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Author: [College Football] Topic: Marshall at Middle Tennessee (10/24/2013)
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#1
Posted: 10/20/2013 4:02:10 AM

Away:  Marshall [4-2 ATS]
Home:  Middle Tennessee [2-5 ATS]

Game Time: 7:30 PM
Stadium: Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium

Recent Meetings:
11/26/94 - MTU 14 vs. MRSH 49
12/05/92 - MTU 21 vs. MRSH 35

Team Leaders:

Marshall:
Passing: Rakeem Cato (1572)
Rushing: Essray Taliaferro (368)
Receiving: Tommy Shuler (456)

Middle Tennessee:
Passing: Logan Kilgore (1086)
Rushing: Jordan Parker (512)
Receiving: Tavarres Jefferson (320)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 10/22/2013 2:30:56 PM
Home sweet Home system.

Middle Tennessee +8.5
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#3
Posted: 10/22/2013 8:36:03 PM
I'm a believer of the Thursday Night HOMEDOGS... 
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#4
Posted: 10/23/2013 1:08:20 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinsNow999:

Home sweet Home system.

Middle Tennessee +8.5


WinsNow999,

I don’t know about the “Home sweet Home system,” but I do know Marshall doesn’t play enough defense to go on the road laying more than a field goal…  With that said, put me down for Middle Tennessee plus the chalk at the house for three (3) C-Notes please.  Thanks! 


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#5
Posted: 10/23/2013 11:35:54 AM
If I am reading the numbers right it looks like Marshall gives up less than 300 yards a game and against a team that has scored 17 or less in 4 games this year .. I think this one hits the Thursday night UNDER special 31-17 Marshall
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#6
Posted: 10/23/2013 11:35:57 AM
If I am reading the numbers right it looks like Marshall gives up less than 300 yards a game and against a team that has scored 17 or less in 4 games this year .. I think this one hits the Thursday night UNDER special 31-17 Marshall
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#7
Posted: 10/23/2013 2:42:00 PM
Marshall would be my bet, I do get scared playing rd favorites on thurs though. Will decide before gametime
Posted using a mobile device.
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#8
Posted: 10/23/2013 3:05:28 PM
i dont trust at all in MTU, would pick MARSHALL
but instead I'll go with the UNDER, kind of MARSHALL 28-17 MTU
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#9
Posted: 10/23/2013 5:35:17 PM

Both teams have ONE over this year. 

UNDER 56.5

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#10
Posted: 10/23/2013 6:32:33 PM
If both schools were on a short week schedule I would normally have action on the total going "Thursday Night" under, however, both schools have not played since 10/12, therefore my only action would be on the "Thursday Night" HOMEDOGS + the points and a good chance of getting closer to double digits by game time due to PUBLIC chalk action... But what do I know? 

RICO SUAVE
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#11
Posted: 10/23/2013 7:38:44 PM
I want to add some interesting stats between these 2 schools who played a common opponent this year versus Florida Atlantic University;

On 9/21 Middle Tennessee a 3 point chalk played @ FAU and won by 7 in OT 42-35, that night the Blue Raiders out rushed the Owls by 114 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per rush... 

On 10/12 Marshall a 10 point chalk played @ FAU and squeeked out a 1 point win 24-23, that night the Thundering Herds were out rushed by the Owls by 69 yards and the FAU Owls had control of the time of possession by 10 minutes (35:11 to 24:29)...  

RICO SUAVE
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#12
Posted: 10/23/2013 7:53:04 PM
Middle Tennesee to cover and under parlayed with carolina and under 
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#13
Posted: 10/23/2013 10:48:30 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mudhens726:

I want to add some interesting stats between these 2 schools who played a common opponent this year versus Florida Atlantic University;

On 9/21 Middle Tennessee a 3 point chalk played @ FAU and won by 7 in OT 42-35, that night the Blue Raiders out rushed the Owls by 114 yards and averaged 6.6 yards per rush... 

On 10/12 Marshall a 10 point chalk played @ FAU and squeeked out a 1 point win 24-23, that night the Thundering Herds were out rushed by the Owls by 69 yards and the FAU Owls had control of the time of possession by 10 minutes (35:11 to 24:29)...  

RICO SUAVE

what this really tells is that Marshall would be 7 pts better over MTSU when comparing those lines. With the game at MTSU that would give them an additional 3-4 pts making Marshall a 3.5 pt favorite. With the line currently at marshall -8 you are getting some line value in comparison. 

So odds makers think one or all of the following: 

1) FAU was worse that expected from the time they played MTSU to the time they played Marshall (not likely considering they played well between then)

2) Marshall is better than previously thought from the time of the MTSU v FAU game (likely considering they took Va tech to triple OT and killed UTSA)

3) MTSU is worse than previously thought from time of MTSU v FAU game (also likely considering they have lost 3 in a row and just got killed by UNT)

So MTSU and Marshall have gone in opposite directions in the vegas power ratings to the effect of ~4.5 pts. You can see the reasons why this happened when looking at previous results, but given Marshall's latest result of performing similarly to MTSU against FAU, you could argue that this actually isn't justifiable. 

