Buffalo at Toledo (11/12/2013)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Buffalo at Toledo (11/12/2013)
Covers PM Covers
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Posted: 11/10/2013 7:00:28 AM

Away:  Buffalo [7-2 ATS]
Home:  Toledo [6-2-1 ATS]

Game Time: 7:30 PM
Stadium: Glass Bowl

Recent Meetings:
10/27/12 - TOL 25 vs. BUFF 20
10/13/07 - TOL 33 vs. BUFF 43
10/22/05 - BUFF 15 vs. TOL 38

Team Leaders:

Buffalo:
Passing: Joe Licata (1738)
Rushing: Branden Oliver (1123)
Receiving: Alex Neutz (697)

Toledo:
Passing: Terrance Owens (1609)
Rushing: David Fluellen (1060)
Receiving: Bernard Reedy (587)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

greeneyeddevils PM greeneyeddevils
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Posted: 11/10/2013 7:37:15 PM
This should be a great game...If the Bulls win this game they will more or less win the Mac since they get Miami Oh the week after..I think the total could be high 50's low 60's once this opens...Buffalo D has been playing great ball week after week..Toledo has been lighting it up against the lesser teams in the Mac...but I have a feeling this one will be lower scoring Tues night with Buffalo knowing what's on the line..If Oliver keeps running the ball like he's been doing the Toledo D will have a tough time containing this little fireball...Give me the Bulls here & +4

Buffalo 28

Toledo 24


lordzud PM lordzud
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Posted: 11/10/2013 8:48:43 PM
Greeneyeddevil  is right about this guy Oliver, he is going to be playing on Sundays next year. On paper it looks like Toledo should win, they have played the tougher schedule, and they are playing at home. But Buffalo is one of those teams that seems to get better every week, man this team plays hard. They aren't very big but Buffalo is a senior led team that is on a mission. They beat the snot out of Ohio last week. I'm thinking Buffalo money line for the small at this point. I'll see later in the week.
FridgeSWOSU PM FridgeSWOSU
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Posted: 11/11/2013 2:00:19 AM
Toledo
MasterNBA PM MasterNBA
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Posted: 11/11/2013 2:32:38 AM
Toledo 
nekonaga PM nekonaga
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Posted: 11/11/2013 10:40:31 AM
i want to like toledo here but im afraid the numbers say toledo has the lead until the late 3rd quarter or starting the fourth and buffalo takes the lead and dosent look back buffalo defense will be stingy in the fourth quarter per numbers!
FleshGordun PM FleshGordun
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Posted: 11/11/2013 4:11:55 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by lordzud] Greeneyeddevil  is right about this guy Oliver, he is going to be playing on Sundays next year. On paper it looks like Toledo should win, they have played the tougher schedule, and they are playing at home. But Buffalo is one of those teams that seems to get better every week, man this team plays hard. They aren't very big but Buffalo is a senior led team that is on a mission. They beat the snot out of Ohio last week. I'm thinking Buffalo money line for the small at this point. I'll see later in the week. [/Quote
 
