Louisiana State at Clemson (12/31/2012)

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Author: [College Football] Topic: Louisiana State at Clemson (12/31/2012)
Covers PM Covers
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Posted: 12/2/2012 9:53:13 PM

Away:  Louisiana State [5-7 ATS]
Home:  Clemson [8-4 ATS]

Game Time: 7:30 PM
Stadium: Georgia Dome

Recent Meetings:
12/28/96 - LSU 10 vs. CLEM 7

Team Leaders:

Louisiana State:
Passing: Zach Mettenberger (2489)
Rushing: Jeremy Hill (631)
Receiving: Odell Beckham Jr. (673)

Clemson:
Passing: Tajh Boyd (3550)
Rushing: Andre Ellington (1034)
Receiving: DeAndre Hopkins (1214)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

osu200200 PM osu200200
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Posted: 12/6/2012 2:54:28 PM
line should be closer to lsu -6. I'll take them here
RedStick PM RedStick
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Posted: 12/6/2012 11:59:36 PM
LSU's defense will keep them in the game and Clemson's D won't have enough to stop LSU's ground game!

GLTA  
SportsM62 PM SportsM62
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Posted: 12/7/2012 11:56:26 AM
LSU  
royal72 PM royal72
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Posted: 12/12/2012 2:06:44 AM
Vhat are you verclemt? Clemson brings more points against a beat up LSU for the win.
Coloneljim PM Coloneljim
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Posted: 12/17/2012 7:16:49 PM

I agree Royal, Clemson catching a team that had much higher expectations than the chick-fil-a bowl. After last years 70 - 33 Orange bowl beatdown by WVU, I expect a more focused effort from the Clem Tigers on New Years Eve. Those last 3 wins by LSU vs Ole Miss, Miss St & Ark were not all that convincing. I'm might be way off on this call but I think it will be a defensive battle.

Clemson - 21                                         LSU - 17

Tigers - +3.5                                    under 58.5

Dabo rings in the New Year with a "W".

shochuman PM shochuman
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Posted: 12/19/2012 12:34:31 AM

LSU

YTD: 83-60-1 (58%)

imaxfli PM imaxfli
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Posted: 12/28/2012 11:11:57 AM
Lsu handled Johnny Football...and after watching Clemson have nothing in last years bowl and a defense that couldn't get SC off the field late this yaer, you gotta think a fired up LSU D and running game can win this game by at least a TD!
LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 12/29/2012 12:30:50 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Coloneljim:

I agree Royal, Clemson catching a team that had much higher expectations than the chick-fil-a bowl. After last years 70 - 33 Orange bowl beatdown by WVU, I expect a more focused effort from the Clem Tigers on New Years Eve. Those last 3 wins by LSU vs Ole Miss, Miss St & Ark were not all that convincing. I'm might be way off on this call but I think it will be a defensive battle.

Clemson - 21                                         LSU - 17

Tigers - +3.5                                    under 58.5

Dabo rings in the New Year with a "W".

yes, but Col.  one team has a stout D and the other does not...that will be the difference.  LSU by 2 TD's...

Coloneljim PM Coloneljim
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Posted: 12/29/2012 6:05:08 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier:

yes, but Col.  one team has a stout D and the other does not...that will be the difference.  LSU by 2 TD's...

OK LH  I looked this one over again, and I CERTAINLY UNDERESTIMATED WHAT LSU CAN DO OFFENSIVELY TO THE TIGERS. Theyr'e just too good for Clemson. Motivation won't even help the Tigers in this one. If Boston College & Georgia Tech can put up 31 on Clemson there's no reason Lsu couldn't too. I'm changing it up

LSU - 31                                            Clemson - 21

Tigers -6                                   under 58.5

Thanks for helping me see the  LH. Only Miles & Mettenberger can cost me this victory.

LSU - UNDER

LonghornHoosier PM LonghornHoosier
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Posted: 12/29/2012 7:21:03 PM
col - just my opinion, bro.  I hope it works out for you.  GL
fan1ranger PM fan1ranger
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Posted: 12/29/2012 8:49:22 PM

Guys,I'm kinda tired of hearing about LSU's defense & the SEC.

Just because they have a great defense,does not guarantee victory.

Remember,you need to score points to win the game,and LSU don;t have the greatest offense in college football.

As a matter of fact,except for Tennesee(They suck),and Texas A&M

(who came from the Big 12),there is no SEC team ranked in the top 25  on the offense.

So what does that tell me,well,that all these SEC teams are great

on defense,because they have no offense.

So.with that being said,I am taking Clemson with the nations 9th ranked offense,and wagering big time on them.

I believe Clemson is going to put a behind kicking on LSU 

 

SportsPredictor PM SportsPredictor
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Posted: 12/30/2012 8:43:06 AM

Caution on All Remaining Bowl Games!

Must use great caution on all remaining "Bowl" games.  Oregon State throwing footballs directly into the hands (three times) of enemy players only ten yards away...TCU fumbling footballs on two yard lines...yesterday's game of a team "fumbling" footballs twice on the ONE YARD line...and Duke covering 10 point spread and has "sudden fumbles" allowing Cincinnati to cover the spread with 2 minutes in game!

And many, many "flags" even noticed by the TV commentators as "false flags".  None of these type of incidents in regular season play!  Only in muti-million dollar Bowl Games with Vegas in total control!  Many sports bettors must be noticing these "sudden" turn arounds in the bowl games.

