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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (11/08/2012)
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#1
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:42:54 AM

Away:  Indianapolis [5-3 ATS]
Home:  Jacksonville [4-4 ATS]

Game Time: 8:20 PM
Stadium: EverBank Field

Recent Meetings:
09/23/12 - JAC 22 vs. IND 17

Team Leaders:

Indianapolis:
Passing: Andrew Luck (2404)
Rushing: Donald Brown (319)
Receiving: Reggie Wayne (835)

Jacksonville:
Passing: Blaine Gabbert (1429)
Rushing: Maurice Jones-Drew (414)
Receiving: Cecil Shorts (456)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 11/6/2012 1:09:35 AM
Jags +3 for me.  Don't let the small spread fool y'all now!
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#3
Posted: 11/6/2012 2:42:01 AM
Jags are pure trash on both sides of the ball. Give me a Colts team in a revenge game that's playing inspired football for an ill head coach. Jags average margin of defeat at home this year is 23 points. This line is off. If MJD was healthy it should be at Colts -3 seeing how he owns the Colts. In my opinion he holds 1.5-2 points in a line. Get the value now
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#4
Posted: 11/6/2012 3:03:21 AM
This one a trap fishy line here..
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#5
Posted: 11/6/2012 3:59:26 AM
I'm not going to over think it. The books wonder why they're getting destroyed on certain non primetime games the past couple weeks. When 80-90% percent of the action is on one side it either means the line is off to begin with or it isn't being moved enough to attract action on the other side. And I believe that's been the case the past couple of weeks in certain games.
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#6
Posted: 11/6/2012 7:32:55 AM
You know why the Jags won last time in Indy right?  It's simple and only one reason alone and that's MJD.  When someone runs all over you for 177 rushing yards and a TD, there's a good chance you'll end up winning.  Yeah their red zone offense sucks and only 2 offensive TDs and the rest FGs.  

BUT....

Guess who's not playing????

That's right, take out MJD out of the last game and they would've had to rely solely on Gabbert and he sucks.   

No MJD to get you those hard earned yards means Gabbert needs to pass more and they are the league WORST averaging only 171 yards per game.   It's not going to get any better for him this game.  Sadly Jennings is no MJD averaging only a disgusting 32.6YPG and only 1 TD in the last 6 games.  Don't see him as a threat to Indy this week.

Look for the the nice revenge "shove this up your behind" game, and I'll do it back to you in your house this time around.   

Indy covers easily this time around.  Gabbert won't be able to keep up and cope with Lucky throwing at least 2-3 TDs yet in another game.  

Also how does this game smell fishy?  First time around they had to be giving points since it was in Indy but usually the Jags plays Indy close, but that's with MJD.  No MJD and it's a whole another beast.  This is being played in Jacksonville and the Jags beat them the first time around so they can't make this -7 or anything.  I can see the oddsmakers' reasoning on this spread for this game.  

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#7
Posted: 11/6/2012 8:36:55 AM
I hate this season how can the lines b off so bad I put out parlay cards at my bar I only took n 2gs and paid out 11gs what is that everybody hit I mean everybody I pray this wk is better so I guess lets go jags smh 
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#8
Posted: 11/6/2012 8:37:38 AM
I just wanted 2 vent sorry 
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#9
Posted: 11/6/2012 9:17:42 AM

Another FAVORITE win... keep pounding the Favorites on Prime time til it's back to UNDERDOGS!

 

Or fade the public.. :)

 

Two ugly teams playing... possible small bet for Jags.

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#10
Posted: 11/6/2012 9:31:11 AM
Is it just one of those games where there's nothing Vegas can do? I don't see how the Jags can score, but then again, Thursday night anything can happen. The objective of Thursday is to get through the game without too many injuries. After Luck throwing for 400+ on Sunday, I could see the Colts trying to fit in some sort of a running game while making the objective chewing up as much time as possible. I heard something about Pagano saying he's gonna meet with Luck this week to talk about the short week. Against one of the top 2 worst teams in the league, (jags/chiefs) then you'd think the main topic of that conservation could be clock management/time of possession. I'll go under hoping for a 24-7 game.

