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Author: [College Football] Topic: Texas at Brigham Young (09/07/2013)
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#1
Posted: 9/3/2013 12:37:53 AM

Away:  Texas [1-0 ATS]
Home:  Brigham Young [0-1 ATS]

Game Time: 7:00 PM
Stadium: Lavell Edwards Stadium

Recent Meetings:
09/10/11 - BYU 16 vs. TEX 17
09/08/88 - TEX 6 vs. BYU 47
09/12/87 - BYU 22 vs. TEX 17

Team Leaders:

Texas:
Passing: David Ash (343)
Rushing: Jalen Overstreet (92)
Receiving: Malcolm Brown (109)

Brigham Young:
Passing: Taysom Hill (175)
Rushing: Jamaal Williams (144)
Receiving: Ross Apo (59)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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#2
Posted: 9/3/2013 2:22:34 AM
Mr. Stache here for your week 2 play

Its week 2 and Texas travels to BYU for a great matchup. Only problem is that this isnt the same BYU team from last year. Several weapons are lost from last year for BYU. Yes Van Noy is still there and the running backs and the receivers are mostly intact. The defense is nowhere close to last year. The loss of Ziggy Ansah is huge. The secondary also took a hit. Maybe one of the biggest weapons from last year was the punter Riley Stephenson who averaged 45.4 yards a punt. Also BYU has a horrible FG kicking game. The longest FG that Sorensen has made in last two year was 36 yards. That alone could be the difference maker in this game. The offense will struggle once again this year. Taysom Hill can run but he is not deep passing threat. He averaged 5.99 yards per attempt in his 71 attempts in 2012. Week 1 against Virginia not much better 6.35. 

How will they keep up with Texas who is better on both sides of the ball in 2013. With 9 starters back on defense they will be improved, not saying they were great last year. Just saying that they should put the clamps down on a horrible BYU offense. 10 starters return on offense with David Ash having the QB position all to himself. The offense has too many weapons. Last years BYU didnt even face an offense with this many playmakers. The closest team being Oregon State last year which smashed that great D with 450 total yards 332 thru the air with only converting 2-11 on 3rd down conversions. Oregon State won 42-24. How will they stop the Texas offense???? They wont!!!

Texas -7

Final Score: Texas 37  BYU 16

Mr. Stache 2-0 on the year 

Game Log: 2013

8/27 Ole Miss -3
8/31 Northwestern -6

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Follow the Stache and Stack that CASH!!!!

Also BYU is a notorious 2nd half team at home. So if u want to double up feel free to take Texas 1st half and game.
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#3
Posted: 9/3/2013 9:06:25 PM

Covers Contest NCAA Football 2013 -  7 wins 3 losses in Week 1

BYU +7.5 vs Texas is the most interesting match up this week IMO

Early money poured in on Texas and drove the opening line from -4.5 to -7.5 on UT.  Is this is a wise guy move?  I don't think so.  Texas is a very public team and anytime I see big moves on big public teams, I tend to discount the action as square (not sharp). 

The point spread consensus on Texas is nearly 80% with very heavy early volume which also makes me think the early action is square,   I will be looking for other indicators to see if BYU +7.5 is a play.  BYU looks like a very good value play now IF one can get the 1/2 point hook.

Later action this week will determine whether I pull the trigger but so far, the lean is to BYU +7.5

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#4
Posted: 9/3/2013 9:46:00 PM
BYU is not the team they were last year. Defense is returning 4 starters, plus CB Johnson went out for the year. Plus losing Ansah was huge. They have a horrible kicking game. Longest FG for Sorensen is 36 in his career. Lost a great punter too. They have no rhythm on offense. Trying to run a hurry up offense this year. QB Hill isnt a deep passing threat. The do play better at home, but Texas is too strong this year. 

Dont over think it
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#5
Posted: 9/3/2013 10:15:30 PM

Hello Mr. Stache.

I know you probably don't agree with me but check this out and let me know what you think at your convenience.  You are clearly very knowledgable about the fundamentals of the game.  I rely more on technical analysis.  Please see below.

Everything you and I say or think has already been factored into the line to some degree, or at least that has been my experience.  Because of this, I rely on the lack of sophistication of the average bettor and the intelligence of the sharp players to guide my selections. 

In other words, I try to "read" the market using proprietary websites that track betting percentages, different sports books, money lines vs point spreads and line moves at multiple books in Vegas and offshore.  I have developed my analyses by watching certain things that occur on a regular basis that lead to a win pct of about 55% per year in CFB,

You can imagine the skepticism that I encounter from traditional handicappers from this approach.  I do lose what appear to be ridiculous plays at times but I also win a lot of those apparently ridiculous plays as well.

If you have a blog like I do, I will send you a PM and we can check out what each of have to say in more detail.

Thanks   Combato

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#6
Posted: 9/3/2013 10:49:39 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by combato]

Hello Mr. Stache.

I know you probably don't agree with me but check this out and let me know what you think at your convenience.  You are clearly very knowledgable about the fundamentals of the game.  I rely more on technical analysis.  Please see below.

