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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: New England at Miami (12/15/2013)
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#1
Posted: 12/10/2013 12:33:13 AM

Away:  New England [6-7 ATS]
Home:  Miami [8-5 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Sun Life Stadium

Recent Meetings:
10/27/13 - MIA 17 vs. NE 27

Team Leaders:

New England:
Passing: Tom Brady (3685)
Rushing: Stevan Ridley (611)
Receiving: Julian Edelman (775)

Miami:
Passing: Ryan Tannehill (3315)
Rushing: Lamar Miller (567)
Receiving: Brian Hartline (855)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 12/10/2013 9:35:57 AM
loving Miami... time for brady to lose one
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#3
Posted: 12/10/2013 1:52:36 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

loving Miami... time for brady to lose one

Agree ! Loving my NE team to lose this time. Adding a tease with Miami +8.5 with maybe with Detroit at home on Monday night.

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#4
Posted: 12/10/2013 8:18:16 PM
New England may have won last week's battle vs Cleveland, but Colonel Belichick lost his 2nd Lieutenant in Ron Gronkowski. 
I use war analogies bc a 17-week season is a war of attrition. The Patriots will now have to regress and rely on the production of their little wide receivers, Edelman and Amendola. I expect them to spread Miami out and try to exploit Miami with 3-step drops and lots of short passes (and screens to Bolden and Vareen). The only problem is that if I know their strategy, shouldn't Joe Philbin??
I had a chance to do a little NFL Rewind on the Dolphins-Pats week 8 showdown, and I was left with a couple conclusions. For 3 quarters the Miami Dolphins appeared to be the better team. They ran the ball with ease, did a relatively good job containing Tom Brady (with Gronkowski), and controlled the time of possession. Where things went wrong was when Caleb Sturgis hit the upright on a 46 yd fg, when Tannehill got sack-fumbled, and when Miami had a sack fumble taken off the board bc of an illegal batting penalty. The Pats also blocked a fg in the 4th quarter that helped put the game on ice. 

I agree that it's time for the Pats to lose. I think most of us are getting a little tired of watching Brady's mad dawg TD celebrations.
In all seriousness, the Pats could lose out and still win the division at 10-6, or win just 1 of their next 3 games and clinch at 11-5 (at Baltimore next week, then home against Buffalo). I think the Miami Dolphins smell blood in the water and would like to avenge their week 8 loss at Gillette when they had the Patriots right where they wanted them. They were up 17-3 in the third and as coach Denny Green would say, "they let'em off the hook" and dropped the cash. 
I am probably wrong about this, but I don't see the same thing happening to the "week 15 Dolphins". They seem like a much more confident team on both sides of the ball, and they have now built some decent momentum from their impressive back-to-back road wins vs the Jets and Steelers (both of whom were in must win situations to keep their playoff hopes alive). Meanwhile during that time period, the Pats have barely gotten by the Texans and the Browns.

It's not easy to bet against Brady in December, but in 80 degree South Beach without his favorite weapon, I am going with the Dolphins for the win and cover.

Let's go Fish!!!
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#5
Posted: 12/11/2013 12:15:52 AM

I have followed several of your post. You are so methodical and smart with your analogy of each game. Is there anyway for me to become a friend to follow your picks. It has saved and made me a little dough for Christmas time. I owe you a big thanks my friend. I look forward to hearing from you!

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#6
Posted: 12/11/2013 1:13:44 AM
New England ML
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#7
Posted: 12/11/2013 8:56:14 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

New England may have won last week's battle vs Cleveland, but Colonel Belichick lost his 2nd Lieutenant in Ron Gronkowski. 
I use war analogies bc a 17-week season is a war of attrition. The Patriots will now have to regress and rely on the production of their little wide receivers, Edelman and Amendola. I expect them to spread Miami out and try to exploit Miami with 3-step drops and lots of short passes (and screens to Bolden and Vareen). The only problem is that if I know their strategy, shouldn't Joe Philbin??
I had a chance to do a little NFL Rewind on the Dolphins-Pats week 8 showdown, and I was left with a couple conclusions. For 3 quarters the Miami Dolphins appeared to be the better team. They ran the ball with ease, did a relatively good job containing Tom Brady (with Gronkowski), and controlled the time of possession. Where things went wrong was when Caleb Sturgis hit the upright on a 46 yd fg, when Tannehill got sack-fumbled, and when Miami had a sack fumble taken off the board bc of an illegal batting penalty. The Pats also blocked a fg in the 4th quarter that helped put the game on ice. 

