Northern Illinois at Florida State (01/01/2013)

Forum: College Football Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
Author: [College Football] Topic: Northern Illinois at Florida State (01/01/2013)
DrDogs PM DrDogs
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 1895
 
DrDogs
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:45:13 AM
Happy new year big diesel. Over definitely. Fla st has burned us all year. N Ill and ov for the large
Posted using a mobile device.
imaxfli PM imaxfli
Joined: Jan 2008
Posts: 352
 
imaxfli
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:56:21 AM
Lean on Under...........................
Tex-101 PM Tex-101
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1548
 
Tex-101
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:36:42 AM
I remember the 2008 Sugar Bowl.  Everyone was convinced Hawaii would give Georgia all it could handle, and win outright.  The caliper of talent on each team and who they played was dramatically different.  I see a similar scenario here.  Georgia won 41-10 and was leading 38-3 after 3Q's then took the foot off the gas.

FLST -14

Gl all,

Tex aka Tony Bucca
combato PM combato
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 754
 
combato
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:23:00 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by fakecake2727:

Yzzguy I have to ask, you said you like NIU, but you didn't take them with your pending picks?? Can I ask why, just curious....


I bet real money - contests are a waste of time for me. I play around in them sometimes but it is just silly to me to play for nothing.  Still a fair question for sure.  Maybe I should be more serious in the future if others are actually looking at it.  I am not a pro handicapper or a tout so I have no vested interest in whether people like what I am doing or not. 
combato PM combato
Joined: Oct 2001
Posts: 754
 
combato
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 1/1/2013 11:25:26 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:

In my opinion, this is the toughest game to call for the entire bowl season. The disparity in talent and schedule appears to be enormously in favor of FSU ( the eye test ).  But my numbers are strongly biased toward NIU for this game.  The NIU QB had complicated things by talking trash to the media about how NIU will run all over FSU.  Not a great strategy if you are a MAC team but maybe he knows something we don't know.  Here are the numbers
1.  Consensus - 60% at SI on FSU would indicate a moderately good play on NIU
2.  Score Predictor - Makes FSU 31 - 28 winner, well within the pointspread to make a play  on NIU
3.  Sharp / Square ML Differential - A play on NIU here.  This indicator is now 8 - 1 in bowl games including Tulsa and Clemson yesterday.
4.  CE Differential - The sharper handicappers are favoring FSU by 11% which is moderately strong.  This indicator is only at 50% for the bowl season however.

I usually make a play on the dog or pass when bowl games are involved and this game is no exception. I can make a case for NIU based on the numbers despite my reservations from the " eye test" of looking at the teams in action.  NIU 1 unit only.

UPDATE ON THIS GAME - NIU IS GRADUALLY MOVING TO 49% CONSENSUS.  THIS IS NOT TYPICAL OF A MATCHUP LIKE THIS.  PUBLIC IS FALLING FOR NIU LATE AND THIS IS NOT A GOOD SIGN FOR NIU BETTORS. DO NOT PLAY NIU, SKIP THIS ONE.
SportsPredictor PM SportsPredictor
Joined: Oct 2012
Posts: 688
 
SportsPredictor
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:37:23 PM

Northern Illinois + 14.5 over Florida State!

Must take the heavy points in this one!  Northern Illinois and Florida State dead-even on defense, but Northern Illinois holds a + 12 advantage on offense last three games!  And NI defense only allowing 19 ppg!

Will look for Northern Illinois mobile QB Jordan Lynch (2962 YDs, 136 rushing yards per game and 24 TDs) to go with key WR Martel Moore (1054 YDs and 12 TDs) and break through Florida State's sub-par defense and cover the 14 + point spread!

Florida State only 2-8 vs. point spread last 10 games!

Northern Illinois 12-0 straight up last 12 games!

And Northern Illinois now 8-1 vs. spread last 9 games!

4-Team Parlay Plus Straight Up Plays:

Northern Illinois plus 14.5 vs. Florida State!  Small Play

Louisville plus 14 vs. Florida!                        Small Play

Houston minus 5 over Cincinnati!       Go for Broke Play!

Indianapolis plus 6 vs. Baltimore!       Go for Broke Play!

Northern Illinois plus 14.5 vs. Florida State!

           GLTA                                    

 

vacation PM vacation
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 129
 
vacation
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 12:47:57 PM
These schools from middle of the road conferences that get into big time bowl games often get killed when going up against a major power program. FSU is one such program. FSU may be outside the top 10, it's still Florida State. Bigger conference, tougher schedule.
Noles minus the points.
 

knickerbocker PM knickerbocker
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 228
 
knickerbocker
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:20:18 PM
Forget the points. NIU wins straight up. ML is the play!

tricksam PM tricksam
Joined: Aug 2012
Posts: 38
 
tricksam
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 4:37:25 PM
ALL THIS ATS AND BULLCRAP NUMBERS AND TRENDS.LISTEN GUYS NIU DOES NOT HAS THE TALENT PERIOD. I WATCHED NIU PLAY TOLEDO ON ESPN SOMETIME AGO AND THE QB FOR NIU WHO IS HYPED UP FOR THE GAME JUST RUNS STRAIGHT BETWEEN THE TACKLES AND THROW NOT SO WELL BALL.G.T GAVE FSU ALL THEY CAN HANDLE THEY RUN TRIPLE OPTION BUT THEY PLAY THAT SYSTEM FOREVER G.T IS G.T NIU HAS 240 POUNDS LINEMEN FSU HAS 240 LINEBACKERS NIU HAS 6 FEET TALL WR AND FSU HAS 6 FOOT 1 CORNERS..PEOPLE WILL GET HURT I PROMISE..
DeepTiger PM DeepTiger
Joined: Dec 2011
Posts: 7
 
DeepTiger
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:12:35 PM
FSU LARGE!!
Eaglesfan811 PM Eaglesfan811
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 337
 
Eaglesfan811
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:12:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by vacation:

These schools from middle of the road conferences that get into big time bowl games often get killed when going up against a major power program. FSU is one such program. FSU may be outside the top 10, it's still Florida State. Bigger conference, tougher schedule.
Noles minus the points.
 




