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Author: [Pro Football] Topic: Jacksonville at Green Bay (10/28/2012)
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#1
Posted: 10/23/2012 12:27:44 AM

Away:  Jacksonville [3-3 ATS]
Home:  Green Bay [3-4 ATS]

Game Time: 1:00 PM
Stadium: Lambeau Field

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Jacksonville:
Passing: Blaine Gabbert (906)
Rushing: Maurice Jones-Drew (414)
Receiving: Cecil Shorts (284)

Green Bay:
Passing: Aaron Rodgers (1979)
Rushing: Cedric Benson (248)
Receiving: Jordy Nelson (532)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 10/23/2012 3:46:08 AM
G. Bay!!!!!!
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#3
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:52:54 AM
Assuming Chad Henne starts...and MoJo already out....

Jax ended up 6 point dogs @ Oakland...now travelling to Green Bay.

Shouldn't the line be about 13.5-14.5?

Green Bay 31
Jacksonville 13

Gimme Green Bay covering spread

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#4
Posted: 10/23/2012 1:57:01 PM
i would immediately play every GB line under -14 ! i hope it opens around -13, but i think it could be even higher...
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#5
Posted: 10/23/2012 6:06:00 PM
Jacksonville Money Line...lol
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#6
Posted: 10/23/2012 11:05:13 PM
At Lambo, This should be a blowout. 

Greenbay up to minus 14  maybe more.


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#7
Posted: 10/24/2012 2:15:26 PM

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes un-bettable.Even as Packer fan,I have limits to what I'll lay in points until I see a killer instinct show up in games with the Packers.

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#8
Posted: 10/24/2012 3:46:55 PM

Last week Jacksonville had to travel all the way to the black hole in Oakland, and lose a really close one to the Raiders.  The Jags had a whole week to prepare for the game and showed a lot of heart by giving the Raiders a run for their money.  Unfortunately, when the leader of your team, MJD, gets injured that early in a game, it can be very deflating to say the least.  Not to me mention, losing your starting quarterback kinda sucks too.  I think they showed a lot of heart in that game, and I will remember that next time they are getting a lot of points at home. 

This will not be the spot for them to cover.  Things won't be any easier when they have to fly to Milwaukee and play the well oiled machine of the Green Bay Packers.  The Jags are racking up some serious frequent flyer miles these days (previous game played all the way in Oakland).  I think this matchup bodes horribly for them even with Charles Woodson out with a broken collar bone.  The Jags simply don't have the weapons to exploit the injury (Chad Henne to who???).  Nor do they have the pass rush or secondary to slow down this elite passing attack.  Look for Clay Matthews to have a field day on this team anytime they try to throw the ball.   

I normally would look for this to be a letdown situation for Green Bay, but again, with them being at 3rd place in the NFC North standings, they can ill afford a letdown.  I know a lot of wise guys got hurt trying to fade GB last week, and as I mentioned, this team is just playing too damn well!!!   They were 15-1 last year and 11-5 ATS.  Don't let the public scare you away from riding this team.  I think their defense is actually playing better than they did last year, although the loss of Charles Woodson will hurt when they have to play a team like the Gmen or Falcons.  Fortunately, they will not be exposed by the Jacksoville Jaguars. 

They will be 6-3 going into the bye (I have been saying that for the past two weeks). 

They will step on the gas and put this team out of its misery early.  I wouldn't be surprised if you see Graham Harrell (GB's backup QB) taking snaps in the 4th quarter because this one will be decided at halftime.

Pack 38

Jags 13

        

 

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#9
Posted: 10/24/2012 6:00:48 PM
-16....Not bad....Thought it would be -19 or -20..Anyway, great input as usual Sammy.  I will not over think this game..Big Time Blowout. Packers are clickin again.Everybody go rob your Bookie.  G.B 41 JAX 16
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#10
Posted: 10/24/2012 7:28:12 PM
I figured the line would open at -15.5
Maybe I should be a line maker?

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#11
Posted: 10/24/2012 9:21:09 PM

Last year when Green Bay was a favorite of 10 or more at home they were 5-1. They beat Chicago 35-21 (W-13), Oakland 46-16 (W-11.5), Tampa Bay 35-26 (L-14), Minnesota 45-7 (W-13), St Louis 24-3 (W-14), Denver 49-23 (W-12).

 

OK, that is way too much research and information concerning this game. The Packers win this one HUGE and easily cover. The Jaguars just don't have in them... Jones Drew is hurt, Gabbert is out. I'd give the Jags a ton of credit if they manage to score 10.

 

Packers -16... The Gimme of the week!

 

Leaving the Over Under alone in this one. The Packers might be up 35-0 by the third quarter and put in the second teamers. And I don't see the Jaguars putting many points on the board.

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#12
Posted: 10/24/2012 9:40:12 PM

   I like the Jags, because everyone here says they have no chance.  OK- first my score: GB 26-Jax -21. Yes, the loss of Jones-Drew and their starting QB will be difficult to overcome.Just when things couldn't get any worse for Jax, they did! I feel GB will fall way short of covering the 16 points they are giving.

JACKSONVILLE   + 16

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#13
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:41:07 AM
How is Jacksonville going to score?  I might leave the spread alone and find a Jaguars team total under (probably around 14.5).  Green Bay kept Chicago and Seattle below that line, so why not Jacksonville?
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#14
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:54:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

   I like the Jags, because everyone here says they have no chance.  OK- first my score: GB 26-Jax -21. Yes, the loss of Jones-Drew and their starting QB will be difficult to overcome.Just when things couldn't get any worse for Jax, they did! I feel GB will fall way short of covering the 16 points they are giving.

