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Author: [College Football] Topic: Oregon at Stanford (11/07/2013)
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#1
Posted: 11/3/2013 3:45:45 AM

Away:  Oregon [7-1 ATS]
Home:  Stanford [4-4 ATS]

Game Time: 9:00 PM
Stadium: Stanford Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/17/12 - STAN 17 vs. ORE 14
11/12/11 - ORE 53 vs. STAN 30
10/02/10 - STAN 31 vs. ORE 52

Team Leaders:

Oregon:
Passing: Marcus Mariota (2281)
Rushing: Byron Marshall (879)
Receiving: Josh Huff (703)

Stanford:
Passing: Kevin Hogan (1493)
Rushing: Tyler Gaffney (881)
Receiving: Ty Montgomery (619)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 11/3/2013 10:29:25 PM
anybody give the Cardinals any chance in this game?  I know it's at home, but man is Oregon good AND they have old lady revenge on their side too.  Just hope it's a good game....no clue on a play yet.  Love home dogs, but not sure 10,5 is enough.
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#3
Posted: 11/3/2013 10:56:32 PM
Ducks should cover 10. Can't see Stanford stopping them, or keeping up in a shoot out. 
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#4
Posted: 11/4/2013 3:30:33 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by mudpie:

anybody give the Cardinals any chance in this game?  I know it's at home, but man is Oregon good AND they have old lady revenge on their side too.  Just hope it's a good game....no clue on a play yet.  Love home dogs, but not sure 10,5 is enough.

The line +10 indicates that the game should be close.  The normal line for Oregon has been the 30s.  The UCLA line was 23 and the game was close in the 1st half.  The Stanford beat Oregon last year so they know they can beat them again.  They have the formula to beat Oregon.  It just comes down to execution.  Oregon has not played anyone and they did struggle with UCLA so they are beatable.  The Oregon system has not gotten out of the PAC 12. They have not won the national championship with this system and Kelly  
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#5
Posted: 11/4/2013 3:41:24 AM
And Kelly has not done anything in the NFL.  In fact the NFL is proving that this system is not all that.  Stanford has an excellent chance to win this game at home or at least keep this game close.  They have a very good defense and a power running game.  Oregon does not have a good defense and may not be able to get Stanford off the field. If the game was going to be a blow out the line would have been in the 30s. Also Stanford has 2 weeks to prepare for this which is an advantage for Stanford and not for Oregon. Oregon will do what they do because they think they can score on anyone. 
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#6
Posted: 11/4/2013 10:34:05 AM
Think Stanford has a chance at home but there is no way would I bet them though, they just don't have enough offense to keep it close.  Oregon will be slowed by the physical nature of Stanford's D but they will shut down The Tree on offense enough to give themselves a few short fields to work with.  I like Oregon enough to lay the points in this one.  I do think Stanford will hold the Ducks scoring down, and have trouble scoring much at all so an Under is something I will look at too.
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#7
Posted: 11/4/2013 11:09:41 AM
QUOTE
@searider1972

Your name should be dickrider.  You're a friggin idiot.  Line is 10 so it's close, because it would be 30 if was going to be a blowout?  Do you watch football?  Have you ever seen a 10-fav win by 40?  I have.  And I've seen a 20.5 point dog win SU.  And your analysis of Oregon is incorrect, to be polite.  Oregon's D is not good?  Oregon is ranked 27th in the country in Total Defense, Stanford is ranked 23rd.  And Oregon's D spends an avg of 34 minutes on the field, no other team defense in the top 30 spends more than 28 mins on the field.  That's elite my friend.  And both teams had the same exact amount of time to prepare, as they both played on Oct 26th.  No advantage there dickrider.  And you mentioned that the oregon system doesn't work outside Pac-12.  8 teams in the BCS Top 25 use hurry spreads with mobile QB's.  And last but not least idiotic is your comment about the NFL and Chip Kelly.  This is college football, in case you forgot.

Thank you for your lack of quality insight and incorrect analysis.  Good luck, dickrider.


