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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Philadelphia at New Orleans (11/05/2012)
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#26
Posted: 11/5/2012 4:07:58 AM
Philly = Dallas = don't chase...gl
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#27
Posted: 11/5/2012 4:29:58 AM
Looking at each teams recent point scoring, it looks like the Eagles will cover a few points and maybe win s/u.  They haven't been on the road for a while, and the Saints haven't been home for a while.  After factoring in each teams relative away/home performance, the numbers show a 1-8 point Saints victory.  The total looks a bit inflated, but I believe that's due to the media ripping on the poor defenses of both teams, mainly the Saints defense.  Both offenses have power, but haven't been lighting up the scoreboard like previous seasons.  The numbers I use show a total of 45-50 points being scored.  Here is one set of numbers I calculated by each quarter...

PHI 3,7,7,6 = 23
NO  7,7,6,7 = 27

Those are just numbers to use as a tool.  It does not indicate what I am playing or how the game will really go.  I think the Eagles have a good shot to win the game and I'd take them at +4.5.  I like the under52 for the game. 


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#28
Posted: 11/5/2012 5:14:41 AM
Philly +3.5

Tossed this on a parlay, last game I need to hit it. MNF, taking the dog. Philly has played tight games all year. 

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#29
Posted: 11/5/2012 6:17:32 AM
i'm waiting for mike vick to return to form since early ocotber and it didnt happen - don't see why he should explode in this one - the saints will score for sure - but the eagles? i dont know

sitting out on this one..
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#30
Posted: 11/5/2012 7:14:15 AM
I'm sorry but Vick and/or Reid are gonna his/their job/s.  There's no way that the Saints are going to feel sorry for the QB or his coach in risk of their own season and name.  At this point for both teams there's a lot hanging on the line.

The Saint's are now 2-5 but probably the only team with this record that has the talent to possibly still make the playoffs even with their horrendous defense. It's clear that the Saints' motto is to just outscore everyone if our defense can't stop no one.  

This isn't a league about feeling sorry for other players losing their jobs, it's about doing your best and keeping yours.  Of course there's always that mutual respect but when it comes down to it, every man has to earn their paycheck and if they don't then they should be looking for a different job.  

One game isn't going to save Vick from being cut this year.  It's too bad that he screwed himself with the bad publicity of being a dog killer so that liens heavily against his favor.  When push comes to shove, Vick will be the first to go if not both him and his coach.  

For the remainder of the Philly season, they'll be lucky if they win 2 more games if Vick is still in the lineup.  This organization wants a change and wants a change to happen now.  It's probably a 99% chance that the owner will say enough is enough and Vick will become a bench warmer on some other team if anyone is willing to pick him up after this.  He even admitted it himself, "I can read dogs better than I can read defenses" in his interview. 

Yes Vick will fight for his career in this game, but it's probably one game too late especially with all this publicity all about it in the recent weeks.  This will be the hardest game he probably ever faced in his life and the Saints, even with the near league worst defense is going to give Vick all he can handle.  It will be an extremely hostile environment when he heads to New Orleans.  These people love their team and will blow the roof off the place.  Do you know how difficult it is to change or call plays if the fans are so loud that you can barely hear yourself let alone your team?

They're facing Brees and the number 5 ranked offense with a number 1 passing offense.  Yeah Philly has an average defense but Brees isn't going to roll over and hand the game to them.  Philly can move the ball some but just can't score when it comes to the red zone, but the Saints sure can score a pretty good amount of points.  Looking at both QBs I'd take Drew Brees anyday, everyday over Vick.  

Yes it's true that Brees and company was stopped dead in their offensive tracks but Philly ain't no Denver Broncos.  I'm pretty sure the game would've gone differently if Denver had to visit the Saints' home.  


This is a season/career ending game for both teams:
.
Saints - If the Saints lose, NO postseason and their season is shot to hell.  No chance in hell because they would've dropped too many games.

Eagles - If the Eagles lose, Vick will almost undoubtedly be gone and sitting the bench until they trade him off for a draft pick.

Since the Saints have no defense up to this point, they will give the Eagles a slight glimmer of hope, and then they'll face the reality of Drew Brees and his pass happy team.  Brees is a future hall of famer while Vick will be a future hall of shamer.  Yes Vick will score but does anyone honestly believe that he will outscore Brees? 

