|My data sample begins from 2008, the year Matt Ryan, Mike Smith, GM Thomas Dimitroff have re-established the identity of the Atlanta Falcon Franchise. Two games that I omit from this sample are the two back to back home games in the 2009 season that Matt Ryan was injured and was not starting.
Posted: 9/27/2012 3:03:13 PM
Key stats since 2008:
Matt Ryan is 46 - 19 SU all time
Atlanta Falcons are 27 - 4 SU at home
Atlanta Falcons are 6 - 2 SU against the Panthers, 4 - 0 SU at home and 4 - 0 in its last four matchups
ATL has averaged 28.15pts against the CAR, scoring 31pts in it's last 4
It is worth noting that Mike Smith is a huge time of possession guy. His Falcons almost always score early, get a early lead, then maintain possession of the ball with 9-12+ play drives keeping the ball inbounds and the clock running. This forces opposing teams to get risky when behind and ATL D capitalizes off of turnovers as a result.
With Cam and Stewart/Williams running as well to keep possession away from the Falcons, this has a huge under potential. Add that Cam has had extra time to be less risky, the only way this game goes over is if CAR scores first/early to keep ATL running full tilt. If ATL has an early lead, lean on ingame betting to the under.
Falcons first half
Falcons score over 27
-7 is too much to a division matchup, no matter where it's played, especially to an opponent with extra time