I agree that it's time for the Pats to lose. I think most of us are getting a little tired of watching Brady's mad dawg TD celebrations.
In all seriousness, the Pats could lose out and still win the division at 10-6, or win just 1 of their next 3 games and clinch at 11-5 (at Baltimore next week, then home against Buffalo). I think the Miami Dolphins smell blood in the water and would like to avenge their week 8 loss at Gillette when they had the Patriots right where they wanted them. They were up 17-3 in the third and as coach Denny Green would say, "they let'em off the hook" and dropped the cash. 
I am probably wrong about this, but I don't see the same thing happening to the "week 15 Dolphins". They seem like a much more confident team on both sides of the ball, and they have now built some decent momentum from their impressive back-to-back road wins vs the Jets and Steelers (both of whom were in must win situations to keep their playoff hopes alive). Meanwhile during that time period, the Pats have barely gotten by the Texans and the Browns.

It's not easy to bet against Brady in December, but in 80 degree South Beach without his favorite weapon, I am going with the Dolphins for the win and cover.

Let's go Fish!!!

Sammy_Ace for President!!!! I've been following your post and picks for the past 2 years now and since I've started I'm so far ahead in the positive I've lost track of how much. Keep up the good work, u are the real #Locksmith lol. Drinks are on me anytime if u decide to come to Toronto or The Bahamas. Cheers my friend 
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#8
Posted: 12/11/2013 9:19:02 AM
Miami covers & wins straight up
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#9
Posted: 12/11/2013 10:34:54 AM
Wow!!! How people change when players go down. Gronk means a lot to this PATS team but it's not convincing me enough to throw in the towel against this MIAMI  team,  the PAT's have dominated this team over the years!!!!!! That's exactly what NEW ENGLAND wants everyone to think, that their done and are dead in the water. Lol, biggest mistake one can do with this team. Not giving these PATS credit for the chemistry and brain trust it consists of. Anyways when players go down the team pulls together and they pick up for one another, that's why the PATS are always a threat and hated. Sunday will prove this theory!!!! Goodluck boys!!!!

                        NEW ENGLAND WINS !!!!! 
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#10
Posted: 12/11/2013 3:28:10 PM
I appreciate the feedback fellas...a long time ago I used to be a real degenerate and pay for picks from the covers experts...you'd be surprised by how much you can learn from their insight. I try to incorporate some of the things I learned from them and rely heavily on situational betting,  

I have been 8-1-1 on posted picks since week 11 so maybe I am fade material this week....just remember, You don't have to bet big to have big fun!!

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#11
Posted: 12/11/2013 8:52:18 PM
Bill & Tom will find a way to win another one....
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#12
Posted: 12/12/2013 8:34:38 PM

Usually with Sammy Ace, but I just can't do it on this one - it's the "playoff tree", and it's New England. Gronk, no Gronk, whatever, I just see Miami getting creamed here...... History don't lie........ Tell me why I'm wrong.............

As usual - good luck all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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#13
Posted: 12/13/2013 12:45:15 AM
Patroits take advantage of a Bronco loss and jump ahead for home field in the afc. That would also line it up for Detroit to get a huge W and setup a 3 way tie for the last wild card spot. Couldn't be lined up any better
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#14
Posted: 12/13/2013 3:15:24 AM

I have to agree with breakem, with Gronk or without Gronk the Pats win.  Its a next man up senerio and with the Broncos losing does open door for Pats to take home field.  Think Pats win but not as close as people think.

Talib will be man to man on Wallace and at the time they played last Dolphins front O-line not in shambles. Not a Pats fan at all but Bellick is one of the best in making adjustments, especially with time

Pats 28 Dolphins 17

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#15
Posted: 12/13/2013 7:56:37 AM
new england has beaten miami 7 straight time, most of them convincingly.  there is no reason for that streak to end.  last time they played i think was also without gronk,vereen and Danny.  I HATE the pats but money talks.  its always natural to look at how a team may have beaten a team last time, but the fact is they didn't and the pats had a bad game and still won when they last played miami.  btw the pats like it warm too.
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#16
Posted: 12/13/2013 7:57:57 AM
also with all the early money going on Miami makes me like the pats that much more
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#17
Posted: 12/13/2013 8:27:39 AM
also with all the early money going on Miami makes me like the pats that much more
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#18
Posted: 12/13/2013 10:18:54 AM
Last 10 meetings, Miami won once, back in 09, and by 1 point. Covers experts picks are 8 on miami, 1 on new england. I am not an expert and it seems clear  to put money on new england this week. I know i do not have to bet a lot to have fun, but i will anyway. 
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#19
Posted: 12/13/2013 11:24:58 AM
New englands magic ends this week. They got badly outplayed by browns last week and got real fortunate in the end of the game. 2 many games that happened for them this season. Just like they are desperate for a win so are the dolphins with the playoffs at stake. A loss here doesnt help their cause with a trip to buffalo in the freezing cold next week. Miami wins all they have to probably do is split the last 2 and their in the playoffs. No gronk and a battered defense give the dolphins here.
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#20
Posted: 12/13/2013 1:48:03 PM
Obviously with Denver losing last night, New England can win out and own the tie breaker over the Broncos. Whether I like it or not, that changes the stakes of this game. 

