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Author: [College Football] Topic: Northern Illinois at Florida State (01/01/2013)
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#26
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:45:13 AM
Happy new year big diesel. Over definitely. Fla st has burned us all year. N Ill and ov for the large
Posted using a mobile device.
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#27
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:56:21 AM
Lean on Under...........................
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#28
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:36:42 AM
I remember the 2008 Sugar Bowl.  Everyone was convinced Hawaii would give Georgia all it could handle, and win outright.  The caliper of talent on each team and who they played was dramatically different.  I see a similar scenario here.  Georgia won 41-10 and was leading 38-3 after 3Q's then took the foot off the gas.

FLST -14

Gl all,

Tex aka Tony Bucca
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combato
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#29
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:23:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fakecake2727:

Yzzguy I have to ask, you said you like NIU, but you didn't take them with your pending picks?? Can I ask why, just curious....


I bet real money - contests are a waste of time for me. I play around in them sometimes but it is just silly to me to play for nothing.  Still a fair question for sure.  Maybe I should be more serious in the future if others are actually looking at it.  I am not a pro handicapper or a tout so I have no vested interest in whether people like what I am doing or not. 
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#30
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:25:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

In my opinion, this is the toughest game to call for the entire bowl season. The disparity in talent and schedule appears to be enormously in favor of FSU ( the eye test ).  But my numbers are strongly biased toward NIU for this game.  The NIU QB had complicated things by talking trash to the media about how NIU will run all over FSU.  Not a great strategy if you are a MAC team but maybe he knows something we don't know.  Here are the numbers
1.  Consensus - 60% at SI on FSU would indicate a moderately good play on NIU
2.  Score Predictor - Makes FSU 31 - 28 winner, well within the pointspread to make a play  on NIU
3.  Sharp / Square ML Differential - A play on NIU here.  This indicator is now 8 - 1 in bowl games including Tulsa and Clemson yesterday.
4.  CE Differential - The sharper handicappers are favoring FSU by 11% which is moderately strong.  This indicator is only at 50% for the bowl season however.

I usually make a play on the dog or pass when bowl games are involved and this game is no exception. I can make a case for NIU based on the numbers despite my reservations from the " eye test" of looking at the teams in action.  NIU 1 unit only.

UPDATE ON THIS GAME - NIU IS GRADUALLY MOVING TO 49% CONSENSUS.  THIS IS NOT TYPICAL OF A MATCHUP LIKE THIS.  PUBLIC IS FALLING FOR NIU LATE AND THIS IS NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR NIU BETTORS. DO NOT PLAY NIU, SKIP THIS ONE.
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#31
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:37:23 PM

Northern Illinois + 14.5 over Florida State!

Must take the heavy points in this one!  Northern Illinois and Florida State dead-even on defense, but Northern Illinois holds a + 12 advantage on offense last three games!  And NI defense only allowing 19 ppg!

Will look for Northern Illinois mobile QB Jordan Lynch (2962 YDs, 136 rushing yards per game and 24 TDs) to go with key WR Martel Moore (1054 YDs and 12 TDs) and break through Florida State's sub-par defense and cover the 14 + point spread!

Florida State only 2-8 vs. point spread last 10 games!

Northern Illinois 12-0 straight up last 12 games!

And Northern Illinois now 8-1 vs. spread last 9 games!

4-Team Parlay Plus Straight Up Plays:

Northern Illinois plus 14.5 vs. Florida State!  Small Play

Louisville plus 14 vs. Florida!                        Small Play

Houston minus 5 over Cincinnati!       Go for Broke Play!

Indianapolis plus 6 vs. Baltimore!       Go for Broke Play!

Northern Illinois plus 14.5 vs. Florida State!

           GLTA                                    

 

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#32
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:47:57 PM
These schools from middle of the road conferences that get into big time bowl games often get killed when going up against a major power program. FSU is one such program. FSU may be outside the top 10, it's still Florida State. Bigger conference, tougher schedule.
Noles minus the points.
 

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#33
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:20:18 PM
Forget the points. NIU wins straight up. ML is the play!

