Louisville at Florida (01/02/2013)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Louisville at Florida (01/02/2013)
best_bets PM best_bets
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:02:03 AM

UPSET SPECIAL

Lou 24

Gators 20

Fade or follow...........bol

gonzalo71 PM gonzalo71
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:16:42 AM
had a very good new years eve and new years day bowl games going 9-1-1, so here are my picks for the reminder of the bowl games

Louisville +14
Kansas st +8
Oklahoma +3.5
Pitt +3.5
Arkansas st -3.5
Notre Dame +10

good luck to everybody

Coloneljim PM Coloneljim
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Posted: 1/2/2013 6:58:02 AM

Florida - 31                                             Louisville - 21

Cardinals +14                                       over 45.5

I don't like taking the Gators as a non-conference fav. The double digits might be worth a shot tonight. Good game in the Big Easy tonight.

Louisville - Over

imaxfli PM imaxfli
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Posted: 1/2/2013 8:54:17 AM
Some of bowl matchups are a joke...no way did Navy or NIll deserve to play teams that outweighed them by 50 pounds on the line, If NCAA REALLY CARED about safety these mismatches would not be allowed-go weigh each bowl eligible offensive and defensive lines(7 offense, 5 defense and get an average, THEN match up teams, don't allow the huge differences), guess it would have taken a NIll guy to get paralyzed before the NCAA will do anything..............NOW this sites PREVIEW has picked Louisville to win outright-kinds like Lee Corso picking N Ill to WIN, people in Vegas get the word to these outlets to get some misinfo out there to lessen their loses, this could be another case. Florida scored 37 on FSU, FSU beat Duke 48-7 and Duke hung with Cinci in their bowl, Louisville took Cinci to OT at Cinci...can't take these big dogs the last week of bowl season, was proud of how N Ill battled and Neb hung, but they both didn't cover...........
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Posted: 1/2/2013 9:32:55 AM
Under.....21-3
jmoney333 PM jmoney333
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Posted: 1/2/2013 10:39:39 AM
I totally agree with imaxfil, about the mismatches in these bowls. I am still amazed that Clemson got the win over LSU. The refs helped them as much as they could. Just like with Michigan yesterday. But, Clowney took matters into his own hands after the refs ripped them off!  Long story short. What imaxfli said!! I rarely post on covers. I just try to get some insight into the games like most on here. Combato i appreciate your opinion. I would love to know how your system works!  I have only agreed with you on a few games. I saw you on here yesterday boistering about your bowl record when most of those picks were not good! They got lucky to cover. TCU for example ! I aprreciate your insight, but doesn't make complete since. It does make some since, which is alot more than i can say for many posts that i see on here!              Sit back and watch the heavily over matched Cardinals get curbstomped!! Just like every other mismatch!! I believe this one gets really ugly! That super power Louisville offence gets 2 tds maybe a fg too....
jmoney333 PM jmoney333
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Posted: 1/2/2013 10:43:26 AM

Really thats being generous..... Gators by 3tds +

ItsInTheBag604 PM ItsInTheBag604
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Posted: 1/2/2013 11:50:47 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Atlanta:

Last three games, UL Lafayette, Jacksonville State, and FSU. Scoring in the 20's (and late at that) against ULL and JSU is supposed to give me confidence in their offensive improvement?

But putting up almost 400 yards of offense and 37 points against an FSU defense that ranked 1 in the country at the time is a pretty big improvement.  It's easy for a team to come out flat and overlook schools like Lafayette and Jax St.  Lay the points, L'Ville wont put up more than 10 on that defense. Add in the fact that UF is going to have a chip on their shoulder believing they should be the the NC game. L'Ville also ranked 2nd to last defending the run in the Big East.  Field day for Gillislee and the Gators O Line.  Good Luck

GoldenGears PM GoldenGears
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Posted: 1/2/2013 12:28:04 PM
In my opinion, a good offense beats a good defense ALMOST every time, in college anyway. With over a month for both teams to prepare, im guessing that Louisville spent that time beefing up thier offense because they are relatively confident in their defense and lets be serious, FLA hasnt put up that many points on offense this season. Please dont mention their last 3 games again... The motivational factor for 2 of those teams is basically non-existent. 

I am sure that FLA spent time bulking defense and offense accordingly but are so confident in their defense they focused on strengthening the offense which has somewhat struggled. 

If thats the case for coaching strategy in this past month which plays a huge factor, I think we can expect decent scoring out of both team. Its gonna be close but like LOUISVILLE as the play here. 

