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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Green Bay at New York (11/25/2012)
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#1
Posted: 11/20/2012 12:36:05 AM

Away:  Green Bay [5-5 ATS]
Home:  N.Y. Giants [4-5-1 ATS]

Game Time: 8:20 PM
Stadium: MetLife Stadium

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Green Bay:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (2619)
Rushing: Alex Green (272)
Receiving: Jordy Nelson (577)

N.Y. Giants:
Passing: Eli Manning (2641)
Rushing: Ahmad Bradshaw (675)
Receiving: Victor Cruz (743)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 11/20/2012 11:53:39 AM

I told everyone the GMEN were fade material prior to their road game versus the Bengals. My experience in situational betting told me that the game spelt trouble for the Giants. The Giants were recently dominated up front by the Pittsburgh Steelers and playing some lousy football on both sides of the ball. The Bengals, on the other hand, were also reeling and needed to right their ship as they had lost 4 consecutive games (their last two being at home). The Bengals simply needed and wanted it more, and the Giants wanted a bye week to lick their wounds.    

Well, this week I am going to zig zag my way back on the Super Bowl Champion Giants. The talk of the town in both the New York and national media has been the "soft" Giant defense and the "dead arm" of Eli Manning. I don't get it, is Eli pitching for the Yankees? This talk has been largely exaggerated, and the bottom line is that its a long season filled with peaks and valleys. The Giants were a bit fatigued and needed to hit the reset button, and the bye week couldn't have come at a better time. Eli actually spent some time with familly in Mississippi, and I'm sure some home cooking did him some good.

I've taken a very close look at the last two matchups between these two teams. The Giants beat down the Packers in Green Bay in the divisional round last year. And the Gmen should have won the regular season matchup at MetLife Stadium in December of last year. There was some controversial officiating in that matchup and it took a last second fg from Mason Crosby for the Pack to win the game 38-35 (Crosby has looked awful lately). In that regular season matchup, Clay Matthews also had a 40 yard pick-6 (I am not sure what his status will be Sunday Night).

Now everyone will talk about the "revenge factor" and the public is going to be all over the underdog Packers for this reason and because the public just loves Aaron Rodgers. I am going to tell you that "revenge" is a highly overrated factor when determining the outcome of a game. Just look at what the Giants did to the 49ers earlier this year. Shouldn't the 49ers have avenged their loss from the NFC Championship Game?? The Giants have also heard Clay Matthews make public comments that Green Bay beat themselves in the playoffs last year, and that they are the better team. Both teams will definitely have something to prove this Sunday. Not to mention, the Giants had a full bye week of listening to how soft their defense is, and how Eli has "a dead arm". 

The matchups are far more important in predicting the outcome of this game. The Giants achilles heel, in my opinion, is the middle of their defense (middle linebacker and defensive tackle). Thats why the Steelers had so much success running the ball against them. The Giants defensive line is very athletic, but I think most would agree that they are better pass rushers then they are run-stoppers. Now in come the high flying Packers, with absolutly no running game whatsoever (24th ranked in the league). In fact in the last two matchups, Aaron Rodgers led the team in rushing for both games!!!  Are you kidding me Green Bay? That stinks of weakness. With the injury to Cedric Benson, this team has had very little success running the ball, and that is music to the Giants ears. While the Giants secondary is far from an elite unit, the Giants defense would much rather pin their ears back and rush the passer, and take their chances with their average secondary making a play on a ball. 

Green Bay will of course also be without the services of Charles Woodson and I have been patiently waiting for an opportunity like this to fade them. I really wanted to take Detroit last week, but I was afraid of the Lions self destructing and beating themselves (which predicatably happened again). I don't see that happening with Tom Coughlin's team coming off the bye this week.  

I look for Eli and the Giants offense to get back on track against a depleted Packer defense that will be playing a back-to-back road game. I also think the Giants defense bends, but doesn't break, and creates a couple turnovers against the pass-happy Pack. I also wouldn't be surprised if the Pack get an unexpected dose of the Giants explosive rookie, David Wilson. This bye week might have been a good opportunity for Couglin to work on pass protection with the young back, and I would not pay too much attention to Ahmad Bradshaw's status on the injury report.

I am going large on my hometown GMEN!  Lets go BIG BLUE!!!!                     

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#3
Posted: 11/21/2012 1:50:33 AM
Green Bay Packers + 2.5 the dog of the week...
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#4
Posted: 11/21/2012 3:38:15 PM

   The G-men will never know what just ran over them!  Might prove to be a  bit of an embarrasment on Prime Time.

