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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: New Orleans at Atlanta (11/29/2012)
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#1
Posted: 11/27/2012 1:53:13 AM

Away:  New Orleans [6-5 ATS]
Home:  Atlanta [6-4-1 ATS]

Game Time: 8:20 PM
Stadium: Georgia Dome

Recent Meetings:
11/11/12 - ATL 27 vs. NO 31

Team Leaders:

New Orleans:
Passing: Drew Brees (3333)
Rushing: Pierre Thomas (341)
Receiving: Marques Colston (757)

Atlanta:
Passing: Matt Ryan (3425)
Rushing: Michael Turner (595)
Receiving: Roddy White (1003)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 11/27/2012 2:18:17 AM
Take away those 2 picks last week and the Saints come marching home. Get in early and take the +3.5 before the line moves down which it will. Brees will pick apart the falcons secondary. Yeah the saints D is nothing to be proud about but Ryan will not be able to keep up. 

you heard it here first.
DB aka DA Best!!
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#3
Posted: 11/27/2012 8:30:09 AM

75% of the public money on Saints and the line holds +3.5 so we shall keep a eye on it. looks like Atl -3.0 buy the half.

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#4
Posted: 11/27/2012 8:31:32 AM
DB aka DOUCHEBAG
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#5
Posted: 11/27/2012 10:46:54 AM
I like the 3.5 an the saints over a shaky secondary, im layin 1100 on saints
Posted using a mobile device.
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#6
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:06:49 AM

needs further analysis, however off the cuff thinking this comes just under the total by a score.

line of thinking comes from both teams just finished playing stellar defenses, and will in turn play the same sort of game by shoring up thier secondaries focusing on the run mainly to open up the throwing game. where i would argue the falcons are slightly more dependent on the air game than the saints.  again just off the cuff not locked in, just something to mulll through before selecting.

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#7
Posted: 11/27/2012 11:11:45 AM
Doc agrees. This total is getting near a college type number. Might even go to 57 or 58. Too high. One or two blank quarters and your broke son. Falcons awesome record? and saints beat down last week fueling possible saints victory. Hmmm...going back to the lab
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#8
Posted: 11/27/2012 4:24:10 PM
When these teams played only 3 weeks ago in week 10, I was all over the Saints getting a point or two at home. The Saints were coming off an impressive Monday Night win over the Eagles (before the Eagles completely fell apart). In that game, they reminded me a lot of the team that went 13-3 this last year. They ran the ball effectively, their defense created turnovers, and Drew Brees played his typical A-game. The Falcons, on the other hand, had just squeaked out another close one at home against the Cowboys. They looked fatigued in general, and looked like the emotional toll of going 8-0 was starting to wear them down.  It seems strange to say this, but it felt like they needed to drop a game just to get back to reality. 

Well, the tables have turned once again, and its time to lay the points with the better team, the 10-1 Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons nearly won that matchup in week 10, but the Saints just edged them out and made more big plays. Matt Ryan was excellent, completing over 65% of his passes and throwing for over 400 yards. But the Saints surprised everyone by aggressively using Mark Ingram and a well-rested Chris Ivory. The two combined for 139 yards on 23 carries. In the end, the Falcons nearly completed the game-winning TD pass, but lost a close one 27-31.

The Saints are obviously better than their 5-6 record, but last week, they once again reminded me that there are some major flaws on the defensive side of the ball that will prevent them from being a consistent football team. If the Saints aren't creating turnovers than this team is in big time trouble. I just won't allow myself to forget that this is a team that lost earlier in the year to the 1-9 Chiefs and are 2-3 on the road this year. One road win was an impressive come from behind win against the Bucs (the Bucs almost had the game-tying TD twice). And the other win came against the Raiders without McFadden.  

I think the Saints are in trouble this week, and might find themselves out of the playoff hunt with a 5-7 record after Thursday night. The Falcons are coming off a divisional win against the Tampa Bay Bucs, and have their eyes set on the Division Championship and home field advantage through out the playoffs (A win and a Tampa loss would clinch the division). The Falcons know how important home field advantage is as they are 5-0 at home this year and Matt Ryan is sporting a 31-4 career mark at the Georgia Dome. The 49ers are probably the only real threat at 8-2-1, but a win by the Falcons would get them one step closer. Plus it would practically eliminate their division rival Saints.

What stands out most to me in this match is that the Saints are coming off a loss to a very physical 49er team, and will only have 3 days to heal and prepare for this match at the Georgia Dome. These are two teams that are going to be playing with totally different momentum at the kickoff. An Atlanta team coming off an impressive road win, that is trying to clinch the division and home field advantage. And a Saints team that just got dominated by the 49ers, and is trying to get back to .500 for the 2nd time this year. I am sure the Saints are also starting to realize that they shot themselves in the foot too many times this year with some embarrassing losses, and have no one but themselves to blame for their predicament. 