However, I am not going to flip flop and take the Pats. We all know that for the last decade, the AFC East has pretty much been New England's by default. I think Miami is finally turning the corner and is well positioned for a statement win here. For those of you who had a chance to watch the week 8 match-up, you must admit that Miami more than held their own at Gillette. 

My play is not based solely on Gronkowski being out (although it certainly helps). I like the Fish because they have a lot to prove after falling victim to Brady's 4th quarter magic; they are fighting for their playoff lives; and they are probably tired of being a walking mat for New England. Not to mention, they've looked pretty damn good over the past 2 weeks. 

Good Luck Fellas 
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#21
Posted: 12/13/2013 4:47:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

Obviously with Denver losing last night, New England can win out and own the tie breaker over the Broncos. Whether I like it or not, that changes the stakes of this game. 

However, I am not going to flip flop and take the Pats. We all know that for the last decade, the AFC East has pretty much been New England's by default. I think Miami is finally turning the corner and is well positioned for a statement win here. For those of you who had a chance to watch the week 8 match-up, you must admit that Miami more than held their own at Gillette. 

My play is not based solely on Gronkowski being out (although it certainly helps). I like the Fish because they have a lot to prove after falling victim to Brady's 4th quarter magic; they are fighting for their playoff lives; and they are probably tired of being a walking mat for New England. Not to mention, they've looked pretty damn good over the past 2 weeks. 

Good Luck Fellas 

<<<<<<<<<The Cross Dressing Serial Killa back in action here for one rare post...... Suck this one up boyz  >>>>>>>>>

Oh yeah...Miami dominated that game. Should of been a 17-0 shut out at the half. Refs made a bad penalty call against the dolphins which ended up giving the pats the ball back for 3 pts. That turned the game around right there and Miami never did score again after that I dont believe. I think the final score was 27-17.

About all this home field talk is what I wanted to respond about.

Here's my theory- Wouldn't the NFL (=nephilim) WANT Denver (you know, the Denver Airport?) to have HOME FIELD? In that case, you know the NFL will get what they want. 

That would mean a Dolphins win here, yes or no?
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#22
Posted: 12/13/2013 8:14:41 PM
I'll take New England, they will want to play Denver in there house even though Denver did not show much last night vs the Chargers. No matter who plays for the Pats they will find a way to win...
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#23
Posted: 12/13/2013 8:59:16 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LIanafranks5:


<<<<<<<<

Oh yeah...Miami dominated that game. Should of been a 17-0 shut out at the half. Refs made a bad penalty call against the dolphins which ended up giving the pats the ball back for 3 pts. That turned the game around right there and Miami never did score again after that I dont believe. I think the final score was 27-17.

About all this home field talk is what I wanted to respond about.

Here's my theory- Wouldn't the NFL (=nephilim) WANT Denver (you know, the Denver Airport?) to have HOME FIELD? In that case, you know the NFL will get what they want. 

That would mean a Dolphins win here, yes or no?

Oh for crying out loud Llanafranks is back in a one-night-only engagement...spouting the trickeries of the NFL and the Vegas books.  Quit with the conspiracy theory and tell us what you're playing...

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#24
Posted: 12/14/2013 4:05:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by omb1:

Oh for crying out loud Llanafranks is back in a one-night-only engagement...spouting the trickeries of the NFL and the Vegas books.  Quit with the conspiracy theory and tell us what you're playing...


Tysm.

I only post here because I just know how bad you guys miss me and jonze out for my posts, so I thought I'd do a little one for ya all. I hope you appreciate my insight. LOL

Oh yeah, I don't know who I'm on here, I really think teasing the dolphins is the best bet here, even though patriots have dominated them in previous years, I don't tend to go by past stats alone. Miami has kept the majority of their home games close and have dominated just about every teaser this season. Miami is always a good teaser play no matter what the situation is. Again here, we have Miami in a must win situation to keep their playoff race going.  I can see NE dropping this one, which would put Denver back in position. So, a gun to my head I'd probably take Miami. I know NE is the better team though, with or without gronk. 

But let's not underestimate Miami either. Everyone jumped off their bandwagon just because they got blown out by the Saints at home and dropped a couple of more after. Miami is still the same good team they were when they started 4-0, I think even better now.

good luck on this one, me and sammy on the same side is always good

If anyone is worried at least make this a NO PLAY on your card, don't risk money on NE here. They could win but it's a coinflip at best depending on the circumstances
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#25
Posted: 12/14/2013 4:17:39 AM
If you guys want a better bet go with Atlanta Falcons this week.
Washington is just going to lose no matter what. I know the game means nothing in terms of playoff standings but I think Falcons will have a good home game  for once and win 31 to 20 or better. Even 34 to 17 final in favor of atlanta wouldn't surprise me at all. This is a good spot for Atlanta and a bad one for Washington. I tried to talk myself into teasing Washington and still couldn't manage to, so that should tell you something
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