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Author: [College Football] Topic: Michigan at Penn State (10/12/2013)
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#1
Posted: 10/6/2013 5:48:33 AM

Away:  Michigan [3-2 ATS]
Home:  Penn State [2-3 ATS]

Game Time: 5:00 PM
Stadium: Beaver Stadium

Recent Meetings:
10/30/10 - MICH 31 vs. PSU 41
10/24/09 - PSU 35 vs. MICH 10
10/18/08 - MICH 17 vs. PSU 46

Team Leaders:

Michigan:
Passing: Devin Gardner (1036)
Rushing: Fitzgerald Toussaint (397)
Receiving: Jeremy Gallon (367)

Penn State:
Passing: Christian Hackenberg (1367)
Rushing: Zach Zwinak (369)
Receiving: Allen Robinson (621)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 10/7/2013 12:10:10 PM
No effin way should Penn St be 3 point dogs to Michigan. I don't give a crap where it is played or how loud the home crowd hollers Penn St is a Big 10 bottom feeder and Michigan is rated 18th in the nation. Bet of the week. Going large on Michigan-3.  Penn St has a good coach but they have been slammed rightfully by the NCAA for little boys in their shower room and have had a bunch of scholarships taken away. Indiana whipped em last week and a vastly superior Michigan should whip em this week. Gonna move the wrong way off that key 3 number so hit it fast!
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#3
Posted: 10/7/2013 6:21:06 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lordzud:

No effin way should Penn St be 3 point dogs to Michigan. I don't give a crap where it is played or how loud the home crowd hollers Penn St is a Big 10 bottom feeder and Michigan is rated 18th in the nation. Bet of the week. Going large on Michigan-3.  Penn St has a good coach but they have been slammed rightfully by the NCAA for little boys in their shower room and have had a bunch of scholarships taken away. Indiana whipped em last week and a vastly superior Michigan should whip em this week. Gonna move the wrong way off that key 3 number so hit it fast!

Yeah and Michigan just happen to be on their menstrual against Akron and Conn. Stay away from this one....
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#4
Posted: 10/8/2013 2:03:09 AM
Actually Michigan just happened to have four turnovers that lead to easy points against both Connecticut and Akron. And lets face it, if Michigan plays half assed like they did against those two lousy teams than they will lose against Penn ST. But this is a conference game and if the coach at Michigan can't get his players psyched up enough to play hard against Penn St he ought to be fired. While Michigan has gotten better Penn ST has gone the other way. Penn St has only 61 scholarships and they are really banged up. I'm betting the line is off because of Michigan's poor play in these two games. The closer you get to the present the better the prediction for the immediate future. Last week Penn St got beaten badly by Indiana while Michigan horse whipped Minnesota. Penn St is in exact same predicament as USC, under performing because scholarships were taken away from them. It really hurts a program especially as the season wears on and players get banged up or can't play at all.
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#5
Posted: 10/8/2013 7:44:26 PM

Agreed with the Lord.

Michigan (-2) at Penn St.? Michigan easily covers by 17. Are you kidding me -2?????? Penn State not good right now. Seems to good to be true so take the -2 and smile

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#6
Posted: 10/9/2013 1:17:42 PM
Line moved to -2 in Vegas, but still...........seriously???  I have been staring at this for two days trying to figure out why this line is only at 2.  I DO believe Michigan is overrated.  They are ranked 16th and the only impressive thing they have done all season is beat up on Notre Dame.  But then that's more than Penn State has managed to do.  Michigan has a 10.28 yard-per-point average and their defense allows an average of 305 yards per game.  The two defenses are comparable but Michigans offence is almost twice as efficient.  Three sets of my power rankings call for a 12 point Michigan win and I have to take a 10 point differential.
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#7
Posted: 10/9/2013 1:49:30 PM
I have been thinking about this game along the same lines as Armored Car for days now and have come up with the following conclusion. Vegas doesn't give a crap where the line should be, they aren't in the truth telling business, they are in the money making business. All they care about is getting 50% of the bettors on each side of the bet because they rake in 5%(actually 10% on all the losing bets) no matter what happens. Lots of people don't understand this and launch into strange ramblings about trap lines ect ect. If you own a cash cow you don't poke it with a sharp stick to increase your profits, hell no. Idiot books like Bovada try to increase their profits by offering bad lines and slow pay outs, they are just stupid and greedy. Maybe they are increasing their weekly profits but they are driving away their customers in the long run. Back to the Michigan game.

