DOME TEAM ....SO TO BE SAFE BUY 2 POINTS AND TAKE THE BUCS +3 AND A HALF
under 44.5
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