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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: New England at Carolina (11/18/2013)
Shew send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#51
Posted: 11/18/2013 10:59:28 AM
Sign me up for Panthers -1, at least that's the spread on my book at the moment.  Here are the reasons I really like the Panthers to cover tonight:

The Patriots, although they are getting healthier on both sides of the ball, still have a huge void at DT with pro bowler Wilfork out and their backup second string DT too.  In addition, the Pats offensive line has struggled mightily this year.  This plays to Carolina's strengths; running the ball very well and getting to QB on the defensive side of the ball.  Plus, the Pats are 1-3-1 their last five games off of a bye.  Therefore, the bye week isn't as big of an advantage as most people are assuming.  

To top everything off, the public is all over the Pats here.  As they say, "the only thing worse than a heavily backed favorite, is heavily backed public underdog."  This is a primetime, home game for a feisty Panthers team with a huge chip on their shoulders and looking to prove to the naysayers that they are for real and can hang with the elite teams.  Large play on the Panthers for me tonight!

Panthers 27 - Pats 21

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Posted: 11/18/2013 11:47:37 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Shew:

Plus, the Pats are 1-3-1 their last five games off of a bye.  Therefore, the bye week isn't as big of an advantage as most people are assuming.

I'm not sure where you get your stats from, as the Pats have lost only 1 game coming off a bye since 2003.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 11:57:32 AM
Cam Cam and company are coming off a solid win in San Fran. Everbody talking about their inept offense, but what about that D. Too Slick Tom has had difficulty going against "elite" defenses. Give me the Cam Cats minus the points for the large!!
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:01:20 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by prime9:


I'm not sure where you get your stats from, as the Pats have lost only 1 game coming off a bye since 2003.

History is not a precursor for future behavior! 


These are not the same Pats of yesteryear. Banged up D, and a gang of inexperienced WRs. Gronk is back and that is a notable concern. I think the Cats D line gives Brady trouble, consistently knocking him off his spot. As a result, Brady will get some points, but it wont be an offensive onslaught as many predict. Give me Cam Cam at home. 

 
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:04:26 PM
Easiest money ever! Im never wrong. Boat load on Carolina!  Big bet on Carolina ml!  Big teaser and miniature parlay Carolina and the under!  Ship it all early!
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:10:09 PM
Teasers are for losers who dont know wat theyre doing?? I won a 3 team teaser where the teaser points helped me win the saints game.. Anyways pats are the play here.. Carolina overrated.. Cam sucks.. Pats with pts is the play $$$
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:16:20 PM
Very similar to last nights den. Vs kc gm..

Ppl who took the chiefs last night was because of D and kc ability to pressure manning.. If u took broncos u picked them because u just didnt see a hall of fame qb lose to an overrated team on the big stage...

Thats basically wat i see here.. Carolina backers saying this and that about carolinas D but at the end of the day they will end up just like KC did last night.. On the losing end
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:17:41 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by 1junkie:

MGMProphits has officially posted the most rediculous entry I have ever been a party too. That's about as much crap as any one person could regurgitate in one session. BTW - Patriots win!
It's not just the NFL he spews this crap; it's in CFB too.  Quote, "I see things differently." Ya, you sure do: from the POV of a disillusion, paranoid-schizophrenic.  Like someone else said, post your pick and give a detailed write up on facts and statistical back up, or at least trends.  You have no credibility at all when you say things like, "Carolina is a crappy azz team." In the NFL, any team that wins 5 in a row is far from crappy.  Any team that goes on the road and shuts down a Conference champion (sf 49ers) is far from crappy. 

But enough on why your an idiot.  Here's relevant facts to the the argument on the game: Carolina has a stable of healthy running backs now with Jonathon Stewart back.  The Pats have trouble against the run with huge losses on the interior D.  They will need to dedicate more men into the box to stop the run, which will open up the opportunity for deep balls: no, not to Steve Smith but to Ted Ginn, Greg Olsen, and if he can keep from dropping passes-Brandon Lafell.

On the flip side the edge in coaching obviously goes to the Pats, and the passing attack favors them, as well.  Carolina has really not been tested by a competent passing offense so I believe their defensive numbers are skewed, a bit.  To me, this is a close game, in the end that gets decided by a FG.  It's a coin flip so I am teasing Pats to the over and look for a 2H opportunity.

That being said, if MGM is right Vegas might have already implanted a device into the players, coaches, referees and manipulated the outcome.  Or, if you think that it is impossible to manipulate over 100 people, the trajectory of the ball on every single play, the weather, and a million other variables then make an educated guess and go with it: no bitching and conspiracy theories allowed!
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:23:52 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mgmprofits:


Please dont take me for being rude here but this is why the public can't win...because you all don't realize that these games are staged. Just like Wrestling. If you saw what I saw you'd know that Carolina is a crappy azz team. Very, very bad on offense. San Fran had tons of injuries in that game and Carolina had ZERO pts in the first half, and only 10 pts in the entire game. No way they are better than a hall of famer like Tom Brady, sorry. 