Everything you and I say or think has already been factored into the line to some degree, or at least that has been my experience.  Because of this, I rely on the lack of sophistication of the average bettor and the intelligence of the sharp players to guide my selections. 

In other words, I try to "read" the market using proprietary websites that track betting percentages, different sports books, money lines vs point spreads and line moves at multiple books in Vegas and offshore.  I have developed my analyses by watching certain things that occur on a regular basis that lead to a win pct of about 55% per year in CFB,

You can imagine the skepticism that I encounter from traditional handicappers from this approach.  I do lose what appear to be ridiculous plays at times but I also win a lot of those apparently ridiculous plays as well.

If you have a blog like I do, I will send you a PM and we can check out what each of have to say in more detail.

Thanks   Combato

Let me ask u this first? What do u like about BYU this year? Or should I say what part of the game do u think BYU will expose Texas on. Offense, Defense, Special Teams? 
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#7
Posted: 9/3/2013 11:32:31 PM

combat... ur logic is completely based on the assumption that no smart money is on texas and only public dummies are betting the bigger named team.

1) people aren't that dumb

2) Monday/Tuesday betting aren't generally days where the public pours in money on football

 

I remember a few yrs ago when a really good byu team faced an ok florida state team at the beginning of the year and the sharp money went all over florida st. why? better athletes at bigger schools. this game is in provo and is a scary game for the horns, but I see them winning this by about 11 pts. they aren't spectacular in any particular area, but team size, speed, and depth will overcome the cougars.

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#8
Posted: 9/4/2013 5:05:21 AM
Texas is better across the board at every position.. They looked a bit sluggish against NMSU, but once their offense got clicking, they rolled off a bunch of TDs in a row.. I think they'll win by 10-14
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#9
Posted: 9/4/2013 6:14:06 AM

I agree with you that there is an "either/or" assumption of square vs smart.  However, I believe there are subtle ways to discern when there is an imbalance of square vs sharp money.

I have not decided yet to play BYU but I think it appears at this point to be mostly square money.  Square don't lose every game, sharps don't win every game.  But over time, one can win more than one loses by paying attention to this.

We could also be looking at the classic overreaction to the most recent performance.  Before the Virginia game, everyone was on board with BYU.  Now, everyone is off BYU.  The pendulum swings and so does the value on the team with the worst  recent performance.

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#10
Posted: 9/4/2013 6:19:12 AM

Oahu - excellent point about early week money flow not being square money.  I totally agree with you on this and is one of the reasons I have not pulled the trigger on BYU.

Early money can be sharp many many times - this game is the number 3 in number of bets, not volume of money wagered.  This is why I think it is most likely square.  But you are dead on about what typically happens but this game does not look typical to me.

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#11
Posted: 9/4/2013 1:46:00 PM
Grabbed Texas for 7 before the line climbs higher. A talent mismatch at virtually every position. Texas has its QB back and they scored a ton last year against teams the quality of BYU. Hill the BYU QB looks awful, in his first start he completed 13 of 40 passes. How will he do against a vastly superior Texas team? I'll definitely hit the under for BYU in the points department when it becomes available later in the week. That may very well be my biggest play this week. Texas hasn't been playing up to its talent level the last few years and I'm glad to get this line at 7. I appreciate the thoughtful comments of combat regarding sharp vrs square money, it is an important variable to consider but in my opinion this line is too low. Considering team talent and the crucial QB position this should a blowout. But of course nothing is certain, its college kids and sometimes the home team plays over its head.   
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#12
Posted: 9/4/2013 1:54:59 PM
QUOTE

Lordzud and Oahu all make good points from a fundamental standpoint. 

 I just checked and 92% of all the parlay/exotic action ( ie sucker/square money) is on Texas.  I will never back as side that John Q Square loves this much because it is a losing prop in the long run.

The question for me is this - BYU or pass?  Still waiting to see what happens with the betting on this game.  And I would definitely not go below +7 ( a key number).

 

 

Originally Posted by lordzud:

Grabbed Texas for 7 before the line climbs higher. A talent mismatch at virtually every position. Texas has its QB back and they scored a ton last year against teams the quality of BYU. Hill the BYU QB looks awful, in his first start he completed 13 of 40 passes. How will he do against a vastly superior Texas team? I'll definitely hit the under for BYU in the points department when it becomes available later in the week. That may very well be my biggest play this week. Texas hasn't been playing up to its talent level the last few years and I'm glad to get this line at 7. I appreciate the thoughtful comments of combat regarding sharp vrs square money, it is an important variable to consider but in my opinion this line is too low. Considering team talent and the crucial QB position this should a blowout. But of course nothing is certain, its college kids and sometimes the home team plays over its head.   

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#13
Posted: 9/4/2013 4:58:40 PM
1) I'm the one who made that pt, not Oahu lol

2) u can't always go against public. Yes public is 93%, but spread has also jumped 2.5 pts in response.
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#14
Posted: 9/5/2013 2:55:43 AM
If the line moved down with everyone on BYU, then yes, I'd be wary.. But it's moving with the flow of money, so I'm not scared that much..

I was actually on Virginia last week, so take that for what it's worth..