GREEN BAY  +  2.5

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#5
Posted: 11/21/2012 3:54:53 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

   The G-men will never know what just ran over them!  Might prove to be a  bit of an embarrasment on Prime Time.

GREEN BAY  +  2.5

The only embarrassing thing I see is your record against the spread last week.  If you're gonna post a pick, why don't you do us all a favor and give us your rationale for liking a particular side or total. 
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#6
Posted: 11/21/2012 4:09:32 PM
No Clay Matthews...Sam Shields probably not going to be back this week...no Jennings as usual.

Giants -3

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#7
Posted: 11/21/2012 6:02:06 PM

Giants been playing bad of late..........embarassing themselves.

Packers been playing good of late........winning ugly.

Which team do you buy stock in? I see a trend.

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#8
Posted: 11/21/2012 7:01:01 PM
this game is giving me headaches.......no pick
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#9
Posted: 11/21/2012 8:50:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

The only embarrassing thing I see is your record against the spread last week.  If you're gonna post a pick, why don't you do us all a favor and give us your rationale for liking a particular side or total. 

    

4-3 is embarrassing. It's equally embarrassing when you come on here with your 90 something posts spouting a textbooks worth of drivel, that doesn't mean squat when you lose. Stop coming on these threads like your a freakin' expert. Been doing the game before you were born, Son!

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#10
Posted: 11/21/2012 10:01:34 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

    

4-3 is embarrassing. It's equally embarrassing when you come on here with your 90 something posts spouting a textbooks worth of drivel, that doesn't mean squat when you lose. Stop coming on these threads like your a freakin' expert. Been doing the game before you were born, Son!

Lol.  I finally got you to respond to a post.  Good luck and happy thanksgiving vue. You still didn't explain why you like the Pack?  What good is a pick if it doesn't come with an explanation?  Are we supposed to trust your nerdy database?  
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#11
Posted: 11/21/2012 10:18:28 PM
And by the way, I went 4-1 last week. I took the bills, cardinals, rams, and 49ers & wrote really long explanations on why I liked each one.  I think most people appreciate my take.  We all make mistakes in this game, it's impossible to be perfect.  
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#12
Posted: 11/22/2012 1:03:14 AM
Sammy_Ace. I look forward and appreciate  your explanation on each game. Please keep up the good work and continue doing what you do!!!
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#13
Posted: 11/22/2012 1:04:56 AM
These teams are roughly equal when playing well, but Eli has been mired in a slump lately.  I don't think GB is an easy team to break out of slump against, so I would lean on the Packers moneyline here.  At the very least, 2.34 is nice value in a game that is probably 50-50 for a winner.
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#14
Posted: 11/22/2012 2:18:03 AM
GB +2.5 (.5u) - with something brewing with Manning's arm, there'll probably more running than usual. I'm betting the edge goes to Rogers vs. the Giant secondary.  Even tho the gman are coming off a bye at home facing a Mathews/Woodsen-less Pack, I'm siding with the Pack anyway. SCORE: Packers 24 - Giants 21.
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#15
Posted: 11/22/2012 2:33:16 AM
Packers  +2.5
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#16
Posted: 11/22/2012 3:33:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

And by the way, I went 4-1 last week. I took the bills, cardinals, rams, and 49ers & wrote really long explanations on why I liked each one.  I think most people appreciate my take.  We all make mistakes in this game, it's impossible to be perfect.  

Great thoughts Sammy. Like the Giants also for the same reasons you do. Disrespected defending champs, bye week to refocus. Gmen get back on track here with a big statement win. 

Love reading your thoughts every week, any opinion on the Atl/TB game? I think the Bucs come up big at home in a massive divisional tilt.


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#17
Posted: 11/22/2012 3:52:37 PM

I really appreciate Sammy Ace calling out Covers biggest doosh aka Vue for never giving a decent analysis or providing any good reason for alot of his loser picks.  Just wish guys like Vue would leave Covers and stick to managing that counter at 7-11.

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#18
Posted: 11/22/2012 9:12:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by joedaddy76:

I really appreciate Sammy Ace calling out Covers biggest doosh aka Vue for never giving a decent analysis or providing any good reason for alot of his loser picks.  Just wish guys like Vue would leave Covers and stick to managing that counter at 7-11.