Originally Posted by searider1972:


The line +10 indicates that the game should be close.  The normal line for Oregon has been the 30s.  The UCLA line was 23 and the game was close in the 1st half.  The Stanford beat Oregon last year so they know they can beat them again.  They have the formula to beat Oregon.  It just comes down to execution.  Oregon has not played anyone and they did struggle with UCLA so they are beatable.  The Oregon system has not gotten out of the PAC 12. They have not won the national championship with this system and Kelly  
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#8
Posted: 11/4/2013 11:20:26 AM
I like the Ducks by 14 or more.  No way this game is left on the leg of Maldonado again, not this year.  Oregon was playing to win last year, this year they will be playing to dominate.  Helfich knows he needs a 14 to 21 point lead in the second half to feel comfortable about closing it out without needing a defensive stand or a late field goal.  Oregon will cover this game by controlling line of scrimmage on offense, limiting big plays and TD's on defense, and with their elite speed all over.  I see a special teams play similar to the ORE/CAL game in 2010, when Cliff Harris ran one back to put oregon up for good, and squeak by CAL for their toughest win that year.  I think it's close until that play, then ORE pulls away in final frame for 45-30 victory.
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#9
Posted: 11/4/2013 1:56:24 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by SURFNTURF808:

Ducks should cover 10. Can't see Stanford stopping them, or keeping up in a shoot out. 

You Duckheads are hilarious. Stanford's D is strong like Bama's D. The Bama-Oregon line is -3 on a neutral field. Stanford at home playing on grass ! Big difference from Oregon's artificial turf. Don't be surprised if this ends up being a FG game.

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#10
Posted: 11/4/2013 2:04:24 PM
Stan offense is going downhill as the year goes on Hogan is not playing well with Cjuste questionable and possibly rusty if he plays.  They depend on there TE's and there play at best is inconsistent.  Stan will struggle to move the chains and chew clock.
ORE D is very good, no fluke shutting down a very good UCLA O .

Stan takes a big hit losing Gardener. Stan inability to control the clock and or tempo will leave the Ducks on the field too many times, and if the Ducks avoid turnovers they will win this by 20+
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#11
Posted: 11/4/2013 2:10:51 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by UHQB:

You Duckheads are hilarious. Stanford's D is strong like Bama's D. The Bama-Oregon line is -3 on a neutral field. Stanford at home playing on grass ! Big difference from Oregon's artificial turf. Don't be surprised if this ends up being a FG game.

Lets see the last 4x ORE scored 40 plus on Stan grass
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#12
Posted: 11/4/2013 2:42:09 PM
If this line hits Oregon -10 I'm gabbing it. At 10.5 now so I'm waiting.
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#13
Posted: 11/4/2013 7:35:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by FleshGordun:

Lets see the last 4x ORE scored 40 plus on Stan grass

@UHQB

ORE scored 53 in 2011 at The Farm with Darron Thomas at QB and a team that averaged over one yard less per play and over 100 less total yards per game than this current 2013 team.

And Stanford's D is nothing like Bama's.  Bama's D gave up 20 points total in October, 4.0 ppg.  Stanford gave up 77 points in October, 19.25 ppg.

Compare that to ORE's D, they gave up 93 points at 23.25 ppg in October.  All three teams played 4 games.

I'd say Stanford D is a lot like ORE's D, and Bama's D is on it's own level.  Save for the fact that Bama played Georgia State, Kentucky, Arkansas and Tennessee in October (9-26 combined record).

The only thing Stanford and Bama will have in common this season is that the Oregon Ducks beat them.





