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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Detroit at Green Bay (10/06/2013)
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#1
Posted: 9/29/2013 8:36:09 AM

Away:  Detroit [3-1 ATS]
Home:  Green Bay [1-2 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Lambeau Field

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Detroit:
Passing: Matthew Stafford (1262)
Rushing: Reggie Bush (254)
Receiving: Calvin Johnson (312)

Green Bay:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (1057)
Rushing: James Starks (187)
Receiving: Randall Cobb (290)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 10/1/2013 3:06:51 PM
If you can buy the Lions up to 7 or higher take that in a heartbeat! GB is the most over hyped team in professional football.  You will need the 7 though because the Lions are slated to lose this game.  This NFL regime does everything it can to rig the game for the cherished Packers. Look for it to be tied going into the last minute and a phantom stomp by Suh and a phantom pass interference on Houston then a meltdown by Schwartz will hand GB the win by a closing seconds FG.
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#3
Posted: 10/1/2013 5:37:57 PM

The Scariest 1-2 team out there??? - - by far Green Bay. I think extra rest, Loins just played the Bears tough......

Ehhhh - Gotta go Fudge-Packers by a TD (or by a lot more).........

Bookies know something - - sorry all you Loins fans, but "Discount Double-Check"..............

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#4
Posted: 10/1/2013 5:45:22 PM

this is tough to call.

The lions have played some close games at Lambeau and with Reggie Bush chances are this may be a close game, a 3 or 4 pt victory seems legit. At the same time, Packers have been money after BYE week especially after losing like they did the week before. I believe they are 6-0 ats and 5-1 SU in McCarthy era usually on the road after the BYE but this time they get to be at home. and the two times GB played Detroit at home after the BYE they won  by 7 and 26.

will have to think about this some more..

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#5
Posted: 10/2/2013 4:07:17 PM
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have had their fare share of dominance over the Detroit Lions over the past 3 years, winning 5 of the last 6. But when you take a look at the numbers, it might surprise some that most of the games have been highly competitive.  

Last Year
Det 20 GB 27
GB 24 Det 20

2011
Det 41 GB 45
GB 27 Det 15

2010
GB 3 Det 7
Det 26 GB 28

As you can see, all these games were decided by 7 points or less with the exception of 1 game. Shall we assume that the "well-rested" Packers are very angry that they blew a major opportunity against the Bengals in week 3?....yes.  But that doesn't mean Detroit doesn't have what it takes to keep this a close game.  

In fact, I think the Lions are coming into Lambeau Field with some decent momentum after getting a key divisional win against the Bears. The Packers, on the other hand, are coming off a week 4 bye. Since when is it good to have a bye this early in the season? I think it helped with Jermichael Finely and Eddie Lacy, who had concussions, but typically teams want their byes later in the year when guys are run down and need a break before a playoff push.

With all that being said, I think the Lions will cover this Sunday. They now have a more balanced offense with Reggie Bush and Joique Bell spearheading the ground attack, and they will be up against a Green Bay secondary that looks like they miss the services of Charles Woodson. Green Bay is now 21st in the league against the pass, giving up an average of 311 yards a game through the air.  

I think Detroit keeps this one close, but the Pack still get back to .500. 

Det 24
GB 27 

Good luck

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#6
Posted: 10/2/2013 5:38:55 PM


RODGERS SOLD OUT THE CINCY GAME, HE PROBABLY TO AT LEAST 1/2 mill cash to take the fall. Cant say i wouldnt do the same and screw the players one week, as far as the fans ---- BELIEVE ME, he could care less about the loss, but for the bettors; damn man show some respect you low life.

GB REFUND
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#7
Posted: 10/2/2013 6:25:01 PM

    I will give the Lions their due. It seems like they are certainly clicking now.  This is a "MUST GAME" for the Pack. You can play the Lions if you like, however remember this: Detroit is 1-19 SU on the road in the last 8 years in their division. Personally, I think you're insane!

