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Author: [College Football] Topic: Texas at Baylor (12/07/2013)
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#1
Posted: 12/1/2013 4:42:39 AM

Away:  Texas [6-5 ATS]
Home:  Baylor [8-3 ATS]

Game Time: 3:30 PM
Stadium: Floyd Casey Stadium

Recent Meetings:
10/20/12 - BAY 50 vs. TEX 56
12/03/11 - TEX 24 vs. BAY 48
10/30/10 - BAY 30 vs. TEX 22

Team Leaders:

Texas:
Passing: Case McCoy (1831)
Rushing: Johnathan Gray (780)
Receiving: Mike Davis (701)

Baylor:
Passing: Bryce Petty (3567)
Rushing: Lache Seastrunk (982)
Receiving: Antwan Goodley (1215)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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echelon1
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#2
Posted: 12/2/2013 7:17:48 AM
My advise to anyone breaking this game down is make sure not to just assume Baylor is the beast many thought they were and Texas is the scrub they once were labeled.  Their last 3 games were very comparable with the 2 better opponents playing each team.  Take a look at the results.

Baylor (Tech, OSU, TCU)
Texas (West Va, OSU, Tech)

Total Offense: Baylor 499, Texas 429
Rush Offense: Baylor 199, Texas 195
Pass Offense: Baylor 300, Texas 234
Pts. Scored: Baylor 121, Texas 101
Scoring Avg: Baylor   40, Texas   34

Total Defense: Baylor 486, Texas 392
Rush Defense: Baylor 137, Texas 129
Pass Defense: Baylor 349 ,Texas 263
Pts. Allowed: Baylor 121, Texas   94
Scoring Avg. Baylor   40, Texas   31

Baylor is ahead on offense due to superior passing numbers and slightly higher scoring average, Texas is far ahead on the defensive side of the ball, mostly in pass defense and 9 points per game better in scoring defense.

The most telling stat I see is Baylor is 121-121 in scoring over the last 3 games, and they are getting lit up in the passing game.  Texas is 101-94 in scoring.  The weather will be very cold with a high of 38 and likely wet which should relegate the game towards the ground a little more.  Over the last 3 games the rushing offenses are nearly deadlocked, and Texas has been slightly stingier on the ground.

To me this all adds up to one thing...there is no way I can justify giving up 14 points and siding with Baylor here.  They may very well win the game, and they may win by 10 in the end, but over 2 TDs is highly unlikely with both teams coming with their best effort.  Baylor is not as good as the once appeared (see KSU, OSU, and TCU games), and Texas is not as bad as they have appeared (BYU, Ole Miss, OSU).  Look for a hard fought game between 2 hungry teams.  Texas is the more physical team, Baylor is the faster, finesse squad.  Don't be shocked if this one looks a lot like TCU and Baylor did this pass weekend.  Texas winning outright would shock few people in the know.  IMO, I see Baylor pulling one out by 3-10.  

However, my money has to go large on Texas +14 with what I've seen all year from these teams and their style match-ups in this one.   .  
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#3
Posted: 12/3/2013 7:16:58 AM
I am from the 40 acres.  I am telling you, bet Baylor.
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#4
Posted: 12/3/2013 6:17:00 PM

agreed with Echelon...   took TCU last week at 2 TDs, and may follow on TX...    But Baylor is so D A M N good at home.  just a different energy on the side line and in the field.    They score at a higher clip, they play D with a stronger edge, and they play much faster on both sides of the ball.   Texas run D isn't exactly their strength, but keeping a team at bay passing helps them load the box (TTU,TCU - Ws; OSU, Miss - Ls)

Depending on weather, UNDER is a decent look for me

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#5
Posted: 12/4/2013 12:43:31 AM

      All's is I know that Mack Brown covers  at 80% when the Longhorns are road dogs .More importantly Texas should be competitive with the Bears here. I know it's a big order here playing Baylor at home where it has a tendency to run up the score. I feel HC Brown will have his very talented kids play like they're possessed in this spot. Oklahoma St. and TCU softened the bears up,now it's time to put the wounded Bears out of their misery. I am not asking for miracles,but I strongly feel a cover is possible!

TEXAS    +   14.5  (Prime Play!)