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#14
Posted: 11/5/2013 5:52:03 AM
This is oregons chance to prove why they are number 2 and belong ahead of Florida state they will be lookin to beat Stanford by as many points as possible to keep that number 2 spot to stay ahead of Florida state and make it to the championship game although this will be there toughest test of the year I think Oregon takes it 45-20...sure wish the 4 team playoff were in effect this year cuz we should have 4 undefeated teams worthy 5 if u include Ohio state...those 4 being bama Oregon fl st  and Baylor if they make it through the beef of the schedual all 5 are worthy but Ohio state schedual too weak if Oregon wins convincingly here they shud cruise through rest of there schedual  and crush asu in pac12championship game...fl st only good win was at Clemson who they crushed and Overrated Miami team who don't belong in top 15 as they beat no one in all close games and will probably play again for acc champ and blow out again and the rest there schedual should be a cake  including last game at floridia who they will Handel....when it comes down to it fl st sched just don't match up to Oregon long as Oregon convincingly beats Stanford and there coaches know it although if Baylor can blow out the rest Of there extremely tough schedual u gota give them so consideration ...it's too bad the playoff doesn't start this year  as I would love to see bama/fl st  and Oregon /Baylor play for  chance to play for rights to play for it all...sad we could have 5 undefeated  teams and only 2 have the chanse to play for it all...sucks for those other teams who had perfect seasons and be screwd because a messed up system with that said Oregon knows what's at stake and will get the style points they need @stan
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#15
Posted: 11/5/2013 9:35:37 PM
Did UHQB just say Stanford' s D was like Bama's???!!!!! Wtf!!! Stanford's defense is above average....I'll give them that but definitely nothing to rave about.  This is the same defense that had trouble stopping Army running the ball.  Yes "The Amy"!!  Let's not get carried away here!
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#16
Posted: 11/5/2013 9:45:47 PM
bama has had 1 good team play against them.  their schedule is a joke.  pac 10 much tougher this year.  lets see how they do against lsu wholl punch back.  oregon should blow stanford away. but theyll choke.  perhaps stanford can have some bs injury to slow it down .
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#17
Posted: 11/5/2013 11:12:08 PM
I don't think Bama's schedule is a joke.  They're so good the make really good teams seem average.  I don't think Oregon nor FSU would be undefeated with Bama's schedule.  That saying....I'm a big time Oregon fan.  Let's not down play the sec.  Let's stop and think before you write!! Sec....weak. Come on man......
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#18
Posted: 11/6/2013 12:18:23 AM

Last year was an aberation. Oregon covers the measily 10 and wins by 20.

Top 5
1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Baylor
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama

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#19
Posted: 11/6/2013 1:03:19 AM
ok here's bama's last six teams they played:
Tenn
Ark
(here's where it was tough)
Kentucky
georgia State
Miss (ok)
Colorado State (man that was brutal)
Texas AnM (only solid team).  That being said which team was tough?
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#20
Posted: 11/6/2013 7:02:41 AM
I think the line is accurate for the "theoretical" non covering Thursday night game with the oddsmaker wanting the public to salivate on Oregon but this Oregon team is playing together and is focused. Honestly when Kelly left I thought it would hurt the team to some degree, but this team hasn't even miss a beat. Back to the lines, when Oregon played at wash the line opened at -14 and slowly came down to about 12-11.5 by kickoff hence the accuracy on this line. The score was decent at the half and got ugly the 2nd half. The same scenario was played out against ucla, tied at the half I believe and 28-0 nothing run in the 2nd half to end in a 42-14 beat down. Stanford front 7 is good enough to stop the run early but not for 4 qts against Oregon. To me Oregon gets it done but I like the play of the under 1st half depending on what it is I'm thinking 33-35 pts. Stanford has had two weeks to prepare for this Oregon zone so I expect for them to come out strong for the 1st half defensively. Tempo will be the difference come 2nd half that will hurt Stanford as it has hurt the other top perennial teams in the conference against Oregon. The other downside to Stanford is their offense is very stagnant and hogan is very inconsistent with his accuracy. Oregon's weakness in my opinion is you have to be able to pass the football on them like Wash st did and Wash, you will not be able to consistently run on this team for 4qts. Oregon prides themselves on half time adjustments to the max on both sides of the ball. 

