Messages

Forum Index : Pro Football : Messages Page 2 of 2  1 2  
Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Carolina at Washington (11/04/2012)
wangichu send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
wangichu
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1035
Location: California
#26
Posted: 11/3/2012 5:35:04 PM
QUOTEYou're being respectful so I don't want to be a jerk about it, but I find you logic in response to mine to be chalk full of holes.  For the sake of discussion, here's my responses:

Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace:


Great commentary wangichu, but I respectfully disagree with you. In fact, you just made me like the skins a little more.  

First, the Panthers did NOT look like "they got it together" last week.


I FULLY maintain my comment.  That was probably the panther's best game of the year;  just because they couldn't hold on against a superbowl contending squad does not mean they didn't play extremely well compared to their earlier performance;  I'm assuming I don't need to tell you that the bears defense is elite.  (1st against pass and 4th against run per Football Outsiders).  Cam and steve smith put up their best games of the year yardage wise, cam's 1st over 300 yards since week 1, smiths 1st over 100 since week 2.  They also got 119 yards on the ground, for 433 yards total offense.  I'm not looking it up, but i guarantee you, not many teams have moved the ball that well against the bears this year.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace]
Second, the Bears practically handed them this game, turning the ball over 3 times (a pick and 2 fumbles).  Good teams capitalize on turnovers.  The Panthers went 1-4 in the red zone!! 


Bears "handing them the game" is synonomous with the panthers creating a solid 3 turnovers, pretty good defensive effort.  and sure the panthers didn't do great in the red zone, Again, this is the best defense in football, they held aaron rodgers to 16 (pack only got 23 because of a fake FG turned TD).  You are absolutely kidding yourself if you think the skins defense is capable of replicating a fraction of that success.  They got 314 through the air against the number 1 pass defense, I don't think it's unfair to think they can at least replicate that against the 20th best pass D.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace]
Third, the way the Panthers lost that game was extremely deflating. I actually think that negative momentum will carry over into this week.  Sort of the same way the Jets lost a close one at New England as a big dog, and then got absolutely rocked at home by Miami last week.


Jets getting rocked was because they are not a good team, they just played way over their head against the pats, the fins were off a bye and much better, and the jets fell victim to the whole teams going into a bye week situation.  completely incomparable situations, especially considering those were both divisional games and this is not.

Any "negative momentum" has been factored into the spread by vegas.  They know that people would rather bet the upstart skins than the struggling panthers.  They wouldn't be offering discounts on fading the panthers at this point.  line moved from 4 to 3 with public money clearly on black jesus and crew.

[Quote: Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace]
And my final point is I didn't realize the Skins were going into the bye week.  That makes me even more confident that they will fear the wrath of Mike Shanahan if they lose 3 straight going into the bye.  I love taking teams with respected/disciplinarian coaches going into the bye week and after the bye week.   Prime examples of those types of coaches include Schiano, Bellichik, and Jim Harbaugh.  The Patriots just destroyed the Rams going into their bye & 49ers played freaking awesome against Zona going into their bye.  I think the Shanahans are a solid, no-nonsense coaching staff and definitely fall into that category.


Come on man.  I like shanahan as a coach, but skins aren't anywhere close to being as good as the 49ers or pats and those two teams are two of few that buck the stat I alluded to.  I'll look it up for you in a minute, but trust me, teams pre bye week have been awful on the whole.
[Quote: Originally Posted by Sammy_Ace]
Look for Shanahan to avenge last years loss to the Panthers with his new and revamped offense led RGIII and Alfred Morris.  The leagues number 2 rush offense versus the 20th rush defense in the league....And they're only laying 3??  Take it now before the line moves.  
SKINS!!!           
 


Panthers are a desparate, hungry team.  they want VERY badly to win and will have just as much effort as any.  I'm well aware of morris and their rush D, but this is just one of few advantages the skins have.  and the line already did move, it opened at 4 and went down to 3 to try to rope in more skins money.

The bears have allowed 100 points this year in 7 games (best in NFL).  22% of that came to the panthers last week.  Skins have allowed 227 in 8 games.  That's an average of 28 per game.  If carolina is just average, the skins will have to score 31 to win.  That's a hell of a lot to demand of your offense on a weekly basis.

Good luck on all your other plays, i respect you for writing up your thoughts and respecfully sharing them, but I really think you're looking at this game from some bad angles.  Then again, as great as I've done this year, as it goes with any successful handicapper, there's a 57% chance I'm right.
quote
wangichu send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
wangichu
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1035
Location: California
#27
Posted: 11/3/2012 6:00:44 PM
well, that formatting attempt sure didn't work.  Hope it's not too much of a pain to pick through.

anyways...