greeneyeddevils PM greeneyeddevils
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Posted: 11/11/2013 7:03:13 PM
Bulls D hasn't given up more than 23 points in 7 weeks...makes me wonder what Toledo will do here...I only really count the 2 games in the Mac where they played tight...a 7 point loss to Ball St & a 3 point win over B Green..other than that those games where they blow out Emich..& W Mich don't say much since eveyone has been pounding those 2 all season..the point up a big number on Navy but seems alot of teams do too...so If the Bulls D plays as tight as they've been playing the last few weeks we should be in for a great game..road game & all I'm hoping the Bulls pull this game out because they deserve the Mac title the way they've played of late..Want to see them in Mac championship game vs N ILL or Ball St...
DrDogs PM DrDogs
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Posted: 11/12/2013 1:11:48 AM
Toledo starting rb fluellen missed last game. Nfl type Ankle injury. high or low sprain. He is pretty solid but mainly has beat up on lesser defenses. Buff defense pretty stout. Supposedly backup rbs pretty. good too. We know buffalo rb Oliver awesome. Be curious to see what total will be hmmm. The damn Mac getting more talented ever year
DrDogs PM DrDogs
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Posted: 11/12/2013 1:12:54 AM
NFL type back not injury. Gdamn autocorrect
ArloPhoto83 PM ArloPhoto83
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Posted: 11/12/2013 2:36:51 AM
Newbie here, but not to the game... Gonna be seeing a lot of me on here.  I would say College Football machine, paychecks on Saturdays, small plays on Sundays, cause the NFL, can and will destroy your week...B-ball here and there... I'm just a Doc Photographer, living in Guatemala, lotta time on my hands to cap/scout games out, and making a decent living off it... Done with the BS... The play is BUFF with out a doubt, possibly a small ML, but the +3 and a hook is making me see $$$.  I'm originally from Mass and know how absolutely terrible UMass football is, but at the time Buff smokes em, they were playing decent fb, coming off a win (now back to their old ways of getting popped last week, but it was Jordan Lynch, who is NFL worthy with size and speed as a QB), and the 21 (Bowling) and the 17 (Vandy, SEC, solid as we saw last week) pt defeats to those 2 in a 3 game span.  These little things, and these are some points I look at, the absolute annihilation of a team moving forward by a team moving forward at a completely different speed.  You guys are right, this team gets better every week.  BUFF +3.5, and I would just stay away from the total all together.  Lets see if we can go 1-0 on the posts.
jrcatando PM jrcatando
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Posted: 11/12/2013 11:22:54 AM

Welcome to the BOARD Photo83.  I agree with you, buffalo is improving and on a mission.  Very good points Re: wagering by using 2-3 week windows, or snapshots of a season to gain betting angle.  I often look at a team knowing who they play the following week and do an "IF then wager" (IF they win this week, then I do a certain thing the following week. Lets face it, the entire sport is about momentum and trends.  The biggest mistake a gambler can make it to look at the teams last weeks performance and let it influence them too much.  I bet by this motto "A team is NEVER as good OR as bad as they were the previous week".  Case in point.  New orleans gets beat by Jets 10 days ago, then pastes the cowboys 7 days later?  seriously? bipolar

GOOD LUCK

lordzud PM lordzud
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Posted: 11/12/2013 12:37:57 PM
Good points photo 83. I don't doubt you make money betting college football. Benvenidos todos. Buffalo now -103 at -3.5. and +160 money line at 5 dimes with reduced odds. I went small on the money line just because I weigh the percentages and to me that is the best bet. If I lose because Buffalo lost by up to 3 points, oh well, I went small just for an action play on a dull Tuesday night anyway. I rarely bet the NFL for the same reason photo83 doesn't. Lines are too damn sharp. There are soooo many more games in college football and footballholics have  a chance to beat them greedy books. Word up.. there is an easier way than watching all the games to get sharp (rumor has it there is more than life than just football) skim the sports forum blogs and find the opinions of multiple sharp cappers, then make your own decision.
DrDogs PM DrDogs
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Posted: 11/12/2013 12:45:40 PM
That and find the mushes on these sites and go opposite. That gets you paid albeit not as fundamentally sound but effective!
kaleb01 PM kaleb01
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Posted: 11/12/2013 1:07:30 PM
Buffalo and the points for the safe play.
Ongdia888 PM Ongdia888
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Posted: 11/12/2013 1:24:45 PM
under... again, I am playin on their D's to step up. 
bubba8u PM bubba8u
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Posted: 11/12/2013 2:24:14 PM
I'm new to the board and capping games. This is pretty much the first year I ever started putting money on games. In the past I have but it's been a long time. I just really enjoy playing football tickets with both college and nfl on it. I usually stay away from the nfl tho for the same exact reasons as you guys do to. I've won on a couple tickets this year but am not satisfied w a couple ya know. Any advice for a new comer like me would b greatly appreciated thanks. I too like buffalo, just think they are playing better FB right now.
Whalewatcher PM Whalewatcher
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:12:16 PM
No play  no reason to force a Tuesday NCAAF bet with all the roundball  tonight. This game's  a coin toss!!
rod34 PM rod34
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:22:25 PM
Spread move to +5 Buffalo
Posted using a mobile device.
Irisheyez PM Irisheyez
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:37:05 PM
Like Run-DMC said.....It'sTtricky!!!  This game makes me nervous as a person in church.....I believe that Toledo is the better all around team and has been here many times before.....playing a big game in the Glass Bowl......and for these two teams it's a huge game......maybe just role with the under and hope for one bad half of football to set it up?  
lordzud PM lordzud
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Posted: 11/12/2013 3:58:22 PM
bubba8u, this message is for, and other new to online betting.