Michigan has a sub par QB and Penn St has a pretty good freshman QB and they have been solid against the run so far. There are legitimate reasons for people to like Penn St, but as I have stated earlier Michigan is clearly superior in its past performance against good competition and with it's superior recruits, I like my chances.
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#8
Posted: 10/9/2013 2:40:20 PM
That's funny how you honestly think Vegas wants to get 50% on each side. They want 100% on the losing side and then a sliding scale down from there. If you honestly think they are going to get 50% action with -1.5 on UM, you are crazy. They are looking to trap a ton of people and they have a good feeling for Penn St unless some outrageous "smart" money has come in already, which is doubtful.

The pool I run has this game on it. I put the game at UM -5.5. Right now the pics are running 83% on Michigan. I'll update this as the week goes on.
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#9
Posted: 10/9/2013 9:33:26 PM
Well that settles it. A bunch of guys in Nebraska just love the Michigan play and that means there is a massive conspiracy among all the books because 5% profit a week on a multi billion dollar a week business just isn't enough. There are smart books out there, Pinnacle is one of them, that will tweak some games to attract more action, because they know better what the line should be than the betting public. But for the most part books are making so much money that all they are concerned with is increasing market share  running an incredibly lucrative business, and staying on the right side of the law. Someone awhile ago threw out a comment that I found to be very true. Never blame on a conspiracy what could just as easily be attributed to stupidity. "Lookout! It's a trap!" Sure it is, but you don't have to fall in it because you are already in it. We all are.
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#10
Posted: 10/9/2013 9:43:45 PM

Penn State lost to Indiana last week in their first road game with
a stud freshman QB. Penn State has one running back and one receiver. The running back could not run on Indiana -yikes.  And no, Penn State did not overlook Indiana -they knew the Hooisers could sling it around the field.

-Michigan has way more defensive talent than Indiana.
-Indiana's has a better offense than Michigan.

After the eye test and looking at all the angles, I still don't see
how Michigan is -2, not even a field goal. No love for Big Blue?

I still believe Michigan will win by around 17.

Big 10: Indiana, Purdue, Ohio St., Michigan, Michigan St., Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Northwestern, Wisconsin.

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#11
Posted: 10/9/2013 11:24:42 PM
Zud, the bottom line as I see it is the public is going to be heavy on Michigan with this line. Vegas knows that and Vegas isn't in the habit of giving money away. Could they be wrong? Of course, and they may take a bath but something is up and they are willing to throw 50/50 out the window in order to rake it in large.

And how many games actually go off with half the money on either side? Very, very few. If it was such a huge deal to the books, they would be adjusting the lines a whole lot more than they do. To your point, would they be happy going 50/50 every week and just taking the vig? Sure. But they really are looking for around 55/45 and that is a huge swing over the long haul so lines like this are going to happen when they think they have the edge against what the public perceives.

Sure, my sample size is small and they aren't a bunch of sharps. 183 entries in the thing. Covers is running 74/26 on this game at the -2 range. My point was to show that even at -5.5, people will go for Michigan so why doesn't Vegas have a higher line if they think PSU is the play? Give themselves some insurance and keep it at a key number like -3.5. Just saying it sounds fishy.

My two cents. Good Luck with your picks this weekend.
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#12
Posted: 10/10/2013 12:37:33 PM
Mich. wins and covers
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#13
Posted: 10/10/2013 1:35:50 PM
It has been my experience that Vegas books operate on epistemic probability, which is a type of bayesian statistic.  Epistemic probability simply are degrees of rational belief.  I agree:  the books don't care what the line should be, they focus on what people believe is the most probable outcome and set their lines by that.  In this case, A LOT of people lost A LOT of money on Michigan against Akron & UCONN, therefore the belief is Michigan is underperforming.  People will be hesitant to pull the trigger on Michigan again so to make the game more enticing to betters they slapped a low spread on it.  For those who still have a bad taste in their mouth from the past few Michigan losses (ATS) they may take 2 points and go Penn State. 
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#14
Posted: 10/10/2013 2:18:01 PM
Judging the blowout Penn st was given by a "Indiana Hoosier football team".......

Michigan
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#15
Posted: 10/10/2013 5:44:28 PM
good luck john obvious. we can disagree on points but respect each other . good luck, especially on this bet, we are on the same side 
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#16
Posted: 10/11/2013 8:55:58 AM
Vegas doesn't give gifts.  
Doesn't really matter what two teams are playing, if 75-80% of the action is on the favorite side and the line is going DOWN, there's something off here.