Teams going into their byes. ...

week3
Indy SU/ATS loss 17-22 to jags
Pitt SU/ATS loss 31-34 to raiders

week4
Dallas SU/ATS loss 18-34 to bears
Oakland SU/ATS loss 7-36 to denver
Detroit SU/ATS loss 13-20 to vikes
Bucs SU/ATS loss 22-24

week5
panthers SU/ATS loss 12-16 to seattle
jags SU/ATS loss 3-41 to bears
bears SU/ATS WIN to 41-3 (someone had to win)
Saints SU/ATS WIN 31-24 (one bad PI call away from losing, but the most logical exception to the rule given how desparte they were going into this one)

week6
Falcons ATS LOSS 23-20 against raiders
Chargers SU/ATS loss 24-35 to broncos
Broncos SU/ATS Win 35-24 over chargers (someone had to win)
Eagles SU/ATS loss 27-24 to lions
Miami ATS LOSS 17-14 against rams
Chiefs SU/ATS loss 10-38 to bucs

week7
cincinatti SU/ATS loss 17-24 to steelers
buffalo SU/ATS loss 34-35 to titans
Ravens SU/ATS loss 13-43 to houston
Houston SU/ATS win 43-13 vs ravens (someone had to win)

week8
jets SU/ATS loss 9-30 to fins
49ers SU/ATS win 24-3 (only the second PURE win in these spots)
Rams SU/ATS loss 7-45 to pats
pats SU/ATS WIN 45-7 to rams (someone had to win)

so a grand total of 6-18...

Teams in their last game before a bye are 6-18 ATS this year.

BUT to be fair, the games where two teams going into byes are facing off should be wiped off because they are unique (i'll eliminate both sides)

SO in summation...

TEAMS PLAYING THEIR LAST GAME BEFORE A BYE AGAINST A TEAM NOT GOING INTO A BYE ARE 2-14 ATS. 

2-14 ATS is a pretty bad trend to be betting into, even if the skins were anywhere near as good as the bears, pats, 9ers, broncos, texans, or anywhere near as desparate as the then winless saints.
quote
wangichu send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
wangichu
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1035
Location: California
#28
Posted: 11/3/2012 6:01:55 PM
in case people prefer not to read my whole posts, here's the quick read version:

TEAMS PLAYING THEIR LAST GAME BEFORE A BYE AGAINST A TEAM NOT GOING INTO A BYE ARE 2-14 ATS
quote
bkg1010
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
bkg1010
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 5818
Location: Louisiana
#29
Posted: 11/3/2012 10:47:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:

Cam is the Obama of the NFL if you will Bill Clinton even 

Not sure what that means?  Obama talks a lot but gets nothing done, Cams cries a lot and is not doing a whole lot! 


quote
Matt2500
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: 5Dimes |
Matt2500
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2012
Posts: 103
Location: Pennsylvania
#30
Posted: 11/4/2012 12:10:07 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bkg1010:


Not sure what that means?  Obama talks a lot but gets nothing done, Cams cries a lot and is not doing a whole lot! 


Well Said bkg1010!!!

lol I could go off on a long rant, but I'm trying really, really hard not to make political comments on here before the election.

But... if you're an American, you will vote for Romney!

(Ok, I had too...)

 

quote
Ocean808 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ocean808
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 557
Location: Hawaii
#31
Posted: 11/4/2012 1:32:04 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by dustyvaultz:

Cam is the Obama of the NFL if you will Bill Clinton even 

Are you saying if Cam loses on Sunday, Obama loses on Tuesday?

Bill Clinton?? Don't get me started.

quote
wangichu send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
wangichu
Participation Meter
Veteran
Joined: Nov 2007
Posts: 1035
Location: California
#32
Posted: 11/4/2012 1:39:12 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by bkg1010:


Not sure what that means?  Obama talks a lot but gets nothing done, Cams cries a lot and is not doing a whole lot! 




true... it frusterates me how much america is so enthralled by someone's personality and so delusional of their lack of political capability.  Pains me to say, but i think we're in for another 4 years of seeing obama's NCAA brackets, watching him show up to nationals and white sox games while we imagine what could be if we had a president working while he's out f--king around.  or if we had someone helping the nation instead of dropping in for a few moments to sabatoge our economy before the next white sox game.
quote
VEGASRKNZ send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Station |
VEGASRKNZ
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 86
Location: Nevada
#33
Posted: 11/4/2012 1:57:13 AM
Panthers +3.5
quote
Ocean808 send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook |
Ocean808
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 557
Location: Hawaii
#34
Posted: 11/4/2012 2:18:11 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by wangichu:



true... it frusterates me how much america is so enthralled by someone's personality and so delusional of their lack of political capability.  Pains me to say, but i think we're in for another 4 years of seeing obama's NCAA brackets, watching him show up to nationals and white sox games while we imagine what could be if we had a president working while he's out f--king around.  or if we had someone helping the nation instead of dropping in for a few moments to sabatoge our economy before the next white sox game.