31 - 20 GATORS  - CARDINALS +14.5

tulanebill PM tulanebill
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Posted: 1/2/2013 1:06:48 PM
Jmoney.....please go back to school and learn that "sense" is not spelled "since".....


tulanebill PM tulanebill
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Posted: 1/2/2013 1:16:08 PM
I'm really in a cranky mood today....reading these comments about the outlook for the game is very difficult when you are constantly sidetracked by irritation over "since" for '"sense," "there" for "their," "better" for "bettor," and so on and so on.


yanks27 PM yanks27
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Posted: 1/2/2013 2:01:09 PM
LSU stopped recruiting Bridgewater???? TOTAL BULLSHIT! He was recruited until the very end by LSU, Florida, Miami Florida & everyone else in the country until the very end. Smoke another one Dude...
ibgoos2u PM ibgoos2u
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Posted: 1/2/2013 2:04:44 PM
If you're looking for proper spelling and punctuation, perhaps you should be reading threads about english literature?
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Posted: 1/2/2013 2:26:14 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier]

combato - so you think louisville's D is demonstrative of the D's faced by this Florida Offense during the season...If I recall, FIU and other bottom 20 teams gave Lou good games this year.

Teddy Bridgewater is going to run for his life.   With Pease as Fla OC's, they have the coaching ability and you know Driskell and the weapons on O, with a month to prepare, will be ready to bust out against a suspect Lou D.   If Fla were playing OU or another premium team, I could buy your perspective.    I think Fla will run the ball down their throats, interject the pass, and play shutdown D with several turnovers.  Sure, Strong is a good coach and I commend him for staying at Lou.  But, Muschamp is an aggresive SOB who is probably not proud on how the regular season ended.  This is a spotlight game for Muschamp his Fla program.  They made progress this year, but Muschamp wants to take it to the next level.

Call me a square if you like, but I think Florida is going to dominate in the Superdome from start to finish...Lou will get 7-10 additional points in the 4th, but Fla will cover this otherwise lofty spread...and I think the sharps believe that as well...

I posted this some time ago, before the results of the NY day games.  It is clear that the upper echelon SEC schools are too good to fade this year ( LSU being the exception ),  While I don't think Florida is good play because of offensive weakness, I am not going to be on LV after all.  I only have to get slapped around a few games by Ga and SC before I stop pounding my  head against the wall.  I am passing this one.

combato PM combato
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Posted: 1/2/2013 2:29:18 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jmoney333:

I totally agree with imaxfil, about the mismatches in these bowls. I am still amazed that Clemson got the win over LSU. The refs helped them as much as they could. Just like with Michigan yesterday. But, Clowney took matters into his own hands after the refs ripped them off!  Long story short. What imaxfli said!! I rarely post on covers. I just try to get some insight into the games like most on here. Combato i appreciate your opinion. I would love to know how your system works!  I have only agreed with you on a few games. I saw you on here yesterday boistering about your bowl record when most of those picks were not good! They got lucky to cover. TCU for example ! I aprreciate your insight, but doesn't make complete since. It does make some since, which is alot more than i can say for many posts that i see on here!              Sit back and watch the heavily over matched Cardinals get curbstomped!! Just like every other mismatch!! I believe this one gets really ugly! That super power Louisville offence gets 2 tds maybe a fg too....


I am getting off Louisville and passing the game after all.  On NY Day, I saw enough of the top tier SEC defensive  teams to know that is not a good idea to fade these teams this year ( top tier only, middle tier no big deal and I plan to be big on OU vs TAMU in a few days).
combato PM combato
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Posted: 1/2/2013 2:32:33 PM
NY Day must have been an awful day for the sportsbooks.  Every favorite covered, a square bettors heaven and the bookies worst nightmare.  I am sure parlays of all kinds were hit by the squares. Oh well, squares have to win occasionally because it keeps them coming back for bigger beatings in the future.   Will be interesting to see if this trend continues or if the books start a comeback with LV tonight.  Not with my money, at least not on LV
combato PM combato
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:03:27 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by landshaper] combato. u have had some bad plays lately. new years day was an easy betting day and u picked all losers. i think sometimes all of your stats hurt u. florida will dominate louisville. there d will not allow them to score more than 14 points. they play in a weak conference against some cupcake teams. take florida to win by 3 tds.

I always take my losses with a smile because no one goes much better than 60% over the long haul.  Regression to the mean is a fact of life when dealing in events that have a high degree of randomness (like college football).  The trick is to be consistent over time, not over one day or a week.  That is why it is important to have a numbers based approach first and then make subjective adjustments to those numbers.  Doing it backwards means betting with your eyes and then looking for stats, numbers, etc. that  support what your eyes saw.  Works sometimes but I don't think it is a viable long term approach.  You gotta be objective to win in the long run.

NY Day was a great day for the squares, the favorite players, the parlay players, the public in general.  But that is one day and sportsbooks are still open.  I am not going to complain about 9 -6 in bowl season either.
combato PM combato
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:06:29 PM
[Quote: Originally Posted by tulanebill] I'm really in a cranky mood today....reading these comments about the outlook for the game is very difficult when you are constantly sidetracked by irritation over "since" for '"sense," "there" for "their," "better" for "bettor," and so on and so on.