PSU - Vegas doesn't give gifts.
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#17
Posted: 10/11/2013 11:56:13 AM
Dr Bob is on Penn ST. He is probably the most influential guy out there in moving the line. He was hot a couple years ago but not any more, but still his opinion is very influential. I don't give a crap what he thinks. People refer to Vegas as if it is this shadow organization that manipulates the rest of us. In fact books are scattered all over the world now and to say Vegas controls gambling is like saying Detroit makes all the cars. The opening line indeed comes from the stereotype we have of Vegas, a small group of gambling geniuses in Vegas. But after that the lines moves from the incredibly complex input of large and small bettors from all over the world. You would be amazed how much money comes in from China, 1.3 billion people with a lot of disable income and a long history of loving gambling. Good luck everybody. Slam those greedy books.
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#18
Posted: 10/11/2013 12:39:10 PM
I like the Penn ST SU win here. Michigan can't play on the road!!
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#19
Posted: 10/11/2013 3:01:08 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Armored_Car:

It has been my experience that Vegas books operate on epistemic probability, which is a type of bayesian statistic.  Epistemic probability simply are degrees of rational belief.  I agree:  the books don't care what the line should be, they focus on what people believe is the most probable outcome and set their lines by that.  In this case, A LOT of people lost A LOT of money on Michigan against Akron & UCONN, therefore the belief is Michigan is underperforming.  People will be hesitant to pull the trigger on Michigan again so to make the game more enticing to betters they slapped a low spread on it.  For those who still have a bad taste in their mouth from the past few Michigan losses (ATS) they may take 2 points and go Penn State. 

Right on the money.  I have long held the believe that there are some games Vegas want you to pass on or want you to see something thats not there.  Zuds correct the talent difference is great PSU (long time fan) doesnt have the defense to deal with a MICH 3 headed monster. Forget those other games MICH shows up to play.

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#20
Posted: 10/11/2013 3:28:47 PM
just to further the confusion .... its PSU HOMECOMING!! I'll be there. If PSU starts gaining momentum I'll streak and swing things back Michigans way. GO BLUE
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#21
Posted: 10/11/2013 7:37:35 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by johnobvious:

That's funny how you honestly think Vegas wants to get 50% on each side. They want 100% on the losing side and then a sliding scale down from there. If you honestly think they are going to get 50% action with -1.5 on UM, you are crazy. They are looking to trap a ton of people and they have a good feeling for Penn St unless some outrageous "smart" money has come in already, which is doubtful.

The pool I run has this game on it. I put the game at UM -5.5. Right now the pics are running 83% on Michigan. I'll update this as the week goes on.

bingo
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#22
Posted: 10/11/2013 7:38:15 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by lordzud:

I have been thinking about this game along the same lines as Armored Car for days now and have come up with the following conclusion. Vegas doesn't give a crap where the line should be, they aren't in the truth telling business, they are in the money making business. All they care about is getting 50% of the bettors on each side of the bet because they rake in 5%(actually 10% on all the losing bets) no matter what happens. Lots of people don't understand this and launch into strange ramblings about trap lines ect ect. If you own a cash cow you don't poke it with a sharp stick to increase your profits, hell no. Idiot books like Bovada try to increase their profits by offering bad lines and slow pay outs, they are just stupid and greedy. Maybe they are increasing their weekly profits but they are driving away their customers in the long run. Back to the Michigan game.

Michigan has a sub par QB and Penn St has a pretty good freshman QB and they have been solid against the run so far. There are legitimate reasons for people to like Penn St, but as I have stated earlier Michigan is clearly superior in its past performance against good competition and with it's superior recruits, I like my chances.
If you are a sharp bettor, you will like the lines at Bovada. You won't like them if you mostly bet favorites. I was on Indiana last week. It looks like could be on PSU this week. Also out of interest, PSU has won the last 3 in a row vs UM by an average score of 41-19.
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#23
Posted: 10/11/2013 10:49:29 PM
 Look this one is easy.. Michigan 5-0 (they blow on the road & Penn St coming off a embarrassing loss to IU) , Michigan has beat no bodies, road game in Big 10, & PSU loves to beat MICHIGAN at home... Penn St. ( +2 )   PSU wins game 27-22
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#24
Posted: 10/11/2013 10:51:24 PM
90% expert picks for mich equals time to get a haircut. FADING Mich and takin PSU +2.5.
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#25
Posted: 10/11/2013 11:56:12 PM
Michigan is the biggest joke in college football. They keep winning but haven't moved up in the rankings. Everyone knows they aren't good. Akron, UConn. Really? Penn State wins this game by double figures guaranteed!
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