1st half Under
2nd half play on Oregon if it's pretty close at half
Final score 

Oregon 35
Stanford 13
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#21
Posted: 11/6/2013 8:45:08 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Maximus002:

I think the line is accurate for the "theoretical" non covering Thursday night game with the oddsmaker wanting the public to salivate on Oregon but this Oregon team is playing together and is focused. Honestly when Kelly left I thought it would hurt the team to some degree, but this team hasn't even miss a beat. Back to the lines, when Oregon played at wash the line opened at -14 and slowly came down to about 12-11.5 by kickoff hence the accuracy on this line. The score was decent at the half and got ugly the 2nd half. The same scenario was played out against ucla, tied at the half I believe and 28-0 nothing run in the 2nd half to end in a 42-14 beat down. Stanford front 7 is good enough to stop the run early but not for 4 qts against Oregon. To me Oregon gets it done but I like the play of the under 1st half depending on what it is I'm thinking 33-35 pts. Stanford has had two weeks to prepare for this Oregon zone so I expect for them to come out strong for the 1st half defensively. Tempo will be the difference come 2nd half that will hurt Stanford as it has hurt the other top perennial teams in the conference against Oregon. The other downside to Stanford is their offense is very stagnant and hogan is very inconsistent with his accuracy. Oregon's weakness in my opinion is you have to be able to pass the football on them like Wash st did and Wash, you will not be able to consistently run on this team for 4qts. Oregon prides themselves on half time adjustments to the max on both sides of the ball. 

1st half Under
2nd half play on Oregon if it's pretty close at half
Final score 

Oregon 35
Stanford 13

spot on.
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#22
Posted: 11/6/2013 9:55:12 AM

DE for Stan Gardner out-NFL caliber, another DE for Stanford battling injury, dont know how good that guy is but...without pressure Ore should be able to run wild. The total here is tough. Line says it should be 35-24 game maybe?? I hate unders Ill take my chances that this is ORE best team ever and that they actually have a decent NFL caliber QB not a bunch of running backs(deron,masoli,dickson ) playing qb or some soft QBs (harrington, clemens) ORE and OV for the large!!!!

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#23
Posted: 11/6/2013 10:20:54 AM
Oh yeah, Oregon -10 for the LAHHGE. Stanford has a fine defense but they aren't stopping Oregon. They might be able to hold the game close in the first half but Oregon is going to start popping big plays 2nd half and that'l be all she wrote. Stanford offense is distinctly unimpressive. Even if the Stanford D holds Oregon to under 30 points, it will be enough. The good DR's points about Stanford down one or two DE's that will be playing on Sundays next year is huge. Watch that Oregon QB, it isn't fair to to be that big, that fast, and that accurate chucking the ball. He should be the #1 draft pick this year and FSU's Winston #1 next year.
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#24
Posted: 11/6/2013 12:36:55 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MrBig10:

Last year was an aberation. Oregon covers the measily 10 and wins by 20.

Top 5
1. Oregon
2. Florida State
3. Baylor
4. Ohio State
5. Alabama


WHAT DRUG ARE YOU ON OR DRUGS....PLURAL???!!!!!!! I'm a Oregon fan but my gosh.  Baylor and Ohio st better than bama??!! Dear gosh!!!! FSU's schedule is terrible. Oregon's is a little better. Bama's is not great but they're are built like a damn nfl team and they do have Saban.  If you discount him you are definitely smoking something.  We're talking 5 star athletes after 5star athletes.  One leaves and another steps in.  What they're doing is remarkable.  Let's give credit where credit is do.  Not a lot of teams can match their physicality on both offense and defense.  Ask Notre Dame!!  I'm not even going to address Ohio st which is a joke!!
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#25
Posted: 11/6/2013 2:51:44 PM
@DrDogs

No chances taken with this being the best ORE team ever, it clearly is top to bottom.  Deepest team in the country, deepest team in ORE history as well.

However, you mentioned the last five QB's as being soft, weak, or under-skilled to play QB.  Three of those five QB's made it into NFL, two of which are still in the NFL.  Joey was a top 3 pick, and played for 9 seasons.  All of those quarterbacks won a bowl game, four of those QB's played in a BCS bowl game, and three of them won a BCS bowl game.

Let's use that as a tool for spotlighting just how great Mariota is, because he is the best COLLEGE quarterback the ducks have ever had.  We'll see how he does in NFL, but for now, if he's better than the previous five, the ducks have a shot at the title.  A serious shot.
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