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The three games that NO lost are against the teams that can stop the run:

                        NO                 GB                    Result

Rush/yds         81                  103              lost 34-41

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                         NO                  TB

Rush/yds         70                   117             lost 20-26

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                         NO                    SL

Rush/yds         56                     140           lost 21-31

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and the games that they almost lost...

                         NO                     AT

Rush/yds          41                      138          won in OT 26-23

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As you can see that NO will have problem playing against SF who allowed only ave. 79 yds./gm rushing 'cause then they become one dimension team (passing).

SF beat both teams that beat NO, beat TB 48-3, beat SL twice 20-6 and 34-27.

Saints will have to bow up on defense to win this game on the road!  With healthy running backs and Brees hitting on all cylinders, I think the Saints, if the defense bows up, will cover!

 - - that's it right there.........

to sum up - Niners can run and stop the run. Detriot could do neither. And, due to the short week and cross country trip, you'll see the Saints sucking some hard wind by the third quarter. Plus it's outside and on grass? Plus I get points?

Niners +3.5

Niners M/L

Niners 1st half, 2nd half, O/T, whatever.............

       Both teams are having a stellar year. We can all be impressed on how the Saints light up the board at home. But on the road,they're a "different animal".  While I could see a possibilty of a close 1-2 point win by New Orleans, the most likely scenario is a San Francisco win & cover. 

SAN FRANCISCO   +3.5

The Niners, at home, have defeated the following teams this season:  Seattle, Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Arizona, St. Louis, NY Giants (teams with a 34-62 record combined).  Yes, they beat Pittsburgh recently on MNF (lead by a hobbling Big Ben at the helm) but they also lost to Dallas in Week 2 at home.  We know were Dallas is right now.   Yes, the Niners have won well at home for sure, but not against anyone high-caliber.  But I do believe the Saints will be the most formidable opponent yet for the Niners.  Mind you, on the flip side, the Saints will face their toughest test to date in the high-caliber defense San Fran brings.  New Orleans will field their number one passing offense, as prolific as it is, going up against a San Fran pass defense ranked 16th overall.  And, even if the Saints don’t get the big pass plays off, or succumb to home crowd noise, they’ll scheme just enough and win on the dink-and-dunk, check-downs, and screen plays.  But, the Niners 2nd best defense will put the Saints to the test, no question about it!  

I believe the fact that the Saints have a healthy backfield is a plus, no matter what public-perceived limited chance the Saints have in running against the Niners – Saints coach Payton and co. will mix it up enough (using concoctions that many opposing coaches this season have hinted admittedly as being potent and hard to scheme against) and could potentially give the Niners matchup nightmares they’ve yet to face this season, eventually wearing them down into the fourth quarter.  Actually, I don’t think ‘first year’ coach Harbaugh and co. will be able to keep up thru the fourth quarter... I’ve heard some arguments he’s in over his head... then again, aside from all that chatter, who really knows? 

I do think the Saints have enough in their arsenal to pull off the win.  To me, there is a reason why they’re favored, even as the number 3 seed playing on the road at the 2nd seed.  The Saints have won six straight and they’re 4-2 ATS against the 49ers in those last six.  In their last meeting versus the Niners at San Fran on MNF Week 2 in 2010, Brees came up with that last minute late drive, then a 37-yard field goal after time expired to cap that winning drive that gave the Saints a 25-22 victory over the Niners.  That game was tight but I do see a similar scoring outcome, something like 27-23 or 24 for the Saints.  Funny thing is that a few weeks back, I was in the same decision making mode when the Saints were at Tennessee.  I decided to bet against the Saints and take the Titans with the points based on the strength of the Titans D at home, and the Saints went into Tennessee as 3.5 point favs and won, they also covered in that 22-17 win.  The Titans are not the Niners by any stretch, but I do remember how the same argument came into play for potential Saints backers like me, whether they could go on the road outdoors and beat a stronger defense in the Titans.  We were proven wrong. Still, not sure 'yet' if the Saints will cover that half point on three in this one.

San Francisco has not won or been to a playoff game since 2002, when they ‘memorably’ rallied past the NY Giants for a 39-38 victory.  Most certainly though, a decade later, give coach Jim Harbaugh props, he should get coach of the year honors, hands down.   But when push comes to shove, I’d have to lean more on experienced coaches Payton and dc Williams, they’ve already ‘been there and done that’.  In fact, any day, I would take coach Payton over Harbaugh’s ‘virgin’ journey through what is truly unchartered territory for him.  I don’t think the 49ers want to get into any kind of offensive shootout with the Saints, because I would certainly take QB Brees over Smith any day too.   I believe this game will come down to time of possession, and turnovers.  The team winning the battle in both categories will win this one.  San Francisco finished first in turnover ratio in 2011 with an astounding +28 I believe, so the Saints will have to play disciplined ball (last week the Saints turned the ball over twice in their win over the Lions).   

Strangely though, I was on all the home teams last week and the home teams did well – something tells me the road teams will take their turn in a flipped wacky divisional playoff trend this weekend.  Maybe.  Well, it would not surprise me in the slightest.  For this one though, the Saints should put together a game plan that should get them the win but I'm not ready to give that half. I will probably take the Niners with the points as I think this game will come down to a boot -- but I may change my mind come Friday or Saturday morning.  The Saints are coming off their home win over Detroit and head into this one with more momentum than the Niners do.  So I am leaning on the Saints for the win straight up by three.