Take all of that as you will. It definitely helps argue a MTSU pick, but in the end, playing just one common opponent isn't enough data IMO to really justify that. That would just be my way of thinking if I did think it was lol. 
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#14
Posted: 10/24/2013 2:01:40 AM
Why is Marshall giving more than a TD? Weird looking line. 
Marshall -8
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#15
Posted: 10/24/2013 10:44:48 AM
definitely leaning MTSU with the + points at home, seems to easy though.  Also like the UNDER.  East Carolina only put up 24 on them at home.  Marshall has played some pathetic schools this year resulting in some high point games (Miami Oh 0-7 and Gardner Webb). They played to a 24-23 at Florida ATL last game.  BYU put up 37 at home against MTSU.  This should go under 56.5 barring an OT F job. 
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#16
Posted: 10/24/2013 1:05:12 PM
-9.5 now no way marshall covers
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#17
Posted: 10/24/2013 2:32:55 PM
I got to see MTSU live two weeks ago in Denton vs. North Texas.  I'm telling you now, they're not very good.  I don't much at all about Marshall but I do know Middle Tennessee is pretty small and lacks any big play potential.  They had a hard time doing anything at all vs. North Texas and I don't see anything changing vs. a Marshall team who is 10th in nation in total D and 14th in scoring defense.  Marshall should win double digits tonight.
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#18
Posted: 10/24/2013 3:12:51 PM
ok heres your play for this game..theres alot of good and bad points about Marshall but they will cover that 8. take Marshall -8 and the under 57
GL and lets beat those books....
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#19
Posted: 10/24/2013 3:22:29 PM
This Marshall team has a ton of experience and outclasses MTSU in just about every meaningful category. The 9.5 does bother me. But I capped this one at 13 so I'll still back Marshall against a very underwhelming group of Blue Raiders.
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#20
Posted: 10/24/2013 3:23:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CMills14:

 They had a hard time doing anything at all vs. North Texas and I don't see anything changing vs. a Marshall team who is 10th in nation in total D and 14th in scoring defense.  Marshall should win double digits tonight.

Marshall Buyers Beware!!!

Marshall is a Jekyll & Hyde team when breaking them down at home vs. on the road. Here's what I found on Marshall's #10th ranked defense:
  • Marshall allows 151.6 more yards per game on the road than at home.
  • Marshall allows 20.7 more points per game on the road than at home.
Marshall's offense seems to have the same problems offensively on the road:
  • Marshall's offense gains 102 yards more at home than on the road.
  • Marshall also scores 21.7 points per game more at home than on the road. 
Let's not get it twisted Middle Tennessee is a bottom dwelling team ranking 107th on offense and 102nd defensively nationally. But what I do like about this Middle Tennessee team is their turnover margin. They've got 5 less turnovers than their opponent (Gotta find at least one bright spot!!!).

This line started the day at -8 and is now at -10. My book is offering 2% juice on Marshall and 8% juice n Middle Tennessee. These line moves and difference in juice tells me to put my money on Middle Tennessee at home and I'm going to do just that.

Middle Tennessee +10

GLTA
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#21
Posted: 10/24/2013 4:29:58 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by osu200200:


what this really tells is that Marshall would be 7 pts better over MTSU when comparing those lines. With the game at MTSU that would give them an additional 3-4 pts making Marshall a 3.5 pt favorite. With the line currently at marshall -8 you are getting some line value in comparison. 

So odds makers think one or all of the following: 

1) FAU was worse that expected from the time they played MTSU to the time they played Marshall (not likely considering they played well between then)

2) Marshall is better than previously thought from the time of the MTSU v FAU game (likely considering they took Va tech to triple OT and killed UTSA)

3) MTSU is worse than previously thought from time of MTSU v FAU game (also likely considering they have lost 3 in a row and just got killed by UNT)

So MTSU and Marshall have gone in opposite directions in the vegas power ratings to the effect of ~4.5 pts. You can see the reasons why this happened when looking at previous results, but given Marshall's latest result of performing similarly to MTSU against FAU, you could argue that this actually isn't justifiable. 

Take all of that as you will. It definitely helps argue a MTSU pick, but in the end, playing just one common opponent isn't enough data IMO to really justify that. That would just be my way of thinking if I did think it was lol. 

Hey osu,

      You are right with having played one common opponent doesn't mean that there is such a "HUGE" advantage, however, one is better than "NONE" specially if one team outplayed the common opponent better than the other... But what the hell do I really know?  Oh well best of luck to everybody... 

RICO SUAVE
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#22
Posted: 10/24/2013 6:29:44 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by CRNKN:

Middle Tennesee to cover and under parlayed with carolina and under 

exactly what i was thinkin my man i like it
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#23
Posted: 10/24/2013 6:49:18 PM
Marshall and Under.
Small degenerate bet. Its a vegas game time call for the winner. They got their finger in their fools as we speak and theyll pull it out when they agree at game time.
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#24
Posted: 10/24/2013 6:50:51 PM
Better of dropping $175/100 saying NO RUNS IN THE FIRST INNING MLB
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#25
Posted: 10/24/2013 7:25:51 PM
Middle Tennesee is not a very good football team. They are 3-4 SU,2-5 ATS and have been outgained in 6 out of 7 contests this year. The big mismatch is Marshall's rush offense against MTU's rush defense. This will be a matchup of two teams trying to run the ball and I believe The Hurd will be susessful. I don't believe MTU will score much. After a scare last week I believe Marshall plays well in this game. These 2 teams have went 3-10 under. UInder 56.5 for the Laaaag! Marshall-10 for the medium 
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