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Author: [College Football] Topic: Florida State at Florida (11/30/2013)
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#1
Posted: 11/24/2013 4:10:00 AM

Away:  Florida State [9-2 ATS]
Home:  Florida [4-7 ATS]

Game Time: 12:00 PM
Stadium: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/24/12 - FLA 37 vs. FSU 26
11/26/11 - FSU 21 vs. FLA 7
11/27/10 - FLA 7 vs. FSU 31

Team Leaders:

Florida State:
Passing: Jameis Winston (3163)
Rushing: Devonta Freeman (808)
Receiving: Rashad Greene (889)

Florida:
Passing: Tyler Murphy (1216)
Rushing: Mack Brown (527)
Receiving: Solomon Patton (554)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 11/26/2013 5:59:52 PM
The O/U opened up at 44.  I'm pounding the over.  Nobody will stop FSU this year.  Not even Bama.  My dream team to bet was Oregon but FSU have been a better's dream team.  I am pounding the Over all the way to the bank for this Saturday's game, next Saturday and after January when they play Bama because Florida State is for REAL this year. 
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#3
Posted: 11/27/2013 12:17:00 PM

OK.......   I need to wait for someone smarter than me to tell my why this line is so low..

FSU score 44 in all games except MIA (41), but that game still went over...

Now, I'll take FSU out of the equation....   FLA D has given up 20 in 5 games this year to much worse teams....     We could argue the inept FLA O, but all those turnovers will be converted to points.   Picks in their own territory wont have a chance to turn into FGs, when it's taken to the house immediately...

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#4
Posted: 11/27/2013 1:08:14 PM

I was a little perplexed by that o/u too. I bet on the over heavy also. I see it about 21-7 at the half then the flood gates will open. Gators will try to pass once they get down by about 3 td's and I see a pick six. I'm thinking FSU 49-13

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#5
Posted: 11/28/2013 7:02:08 AM
Over 44 is a sucker bet.  That line is off by 20 points.  This game has fix written all over it.  Every sucker and their momma gonna load up on the over and then after the game they're gonna say "what happened?"  I'll tell you what happened, the fix was on.
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#6
Posted: 11/28/2013 10:27:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ArtSchlicter:

Over 44 is a sucker bet.  That line is off by 20 points.  This game has fix written all over it.  Every sucker and their momma gonna load up on the over and then after the game they're gonna say "what happened?"  I'll tell you what happened, the fix was on.


I wouldn't go as far as saying it's a sucker bet.  The number is in line with most Florida numbers have been all year.  I think the number should be in the 49 - 55 range if you factor in Fl State's offensive power.  If the number was 55, I would err on the side of caution to pick the over.  There are two scenarios that could happen for the game to go under 44.  One, Florida State blowout Florida and it's a sided-affair.  Two, Florida's defense holds Fl St to less than 30 points.  I don't see Florida scoring more than 10 points in this affair.  This is why people call it gambling -- never know what's going to happen.  I am putting $4.5k on the over simply because I think Winston will be motivated to perform his best this Saturday so that he could get to the front of the line in hunt for the Heisman race.  I think Winston will win the Heisman this year but it's predicated on his performance this Saturday and and how he performs in the ACC championship game.
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#7
Posted: 11/29/2013 12:14:46 AM

I like FSU to cover this spread and gave the 27 points.  Noles owe the gators a little payback from last year and I don't think there is much that can stop them.  I expect Florida to come out to play  hard in a rivalry game after getting pounded for over a month by everyone they have played but I just don't see the talent to do so on either side of the ball.  And I am not sure the team hasn't quit on Muschamp.  FSU should cruise in this game.