GREEN BAY  -  7

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#8
Posted: 10/2/2013 7:10:10 PM
Maybe I'm fade material, but I don't get your argument Vue. Do you think the Packers would give any less effort if they were 2-1? These teams hate each other. Don't you think the Lions are tired of losing all these close games for the past 3 years? Who cares about their road record from 8 years ago? Matt Stafford was 17 years old tearing up high school defenses. 

I think the Packers are a solid team, but I just think Detroit is the more improved team from last year, and has the offense to keep up with Green Bay. 

Good luck Vue & I may be a degenerate, but I am not insane. At least one of us won't lose money on this game.
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#9
Posted: 10/2/2013 11:11:34 PM
I was on lions last wk, but fading them here. Classic let down spot for leos, ford jr already running his mouth in a classic another one bites the lions behind moment. Chris houston is lions best cover guy he will probab be out...huge loss..sorry i dont respect bill bentley. remember...they are still the lions, on the road, in lambeau
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#10
Posted: 10/2/2013 11:36:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Masb270:



RODGERS SOLD OUT THE CINCY GAME, HE PROBABLY TO AT LEAST 1/2 mill cash to take the fall. Cant say i wouldnt do the same and screw the players one week, as far as the fans ---- BELIEVE ME, he could care less about the loss, but for the bettors; damn man show some respect you low life.

GB REFUND

Your posts are happy, ttyl
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#11
Posted: 10/2/2013 11:38:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Masb270:



RODGERS SOLD OUT THE CINCY GAME, HE PROBABLY TO AT LEAST 1/2 mill cash to take the fall. Cant say i wouldnt do the same and screw the players one week, as far as the fans ---- BELIEVE ME, he could care less about the loss, but for the bettors; damn man show some respect you low life.

GB REFUND

Let's try this again....

Your posts are gg.a.yy, ttyl
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#12
Posted: 10/3/2013 12:43:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

Maybe I'm fade material, but I don't get your argument Vue. Do you think the Packers would give any less effort if they were 2-1? These teams hate each other. Don't you think the Lions are tired of losing all these close games for the past 3 years? Who cares about their road record from 8 years ago? Matt Stafford was 17 years old tearing up high school defenses. 

I think the Packers are a solid team, but I just think Detroit is the more improved team from last year, and has the offense to keep up with Green Bay. 

Good luck Vue & I may be a degenerate, but I am not insane. At least one of us won't lose money on this game.

Sorry Sammy! Got a little too cranked up there,with the computer kicking out figs. You might just be right-Good luck on your play.

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#13
Posted: 10/3/2013 8:52:57 AM
Excellent points Sammy
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#14
Posted: 10/3/2013 9:06:49 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

    I will give the Lions their due. It seems like they are certainly clicking now.  This is a "MUST GAME" for the Pack. You can play the Lions if you like, however remember this: Detroit is 1-19 SU on the road in the last 8 years in their division. Personally, I think you're insane!

GREEN BAY  -  7


correct me if i'm wrong, but GB -7 isn't a SU bet... why don't you post those numbers
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#15
Posted: 10/3/2013 12:02:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by babygus17:

I was on lions last wk, but fading them here. Classic let down spot for leos, ford jr already running his mouth in a classic another one bites the lions behind moment. Chris houston is lions best cover guy he will probab be out...huge loss..sorry i dont respect bill bentley. remember...they are still the lions, on the road, in lambeau

Lions fan here and this is spot on
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#16
Posted: 10/3/2013 2:00:42 PM
Aaron Rodgers is 

5-0 SU 4-1 ATS off bye week
13-3 ATS off SU loss
9-2 ATS of posting a sub 85 QB rating
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#17
Posted: 10/3/2013 4:10:27 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by strozey:

Aaron Rodgers is 

5-0 SU 4-1 ATS off bye week
13-3 ATS off SU loss
9-2 ATS of posting a sub 85 QB rating




....perfect conditions for a Lion's cover here.
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#18
Posted: 10/3/2013 10:51:17 PM
Green Bay off of a bye in a must win divisional game at home. Green Bay is rested and at home. Lacy is back. I would be weary folks. I think Rodgers and the Pack put a ton of points on the scoreboard. The Lions will score quite a bit too. 