And yes I know pats on the road have not looked good. This is also part of the "Act" I had Bengals to beat them in that game and they did. Only game in a while where Brady did not throw a single TD, but that was rigged. Now that people are riding Carolina's cocks this should be an easy win for NE to get back on track.

NE +1 is the better play here guys. It basically goes back and forth. Just like Houston this year, everyone riding them until they got blown out by 49ers (which I predicted 49ers would absolutely trounch them in that game) and then Houston covers against KC. This stuff is so easy to predict once you get inside Vegas' mind.

Best of luck

. I agreed with you all the way here. Cam Newton and co beat only bad team (ATL, STL, NYG "except for SEA) at home so far. SEA is a good team but since they run the ball too much where is CARO is really good at defense running game so that is how they keep close to SEA game ON 09/08/13. As for on the road past 3 games CARO beat MINI, TB, SF (injury SF).

Caro won on the road:

MINI 
- TB (Winless at that time)
- SF (alot of inquiries)

Caro won at home:

 ATL (Everyone beat dirty bird)
STL (bad team)
- NYG (Winless at that time, mostly turn over)

With all that being said CAM NEWTON is NOT TOM BRADY, when it come down 2:00 warning, I can count on TOM not CAM. 

NE for LARGE....and by the way  3 points is a icing on the cake. 

GOOD LUCK to all. 


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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:25:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Fac:


. I agreed with you all the way here. Cam Newton and co beat only bad team (ATL, STL, NYG "except for SEA) at home so far. SEA is a good team but since they run the ball too much where is CARO is really good at defense running game so that is how they keep close to SEA game ON 09/08/13. As for on the road past 3 games CARO beat MINI, TB, SF (injury SF).

Caro won on the road:

MINI 
- TB (Winless at that time)
- SF (alot of inquiries)

Caro won at home:

 ATL (Everyone beat dirty bird)
STL (bad team)
- NYG (Winless at that time, mostly turn over)

With all that being said CAM NEWTON is NOT TOM BRADY, when it come down 2:00 warning, I can count on TOM not CAM. 

NE for LARGE....and by the way  3 points is a icing on the cake. 

GOOD LUCK to all. 



Correction CARO didn't beat SEA....
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:29:40 PM
Monday nite dogs r 7-4 ats w the eagles beating a skins team who's qb wasn't ready to play cincy beating a banged up steelers squad giants beatin the vikes who both sucked at that point n the saints beating Miami all those covers were against sub .500 teams n now ya got NE gettin 3 ill take my chances w NE in this spot
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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:39:38 PM
Wanted to ad this cut and paste from MGMprofits, Thursday night CFB (GT versus Clemson).  If you a seriously taking advice on wagering from this guy you are as delusional as he is.  Please read:

 
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ongdia888:

Hi surfNturf, could you tell me 1 psychological reason why this work.  I would appreciated....

MGMPROFITS response:
I'll answer for him. The reason it works is because the spreads are rigged. The games are rigged. Everything in life is rigged. That's why Vegas makes all the money that they do. By sucking in the suckers to the better team and then having the dog cover most of the time. They do it in a sly way though by letting the good teams cover a certain amount of games and then getting them when everyone is on the wrong side. They make money by doing this, they're not satisfied with house juice. That's nothing to them.

Now my opinion for this game is to tease GT and forget about Clemson altogether. I looked at the stats and I can't see Clemson winning this one by more than 14 pts. And I wouldn't be surprised if GT won it outright, so that's why I wouldn't recommend to tease Clem.

Good Luck everyone


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Posted: 11/18/2013 12:53:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevopa:

Wanted to ad this cut and paste from MGMprofits, Thursday night CFB (GT versus Clemson).  If you a seriously taking advice on wagering from this guy you are as delusional as he is.  Please read:

 
QUOTE Originally Posted by Ongdia888:

Hi surfNturf, could you tell me 1 psychological reason why this work.  I would appreciated....

MGMPROFITS response:
I'll answer for him. The reason it works is because the spreads are rigged. The games are rigged. Everything in life is rigged. That's why Vegas makes all the money that they do. By sucking in the suckers to the better team and then having the dog cover most of the time. They do it in a sly way though by letting the good teams cover a certain amount of games and then getting them when everyone is on the wrong side. They make money by doing this, they're not satisfied with house juice. That's nothing to them.