"BCS Busters" have gone 5–2 in BCS bowl games, and 4–1 in BCS bowls against teams from BCS conferences
Eaglesfan811 PM Eaglesfan811
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 337
 
Eaglesfan811
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:13:21 PM
Utah won both its BCS bowl appearances in 2004 and 2008, Boise State won both of its appearances in 2006 and 2009, while TCU won a BCS bowl in 2010 after losing one in 2009 (to Boise State). The only team that could reasonably be described as "playing a weak schedule and then being exposed by a BCS team" is the 2007 Hawaii team, which was defeated by Georgia in the 2008 Sugar Bowl.
Tex-101 PM Tex-101
Joined: Nov 2006
Posts: 1548
 
Tex-101
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/1/2013 5:25:37 PM
Not just beat, Hawaii was in another football field.
Biscuiteater1 PM Biscuiteater1
Joined: Jan 2011
Posts: 16535
 
Biscuiteater1
Participation Meter
MVP
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:00:01 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by combato:



I bet real money - contests are a waste of time for me. I play around in them sometimes but it is just silly to me to play for nothing.  Still a fair question for sure.  Maybe I should be more serious in the future if others are actually looking at it.  I am not a pro handicapper or a tout so I have no vested interest in whether people like what I am doing or not. 
Yeah i made that same mistake with contest.Chit, i bet full baseball cards just by the pattern the dot made, yet did not actually wager one thin dime .Did not know that chit would follow me.Having said that i do not trust Fl. St. i mean they probably dont care too much about this game, sure they want to win but not with a burning desire.
MasterNBA PM MasterNBA
Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 2265
 
MasterNBA
Participation Meter
Veteran
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:01:37 PM
FSU suck what a joke. How manytimes did they burn public money this year. I rather take a points

NIU +14
ClassyAnski PM ClassyAnski
Joined: Nov 2004
Posts: 7062
 
ClassyAnski
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:06:13 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by gastown:



     They were 3-9 ATS this year.  

FSU vs Florida:  FLORIDA ML (won $685)---which I posted 
FSU vs VT:  VT ats (won $247)- cashed
FSU vs GT: GT ats (won $180) - cashed. 

I lost ATS when they played NC STATE (lost $90). 

SO...

thanks for a valid 33rd post on your account, maybe next time have some knowledge on a team, or sport before you type garbage. Living in Canada- I have the same football packages, internet, travel distance to view just as many games. I probably attended MORE (Mich x2, WV, OH ST) NCAAF games than you this year, Jack. 


 "Jack"

Get em gas
RollSparty PM RollSparty
Joined: Sep 2010
Posts: 372
 
RollSparty
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:33:14 PM
Gonna take a shot on the heavy dog tonight.  Florida State is consistently one of the most overrated teams in the country and they have done very little to impress me this year.  Can't cover against USF and NCST...Analogies are weak arguments but I have trouble believing that FSU rolls
NIU + 2 td's

mtgmoney PM mtgmoney
Joined: Sep 2008
Posts: 340
 
mtgmoney
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 6:43:45 PM
FSU..3-9 ATS against Wake, BC etc., 

favs are winning every game today 4-0 against the # with Stanford playing..this is the U/D backdoor COVER...

taking FSU -3 1st qt..they`ll want to start fast.. 

NIU covers game parlay and teaser...LARGE...
TD9999 PM TD9999
Joined: Aug 2011
Posts: 4
 
TD9999
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:10:00 PM

Happy New Years

Too many point for the bowl game. The system show  Under dogs 70% win of all time

Classof78 PM Classof78
Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 803
 
Classof78
Participation Meter
Rookie
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:14:11 PM
Sagarin Fl St by 8 1/2 Dunkel by 1 Take the points  to this crazy world we live in 
Igher PM Igher
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 4
 
Igher
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 7:44:04 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Tex-101:

I remember the 2008 Sugar Bowl.  Everyone was convinced Hawaii would give Georgia all it could handle, and win outright.  The caliper of talent on each team and who they played was dramatically different.  I see a similar scenario here.  Georgia won 41-10 and was leading 38-3 after 3Q's then took the foot off the gas.

FLST -14

Gl all,

Tex aka Tony Bucca


The difference in that game was colt brennon ( hawaii's QB) was accused by his own team mates of partying all night the night before.  So if you got some inside scoops on key players let me know cause I'm on the fence on this one...
johnpolino04 PM johnpolino04
Joined: Nov 2012
Posts: 324
 
johnpolino04
Participation Meter
Prospect
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:24:09 PM
all this fat people eating chips and talking garbage about others people opinion.... im sure something ugly will come out of this game...
mightiestmojo PM mightiestmojo
Joined: May 2009
Posts: 6731
 
mightiestmojo
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:27:18 PM
This is a rout if FSU is motivated. Will they be? I think so. 
W8LIFTER PM W8LIFTER
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 5909
 
W8LIFTER
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 1/1/2013 8:46:50 PM
Florida St -14 
W8LIFTER PM W8LIFTER
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 5909
 
W8LIFTER
Participation Meter
Captain
Posted: 1/1/2013 9:13:53 PM
The W8train pulled into the station a little close to departure but will roll full steam ahead for those that could not make the trip to the 
Forum: College Football Page 2 of 3  1 2 3  
You have entered the forum as a GUEST. 
You must login/register to post or reply.