13-7 ytd
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#11
Posted: 11/6/2012 10:56:08 AM
How in hell is Indy just a 3 pt. favoritevs the worst team in the NFL.Dont over think this one.Indy -3 is the play.
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#12
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:19:26 AM
Gotta go with the Colts here, Jacksonville has been especially bad at home where they have been outscored 126-34.
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#13
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:31:55 AM
JAC +3 (.5u) - I'll take the Jags at home, altho the Colts may win SU, i'm betting a backdoor cover, something around COLTS 20 - Jaguars 18.  I'll pull the trigger closer to gametime, hoping for the hook. Time for the books to get on track with everyone and his mother's brother on the Colts...IMHO
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#14
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:38:58 AM
That Head Coach Pagano. Tear to my eye and insperation to my sole, THRU THE T.V. can't imagine how the players are going to react to the rest of the season. playoff time.  don't F!#k wit that.  makes people do things that are unexplainable, like playoffs. 
Really -3?
Go Chuck Pagano!!!
YOU CAN DO IT!
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#15
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:42:59 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ewillie169:

JAC +3 (.5u) - I'll take the Jags at home, altho the Colts may win SU, i'm betting a backdoor cover, something around COLTS 20 - Jaguars 18.  I'll pull the trigger closer to gametime, hoping for the hook. Time for the books to get on track with everyone and his mother's brother on the Colts...IMHO

There's no doubt everyone will be pounding the Colts. Too me,it's Indy or noting. Why would you wager on a game when you think the Jags will back door cover? Where's the value in praying the go on a last second pointless drive 
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#16
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:55:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by breakem:


There's no doubt everyone will be pounding the Colts. Too me,it's Indy or noting. Why would you wager on a game when you think the Jags will back door cover? Where's the value in praying the go on a last second pointless drive 


The Colt defense has not been impressive, which is why a backdoor cover shows value to me...but that's just me.  I still think it will be a close game with the Colts winning SU.
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#17
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:57:58 AM
Indianapolis Colts - 3
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#18
Posted: 11/6/2012 12:04:12 PM
I forgot to mention, i like Division home underdogs...something to do with 'familiarity breeds contempt"... ooops wrong quote, but you get the idea.
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#19
Posted: 11/6/2012 1:01:41 PM

It took an 80 yard TD catch to cecil shorts with 45 seconds left to eek out the only win of the season for the Jags. In that game they had MJD who ran for 177 yards on 28 carries and a TD. Gabbert was 10 of 21 for 155 yards. Since that game Jacksonville has gone 0-5 in their next 5 losing by an average of 16.8 points. The closest they came to winning in those 5 was a 3 point loss to Oakland in OT where Gabbert was 8 of 12 for 110 yards and Rashard Jennings ran 21 times for 44 yards before Henne came in in relief and threw for 70 yards. Oakland down two TD's rallied back and scored to send to OT and win. On the contrary Indy is 4-1 in their last 5 and on fire right now. Granted all of their wins are close ones (against GB by 3, Cleveland by 4, Tenn by 6, and Miami by 3). They don’t win by a ton but Luck is averaging 299 yards a game over the last 4 games and completing 59% of his passes. TD to INT ratio is not great but hes starting to click with his WR's. The coach pagano thing also has to be factored in a little bit. Yes it’s a short week, and they have to travel, but I don’t see any way that Indy loses this game. I think they cover the 3.5 spread (at my book) but I will buy it down to -3.

Can anyone tell me why I shouldn't go huge on this one?

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#20
Posted: 11/6/2012 1:43:50 PM
The Colts defense has not been impressive? Here's what they've done in the last 3 weeks since the debacle in Jersey against the Jets last month. 83 yards per game given up against the run and 15 points per game allowed. To go along with the 9th rated pass defense only allowing 222 yards per game. This unit is getting healthier, more comfortable and more confident every week. Gabbert is a turd and won't be able to do anything. No MJD. The Colts defense alone could win and cover this spread for them
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#21
Posted: 11/6/2012 3:14:17 PM
The Colts are playing their hearts out for their dying head coach. They might not win, but at least you know they are giving 100% effort. That could be an angle to look at with the remaining Colts games. I think the Colts take this one for their cancerous coach.
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#22
Posted: 11/6/2012 6:44:48 PM
i like the Over 42.5 in this one 
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#23
Posted: 11/6/2012 8:50:26 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by sfchamps10:

That Head Coach Pagano. Tear to my eye and insperation to my sole, THRU THE T.V. can't imagine how the players are going to react to the rest of the season. playoff time.  don't F!#k wit that.  makes people do things that are unexplainable, like playoffs. 
Really -3?
Go Chuck Pagano!!!
YOU CAN DO IT!

EXACTLY!  Throw in a quarterback named LUCK with  a HORSESHOE on his helmet!  COLTS

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#24
Posted: 11/6/2012 10:55:48 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by forkball:

EXACTLY!  Throw in a quarterback named LUCK with  a HORSESHOE on his helmet!  COLTS


LMAO!!
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#25
Posted: 11/6/2012 11:20:17 PM

best matchup to bet of week 10 in my opinion.  Luck is runnin hott, and jax might be the worst team in the NFL right now.  MJD is still out and jax just doesnt have any weapons at all. I dont see jax scoring more than 10 pts even against an average D in Indy.  Luck keeps the winning streak going in hopes to the make the playoffs, what a story that would be.  Only a 3 pt favorite seems easy to me.   Indy and the Under 27-10 Indy GL all

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