Clemson at North Carolina State (09/19/2013)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Clemson at North Carolina State (09/19/2013)
bigdaddyhpd PM bigdaddyhpd
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Posted: 9/18/2013 5:58:44 PM

Tough game for me to call personally. Clemson sounds like the easy pick here with NC State barely beating Richmond. NC State is 2-0 but has yet to play a high caliber team until they meet Clemson on Thursday.

Clemson seems solid on both sides of the ball while NC State is struggling at the QB position and lacks a solid running game.

I like Clemson here but I might just stay away.

holtnt PM holtnt
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Posted: 9/18/2013 6:44:59 PM

This looks too easy‚Ķ 

p-99 PM p-99
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Posted: 9/18/2013 8:12:59 PM
This is not a game for the fainthearted to watch as it will be determined at the end of 4th qtr, just like last year! 

NC St had covered all last three meetings and I expect them to do the same this year.

GLTA
vue21849 PM vue21849
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Posted: 9/18/2013 9:44:21 PM

NORTH CAROLINA STATE   +14

Assassinator PM Assassinator
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Posted: 9/19/2013 12:05:52 AM
My nutts itches!!!  That means I'm staying away from the public.  Don't want them to catch what I have (money). I'm picking NCST 
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 9/19/2013 12:27:54 AM

combato bro - i gotta respectfully disagree with you

this is not your normal choke oriented clemson team...they seem legit this year...this is potentially a heisman showcase for Boyd...NC State's glennon loss is big.   if this were in october and Clemson were coming off a big win, then of course, what does clemson do...we all know, we have all been burned by the person...of course there is the risk they will do it again....

i just don't think they will choke...national tv, thursday night featured showcase coming off a bye...ranked 3rd in the AP..they have a chance to have a special season...they are not going to blow it on nc state...

Clemson 42

NC State 14

 

Mr-Stache PM Mr-Stache
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Posted: 9/19/2013 1:29:06 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Assassinator:

My nutts itches!!!  That means I'm staying away from the public.  Don't want them to catch what I have (money). I'm picking NCST 

Nothing worse then confused "betting public" 
kevin1462003 PM kevin1462003
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Posted: 9/19/2013 1:54:45 AM
Clemson 
Mr-Stache PM Mr-Stache
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Posted: 9/19/2013 1:58:32 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by p-99:

This is not a game for the fainthearted to watch as it will be determined at the end of 4th qtr, just like last year! 

NC St had covered all last three meetings and I expect them to do the same this year.

GLTA

What does the last 3 years have to do with tomorrow? Clemson has only gotten better in the 3 years, NCState has gotten worse. Big play Glennon is gone. They put 62 on them last year. 

U wont bet NC State!! U just like to talk about it. U know betting NC State would be bad decision. 
p-99 PM p-99
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Posted: 9/19/2013 4:24:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Mr-Stache:


What does the last 3 years have to do with tomorrow? Clemson has only gotten better in the 3 years, NCState has gotten worse. Big play Glennon is gone. They put 62 on them last year. 

U wont bet NC State!! U just like to talk about it. U know betting NC State would be bad decision. 


Exactly correct, Clemson has gotten better than last year but the line is only -13.5 (last year -15) !
Why do you think it's that low...? Do you think the house is going to lose money?
I bet every games I posted...and more!
Blacklucer PM Blacklucer
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Posted: 9/19/2013 6:48:25 AM
I guess nobody remembers this game two years ago when clemson was a top ten. Nc state buy the pt to 14.5
combato PM combato
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combato
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Posted: 9/19/2013 6:57:17 AM
O
combato PM combato
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combato
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Posted: 9/19/2013 7:02:57 AM
QUOTE

Hi LH - always respect your opinion and cant argue with your results either.

The NCS spot is a 55% edge based on my own records which is not a huge edge at all - I look for as many of these spots as I can find every week and  bet them.  One will make money over the long run betting games like this but over one game, anything can happen including a Clemson blow out.

It is like being the house at the roulette table instead of the players by betting NC St. 

 

Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

combato bro - i gotta respectfully disagree with you

this is not your normal choke oriented clemson team...they seem legit this year...this is potentially a heisman showcase for Boyd...NC State's glennon loss is big.   if this were in october and Clemson were coming off a big win, then of course, what does clemson do...we all know, we have all been burned by the person...of course there is the risk they will do it again....

i just don't think they will choke...national tv, thursday night featured showcase coming off a bye...ranked 3rd in the AP..they have a chance to have a special season...they are not going to blow it on nc state...

Clemson 42

NC State 14

 

combato PM combato
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Posted: 9/19/2013 7:41:38 AM
QUOTE

Agree - one cannot make money by simply fading the public which is a 50% positive EV ( long run loser for those who don' know what that means)

The trick is knowing which subsets of public games are the best to fade .