Now my opinion for this game is to tease GT and forget about Clemson altogether. I looked at the stats and I can't see Clemson winning this one by more than 14 pts. And I wouldn't be surprised if GT won it outright, so that's why I wouldn't recommend to tease Clem.

Good Luck everyone


MGMprofits is the man.  Love the way this guy thinks.  Anyone that don't think the NFL or most other sports is rigged needs to go read a book. Ie.  LARCENCY Games??  

I will tell you fools who laugh at people who cry fix somin for free.  In all walks of life when there is major money involved you best believe that there is going to be some sort of corruption or shadiness. 

I have a friend who works as a trader for a major financial institution and he tells me everything that goes on.  The NFL and gambling industry turns over money well into the billions.  You think they are going to leave that sort of money up to chance?? As I said go read a book! 
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:06:05 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kalrajbains:

MGMprofits is the man.  Love the way this guy thinks.  Anyone that don't think the NFL or most other sports is rigged needs to go read a book. Ie.  LARCENCY Games??  

I will tell you fools who laugh at people who cry fix somin for free.  In all walks of life when there is major money involved you best believe that there is going to be some sort of corruption or shadiness. 

I have a friend who works as a trader for a major financial institution and he tells me everything that goes on.  The NFL and gambling industry turns over money well into the billions.  You think they are going to leave that sort of money up to chance?? As I said go read a book! 
If you think this guy is the man you should go to his covers page and read the comments he posts.  He has not been right about any of his predictions.  He called for a Denver blowout, Louisville easy to cover over Houston, Chicago to cover last week versus Detroit, and SF as a "no brainer" over Carolina in SF. You can also ad in his Georgia Tech prediction with Oklahoma to cover the +14 at Baylor (also as a "no brainer), and the Texans to cover versus the Raiders.  Read these threads for yourself.  I am making none of this up.  He has literally won 10% of his picks, so please tell me how he is the man?

Also, I understand that sports gambling is a huge industry.  I have been doing this for almost 20 years, and I understand that there is line manipulation by Vegas that may prey upon public opinion and psychological factors.  But when you start believing that football games are rigged you are deluding yourself.  This isn't basketball where one or two players can throw a game.  There are 30 people on the field including officials, and a bevy of coaches having an influence on every play.  The kind of manipulation you speak would require numerous people to be involved.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:12:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevopa:

If you think this guy is the man you should go to his covers page and read the comments he posts.  He has not been right about any of his predictions.  He called for a Denver blowout, Louisville easy to cover over Houston, Chicago to cover last week versus Detroit, and SF as a "no brainer" over Carolina in SF. You can also ad in his Georgia Tech prediction with Oklahoma to cover the +14 at Baylor (also as a "no brainer), and the Texans to cover versus the Raiders.  Read these threads for yourself.  I am making none of this up.  He has literally won 10% of his picks, so please tell me how he is the man?

Also, I understand that sports gambling is a huge industry.  I have been doing this for almost 20 years, and I understand that there is line manipulation by Vegas that may prey upon public opinion and psychological factors.  But when you start believing that football games are rigged you are deluding yourself.  This isn't basketball where one or two players can throw a game.  There are 30 people on the field including officials, and a bevy of coaches having an influence on every play.  The kind of manipulation you speak would require numerous people to be involved.
I say he is the man not because I follow his picks but because I like the way he thinks.  My type of thinking.  I have seen plenty of his posts before and he is consistent with it.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:17:37 PM
NE vs NFC South this year 

3-0 SU 
3-0 ATS 
2-1 O/U 

The only under came from the Bucs where they only scored 3

NE +3  for the Large & Teaser NE +10/OVER 40 for the Medium 

GL EVERYBODY!!  
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:19:11 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by kalrajbains:

I say he is the man not because I follow his picks but because I like the way he thinks.  My type of thinking.  I have seen plenty of his posts before and he is consistent with it.
Ya, he is consistently wrong with his picks, hypocritical from week-to-week in analyzing teams, and an ardent believer that life is fixed!  If he is "in the mind of Vegas" how is it that he is consistently wrong with his picks?  It is my opinion that these forums are designed for us to work in collaboration to beat the books, and getting input from people like MGM detracts from that
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:20:33 PM
If the reason Carolina wins this game is the defense, why has the total gone up more than 3 points?  I've got to think that the totals move has bettors thinking New England puts up points in this game.  If that Carolina's D can give up 23 (the current Pats team total line), they can certainly give up 30+.  The Carolina run D is in the top three but outside of Adrian Peterson and Russell Wilson, there hasn't really been a true top running back on their schedule.  Yeah, San Fran would have liked to run the ball but you need a passing game to spread the defense.  Kaepernick couldn't do it, by the total line move I'm being told Brady will.  Couple that with the 9th best rushing attack in the league and the Pats cover.  