And yes, it was osu with those comments, not me.. Haha, thanks I guess though..
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#15
Posted: 9/5/2013 11:02:47 AM

BYU lost too much for me to have confidence in them, and they lost to a weak Va team last week.  I like Texas to cover this line, although the altitude problem concerns me a little...just no way to prepare for that in less than 3 days.  Still, talent edge to Texas who really needs to step it up in these games before hitting the conference when they will face comparable athletes.  Brown's seat is warm and will get hot if he loses to a BYU.  I expect a strong effort from a focused Longhorn team this week but still don't see them as a Top 15 team.

Texas by 13+     Medium play

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#16
Posted: 9/5/2013 1:37:54 PM

I expected this line to open 10 plus   BYU seems to have very little going on despite the slow start against one of the worst teams in football... something funny about this line and game

better plays out there ORE covers

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#17
Posted: 9/5/2013 8:32:07 PM

TEXAS  - 7

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#18
Posted: 9/5/2013 10:12:12 PM
um ...what ? oh um ....wow ...um  oic  sum of it all ..byu sucks and texas is a bit better than average ...under and longhorns -7 small  parlay 
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#19
Posted: 9/5/2013 11:22:58 PM
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#20
Posted: 9/5/2013 11:56:51 PM
Texas -7 looks great...teasing them down to 0 looks even better 
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#21
Posted: 9/6/2013 7:32:32 AM
QUOTE

I like nothing about BYU -  everything important is priced into the line in my opinion.   I said earlier, I have not decided whether to bet this game.  I am only pointing out possible counter arguments to why UT is not as strong a play as many think.

I could argue that situation for BYU is ideal - BYU team with tradition embarrassed on the road last week against a mediocre team.   Public was all over BYU last week - and this week everyone hates them.  Classic public pendulum overreaction swing.

Possible look ahead last week to Texas by BYU. 4th quarter high altitude game could be a UT problem if game is close.   Texas was TIED with NMSU at half - worst team in the US and they were tied at half ???  Mack Brown is good for blow out wins against weak opposition.  You think UT might be overconfident after seeing the BYU film last week?  Why did BetOnline open the game at -4.5???

I don't consider myself a match up capper.  I can read the same reports as everybody else.  Unless a capper is personally connected to one of the teams, most cappers will be led to identical  conclusions which is one reason the Universe is on UT.  Check out the nonsense that passes for sport journalism on ESPN.  High paid cheerleaders wearing suits and ties.

 

 

Originally Posted by Mr-Stache:

Originally Posted by combato]

Hello Mr. Stache.

I know you probably don't agree with me but check this out and let me know what you think at your convenience.  You are clearly very knowledgable about the fundamentals of the game.  I rely more on technical analysis.  Please see below.

Everything you and I say or think has already been factored into the line to some degree, or at least that has been my experience.  Because of this, I rely on the lack of sophistication of the average bettor and the intelligence of the sharp players to guide my selections. 

In other words, I try to "read" the market using proprietary websites that track betting percentages, different sports books, money lines vs point spreads and line moves at multiple books in Vegas and offshore.  I have developed my analyses by watching certain things that occur on a regular basis that lead to a win pct of about 55% per year in CFB,

You can imagine the skepticism that I encounter from traditional handicappers from this approach.  I do lose what appear to be ridiculous plays at times but I also win a lot of those apparently ridiculous plays as well.

If you have a blog like I do, I will send you a PM and we can check out what each of have to say in more detail.

Thanks   Combato

Let me ask u this first? What do u like about BYU this year? Or should I say what part of the game do u think BYU will expose Texas on. Offense, Defense, Special Teams? 
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#22
Posted: 9/6/2013 1:02:29 PM
they were NOT tied at half...yes NMSU is TURRIBLE, but get the facts straight (14-7).  texas scored 56 points in about 34 mins (obviously starting with about 4 mins left in the first half).  now, if texas had come out in the first half with guns a blazzing and then had been shut out in the second half, that might be cause for some concern.  ill be shocked if texas doesn't cover by at least a touchdown.  
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#23
Posted: 9/6/2013 4:28:50 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:


Really the altitude??? That will play a bigger part in the this game then the matchups at every position?? 
 
This has nothing to do with week 1 performances. If this was the first game of the year for either team I would feel the same way. If u werent aware some teams get better and some teams get worse from year to year. The betting public has a hard time realizing this.

I really dont think betting college football is for you. U might want to get a new hobbby. Maybe just do fantasy football. Or collect stamps. 

Taysom Hill BYUs QB hasnt proven that he can move an offense. Thats what Im betting against. Im also betting againt this NEW BYU defense. No where close to last years defense. The defense bailed the horrible offense out last year. Not this year. 


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#24
Posted: 9/6/2013 6:00:02 PM

I’ve heard a couple of media personalities include Texas in the National Championship discussion…  I’m just NOT drinking the kool-aid…  Mac Brown is finished!  With that said, put me down for Brigham Young University plus the chalk for four (4) C-Notes AND Brigham Young ML (+225) for one (1) C-Note please.  Thanks! 

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#25
Posted: 9/6/2013 7:14:43 PM
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