Whether I'm right or wrong on my pick with the Saints, I honestly feel that Brees wants this more and has a brighter future in the NFL rather than Vick.  Vick is down a long dark tunnel and there's no light to that end my friend. 

Remember, the spreads are made for the betters and ultimately it doesn't matter to the players who are actually playing this game.  I can bet you that both Brees and Vick doesn't give a rat's behind about how many points who is giving who.  They both want to win and for really good and serious reasons.  

Saint's all the way!  I'd rather see Brees in the post season with a high flying shootout than Vick the turnover machine. 

 
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#31
Posted: 11/5/2012 10:35:10 AM

go under  !

Vick is the biggest piece of garbage to walk the earth , he should be locked up in prison still with the LT character from IN HELL  !!!

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#32
Posted: 11/5/2012 10:40:18 AM
both teams suck this year my only play is the ove r
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#33
Posted: 11/5/2012 10:40:44 AM
sproles.....????? big part of that offense!!!
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#34
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:16:17 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by wangichu:

The eagles are like the lakers of the NFL.  you take them when they are catching value and there is finally no good reason to believe they haven't mailed it in.

that said, i like the players only meeting thing (vick called).  i like the idea of vick getting back to being agressive against the worst defense in the league.  and i like that this is todd bowles second game as d-cord, still believe in him as he is a bright mind and used to QB the defense from the field as a DB.

philly is 7-2 ATS last 9 vs the saints and while i'm sure sammy would get on me for taking that back so far, i have a lot of success riding those ATS trends (see dallas vs carolina, titans vs bills, jags vs raiders, skins vs. saints to name a few).  Philly is another team that is probably a lot better than their record indicates and while both teams are off beatdowns, the eagles are the only team between these two that has a good enough team/situation to actually contend for a playoff spot this year.  I also hate that the saints have another new coach in his second week after spending the first 5 weeks getting used to a different new coach.  That's too much variance to get behind. 

Sproles being out for the saints is also huge as he is too valuable in short yardage, goalline situations and their best weapon in terms of versatility and reliability and his absence will make the short and intermediate yardage plays a lot harder to succeed on.  Philly also has a very decent secondary which should match well against a team that passes to set up the pass and occassionally, when they're not passing, they pass.

While philly probably does the same thing, they have one of the best backs in the game and against a piss poor run D, they will likely be smart enough to run mccoy like hell to shorten the game and keep pressure off vick.

Before last weekend's games, vegas actually had this line at Philly +1.5 (i know because in a drunken moment of not so clarity last sunday, i bet it, forcing myself to find a creative hedge when i pounded the 3.5 that came out later).

anyways, having untangled myself and barring an awful loss, provided myself with a small window for a double win, the bottom line here is that I pounded this one and figured the rest out later...

PHILLY +3.5 large

and i would highly recommend trading for eagles in your fantasy leagues.  their stock is very low right now and this is a prime breakout game situation here.


Nice analysis and nice call on Carolina.  I got hurt taking the Skins & Bengals, but Detroit, GB, and Atlanta got me up 1 unit on the week (I stink of mediocrity lately).  Wish I took the Steelers, but I cant bet against my team. 

I def agree with you on this one.  Its tough to fade Nola at home on Monday night.  But they have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, and their defense is giving up 475 yards a game (the worst in the NFL).  Call me old fashioned, but that's not a combination for success (just look how Denver beat them down last week).  Yes, the Saints passing game is incredible, but thats also a product of New Orleans not being able to run the ball. I think this Eagles secondary is above average, but have just been underachieving.  I think with the pressure on them tonight, I  Asomugha and Rogers-Cromartie will bend, but not break.      

I'm sure none of these teams thought they would be in this position at the start of the year, but this is obviously a "must-win" for both teams.  A loss by either team means your pretty much out of the playoff picture.  The Saints have absolutely no shot of winning the division with Atlanta being 8-0, but mathmatically, they still have a shot at the wild card.  I know this shouldn't matter, but the fact that the Giants, Cowboys, and Redskins all lost will definitely provide added incentive for the Eagles to win, as they will gain a game on everyone in their division and fall only 1.5 games back of the Giants (a team that they beat earlier in the year).  

