This will be closer than the spread. I would take Michigan, especially if they are getting double digit points. Henne will be healthy and so will Hart. Carr's last game, so Michigan has a lot to play for, Florida really doesn't. Florida's defense also kind of sucks against the pass, so I would expect Henne to be able to complete some balls to Manningham. So Hart should be able to run the ball, he may not even need the passing game doing well to be able to run. Michigan's defense is actually okay against the pass, so Florida will have to run with Tebow a lot I think. I'm not saying Michigan definitely wins, but I think there are a lot more scenarios that keep these teams within single digits than ones that don't. I basically don't think Michigan has to play a flawless game to stay close or win. I do think Florida has to play extremely well to blow out Michigan where they are safe from Michigan getting a late backdoor cover. Of course, one team could turn the ball over 4 times and give up two punt return TD's and then no amount of reasonable analysis matters.
This will be closer than the spread. I would take Michigan, especially if they are getting double digit points. Henne will be healthy and so will Hart. Carr's last game, so Michigan has a lot to play for, Florida really doesn't. Florida's defense also kind of sucks against the pass, so I would expect Henne to be able to complete some balls to Manningham. So Hart should be able to run the ball, he may not even need the passing game doing well to be able to run. Michigan's defense is actually okay against the pass, so Florida will have to run with Tebow a lot I think. I'm not saying Michigan definitely wins, but I think there are a lot more scenarios that keep these teams within single digits than ones that don't. I basically don't think Michigan has to play a flawless game to stay close or win. I do think Florida has to play extremely well to blow out Michigan where they are safe from Michigan getting a late backdoor cover. Of course, one team could turn the ball over 4 times and give up two punt return TD's and then no amount of reasonable analysis matters.
I'll wait to see how this line moves -- I expect the spread to go higher with all the pro-sec, anti-B10 sentiment. Depending on how it gets I may take Michigan in this spot. When you consider that:
- it's Lloyd Carr's final game - healthy Mike Hart - healthy Chad Henne - plenty of time for MI to prepare
I expect they'll keep it close enough for jazz. But this depends on just how healthy Henne and Hart are.
I'll wait to see how this line moves -- I expect the spread to go higher with all the pro-sec, anti-B10 sentiment. Depending on how it gets I may take Michigan in this spot. When you consider that:
- it's Lloyd Carr's final game - healthy Mike Hart - healthy Chad Henne - plenty of time for MI to prepare
I expect they'll keep it close enough for jazz. But this depends on just how healthy Henne and Hart are.
I'll wait to see how this line moves -- I expect the spread to go higher with all the pro-sec, anti-B10 sentiment. Depending on how it gets I may take Michigan in this spot. When you consider that:
- it's Lloyd Carr's final game - healthy Mike Hart - healthy Chad Henne - plenty of time for MI to prepare
I expect they'll keep it close enough for jazz. But this depends on just how healthy Henne and Hart are.
Does seem high to me as well.. Florida can play weak at times.. Tebow will own these guys though, I don't think the Mich D can hang with Floridas O....Will wait, if it goes to 14 I'm on Mich.
I'll wait to see how this line moves -- I expect the spread to go higher with all the pro-sec, anti-B10 sentiment. Depending on how it gets I may take Michigan in this spot. When you consider that:
- it's Lloyd Carr's final game - healthy Mike Hart - healthy Chad Henne - plenty of time for MI to prepare
I expect they'll keep it close enough for jazz. But this depends on just how healthy Henne and Hart are.
Does seem high to me as well.. Florida can play weak at times.. Tebow will own these guys though, I don't think the Mich D can hang with Floridas O....Will wait, if it goes to 14 I'm on Mich.
people seem to have a short remember with Michigan... the last time they played a team that resembles Florida was a 39-7 whooping against Oregon... same kind of athletic QB, spread offense, lots of speed... their D can't handle a team like that... and don't forget about their Rose Bowl thumping against USC last year...
people seem to have a short remember with Michigan... the last time they played a team that resembles Florida was a 39-7 whooping against Oregon... same kind of athletic QB, spread offense, lots of speed... their D can't handle a team like that... and don't forget about their Rose Bowl thumping against USC last year...
Florida is my top bowl game POY... statistically they dominate mich... in schedule they dominate mich... and speed the dominate mich... plus i would chose any spread offense against any big 10 team... no big house... its app. st... with faster players...