 

Where you been hiding Boy? Where the hell you been hiding since 2007, and then decide to resurface. I don't mind if Sammy jumps on me. He has credibilty, and makes a solid effort on this site. You sir, are a NOBODY to be calling people out. You once made  the comment before on where all the veterans went to. Most of them are on the college threads, and the rest left the NFL threads so they wouldn't have to put up with the childish BS from people like you. And thanks for following me- I take that as a compliment, sc mbag!

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#19
Posted: 11/22/2012 9:36:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

Lol.  I finally got you to respond to a post.  Good luck and happy thanksgiving vue. You still didn't explain why you like the Pack?  What good is a pick if it doesn't come with an explanation?  Are we supposed to trust your nerdy database?  

Hey Sammy,  nobody tears a game apart, & analyizes it better than you! Hell son, I even enjoy reading them. And yes, you and the other doubters should believe in my database. It only happens to be one of the most respected, commercially available ones in the country. It's run by a professional capper, and he even has bookies, using it. Hoped you enjoyed your turkey!

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#20
Posted: 11/22/2012 9:47:05 PM
There is much more value on some of these totals and sides on different games for me to think about betting this game. Way to many variables here. Obstaining on this.
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#21
Posted: 11/22/2012 11:16:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:

Lol.  I finally got you to respond to a post.  Good luck and happy thanksgiving vue. You still didn't explain why you like the Pack?  What good is a pick if it doesn't come with an explanation?  Are we supposed to trust your nerdy database?  

Despite all of the "In House" arguing in this thread (isn't it always us against the books???)

I'm inclined to take the Packers and the points. Why, you ask???

First off, where's their running game?? The one-two punch of Bradshaw and Jacobs has lost a lot of it's luster, since Jacobs left for the Niners, hasn't it?

Secondly, I think Eli is missing his key receivers that left - with Hixon and Nicks dinged up pretty much all season, who does he have to rely on besides Victor Cruz? How great would it be to have a Manningham, or a Steve Smith, or when they had the chance at Plaxico Burress? Yes, Plaxico Burress.......

Thirdly - Andy Dalton just picked this secondary apart - -  21/30, 200 yards and 4 TD's, no picks................... Andy Dalton.......... of the Bungles............... Andy...................... Dalton...............

 So, what do you think last year's MVP Aaron Rodgers will do to this secondary???????????

See, we all don't need an encyclopedia's worth of "analysys" to shift the public our way, now do we??????????

Packers +2.5

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#22
Posted: 11/23/2012 2:21:20 AM
Well i must agree with VUE here i believe the Packs will win and cover in this game, still there is a fair chance for a great game that can change directions at any given point during the match, we need to acknowledge Packs vs Giants on the field it is indeed a tough one here. Anyways VUE one question, if you were to choose 8 lines for a parlay what will this lines be? Happy holidays all and GL for the weekend.
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#23
Posted: 11/23/2012 4:00:09 AM
This is not a hard game. It just took a minute to see through the illusion here. The winner of this game will be the Giants. As for them covering the spread though, I have no clue.
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#24
Posted: 11/23/2012 8:40:00 AM
Hey fellas, now that Dallas lost, I like the Giants even more. All the Giants were def watching yesterday and i know Dallas losing was a big shot to the arm. Take a look at the Gmen schedule coming up:

At Washington
New Orleans
At Atlanta
At Baltimore
Philly

The only easy game on that schedule is Philly and they lost to them earlier this year!! A win by the Giants here brings their record to 7-4 and puts them in the drivers seat in the East.  They could literally lose their next 3 and just beat Philly and that should be enough to win the division. The Packers are a great team and I've had my success backing them multiple times after that rough first 4 games of the year, but without Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, I think they are going to really struggle to stop a well rested Giant team that matches up well on both sides of the ball. If and when those guys return, I will be back on that cheesehead bandwagon. And I don't think it's fair or smart to judge Eli based on how he's played the last 3 games. He's still putting together a solid year, and  I am really confident he will right his ship Sunday night.

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#25
Posted: 11/23/2012 1:25:14 PM

This game means more for the G-Men then the Packers and keeping Jennings,CM3 out is a no brainer and having Woodson out is a blessing in disguise.Absolutely no reason for the Pack to chance these guys re-injuring themselves in this one when the games that will decide their position in the play-offs rests with the division games remaining.I expect to see a very vanilla offense..run,run,run even if they can't to keep Rodgers safe and the defense to simply soak up mentally what may come again later on.I'm a Packer fan and I'm all in on the G-men to get this one.

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