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Author: [College Football] Topic: Florida State at Pittsburgh (09/02/2013)
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#1
Posted: 7/19/2013 10:20:55 AM

Away:  Florida State [0-0 ATS]
Home:  Pittsburgh [0-0 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: Heinz Field

Recent Meetings:
N/A

Team Leaders:

Florida State:
Passing: N/A
Rushing: N/A
Receiving: N/A

Pittsburgh:
Passing: N/A
Rushing: N/A
Receiving: N/A

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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thesoulpurpose
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#2
Posted: 8/31/2013 11:44:54 AM
florida state  -10,  this one will not be close, 
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#3
Posted: 9/1/2013 10:07:42 PM
Under 49 for me.
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#4
Posted: 9/1/2013 10:32:17 PM
I think it will be a close game. No blowout.  game will be decided in the 4th quarter. time to see if Chryst can coach and if FSU doesn't eff up in a game that has been blown up through Pittsburgh. Hopefully a good game!!!!...

This game will decide by a field goal at the end!!!23-20 final.
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#5
Posted: 9/1/2013 10:40:44 PM
There might be a backdoor cover for either team. I see FSU with a late score to cover or Pitt with a late score to cover. Going to study a little bit more. Remember everyone but with your head not with your heart. BOL
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#6
Posted: 9/2/2013 4:42:46 AM
Thanks for the advice .....we'll but with our heads, lmao!
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#7
Posted: 9/2/2013 4:52:25 AM
1st game, @ home, last season, Pitt lost to a very unranked Youngstown.St 17-31.......

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#8
Posted: 9/2/2013 7:57:49 AM
I pick under 49 for the game


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#9
Posted: 9/2/2013 10:39:05 AM

Top of the morning all…  Florida State on paper is the play here; however Jimbo Fisher against the spread with the whole world on his side (80%+) is NOT a safe play.  In addition, asking the freshman signal caller to go on the road in a nationally televised game and cover 10 points against a grown axx signal caller (Tom Savage – 23 years old) that started as a true freshman for a very competitive Rutgers squad and due to transfers has had to sit out two years to see the playing field again is a TALL order.  Savage was good enough to beat out a senior to start at Rutgers so he definitely has some talent…  He was good enough for Greg Schiano to bench a senior signal caller so he’s definitely good enough for me.

 

With that said, put me down for Pittsburgh plus the two score head start for a Nickel please.  Thanks! 

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#10
Posted: 9/2/2013 11:46:45 AM
 SPEED KILLS -10 
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#11
Posted: 9/2/2013 11:54:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by holtnt:

Top of the morning all…  Florida State on paper is the play here; however Jimbo Fisher against the spread with the whole world on his side (80%+) is NOT a safe play.  In addition, asking the freshman signal caller to go on the road in a nationally televised game and cover 10 points against a grown axx signal caller (Tom Savage – 23 years old) that started as a true freshman for a very competitive Rutgers squad and due to transfers has had to sit out two years to see the playing field again is a TALL order.  Savage was good enough to beat out a senior to start at Rutgers so he definitely has some talent…  He was good enough for Greg Schiano to bench a senior signal caller so he’s definitely good enough for me.

 

With that said, put me down for Pittsburgh plus the two score head start for a Nickel please.  Thanks! 

Your support for Pitt seems to be based entirely on the experienced play, or the lack thereof, at the qb position. If the freshman signal caller for Florida is not ready to play on the big stage, why should he be playing?  
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#12
Posted: 9/2/2013 12:18:27 PM
Pitts all the way. plus the point
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#13
Posted: 9/2/2013 12:20:09 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by best_bets:

Your support for Pitt seems to be based entirely on the experienced play, or the lack thereof, at the qb position. If the freshman signal caller for Florida is not ready to play on the big stage, why should he be playing?  


Best _bets,

 

I wouldn’t say my entire play is based on the experience at the QB position, but that is obviously a factor.  The main factor is Jimbo Fisher track record against the spread…  He always seems to get the WIN but never covers the spread…  If my memory serves me correct, he didn’t cover last year against Duke, Clemson, Maryland (who sucked last year) and South Florida…  all of which he had superior talent and was favored (I cashed in the South Florida and Clemson games).

 

I say it is NOT bad luck that he never seems to cover against inferior talent (hint hint hint) and now the Wise Men in Vegas wants me to jump on FSU when on paper this line should be at least a 14 point spread…  Panthers all day baby!!!


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#14
Posted: 9/2/2013 12:29:56 PM

Covers Contest Record to Date 7 -3 ( verify by searching under Leaderboard)

Using my methods, I have to look at this game as  50/50 proposition which means a no play for me.

Reasons are as follows:
 - The number has been moving up all week from FSU -7.5 to -10.5 or -11 in some places.  Has backed off to -10 now and appears to be settling in around -10.

-Combining the Sports Insights consensus (81% on FSU), this line looks like a pure public line move.  A lot of people are misinformed about fading the public.  Bettors will only win about 51% over the long haul betting against the public.  Examples this past weekend were Cal +6  (Loser), TCU -4  (Loser), Wash -3.5  (W) and Syracuse +9 (W).  There may have been more but I restrict my plays to games of no more than 9 pt spreads except in special situations like losing the play on Idaho +15.

Bottom line - Fading the public is a good idea but you cannot do it blindly.  You must have other validated reasons to make the play.  Use anti public systems to support other data from other sources.