Florida is my top bowl game POY... statistically they dominate mich... in schedule they dominate mich... and speed the dominate mich... plus i would chose any spread offense against any big 10 team... no big house... its app. st... with faster players...
its in orlando, I'm remembering to pay attention to game location again this year, as it worked well last yeah, of course the line is adjusted for that already, or maybe not yet, and vegas is gonna let us adjust it like usual as our money comes in, here are a few more
Nevada vs NM in alberquerque (who knows who cares, but taking a look)
CenMich vs Purdue in Detriot (home dog basically, big 10 sucks)
TCU vs HoustonU in Houston(this one goes either way i suppose)
UConn vs Wake in Charlotte(always loving wakes play)
PennSt vs Tam in San Antonio (f this game)
ILL vs USC in the Rose Bowl (killed mich last year, Juice W. sucks, 14 pt spread, tease maybe)
OSU vs LSU in NO (killed ND here last year, lean on OSU though)
its in orlando, I'm remembering to pay attention to game location again this year, as it worked well last yeah, of course the line is adjusted for that already, or maybe not yet, and vegas is gonna let us adjust it like usual as our money comes in, here are a few more
Nevada vs NM in alberquerque (who knows who cares, but taking a look)
CenMich vs Purdue in Detriot (home dog basically, big 10 sucks)
TCU vs HoustonU in Houston(this one goes either way i suppose)
UConn vs Wake in Charlotte(always loving wakes play)
PennSt vs Tam in San Antonio (f this game)
ILL vs USC in the Rose Bowl (killed mich last year, Juice W. sucks, 14 pt spread, tease maybe)
OSU vs LSU in NO (killed ND here last year, lean on OSU though)
a couple more location games you might consider are...
Ore St vs Maryland in SF
Georgia vs Hawaii in NO
travel and fan turnout can be big in bowl games... hard to see Md being as pumped for that bowl as OSU, and Georgia will be out to show a WAC team can't come into SEC country and win... both matchups represent top conferences vs. weaker conferences, too...
a couple more location games you might consider are...
Ore St vs Maryland in SF
Georgia vs Hawaii in NO
travel and fan turnout can be big in bowl games... hard to see Md being as pumped for that bowl as OSU, and Georgia will be out to show a WAC team can't come into SEC country and win... both matchups represent top conferences vs. weaker conferences, too...
Beware of the Heisman jinx in bowl games. Happened last year and the year before. I was actaully glad to see Tebow win the Heisman. It made my decision to bet against Florida even easier. Michigan will be emotionally fired up. All logic says to play Florida, but a healthy, fired up Michigan team keeps this one closer than everyone thinks.
Beware of the Heisman jinx in bowl games. Happened last year and the year before. I was actaully glad to see Tebow win the Heisman. It made my decision to bet against Florida even easier. Michigan will be emotionally fired up. All logic says to play Florida, but a healthy, fired up Michigan team keeps this one closer than everyone thinks.
Fuck Michigan.....Florida will beat box Michigan like a rag doll in a gun powder fed pitt bull. If you think otherwise you need to stop smoking crack it's bad for the brain you limp dick non box getting card board box living hideous dellusioned wanna be handicapper piece of feces.
Fuck Michigan.....Florida will beat box Michigan like a rag doll in a gun powder fed pitt bull. If you think otherwise you need to stop smoking crack it's bad for the brain you limp dick non box getting card board box living hideous dellusioned wanna be handicapper piece of feces.
Bring it you Mother Fucking Wolverines-FUCK the Big 10 those fat slow bastards.....couldn't catc a monkey running with the ball. THE SEC RULES THE PLANET!!!!!! Don't you Northern Yankee Monkeys ever forget it. BRING IT MOTHER FUCKERS BECAUSE WE ARE!!!!!
Bring it you Mother Fucking Wolverines-FUCK the Big 10 those fat slow bastards.....couldn't catc a monkey running with the ball. THE SEC RULES THE PLANET!!!!!! Don't you Northern Yankee Monkeys ever forget it. BRING IT MOTHER FUCKERS BECAUSE WE ARE!!!!!
optimist will you be my friend ? cuz gotta fade michigan here. seen enough of them this season to understand man for man they are not the same as years past. You really gotta pull for things to work out for michigan in this one. Highly doubt they stop tebow and the rest of these future NFL draftees vs a handful of lazy recruits .
optimist will you be my friend ? cuz gotta fade michigan here. seen enough of them this season to understand man for man they are not the same as years past. You really gotta pull for things to work out for michigan in this one. Highly doubt they stop tebow and the rest of these future NFL draftees vs a handful of lazy recruits .
people seem to have a short remember with Michigan... the last time they played a team that resembles Florida was a 39-7 whooping against Oregon... same kind of athletic QB, spread offense, lots of speed... their D can't handle a team like that... and don't forget about their Rose Bowl thumping against USC last year...