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#34
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:37:25 PM
ALL THIS ATS AND BULLCRAP NUMBERS AND TRENDS.LISTEN GUYS NIU DOES NOT HAS THE TALENT PERIOD. I WATCHED NIU PLAY TOLEDO ON ESPN SOMETIME AGO AND THE QB FOR NIU WHO IS HYPED UP FOR THE GAME JUST RUNS STRAIGHT BETWEEN THE TACKLES AND THROW NOT SO WELL BALL.G.T GAVE FSU ALL THEY CAN HANDLE THEY RUN TRIPLE OPTION BUT THEY PLAY THAT SYSTEM FOREVER G.T IS G.T NIU HAS 240 POUNDS LINEMEN FSU HAS 240 LINEBACKERS NIU HAS 6 FEET TALL WR AND FSU HAS 6 FOOT 1 CORNERS..PEOPLE WILL GET HURT I PROMISE..
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#35
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:12:35 PM
FSU LARGE!!
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#36
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:12:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vacation:

These schools from middle of the road conferences that get into big time bowl games often get killed when going up against a major power program. FSU is one such program. FSU may be outside the top 10, it's still Florida State. Bigger conference, tougher schedule.
Noles minus the points.
 




"BCS Busters" have gone 5–2 in BCS bowl games, and 4–1 in BCS bowls against teams from BCS conferences
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#37
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:13:21 PM
Utah won both its BCS bowl appearances in 2004 and 2008, Boise State won both of its appearances in 2006 and 2009, while TCU won a BCS bowl in 2010 after losing one in 2009 (to Boise State). The only team that could reasonably be described as "playing a weak schedule and then being exposed by a BCS team" is the 2007 Hawaii team, which was defeated by Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl.
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#38
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:25:37 PM
Not just beat, Hawaii was in another football field.
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#39
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:00:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:



I bet real money - contests are a waste of time for me. I play around in them sometimes but it is just silly to me to play for nothing.  Still a fair question for sure.  Maybe I should be more serious in the future if others are actually looking at it.  I am not a pro handicapper or a tout so I have no vested interest in whether people like what I am doing or not. 
Yeah i made that same mistake with contest.Chit, i bet full baseball cards just by the pattern the dot made, yet did not actually wager one thin dime .Did not know that chit would follow me.Having said that i do not trust Fl. St. i mean they probably dont care too much about this game, sure they want to win but not with a burning desire.
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#40
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:01:37 PM
FSU suck what a joke. How manytimes did they burn public money this year. I rather take a points

NIU +14
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#41
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:06:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gastown:



     They were 3-9 ATS this year.  

FSU vs Florida:  FLORIDA ML (won $685)---which I posted 
FSU vs VT:  VT ats (won $247)- cashed
FSU vs GT: GT ats (won $180) - cashed. 

I lost ATS when they played NC STATE (lost $90). 

SO...

thanks for a valid 33rd post on your account, maybe next time have some knowledge on a team, or sport before you type garbage. Living in Canada- I have the same football packages, internet, travel distance to view just as many games. I probably attended MORE (Mich x2, WV, OH ST) NCAAF games than you this year, Jack. 


 "Jack"

Get em gas
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#42
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:33:14 PM
Gonna take a shot on the heavy dog tonight.  Florida State is consistently one of the most overrated teams in the country and they have done very little to impress me this year.  Can't cover against USF and NCST...Analogies are weak arguments but I have trouble believing that FSU rolls
NIU + 2 td's

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#43
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:43:45 PM
FSU..3-9 ATS against Wake, BC etc., 

favs are winning every game today 4-0 against the # with Stanford playing..this is the U/D backdoor COVER...

taking FSU -3 1st qt..they`ll want to start fast.. 

NIU covers game parlay and teaser...LARGE...
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#44
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:10:00 PM

Happy New Years

Too many point for the bowl game. The system show  Under dogs 70% win of all time

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#45
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:14:11 PM
Sagarin Fl St by 8 1/2 Dunkel by 1 Take the points  to this crazy world we live in 
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#46
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:44:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tex-101:

I remember the 2008 Sugar Bowl.  Everyone was convinced Hawaii would give Georgia all it could handle, and win outright.  The caliper of talent on each team and who they played was dramatically different.  I see a similar scenario here.  Georgia won 41-10 and was leading 38-3 after 3Q's then took the foot off the gas.

FLST -14

Gl all,

Tex aka Tony Bucca


The difference in that game was colt brennon ( hawaii's QB) was accused by his own team mates of partying all night the night before.  So if you got some inside scoops on key players let me know cause I'm on the fence on this one...
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#47
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:24:09 PM
all this fat people eating chips and talking garbage about others people opinion.... im sure something ugly will come out of this game...
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#48
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:27:18 PM
This is a rout if FSU is motivated. Will they be? I think so. 
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#49
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:46:50 PM
Florida St -14 
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#50
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:13:53 PM
The W8train pulled into the station a little close to departure but will roll full steam ahead for those that could not make the trip to the 
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