Also, nobody is talking about the Pats putting up 30 in the past four games against much better defenses (PIT 14th, MIA 21st, Jets 8th, NO 4th), than Carolina during their "incredible" 30 ppg run (MIN 30th, STL 19th, TB 15, ATL 26th).  These teams don't exactly have decent offenses either.  They didn't look all that solid against the league's 9th best D, San Fran, only scoring ten and amassing 250 total yards.  Give me a much better offense than anything they've seen in a while headed up by a QB who just doesn't lose in prime time coming off a bye week.  This SHOULD be cake.

The numbers don't lie.  That being said, they haven't made sense in the past. But everything here statistically points to taking the Pats with the points.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:22:43 PM

Lets not get it twisted. The past few weeks the Pats have beat the saints.. and dismantled Pitt! Pitt has acutally been having a pretty good month. Pitt has been playing some good ball. they just beat the lions by 10...Tom Brady off a bye on monday night football ... The only thing not going for him is being away,

The panthers may ahve 5-6 wins in a row or whatever it is but against the bums of the league..atl..min..tb..buffalo ect.. The did beat san fran 10-9 by one..but do you honestly think tom brady is going to put up 9 points? I am sorry but not possible.. Pats should win this one by at least 13 ..I am saying  34-23 Pats with the score being 34-16 up until late in the 4th quarter!

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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:23:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevopa:

If you think this guy is the man you should go to his covers page and read the comments he posts.  He has not been right about any of his predictions.  He called for a Denver blowout, Louisville easy to cover over Houston, Chicago to cover last week versus Detroit, and SF as a "no brainer" over Carolina in SF. You can also ad in his Georgia Tech prediction with Oklahoma to cover the +14 at Baylor (also as a "no brainer), and the Texans to cover versus the Raiders.  Read these threads for yourself.  I am making none of this up.  He has literally won 10% of his picks, so please tell me how he is the man?

Also, I understand that sports gambling is a huge industry.  I have been doing this for almost 20 years, and I understand that there is line manipulation by Vegas that may prey upon public opinion and psychological factors.  But when you start believing that football games are rigged you are deluding yourself.  This isn't basketball where one or two players can throw a game.  There are 30 people on the field including officials, and a bevy of coaches having an influence on every play.  The kind of manipulation you speak would require numerous people to be involved.
 By the way I'm not deluded.  I am a realist.  Money makes the world go round.  All these corporations like NFL MLB NBA NHL are all run by Jewish people.  They use the media to influence you and sell ya BS.  All the big time players on big money are controlled by the industry.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:26:32 PM
Just my theory, so don't be so hurry to slam me but I think New England gets the WIN tonight especially because Denver won last night and these two teams are heading for Sunday night football . Patriots win for the simple reason to make this SNF 's decision more miserable for us to choose.
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#72
Posted: 11/18/2013 1:27:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by stevopa:

Ya, he is consistently wrong with his picks, hypocritical from week-to-week in analyzing teams, and an ardent believer that life is fixed!  If he is "in the mind of Vegas" how is it that he is consistently wrong with his picks?  It is my opinion that these forums are designed for us to work in collaboration to beat the books, and getting input from people like MGM detracts from that
 I agree but there are also people in these forums with their own agenda.  Don't think books wont use ppl to spread misinformation around these forums.  Cos they will.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:27:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by emchu:

Just my theory, so don't be so hurry to slam me but I think New England gets the WIN tonight especially because Denver won last night and these two teams are heading for Sunday night football . Patriots win for the simple reason to make this SNF 's decision more miserable for us to choose.
 Like it!!
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#74
Posted: 11/18/2013 1:31:56 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jdbf23:

Teasers are for losers who dont know wat theyre doing?? I won a 3 team teaser where the teaser points helped me win the saints game.. Anyways pats are the play here.. Carolina overrated.. Cam sucks.. Pats with pts is the play $$$

I might get offended with your statement.  I will admit, I am probably the biggest teaser in this forum and I'm winning.  Actually, I make my living out of teasing football and nba games.  Read all my posts, my wins are above 65%.  Teasing is the only way eliminate the spreads.
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Posted: 11/18/2013 1:33:50 PM
Your right: my guess is that Peyton Manning waited for the game to get real close and have the line in jeopardy before he decided to really get on his game.  He obviously does not care about winning and getting another ring.  Money is the only thing that drives him. 

You are not a realist; you are a dilettante so willing to see things from one side that you ignore the multiple angles at play in every situation.  if you are so enlightened, btw, which direction is the fix going tonight?  This will take all the analysis and guess work away, and we can all win money. 
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