Bravo! I couldn't have said it better.

quote
jorge112270
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Mirage |
jorge112270
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Aug 2007
Posts: 8710
Location: Texas
#35
Posted: 11/4/2012 8:38:23 AM
Washington 
quote
luckyman7 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
luckyman7
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 569
Location: North Carolina
#36
Posted: 11/4/2012 9:06:13 AM

wangchu presented a good pt.  nearly all the team which lost before there bye were u/.500, so are the skins.  I liked wasington and the ov.

however, another pt, wangchu shaired was carolina was 1-4 in the red z. 

so now, i think i'll pass.  damn it.

quote
abadboycali send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Wynn Las Vegas |
abadboycali
Participation Meter
Banned
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 9375
Location: California
#37
Posted: 11/4/2012 10:05:04 AM
wash + OVER : LARGE

Skins 31-24

GLTA

quote
forkball
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
forkball
Participation Meter
Rookie
Joined: Dec 2009
Posts: 557
Location: Cayman Islands
#38
Posted: 11/4/2012 10:53:52 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Matt2500:

Well Said bkg1010!!!

lol I could go off on a long rant, but I'm trying really, really hard not to make political comments on here before the election.

But... if you're an American, you will vote for Romney!

(Ok, I had too...)

 

 

"KOCH BROTHERS REVEALED"  Watch the documentary and learn who "THE REAL REPUBLICANS ARE".  Real Americans. . .sheeesh!

quote
CanadaCup
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CanadaCup
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 8413
Location: Canada
#39
Posted: 11/4/2012 11:48:48 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by wangichu:



true... it frusterates me how much america is so enthralled by someone's personality and so delusional of their lack of political capability.  Pains me to say, but i think we're in for another 4 years of seeing obama's NCAA brackets, watching him show up to nationals and white sox games while we imagine what could be if we had a president working while he's out f--king around.  or if we had someone helping the nation instead of dropping in for a few moments to sabatoge our economy before the next white sox game.

Hope you're wrong brother, he's been an economic disaster for America and a very poor trading partner of Canada"s in the past four years.

quote
CanadaCup
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
CanadaCup
Participation Meter
Captain
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 8413
Location: Canada
#40
Posted: 11/4/2012 11:57:55 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by wangichu:

in case people prefer not to read my whole posts, here's the quick read version:

TEAMS PLAYING THEIR LAST GAME BEFORE A BYE AGAINST A TEAM NOT GOING INTO A BYE ARE 2-14 ATS

Panthers +3.5

quote
mtgmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
mtgmoney
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 340
Location: District of
              Columbia
#41
Posted: 11/4/2012 12:43:05 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by wangichu]

true... it frusterates me how much america is so enthralled by someone's personality and so delusional of their lack of political capability.  Pains me to say, but i think we're in for another 4 years of seeing obama's NCAA brackets, watching him show up to nationals and white sox games while we imagine what could be if we had a president working while he's out f--king around.  or if we had someone helping the nation instead of dropping in for a few moments to sabatoge our economy before the next white sox game.
[wow Wangichu, I was feeling your SPORTS right up- liked the work on the bye-week ATS...but when YOU jumped into the political forum with the other "low information, low hanging fruit personality" you lost me...think from where the USA WAS...WHO got us there and the return to the same ideas we are working our way out of...."come on man" you seem to be of a higher education then the others that spew hate-and I respect your choice, but REALLY..all you think Obama did was take vacations???? google G Dub..see how much your dude was away from the helm while the real president (chaney) ripped our country off...I always felt sorry for G Dub, he`s really a good guy- dumb as hell, but means well-]
quote
mtgmoney send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Sports Interaction |
mtgmoney
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 340
Location: District of
              Columbia
#42
Posted: 11/4/2012 12:44:09 PM
WOOOOOW Wangichu, I was feeling your SPORTS right up- liked the work on the bye-week ATS...but when YOU jumped into the political forum with the other "low information, low hanging fruit personality" you lost me...think from where the USA WAS...WHO got us there and the return to the same ideas we are working our way out of...."come on man" you seem to be of a higher education then the others that spew hate-and I respect your choice, but REALLY..all you think Obama did was take vacations???? google G Dub..see how much your dude was away from the helm while the real president (chaney) ripped our country off...I always felt sorry for G Dub, he`s really a good guy- dumb as hell, but means well
quote
WiseGuy702
RSI Wagerline RSI Rating
send a private message View Space | Blog | Friends | Playbook | My Sportsbook: Westgate Las Vegas Superbook |
WiseGuy702
Participation Meter
All-Star
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 11826
Location: Nevada
#43
Posted: 11/4/2012 12:47:14 PM
Panthers +3.5

 Good luck 
quote
NoFrigginWay send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
NoFrigginWay
Participation Meter
Prospect
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 258
Location:
#44
Posted: 11/4/2012 6:45:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

    Cam crying over spilled milk again. In the meantime, RGIII is actually playing decent football. Asking the Skins to cover a measely 3.5  at FedEx Field against a miserable team, is really no great deal. Ron Rivera needs to right a sinking ship, because Newton is starting to loose the respect of his teamates.

WASHINGTON  -  3.5


OMG !!!! SPILLED MILK ??? NEWTON LOSING RESPECT ??? LMFAO !!!! YOURE LOSING IT VUE !!!!!!!

 

quote
Forum Index : Pro Football : Messages Page 2 of 2  1 2  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.