I share your love of the English language.  I  have never been sure the correct spelling of " parlay".  Is it "parlay" or "parley".  Seriously, I am not kidding here.

searider72 PM searider72
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:19:57 PM
Florida is bigger faster and stronger.  Just like FSU Florida will shut down Louisville.  They will wear down Louisville in the 2nd half and bust the game open.  Floridas D will put a lot of pressure on Bridgewater and get TOs.  Florida O will grind down Lousville with the running game and the play action passes will get big passes down the field.  Florida will romp.

Florida -14 and Over
ATLiens007 PM ATLiens007
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:49:47 PM
Can't trust Louisville!
Not enough explosive plays to put up
against a shutdown Florida defense!
Driskel has a college career breakout performance
in passing yards against a weak single coverage
Louisville defense!
Macallanlover PM Macallanlover
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Posted: 1/2/2013 3:58:23 PM
QUOTE

Wow, not saying you aren't right, and me wrong, but I like the other side of Every single one of those games (except a couple I won't bet at all.)   But I will limit comments to tonight's game since that is the thread.  plenty of time for the BCS title game.

I like Florida a lot tonight but take a different approach at getting there.  I feel Florida is overrated because of their weakness on offense, but they are physically superior on both sides of the ball.  They don't have to be a well-oiled machine offensively to score.  First their OL line strength against a weal rushing defense will allow them to dominate the game.  Add the speed from both the QB and RB and look for some big gains from the line of scrimmage.  When Strong has to bring run support up to stop the run, the average UF passing Qb will have some speedy receivers to throw to.

But the primary reason Florida blows this team out is the Florida defense.  They will stifle the Lousiville offense to get turnovers and short fields for the Florida offense.  So the defense will make Florida's offense look much better, they don't have to be that good.  Now add the Florida Special Teams edge and you have a good cahnce for a blowout.  Florida's punter and place kicker rank near the top of the country.  I would also say the chance of a punt or kickoff return is high/  This is a mismatch folks.  Louisville didn't even win the Big Least, they were awarded the game as part of a 3 way tie.  Now look at who Florida played this year.  Make your own call but I think Florida will have their backups in late in the 3rd.  Muschamp does want to make a statement to help with recruiting and get a higher ranking for next year.  A blowout win will get him the #2 spot in the final poll.

Anything can happen in a bowl game, that we all know, but this is a 4 or 5 unit play for me.  happy New Year everyone.

Originally Posted by gonzalo71:

had a very good new years eve and new years day bowl games going 9-1-1, so here are my picks for the reminder of the bowl games

Louisville +14
Kansas st +8
Oklahoma +3.5
Pitt +3.5
Arkansas st -3.5
Notre Dame +10

good luck to everybody

eezmoney PM eezmoney
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Posted: 1/2/2013 4:19:00 PM
Florida are known to beat down a small weak programs like West Virginia, Syracuse, Maryland, and Cincinnati. Louisville is very similar to these school. Florida has beaten these teams 3 tds and up. Look what Syracuse did to Louisville this year (45 - 26). Syracuse loss to Missouri (27 - 31). For many of you that say that Florida quarterback cannot throw! Look what Tim Tebow did to the bowl record. He broke two records for the BCS.  He threw for a BCS record 482 passing yards and set another BCS record with 533 total yards. I guess Tebow can't throw! Watch what this qb will do to the soft Louisville defense! Louisville defense can't even hold Cinci and let them score within 40 something second to go into overtime. They barely won with a field goal in the end. Florida can even give them 18 points and I still will take them all day! GL to all!
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Posted: 1/2/2013 4:22:49 PM
Combato, don't know if Tulanebill is going to respond or not so I will add my 2 cent's. As far as I know it is 'parlay' as in 'lay' the bet to make 'par'. Like other people have said, I appreciate your insight and always pay attention to what you have to say, agree or not. Not exactly with you all together tonight, but close.

Da'Ville 1st half + 7 1/2

Small on 'Ville ML just in case

Will look for 2nd 1/2 action

BOL to all. Happy NY

With you 100% Bill. Not an English professor by any stretch of the imagination, but always try my best.
djuengoe PM djuengoe
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Posted: 1/2/2013 4:31:24 PM
Sorry Combato, spaced off you saying you were laying off all together. With you in your original thoughts, kinda.

eezmoney PM eezmoney
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Posted: 1/2/2013 4:34:10 PM
And for those that don't know Spurrier by now!  He knows the spread and will do what the Vegas folks tell him to. He really f@$k the ones that backed his team! Who would go for the two point conversion with 11 seconds to go? Look at the LSU game. He went fourth down for a td with little time left instead of kicking a field goal. He was down 10 points! Normal coaches would have kicked a field goal and try to go for the onside kick and score a td later. You guys don't think these guys know the spread? Another game was on 10/2011 when they played against Miss St. They were up by 4 points and the spread was SC -3. He told his qb to run around in their end zone to get a safety and win only by 2 points. That Spurrier is a dirty behind mofo!!! Yes, he fixes the outcome of the game in front of your eyes!!! He would even sell his own mamma if he has to!!!
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