Fading some subsets of public games are positive EV in the long run - the trick is knowing which ones.  

 

 

Originally Posted by Mr-Stache:


Nothing worse then confused "betting public" 
combato PM combato
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Posted: 9/19/2013 8:33:57 AM

Speaking of the public betting, check out these numbers.  These are the betting pct at the "squarest" of the offshore books.

1.  Sportsbook - 89% Clemson

2.  Carib - 82% Clemson

3.  SIA - 90% Clemson

4.  CRIS -89% Clemson

Public is on Clemson.  Public loses these types of games about 55% of the time  Public wins these games 45% of the time.

Clemson may win and cover - they have a 45% chance of doing so.  But not with my money

DrDogs PM DrDogs
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Posted: 9/19/2013 10:51:15 AM

Goin against public etc may be smart but I aint putting my dollahs with a busted broke down nc state joint. They dont have nfl qb anymore. The hard part will be if State can score. Clem and OV for the large!!!!

HALLIE88 PM HALLIE88
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Posted: 9/19/2013 11:16:19 AM
playing Clemson -7 first half
Potinmylungs PM Potinmylungs
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Posted: 9/19/2013 12:08:43 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

Public is on Clemson.  Public loses these types of games about 55% of the time  Public wins these games 45% of the time.

Clemson may win and cover - they have a 45% chance of doing so.  But not with my money


The 5% deviation from 50% is what's swaying you when a team that has looked solid is facing a young team that barely won against an FCS team last week? Not to mention, Boyd lit up NCST last year for 8 TDs. 

I'll put my money on Clemson. 
Potinmylungs PM Potinmylungs
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Posted: 9/19/2013 12:14:10 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Blacklucer:

I guess nobody remembers this game two years ago when clemson was a top ten. Nc state buy the pt to 14.5

How does that game have any bearing on a team that is two years removed? 
Buddhabud PM Buddhabud
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Posted: 9/19/2013 12:18:40 PM
I watch what Clemson did to GA.NC.ST. beats Richmond 23-21.No way they hang with the Tigers
Mr-Stache PM Mr-Stache
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Posted: 9/19/2013 1:21:42 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by p-99:



Exactly correct, Clemson has gotten better than last year but the line is only -13.5 (last year -15) !
Why do you think it's that low...? Do you think the house is going to lose money?
I bet every games I posted...and more!

Do u think the "HOUSE" is going to be out there on defense when Clemson is already up 21 with the ball jamming it down NC States Throat late in the 3rd Quarter?? Its only 13.5 cause they are on the road opposed to being home last year. Its so low cause people "betting public"   dont know how compare talent year in and year out. All the "betting public" does is look at years past and say NC State covered the last 3, or consensus has 85% on Clemson "sounds fishy."  And if NC State does cover... Its not cause of the house. Its becasue its a football game where there is 11 players on one side, and 11 on the other side, and have plays, and the players are all between 18-22 years old. U should watch it sometimes!!  
sjon412 PM sjon412
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Posted: 9/19/2013 3:31:08 PM
National spotlight on Thaj and the tigers tonight. Clemson will be ready to go. They roll into a hostel environment and silence the crowd with a quick score. I know it seems too easy and I know initial thought is fade the public but Clemson is just bigger faster stronger and better than NCST
kaleb01 PM kaleb01
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Posted: 9/19/2013 4:53:52 PM
Clemson for the win.
ScarletHokie PM ScarletHokie
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Posted: 9/19/2013 5:29:46 PM
Take the Under - you will be glad you did.
combato PM combato
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combato
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Posted: 9/19/2013 5:36:09 PM
QUOTE

Stache -  you talk pretty big but you do have decent logic at times. 

I am not here to argue with you - I like to hear all points of view/

But until you have been around here long enough to establish  some credibility, I will take everything you say as I would with any rookie capper. 

After I see you play at least 100 games and you have at least a 55% win, pct then I might consider what you say as credible.  Until then, you are just another square amateur poster in my opinion.

 

 

Originally Posted by Mr-Stache:


Do u think the "HOUSE" is going to be out there on defense when Clemson is already up 21 with the ball jamming it down NC States Throat late in the 3rd Quarter?? Its only 13.5 cause they are on the road opposed to being home last year. Its so low cause people "betting public"   dont know how compare talent year in and year out. All the "betting public" does is look at years past and say NC State covered the last 3, or consensus has 85% on Clemson "sounds fishy."  And if NC State does cover... Its not cause of the house. Its becasue its a football game where there is 11 players on one side, and 11 on the other side, and have plays, and the players are all between 18-22 years old. U should watch it sometimes!!  
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