 

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#6
Posted: 12/4/2013 9:17:15 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by echelon1:

My advise to anyone breaking this game down is make sure not to just assume Baylor is the beast many thought they were and Texas is the scrub they once were labeled.  Their last 3 games were very comparable with the 2 better opponents playing each team.  Take a look at the results.

Baylor (Tech, OSU, TCU)
Texas (West Va, OSU, Tech)

Total Offense: Baylor 499, Texas 429
Rush Offense: Baylor 199, Texas 195
Pass Offense: Baylor 300, Texas 234
Pts. Scored: Baylor 121, Texas 101
Scoring Avg: Baylor   40, Texas   34

Total Defense: Baylor 486, Texas 392
Rush Defense: Baylor 137, Texas 129
Pass Defense: Baylor 349 ,Texas 263
Pts. Allowed: Baylor 121, Texas   94
Scoring Avg. Baylor   40, Texas   31

Baylor is ahead on offense due to superior passing numbers and slightly higher scoring average, Texas is far ahead on the defensive side of the ball, mostly in pass defense and 9 points per game better in scoring defense.

The most telling stat I see is Baylor is 121-121 in scoring over the last 3 games, and they are getting lit up in the passing game.  Texas is 101-94 in scoring.  The weather will be very cold with a high of 38 and likely wet which should relegate the game towards the ground a little more.  Over the last 3 games the rushing offenses are nearly deadlocked, and Texas has been slightly stingier on the ground.

To me this all adds up to one thing...there is no way I can justify giving up 14 points and siding with Baylor here.  They may very well win the game, and they may win by 10 in the end, but over 2 TDs is highly unlikely with both teams coming with their best effort.  Baylor is not as good as the once appeared (see KSU, OSU, and TCU games), and Texas is not as bad as they have appeared (BYU, Ole Miss, OSU).  Look for a hard fought game between 2 hungry teams.  Texas is the more physical team, Baylor is the faster, finesse squad.  Don't be shocked if this one looks a lot like TCU and Baylor did this pass weekend.  Texas winning outright would shock few people in the know.  IMO, I see Baylor pulling one out by 3-10.  

However, my money has to go large on Texas +14 with what I've seen all year from these teams and their style match-ups in this one.   .  

WOW......

this guy is already giving us the weather report a week in advance!!  
Imagine the satellites he must have in his backyard!! 

BAYLOR

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#7
Posted: 12/4/2013 8:24:01 PM
I am a diehard Longhorn fan (see my name), and I am afraid this game could get really ugly for my Horns. The weather may help them if it is bad like they have predicted and may allow Texas to get some turnovers. I am just afraid the Texas defense will not be able to keep up and Baylor puts 60+ on the scoreboard. 
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#8
Posted: 12/5/2013 11:54:33 AM
After I got burnt on Baylor last week.. Texas +14.5

And I will (ML) for a small play... Besides the 2 picks for tds Baylor didn't do squat ... 
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#9
Posted: 12/5/2013 11:46:43 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by coitus_maximus:

I am from the 40 acres.  I am telling you, bet Baylor.

and you think anyone not associated with UT knows what your 40 acre reference means...and what qualifies you to make an assessment that Baylor will cover...maybe they will, but basing that on "your coming 40 acre's seems kind of weak...

if you would have said, well, Texas dominated TCU at their house, while Baylor struggled,  or Texas got dominated by Ok St and so did Baylor...wait, both would support either Texas winning outright or at least playing a competitive game and maybe covering a DD spread...

I have know damn clue if Texas will cover or not...is it Mack Browns last regular season game or is it not...

I think the spread is just right... and thus a no play for me...GLTA

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#10
Posted: 12/6/2013 1:51:42 AM
My little addition to this debate in watching Baylor, thoroughly, over the last 4/5 years is that they play far better at home than on the road.  They are 7-0 ATS at home and only 1-3 on the road this year.  
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#11
Posted: 12/6/2013 7:06:25 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vue21849:

      All's is I know that Mack Brown covers  at 80% when the Longhorns are road dogs .More importantly Texas should be competitive with the Bears here. I know it's a big order here playing Baylor at home where it has a tendency to run up the score. I feel HC Brown will have his very talented kids play like they're possessed in this spot. Oklahoma St. and TCU softened the bears up,now it's time to put the wounded Bears out of their misery. I am not asking for miracles,but I strongly feel a cover is possible!