JACKSONVILLE   + 16


Please Vue explain how Jax reaches 21 points?
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#15
Posted: 10/25/2012 9:34:58 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

   I like the Jags, because everyone here says they have no chance.  OK- first my score: GB 26-Jax -21. Yes, the loss of Jones-Drew and their starting QB will be difficult to overcome.Just when things couldn't get any worse for Jax, they did! I feel GB will fall way short of covering the 16 points they are giving.

JACKSONVILLE   + 16


You must work for the books cuz you spend so much time putting up your "info"...now you're trying to scare people away from teasing GB? Or is that how you based your pick...meaning you think they will rig it for Jacksonville? You did not even explain why you picked Jax, rather kind of contradicted by saying nothing is going right for them.
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#16
Posted: 10/25/2012 10:23:04 AM
My bad, GB is -4.5 on the teaser, so that would mean you're trying to get them to bet it cuz you think it will cover by half point?

lmao...I always wonder why people waste time here giving away "Free" picks and plays...which never add up to anything since it comes down to a coin flip unless you actually pick on the next level, as some certainly do...
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#17
Posted: 10/25/2012 10:39:09 AM

For LitlBil, Sammy, and Vue - how do you see Jax scoring 13 let alone 21??!?!?! O.K. - maybe a lucky fluke tipped ball Pick 6, or a sideline toe tapping punt return. Yeah, Packers "D" isn't the best, but look at what they're facing - does anybody even know who the back RB is??

With MJD and Gabbert out, this team has about as much chance of covering 16 as a Division AAA college team would

Sorry, but my "Database" has this game at 34-3 or 34-7

See you in L.A. in 2018, Jaguars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

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#18
Posted: 10/25/2012 11:37:23 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

   I like the Jags, because everyone here says they have no chance.  OK- first my score: GB 26-Jax -21. Yes, the loss of Jones-Drew and their starting QB will be difficult to overcome.Just when things couldn't get any worse for Jax, they did! I feel GB will fall way short of covering the 16 points they are giving.

JACKSONVILLE   + 16

I would like to thank Vue for being a contrarian and providing us with a different viewpoint.  I enjoy hearing opposing arguments in all the blogs on covers because regardless of who we are, we are always going to make mistakes.  Its impossible to be right all the time.    

Although, I am not really sure why Vue posts his or her picks without any real logical explanation behind them.  I think everyone would benefit if Vue provided us with some tangible reasons as to the rationale for liking a certain side or total.  From a handicapping perspective, I have a problem with your explanation of:

 "I like the Jags, because everyone here says they have no chance." 

That provides us with no intell or angles, nor does it suggest that we are overlooking some reason as to why the Jags wil cover.  Are you just looking into some database?   Whats your thought process here Vue?     

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#19
Posted: 10/25/2012 11:46:25 AM
OVER play
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#20
Posted: 10/25/2012 1:41:45 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

   I like the Jags, because everyone here says they have no chance.  OK- first my score: GB 26-Jax -21. Yes, the loss of Jones-Drew and their starting QB will be difficult to overcome.Just when things couldn't get any worse for Jax, they did! I feel GB will fall way short of covering the 16 points they are giving.

JACKSONVILLE   + 16


I understand what vue is saying.  Vegas rarely gets crushed, and when everyone is going one way typically the play is the other side. See Texans at Jets on MNF a few weeks back.  Everyone was on Texans, line moved from -7.5 to -10.5 the day of.  Jets covered the number.  Games arent always played how they seem on paper and that's why dogs cover the number so many times.
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#21
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:44:38 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by TheQuadYeah:

For LitlBil, Sammy, and Vue - how do you see Jax scoring 13 let alone 21??!?!?! O.K. - maybe a lucky fluke tipped ball Pick 6, or a sideline toe tapping punt return. Yeah, Packers "D" isn't the best, but look at what they're facing - does anybody even know who the back RB is??

With MJD and Gabbert out, this team has about as much chance of covering 16 as a Division AAA college team would

Sorry, but my "Database" has this game at 34-3 or 34-7

See you in L.A. in 2018, Jaguars!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 


I have to double down against JAx this week, Snarky database comment made me snicker.  I am thinking even if GB pulls players in the fourth quarter that the guys left on the field will still be able to neutralize Jax.

I think your 'database' is absolutely correct this week. 
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#22
Posted: 10/25/2012 2:48:16 PM
This should be like one of those college ball spreads.

Chatanooga vs. BYU something like that.

-34 

44-10  Greenbay
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#23
Posted: 10/25/2012 8:14:59 PM

Green Bay - 33                        Jacksonville - 13

Packers -16                

Jax coming off su loss and getting more than 7 on the road indicates to me that they will mail this one in. Pack goes vanilla and wins this one by 20.

Green Bay -             

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#24
Posted: 10/26/2012 12:40:39 AM
pack -16 is this the highest line off the year 
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#25
Posted: 10/26/2012 11:01:55 AM

All of you looking to go GB and give the high points..Nelson likely to be OUT which should get those points to drop significantly...might want to hold your money for the lower or just stay away.....beware and I'm a fanatic for the Packers.

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