Love the Over 53.5- not sure about the line. I would go Pack -7

GL
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#19
Posted: 10/4/2013 2:03:18 AM
Trends that go back 3,4,5 or far more years in a league that has this high of a player turnover rate are almost useless. What does GB's running game when Ahmed Green was hauling the ball have to do with this weeks matchup ??


Sure you could make a case that DET is built to play and win in a climate controlled environment under the roof on a well manicured artificial surface. But in the same respect it's not like GB are a group of untalented grunts that were assembled to grind out games in the trenches and win by pounding the ground and burning clock while playing on a saggy sandlot.

To me this line looks like it's a few years old and is begging for the pub to back a GB team thats always good and a DET team thats always bad.


I'll take the TD+ and possibly the ML and look for a close game with plenty of points put on the board.








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#20
Posted: 10/4/2013 2:10:41 AM
As always $ammyAce your posts are well worth a read. I have to say sans disrespect I forgot to look for you earlier this year. But I'm glad I've gotten some insight from you the past couple weeks.


But as the boys say on MNF....C'MON man...."Maybe I'm fade material" is the only questionable comment I've seen you post in years.

Thanx for the constantly helpful and educational  input week after week....


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#21
Posted: 10/4/2013 6:29:30 AM
Something all bettors must keep in mind!

As well as headlines and sports shows made the Lions look after beating the game, they still only managed to win by 8. Most points came off dumb throws Cutler should n7ot have made. Rodgers off a weeks rest wont make the same mistakes. So taking away the turnover points for Detroit makes me believe this game is all about the Packers. After Detroit screwed my College and NFL 7 team teaser by one point (had Bears +7) im going to bet once more against Detroit  and make my play of the week Green Bay
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#22
Posted: 10/4/2013 3:36:16 PM

Detroit keeps it close

LIONS + 7

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#23
Posted: 10/4/2013 5:43:48 PM
I get the coming off a bye week and Lacy,CM3, Finley, Burnett coming back and healthy or as healthy as lead to believe, however, as a long time loyal and all too often blind fan of them, I cannot see them giving 7 pts with the defense and lack of pass rush. I have a heart and a brain and my brain says Det wins this outright...how is this possible...that's why I don't bet them this season.....Good Luck.
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#24
Posted: 10/4/2013 6:48:40 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by osu200200:


correct me if i'm wrong, but GB -7 isn't a SU bet... why don't you post those numbers

I just endeavored to point out how futile the Lions efforts have been in the recent past SU. Sorry- you want the Lions spread record? At 3-16 not much better!

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#25
Posted: 10/4/2013 7:07:28 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DDH420:

Trends that go back 3,4,5 or far more years in a league that has this high of a player turnover rate are almost useless. What does GB's running game when Ahmed Green was hauling the ball have to do with this weeks matchup ??


Sure you could make a case that DET is built to play and win in a climate controlled environment under the roof on a well manicured artificial surface. But in the same respect it's not like GB are a group of untalented grunts that were assembled to grind out games in the trenches and win by pounding the ground and burning clock while playing on a saggy sandlot.

To me this line looks like it's a few years old and is begging for the pub to back a GB team thats always good and a DET team thats always bad.


I'll take the TD+ and possibly the ML and look for a close game with plenty of points put on the board.

I seen your post and I just had to comment. Trends, in and of themselves, as a sole capping tool, don't have that great a validity in making a wager.  However, used as a complimentary capping source, to supplement today's current situations, and other stats, they merely validate the misconceptions of number "crunching" If  stats always told the true story, we all would be living like rich men, on our own island in the Pacific. The Lions futile recent efforts in Green Bay have been well documented. As to your comment about high team  personel turnover rates, that is simply not true. Yearly, on a 53 man roster, only a handful of new player make the squad. And of those players, only a few have actual impact to drastically change game results over the course of a season.






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