TEXAS    +   14.5  (Prime Play!)

 



Texas is 10-4 as a road dog under Brown and Baylor is 18-5 with Briles as a HF.  I consider that a wash but I'll take the Bears to cover anyway.
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#12
Posted: 12/6/2013 8:59:32 AM
Bad weather...give me the points...go horns!
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#13
Posted: 12/6/2013 7:56:17 PM
To many points I like Texas to cover that large spread + 16 they will come back to cover this game
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#14
Posted: 12/6/2013 8:23:15 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

and you think anyone not associated with UT knows what your 40 acre reference means...

Thank you.   I am now educated.   40 Acres, Green Acres - I was lost

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#15
Posted: 12/6/2013 10:42:04 PM

what do you folks think about the under 71.5

cold and wet and frozen ball, only suppose to get up to 28 degrees in Waco...Texas D is not bad. sure Baylor playing at home at last game at Floyd Casey, but with Texas having a chance to win Big XII with OK St loss, they will play tough on D.

I hardly ever play O/U, but considering the weather...the U is starting to look good to me...

 

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#16
Posted: 12/7/2013 12:59:34 AM
Baylor worse than they were and Texas better than they weren't. Tex large
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#17
Posted: 12/7/2013 2:25:21 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jonfon:


WOW......

this guy is already giving us the weather report a week in advance!!  
Imagine the satellites he must have in his backyard!! 

BAYLOR

I agree..i actually think Baylor rolls .48-24
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#18
Posted: 12/7/2013 2:26:52 AM
Agree with VUE here...Texas +16... Baylor will score enough to cover but will give up too many points to a solid Texas offense. 41-31 Baylor

...
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#19
Posted: 12/7/2013 10:37:50 AM
Trying to make a name here, going against vue....

Briles wants browns job, he's gonna run up the score... A little concerned that Baylor has covered against a quality opponent

Baylor
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#20
Posted: 12/7/2013 10:59:01 AM
QUOTE

Say what?  Briles just signed a huge extension, he isn't going anywhere for a while.  Also, if you knew the Texas bluebloods who control the hiring/firing, you would know that Briles is not polished enough to show well at their cocktail parties at fund raisers (same reason Orgeron had no real chance at USC job). 

This game is difficult to call because of the weather.  I would have bet Baylor with all the emotion and final game at their stadium against Big Brother, but I am a little concerned about that up-tempo wide open offense.  I still think Baylor wins but my only play of this is Texas +21 1/2 combined with Stanford and 9 on a teaser.  GL to all.

Originally Posted by zzziggy:

Trying to make a name here, going against vue....


Briles wants browns job, he's gonna run up the score... A little concerned that Baylor has covered against a quality opponent

Baylor
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#21
Posted: 12/7/2013 11:55:33 AM
the 10 pt. teaser of the day is TEXAS+26.5/MIZZ.+11.5/ MONTANA+4!!!  I KNOW MONTANA BUT, I'M FROM MYRTLE BEACH AND COASTAL WILL NOT TRAVEL AND WIN AT MONTANA!! IT'S GOING TO BE 0 AT KICKOFF TIME!! I LUV MY HOME TEAM BUT I JUST DON'T SEE US GOING UP THERE IN FRONT OF THAT LOUD behind CROWD!1 FOR A SMALL COLLEGE THERE PLACE HOLDS OVER 25,000!! I HOPE I'M WRONG BUT I DON'T THINK SO!!
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#22
Posted: 12/7/2013 1:36:59 PM
Texas + 16.5 & under
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#23
Posted: 12/7/2013 2:21:39 PM
I'm thinking under first1/2 or texas first1/2 any thoughts? I need a chicken dinner tonight
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#24
Posted: 12/7/2013 2:21:56 PM
I'm thinking under first1/2 or texas first1/2 any thoughts? I need a chicken dinner tonight
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#25
Posted: 12/7/2013 2:52:43 PM
Not reading much on O/U anyone like the under because of weather?
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