As much as I despise the Eagles, they will actually be in pretty good shape if they could leave the Superdome with a W.  I am encouraged that Vick didn't turn the ball over last week, and I think he's probably due for a big game. 

Good luck  

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#35
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:17:40 AM
Over rated Team : Eagles 

Over rated QB : Vick.

Coach : Andy Reid  ( his son just passed away) 

aka = SUCK

what else ????

vs. Saints  : ( No coaching at all this season )  = no D .

aka = SUCK

( saints -3 : cz of the home field advantage ).

haha .... Im gonna stay away from this game .

IF I have to bet .... yeah love to GAMBLE ... damn it ... Im gonna go with OVER  .

OVER (  All hell lets loose tonite MNF , baby ,,,,, YEAH ..... ) 


PREDICT :   31-28 or 28-31 .... 


GLTA

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#36
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:25:14 AM
Philly at least plays SOME D, whereas New Orleans plays none.

Vick has been playing better of late and I think him and Mccoy put up some good numbers on that porous Saints D. No Sproles is a big hit to New Orleans. They should be able to move the ball still (they always do in the dome) but I think they'll miss having him for some key 3rd down conversions (and special teams as well).

Eagles +3 and Over 52. 
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#37
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:38:32 AM
Philly been overvalued all season except for pit game. This team just does not have it together i.e. cowidiots. Tough going with a bad team. Saints not much better but line is right. Take lesser of two losers   Saints and OV for the medium. Will you please stop the falcons from taking all my chances at millions!!! Theyre killin me going against em
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#38
Posted: 11/5/2012 11:45:07 AM
OVER small for shits and giggles.  A perfect weekend not anxous to give a nickel back!
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#39
Posted: 11/5/2012 12:21:39 PM
Don't try to over-analyze this game, Saints will win. Bottom line. 
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#40
Posted: 11/5/2012 12:40:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by reezyj93:

Don't try to over-analyze this game, Saints will win. Bottom line. 


Reezyj93,

 

 

Are you as confident about the Saints as you were about Louisiana Monroe this weekend?  Please adviseā€¦ 


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#41
Posted: 11/5/2012 12:52:38 PM
I like the over in this one
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#42
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:28:08 PM

I'm glad everyone is on the over.. makes me LOVE the under.. both of these teams are not capible of putting up that many points.. no sproles, and too much contrivercy all over the place.. look for the defences to play better as the season moves forward eagles 24 saints 21

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#43
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:42:17 PM
We should call this game the degenerate special. Both teams have a lot on the line, but are both very unpredictable. The key to value and profitability is to be able to have some realistic expectation of a game. How the hell can anyone pick a side / total on this game beyond speculation? If anything I'd be looking at Dog / Under just because it's monday night... I think I like Robc889s prediction above: 24-21 Eagles.
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#44
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:48:11 PM

NOrl  24

Phi    17

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#45
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:54:16 PM
philly ml + over 51
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#46
Posted: 11/5/2012 1:59:56 PM
I promise myself not bet on neither of teams again lol... But Eagles +3 and under 52
Posted using a mobile device.
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#47
Posted: 11/5/2012 2:02:47 PM
Over 52 !    
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#48
Posted: 11/5/2012 2:10:39 PM

Eagles/Saints Over 52

Eagles and over 5 pt teaser.

Eagles first quarter

Over first quarter

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#49
Posted: 11/5/2012 2:18:33 PM
skimming all these posts....i see no mention of philly's offensive line?  Aren't the eagles getting him back tonight?  I think that will be huge for vick and mccoy.  Funny how everyone blames vick...i guess the qb/head coach take the heat when they lose, get credit when they win. Im not an eagles or saints fan....but if the eagles are getting the left tackle back, that could be huge?  Also, i think thomas and ingram will fill in and sproles being out won't be as important as some of you think it will be.  Brees is Brees...he will just work in some other players...it's the system.  As far as vick being a "POS" as some people call him.  I don't condone what he did, but what about the players in this league that have killed HUMAN BEINGS.  Ask leonard little or donte stallworth....vick killed dogs...these guys killed PEOPLE.  Did leonard little even serve a day in jail when he ran a red light at midnight in down town st louis, driving drunk, killing a 42 year old woman, a wife, a mother of two? 
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#50
Posted: 11/5/2012 2:30:05 PM
Love the UNDER !!!!
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