Once you also take into account the Falcons track record at home and you have a recipe for another loss for the Saints. I don't think Chris Ivory will be breaking out any 50-yard runs this time around. Not with Sean Weatherspoon back in the lineup. I look for the Falcons to clamp down here and keep the Saints in check just like they did with Tampa last week. I was more than surprised that they were able to hold Doug Martin to 50 yards on 20 carries. Getting Weatherspoon back is huge for this defense.

I am obviously concerned about the status of Asante Samuel and Dunta Robinson given the pass-happy Saints offense, but you would hope these guys are gamers given this is a primetime game. If they play (both listed as questionable), I am going with the Dirty Birds. The Falcons haven't won a game at home by more than one score all year.  I look for that to change this week as they avenge their previous loss and deliver a knockout punch to the Saints. 

My Prediction:
Saints   17 
Falcons 34

good luck

   
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#9
Posted: 11/27/2012 4:57:41 PM

THE SAINTS HAVE WON FOUR IN A ROW OVER THE FALCONS SO YOU CAN THROW THAT GEORGIA DOME RECORD OUT THE WINDOW.

AND 76 POINTS SCORED AGAINST AN OVERRATED FALCON DEFENSE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE FALCONS STILL DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER.  BOTH TEAMS PLAYED PHYSICAL GAMES LAST WEEK SO THROW THAT OUT AS WELL.  IN FACT I WOULD ARGUE THE SAINTS OUTSCORED THE 49ERS OFFENSE BUT TWO RARE PICK 6S COST BREES AND THE SAINTS.

SAINTS +3.5

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#10
Posted: 11/27/2012 5:13:33 PM
Drew Brees hasn't thrown for 300 yards in 5 weeks. The Falcons defense is a solid 13th against the pass.
While Matt Ryan has really lit it up, even surpassing Brees by total yards this year and the Saints have the 30th ranked pass defense.
After coming off a hard fought emotional win against the Bucs and losing to the Saints already once, it's hard to think they get swept by the Saints at home. 
The Falcons however weren't able to cover against The Raiders (who did pretty well against that defense), The Panthers and Arizona with that struggling offense but of course Arizona also had the 2nd best pass defense in the NFL.
Divisional games, always seem to be closer than betters expect, pointing towards games such as Houston/Jax.
Unless we see a turn over meltdown, I see a very close Falcons victory by 1-3 points.
They have won by the skin of their teeth a few times this year, regardless of the skill level, of the other team at home.
I see no reason to think that will change especially in a divisional match up.
Saints +3.5 and no less. I'm playing 2 units on it myself.
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#11
Posted: 11/27/2012 6:17:43 PM
Saint down to fourth string right tackle. Last one got left. If Falcon smart, they gonna pull move from Karate Kid, like when Ralph Macchio get knee elbow in half. Or when sweep leg! Once Falcongate do that one, they gonna get clear bowling lane at Bree, bowl strike after strike until pin fall off shoulder! 
Then Mr. BC Bud University QB Matt Ryan gonna light up Saint secondary 400 yard! This one gonna be close, but Dirty Birds get win for playing smart and take one intentional injury fine for team!

Final Outcome of Grame

ATL Farcon    New Olreans Saint
      38                         31
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#12
Posted: 11/27/2012 7:25:42 PM

I'm glad everyone seems to be pounding New Orleans over Atlanta because they won earlier. That's what you're supposed to do, defend your home field, especially in your division. The difference between Atlanta and New Orleans is that Atlanta can make defensive adjustments from the last meeting and New Orleans can't. They are statistically one of the worst defenses in NFL history that have to try and win a road game against a 10-1 team. The other thing I factor in is that Coach Smith is not going to let this team have a shot at getting into the playoffs, especially if he can step on their throat now. I would be more worried if Sean Payton was on the sidelines, but he's not. Power rankings have Atlanta a -3.5 favorite before factoring in home field advantage, which in this case would have to make ATL a -6.5 to -7 favorite. I'm buying the .5 unless it dropps on it's own....

Atlanta -3

GL everyone!

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#13
Posted: 11/27/2012 8:07:53 PM
BIRDS HAVE BOTH CORNERS HURT. ILL TAKE THAT 3 N HOOK ALL DAY.
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#14
Posted: 11/27/2012 8:20:09 PM

This is an under straight up.  56 points is too many, it will miss by a field goal or so.

Average Road and Home scoring works out to 50.6 PPG... 