You start with play money, that is whatever you can afford to lose and you deposit in the online site of your choice. I like 5 dimes because it has reduced odds 24 hours before the game but it is your call. The internet is rich with information and misinformation so any advice, including mine is taken from multiple sources before you trust anybody. Just google best online sports betting books and go from there. Next you go through a few year period of being a square, as opposed to a sharp. You can learn the hard way, big painful loses, or you can learn the entertaining fun way. That is what I did, I bet 10 or 20 bucks on a game knowing full well I was going to lose about 5% per bet. That is what it averages out to because most books take 10% from losers. So 5% of 20 dollars is a 1 dollar loss per game I bet on. Guess what i found out, suddenly I was rooting my behind off for University of Bumfuc to beat Richkid State. So I'm shelling a dollar for a couple of hours of entertainment. Even trailer park trash can afford that. That is stage one and we all go through it some the hard way, but some the smart way.

Stage 2
OK, heres the hard way and the easy way to approach break even.  The hard way or maybe I should say the way with people with no life besides football is to watch a shitton of football. And by doing so you learn both through losing and through watching enough football to gain sufficient inside information to break even. Not me, I again did it the easy way. Out there is the internet and it is full of sports betting forums, free capers who share with anybody their picks and are held accountable, meaning records of their picks are kept so we know the real cappers from the liars and delusional fools. So I read the opinions of many good cappers, I weigh them with my own opinion and I make picks accordingly.

Stage 3
Money management and bankroll building.
Once you start winning a percentage that exceeds the vigorish, that is the percentage they charge when you make your initial bet, you can again do things the right way or the wrong way; The right way is to bet a fat chunk of your account, (we call it a bankroll) so much so that a normal losing streak wipes you out. The sharps with thousands of dollars spread through multiple books and investments can afford to limit themselves to a 2% maximum bet at any one time. Well realistically I don't have and you probably don't have a shitton of money, you want to bet enough to make the bet fun but you can't keep it down to 2% of your account balance and do that. So you keep it down to 3% of your account on small plays, 6% on medium plays, and 9% on large plays. When your account grows your bets do not, again, if you keep your bets at a high percentage of your bankroll sooner or later a losing streak wipes you out..That is just off the top of my head so expect there are some errors, I make my living as a writer, not a gambler, so take what I say with a grain of salt. If you are out of the USA you can sign up with a gambling exchange like matchbook which charges only 1% to place betters willing to take opposite sides of a bet. That is great because then you only have to be a 52% winner to build a bankroll. Thats my two cents, hope it helps.
holtnt PM holtnt
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Posted: 11/12/2013 4:27:55 PM
billbob PM billbob
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Posted: 11/12/2013 4:28:07 PM
Toledo 
GucciGucci PM GucciGucci
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Posted: 11/12/2013 4:32:58 PM
Public on Buffalo
Spread moving in Buffalo's favor
Toledo is undefeated at home

TOLEDO
veto22 PM veto22
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Posted: 11/12/2013 5:01:30 PM
Lordzud  what cappers what sites or do you just use cappers on covers?
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