FSU   -27     4 unit play for me      FSU wins this game    48-9

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#8
Posted: 11/29/2013 11:19:43 AM
I jumped on FS and over.  I cannot see these two fine teams not scoring 11 points per quarter between them.  But it could happen as I am wrong <50% of the time. 
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#9
Posted: 11/29/2013 12:42:40 PM
who says fsu cant win 42-0? fsu and under for me

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#10
Posted: 11/29/2013 12:43:08 PM
at worse 35-7 just enought to cover the 27.5
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#11
Posted: 11/29/2013 4:01:45 PM
Interesting line, how often do you see a 28 pt spread with a 44 total . Floridas offense is completely inept though, that means the oddsmaker anticipate this being a completely one sided affaair but foresee florida at least stalling some of states drives out, which isn't out of the question considering the defensive talent that florida still has. 
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#12
Posted: 11/29/2013 6:46:54 PM
Over all day...should be close to it by half...pick of the day
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#13
Posted: 11/29/2013 7:23:23 PM
Over almost seems too easy.Never look a gift horse.....
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#14
Posted: 11/29/2013 10:13:48 PM
The crazy part is that makes Floridas team total 8. At home. I can't imagine that has ever happened. @Beechernic...Miami vs FSU did not go over, it was FSUs only under this year.
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#15
Posted: 11/29/2013 10:24:27 PM
And a side note, if you placed a $1k parlay on FSU and the over every game this year, you would be up almost $18k.
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#16
Posted: 11/29/2013 11:56:55 PM
Why is the total not higher? Because this is take your money week. Look how it is unfolding this far. Gonna be 35-7 or 31-10! Just watch
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#17
Posted: 11/30/2013 12:30:54 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DrDogs:

Because this is take your money week. 

   THIS!!!!

UGGGGHHHHH  Tell me about it.....      After today, Nothing looks good

Im restarted looking at games in "rivalry week" that aren't typical rivalries...   IA/NEB   PNSt/WIS    PIT/MIA   MASS/OHIO    ALA/AUB (jk)

if anything....narrowing the field down may help for Sat.    Or just double up on anything I like and LordZud tails me on   I joke

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#18
Posted: 11/30/2013 4:10:03 AM
This game is fixed.  There's no way this total can be that low.  It seems almost impossible for this game to go under.  And when a bet seems impossible, it is a LOCK to go the other way.  I predict there will be running play after running play.  75 yard drives that end with a t/o in the red zone.  Multiple running plays on 3rd and goal from outside  the 5 yard line.  Missed field goals.  All the makings of a classic puntfest.
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#19
Posted: 11/30/2013 6:49:02 AM
I wouldn't go as far as saying it's a sucker bet.  The number is in line with most Florida numbers have been all year.  I think the number should be in the 49 - 55 range if you factor in Fl State's offensive power.  If the number was 55, I would err on the side of caution to pick the over.  There are two scenarios that could happen for the game to go under 44.  One, Florida State blowout Florida and it's a sided-affair.  Two, Florida's defense holds Fl St to less than 30 points.  I don't see Florida scoring more than 10 points in this affair.  This is why people call it gambling -- never know what's going to happen.  I am putting $4.5k on the over simply because I think Winston will be motivated to perform his best this Saturday so that he could get to the front of the line in hunt for the Heisman race.  I think Winston will win the Heisman this year but it's predicated on his performance this Saturday and and how he performs in the ACC championship game.         TIGGA76 I'M WITH YOU  I THING THIS GAME WILL GO OVER 45 POINT   FLORIDA ST 47 FLORIDA 9
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#20
Posted: 11/30/2013 7:34:18 AM

Don't read to much into the over until it stops going up by game time.Then we can decide o/u.

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#21
Posted: 11/30/2013 9:33:10 AM
It's tough to lay this many points in a rivalry game.  Florida will struggle to score but their D can play.  Coach is a dud, but team may rally behind him.  
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#22
Posted: 11/30/2013 9:35:03 AM

If anything take the points and florida.

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#23
Posted: 11/30/2013 9:56:02 AM
This will go over in the 1st quarter
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#24
Posted: 11/30/2013 10:06:38 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BigEarnie:

It's tough to lay this many points in a rivalry game.  Florida will struggle to score but their D can play.  Coach is a dud, but team may rally behind him.  

Spot on brother !   


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#25
Posted: 11/30/2013 10:40:16 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by DrDogs:

Why is the total not higher? Because this is take your money week. Look how it is unfolding this far. Gonna be 35-7 or 31-10! Just watch

totally agree here.  Fsu is locked at #2 and will give their 2nd team more playing time.  I will play 2nd half here depending on how 1h goes. 

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