Tonight is a pure public game.  National TV.  Only 1 game on the card.  Glamour team FSU going against a lesser opponent with less of a national following.  If I had to play, I would have to take Pitt at a 51% success rate vs 49% for backing FSU.  But the pcts are both losers in the long run so I see no need to get involved with this one.

My other indicators also have slight leans to Pitt but not enough to bump the win pct in the 55% rate which is my goal for every season since I finalized this approach over a year ago.

No play tonight for me.

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#15
Posted: 9/2/2013 12:48:15 PM
Florida St and the under. i dont see where pitt scores at all with there newcoming offense, unless florida st makes mistakes on the offensive side of the ball they should win this easily, even with a freshman at the helm. late score by pitt makes the score. 27-13 FSU 
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#16
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:13:22 PM

Welcome to the ACC Pitt   unfortunately for you, you have to begin playing one of the elite teams in the conference.  I think your in a bit over your head tonight Panthers.

Florida St - 31                                      Pittsburgh - 14

Seminoles -10                                     under 49

Yes the Noles have problems covering spreads (4-8) ats last season, but tonight looks like a good spot for them to shine.

Seminoles - Under 

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#17
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:24:22 PM
That freshman QB for florida st is not just another frosh QB, he is going to be very very good. Just watch pittsburg under 19 points and Florida st -10 are my plays
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#18
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:28:07 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

Covers Contest Record to Date 7 -3 ( verify by searching under Leaderboard)

Using my methods, I have to look at this game as  50/50 proposition which means a no play for me.

Reasons are as follows:
 - The number has been moving up all week from FSU -7.5 to -10.5 or -11 in some places.  Has backed off to -10 now and appears to be settling in around -10.

-Combining the Sports Insights consensus (81% on FSU), this line looks like a pure public line move.  A lot of people are misinformed about fading the public.  Bettors will only win about 51% over the long haul betting against the public.  Examples this past weekend were Cal +6  (Loser), TCU -4  (Loser), Wash -3.5  (W) and Syracuse +9 (W).  There may have been more but I restrict my plays to games of no more than 9 pt spreads except in special situations like losing the play on Idaho +15.

Bottom line - Fading the public is a good idea but you cannot do it blindly.  You must have other validated reasons to make the play.  Use anti public systems to support other data from other sources.

Tonight is a pure public game.  National TV.  Only 1 game on the card.  Glamour team FSU going against a lesser opponent with less of a national following.  If I had to play, I would have to take Pitt at a 51% success rate vs 49% for backing FSU.  But the pcts are both losers in the long run so I see no need to get involved with this one.

My other indicators also have slight leans to Pitt but not enough to bump the win pct in the 55% rate which is my goal for every season since I finalized this approach over a year ago.

No play tonight for me.


Once again....I hate predictions like this..."public fav" "public betting". Not once did you talk about FSU "D" or PITB "QB", all about %'s, and "public Joe"....Talk about the teams talent, records, past records playing each other, then maybe you have an arguement.

Kinda like your arguement w/ North Texas earlier this wk vs IDAHO, how did that fair out for ya? Nuff said...
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#19
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:44:00 PM
Watching line movement sometimes tells a story. Two different books at the same time had FSU -105 on spreads of FSU -10.5 and -10 respectively. It would seem that Vegas is not concerned about FSU being able to cover the -10 or the -10.5 
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#20
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:47:20 PM
I must say a little worried about all the freshman and sophomore of FSU to give up 11pts got to go with Pitt +11
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#21
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:49:02 PM
Panther Defence to keep it close for cover or push at worst.
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#22
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:49:51 PM
QUOTE

Argument - not "argument".

Your posts speak louder than I ever could.

 

Originally Posted by micka466:


Once again....I hate predictions like this..."public fav" "public betting". Not once did you talk about FSU "D" or PITB "QB", all about %'s, and "public Joe"....Talk about the teams talent, records, past records playing each other, then maybe you have an arguement.

Kinda like your arguement w/ North Texas earlier this wk vs IDAHO, how did that fair out for ya? Nuff said...
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#23
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:50:33 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by micka466:


Once again....I hate predictions like this..."public fav" "public betting". Not once did you talk about FSU "D" or PITB "QB", all about %'s, and "public Joe"....Talk about the teams talent, records, past records playing each other, then maybe you have an arguement.

Kinda like your arguement w/ North Texas earlier this wk vs IDAHO, how did that fair out for ya? Nuff said...
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#24
Posted: 9/2/2013 1:57:33 PM
QUOTE

Just a quick FYI before I retire from responding to you.

I am 7 -3 in the Covers contest - 70% winners.  Verified.

I did not see your name in the contest.  Post your picks there against me and we can compare at end of season.

You against me tough guy.  Anyone with a Matt Hughes avatar must be man enough to post a few picks right ?  Serious compensation issues most likely.

Cmon tough guy - give us some picks to see from you for once.

 

 

  Originally Posted by combato:

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#25
Posted: 9/2/2013 2:12:20 PM

I have had problems with Jimbo myself and swore that I would leave FSU alone while he was HC...but, here I am again.  FSU looks to have too much talent, and speed for Pittsburgh.  I don't think Pitt has much of a homefield advantage as the Pitt area id just not into CFB.  The freshman QB everyone is dissing look like an upgrade to me from EJ Manuel (who also cost me several times.)  Add better STs for the Noles and I think FSU wins this one by  17+.  It is an opening game so I will factor some screw-ups in.  

FSU     34        Pit     16              4 unit play for me      GL all

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