Good luck to all I'm pounding the UNDER on this one   

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#15
Posted: 11/27/2012 8:50:47 PM

Heavy lean toward under at this point.  Too many points for NFL game.  - http://www.mysportsgambler.com/

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#16
Posted: 11/28/2012 12:12:16 AM
this one is tough and i read all the posts so far and everyone has great points.. i dont know who to pick here..i like the fact that i dont think the saints will beat the falcons twice this year considering how aweful the saints have been.. both teams coming off physical games last week so throw that out the window.. i do think the more desperate team in this is the saints.. they know if they lose this game there season is over..these 2 teams are always playing close and usually comes down right to the end... so you have to take the 3.5 right??  what else do you guys think??
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#17
Posted: 11/28/2012 12:13:26 AM
i also think that if it werent for those turnovers the saints would have beat the niners
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#18
Posted: 11/28/2012 1:28:48 AM
both falcons corners banged up. a soft run defense as it is.......

saints have yet to prove they can stop anybody...

drew brees is good for 28+ against a banged up secondary.  matty ice and julio are back on the same page... roddy drawing the free safety and ya still got gonzalez running up the middle of the field.  aka the falcons will have no trouble putting up pts... especially after a short week for a saints defense that will be traveling... on short rest.... we all saw what happened last thirsday(thanksgiving) when all 3 thursday games went 65+ points scored. 

if i had to pick a side, im all over the falcons minus a field goal with their home crowd. all im saying is over 55.5 is the play here. 

prediction:   saints 31 falcons 37
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#19
Posted: 11/28/2012 5:18:59 AM
My local has Saints +4 and Total at 56.  Thoughts on a 6 pt teaser which would give me Saints +10 and Total at 52 or 60 whichever way I take it.
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#20
Posted: 11/28/2012 5:22:25 AM
EDIT: He does 4 pts on totals
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#21
Posted: 11/28/2012 8:53:21 AM
Atlanta -7 Anybody can scores against the sain Atlanta play good at home.
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#22
Posted: 11/28/2012 9:11:26 AM
Man this is a tough one but NO needs this game a lot more than ATL so i'll go with the more desperate team in the Saints.

GL all.
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#23
Posted: 11/28/2012 10:50:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by forkball:

THE SAINTS HAVE WON FOUR IN A ROW OVER THE FALCONS SO YOU CAN THROW THAT GEORGIA DOME RECORD OUT THE WINDOW.

AND 76 POINTS SCORED AGAINST AN OVERRATED FALCON DEFENSE LEADS ME TO BELIEVE THE FALCONS STILL DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER.  BOTH TEAMS PLAYED PHYSICAL GAMES LAST WEEK SO THROW THAT OUT AS WELL.  IN FACT I WOULD ARGUE THE SAINTS OUTSCORED THE 49ERS OFFENSE BUT TWO RARE PICK 6S COST BREES AND THE SAINTS.

SAINTS +3.5

Good points, but I just don't see how you could compare the 49er offensive line and the 49er front 7 with that of Tampa Bay. The 49ers are a much more physical team on both sides of the ball. Everyone talks about Tampa's #1 rush defense, but one of the primary reasons they are giving up so few rushing yards is that their secondary is so bad that teams prefer to air it out on them.

I think one of the main reasons the Saints beat the Falcons in week 10 was because their running game was phenomenal. Ivory playing in only his second week of the year was fresh and it showed when ripped off a 56-yard TD run. Ivory and Ingram combined for 140 yards rushing on 23 carries. I just can't see the Saints duplicating that effort on the road with Sean Weatherspoon back in the lineup. Not to mention, they were just banging around with the 49er front-7 a few days ago. With Weatherspoon in the lineup, the Falcons held Doug Martin to 50 yards on 20 carries.

While I wouldn't call them an elite unit, their defense packs a little more punch with Weatherspoon in the lineup. If Asante and Dunta are playing, or if atleast one of them gives it a go, then I am laying the points with Atlanta.

Good luck

   

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#24
Posted: 11/28/2012 12:18:02 PM

Although the saints hit a speedbump last week, I like their chances here.  They are in a spot now that they cannot afford a loss.  Must win situation or fold it up for the year.  something tells me the saints are not done..  and will start another big string of W's this week!!!  Taking the 3.5 and the Saints.

NO +3.5

NO 33 - Atl 27

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#25
Posted: 11/28/2012 4:40:16 PM
well im pretty good at these things guys, look at some good hard facts, 1st off the under hits 70% of the time on thursday night excluding thanksgiving games, neither team has had a game go 56 pts either...lean way towards the under....as far as the spread goes, when 2 teams in a division play each other who r playoffs teams usually they split, atl won the 1st one...atl clinches a playoff spot with a win this week, teams who can clinch a playoff spot early tend to drop an egg that game, saints r in a must win situation to keep playoff hopes alive...all this being said i go:

saints 31
falcons 20
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