I am no Michigan fan, trust me... I would be fine with it if they lose and don't cover. I'm just pointing out some alternate points that I think many people are glossing over, in their rush to back the Heisman winner and last year's champ.
One of the common cliches at play here is "SEC=fast v. Big10=slow." The other one is that Michigan is out of their league whenever they play a spread offense. Bettors need to be careful they don't fall into a trap here.
Overall the SEC is better this year, yes. And last year. But the difference is not THAT huge. You are still talking about a matchup between two high profile programs where one team won 1 more game than the other and the spread is 10 pts.
Michigan started the year in embarrassing fashion, losing to App St and Oregon, both featuring spread offenses. But UM's D was young and inexperienced at that point. They are not the same D they were in September.
Most people are unaware that there ARE spread offenses in the Big 10. Illinois is one, and Mich beat them 27-17. The other teams running a spread are Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana. Mich beat both Purdue and NU, and did not play Indiana.
Florida is still the better team here, and will likely win. But those assuming it will be a runaway similar to the BCSCG last year may be in for a surprise against a UM team with a number of intangibles in their favor. You can bet the Wolverines believe they can do the unthinkable and pull an upset of their own, bookending the season with a shocking loss and a shocking win.
That said, one thing working against them is the rumor mill regarding who will be coach next year. I'm sure there are some assistants there who may be more consumed with that issue than winning the bowl game.
people seem to have a short remember with Michigan... the last time they played a team that resembles Florida was a 39-7 whooping against Oregon... same kind of athletic QB, spread offense, lots of speed... their D can't handle a team like that... and don't forget about their Rose Bowl thumping against USC last year...
I am no Michigan fan, trust me... I would be fine with it if they lose and don't cover. I'm just pointing out some alternate points that I think many people are glossing over, in their rush to back the Heisman winner and last year's champ.
One of the common cliches at play here is "SEC=fast v. Big10=slow." The other one is that Michigan is out of their league whenever they play a spread offense. Bettors need to be careful they don't fall into a trap here.
Overall the SEC is better this year, yes. And last year. But the difference is not THAT huge. You are still talking about a matchup between two high profile programs where one team won 1 more game than the other and the spread is 10 pts.
Michigan started the year in embarrassing fashion, losing to App St and Oregon, both featuring spread offenses. But UM's D was young and inexperienced at that point. They are not the same D they were in September.
Most people are unaware that there ARE spread offenses in the Big 10. Illinois is one, and Mich beat them 27-17. The other teams running a spread are Purdue, Northwestern, and Indiana. Mich beat both Purdue and NU, and did not play Indiana.
Florida is still the better team here, and will likely win. But those assuming it will be a runaway similar to the BCSCG last year may be in for a surprise against a UM team with a number of intangibles in their favor. You can bet the Wolverines believe they can do the unthinkable and pull an upset of their own, bookending the season with a shocking loss and a shocking win.
That said, one thing working against them is the rumor mill regarding who will be coach next year. I'm sure there are some assistants there who may be more consumed with that issue than winning the bowl game.
Danstyk... i have thought about your Illinois point... that they are a spread offense... but they are a spread offense that doesn't pass the ball effectively... those have been the teams that have given Michigan fits... i don't buy that they have just suddenly healed those problems... not against a Florida caliber offense...
Danstyk... i have thought about your Illinois point... that they are a spread offense... but they are a spread offense that doesn't pass the ball effectively... those have been the teams that have given Michigan fits... i don't buy that they have just suddenly healed those problems... not against a Florida caliber offense...
I agree with you, that is the difference. Juice Wms is not a great passer, and in fact I saw him pulled briefly from one game. But it is also not like Mich just wilts with confusion at the spread formation. They have seen it before. I guess when I see everyone all over one team I feel compelled to look the other way and play devil's advocate. I'm not betting on Michigan, but I think 10 pts may be 3 too many. I'm looking at other games before this one.
I agree with you, that is the difference. Juice Wms is not a great passer, and in fact I saw him pulled briefly from one game. But it is also not like Mich just wilts with confusion at the spread formation. They have seen it before. I guess when I see everyone all over one team I feel compelled to look the other way and play devil's advocate. I'm not betting on Michigan, but I think 10 pts may be 3 too many. I'm looking at other games before this one.
Told myself right when the line came out that I would take Florida and I'm not changing my mind. If Michigan wins I'll take the loss like a man but I'm in no way going to loose my money betting on Michigan in this game!
Told myself right when the line came out that I would take Florida and I'm not changing my mind. If Michigan wins I'll take the loss like a man but I'm in no way going to loose my money betting on Michigan in this game!
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