Can't be "sour grapes" as I've been on the winning side of a few of these "disasters".  But such actions, in bowl game after bowl game, no "accidents".  Many have noticed the same, no doubt.  Must use extreme caution on all remaining bowl games...even more so with Orange Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Cotton Bowl!

Regardless of "past performances", true winner of LSU vs. Clemson, only known by a few on the field...and the big guns in Vegas.

Good Luck to All.  It will be needed!     

Macallanlover PM Macallanlover
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Posted: 12/30/2012 9:11:07 AM
QUOTE

Now that is a funny, blinders-on post fan1ranger.  The reason you hear so much about the SEC, and their ,is because it has been proven time and time again.  Your comment reflects you have some prejudice clouding your judgement.  LSU's defense is for real.  And did you ever think the opposite of your rationale about bad offenses making the defenses look good can also be true: maybe the good defenses make the offensive numbers understated?  If you think Georgia and Texas A&M don't have good offenses you know nothing about football.

LSU will limit, but not shut out, the Clemson offense.  And the LSU power running game behind a big OL will control the ball.  Mettenberg has gotten better as the year went along and the play action passes will work well as Clemson has to bring DBs up to help with run support.  The only chance Clemson has will be if LSU just doesn't show up motivated to play.

I like LSU to win, and cover.    LSU    31    Clemson  20

 

Originally Posted by fan1ranger:

Guys,I'm kinda tired of hearing about LSU's defense & the SEC.

Just because they have a great defense,does not guarantee victory.

Remember,you need to score points to win the game,and LSU don;t have the greatest offense in college football.

As a matter of fact,except for Tennesee(They suck),and Texas A&M

(who came from the Big 12),there is no SEC team ranked in the top 25  on the offense.

So what does that tell me,well,that all these SEC teams are great

on defense,because they have no offense.

So.with that being said,I am taking Clemson with the nations 9th ranked offense,and wagering big time on them.

I believe Clemson is going to put a behind kicking on LSU 

 

ncdcbag PM ncdcbag
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Posted: 12/30/2012 4:35:51 PM
I see something like Clemsons games against the Gamecocks and Seminoles going down. Clemson performed best against medicore teams this season. Liking LSU and maybe the under
binger1 PM binger1
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Posted: 12/30/2012 10:10:54 PM

I agree with ya sportspredicter........BET WITH CAUTION!! BOL ALL.

dimmer PM dimmer
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Posted: 12/30/2012 10:54:22 PM
highest posted total in an lsu game since sept 08 against north tx
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Posted: 12/30/2012 10:59:38 PM
i imagine all the remaining SEC lines are going to move based on the result of this game if lsu loses by any score or wins big
mak104 PM mak104
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Posted: 12/30/2012 11:57:57 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by ncdcbag:

I see something like Clemsons games against the Gamecocks and Seminoles going down. Clemson performed best against medicore teams this season. Liking LSU and maybe the under


Couldn't you say the same about LSU? When they went up against the big dogs (bama and fla) they lost.
combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 8:59:18 AM
The big hype in this game is SEC defense vs supposedly overmatched ACC offense.  For comparison, people are using So Caro vs LSU game and the Florida vs FSU game.  Both of those games were unique situational spots that do not apply in this games but that does not stop the squares from drawing illogical conclusions from these 2 games.  I too am looking at small sample sizes and could be making the same error in reverse.  The diff is I am not factoring this criteria into my selection decision.  I consider generalized comparisons of conference strengths to be close to worthless when evaluating individual match ups from each conference.

Without going into all the motivational details, I will just say I think the emotional edge goes to Clemson ( many reasons, all are well discussed in other posts on this board).

Consensus favors Clemson and it favors Clemson by a very significant margin ( only 29% of bettors like Clemson as of this writing on the SI consensus).  This indicator is 12 - 5 thus far in bowl season so I am weighting this very strongly for Clemson.

My scoring predictor is calling for a close game with Clemson winning late by a 32-21 margin. (not to be used for betting totals by the way ).  This indicator is hitting 57% for the bowl season thus far and it is calling for a play on Clemson as well.

The CE Diff likes LSU by a significant margin but the CE diff is hitting only 50% for the bowl season so I am discounting this one
( Proven handicappers are favoring LSU by a 17% margin over Clemson supporters).  Normally, I respect this indicator more but the bookies are killing the good handicappers thus far in bowl season.

Bottom line is a 1 unit play on Clemson - if there is any late steam on Clemson, this would become a 2 unit play.  Any steam on LSU can be ignored since this would probably be heavy public money on LSU.   Wait and bet the game later in the day because I think the best value on Clemson will be later as public money pushes the LSU number higher ( may not  happen but it might be considering how much the public looks to be in love with LSU)
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Posted: 12/31/2012 9:29:27 AM
This is true mak104, maybe I'm a little to SEC biased. This could be a good opprotunity for Clemson to correct what happened to them last year versus West Virginia
Irisheyez PM Irisheyez
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Posted: 12/31/2012 10:14:31 AM

Guys....one thing that is a historical fact over the last decade or so is that Clemson craps the bed late EVERY SEASON!!!  It is just one of those wierd trends  Every year it is the same thing in the preseason....."Well, this Clemson team is loaded with speed and a solid front 7!!  Watch out for them this year!?!?"  Then, by the end of the year, the once 6-0 and 5th ranked Tigers are now 7-4 and missed the ACC title game, yet again!!!!! 

Say what you want about LSU this year......they still have a D that will cause this sandlot football team at Clemson to garbage the bed!!  LSU is one of the best Bowl cover teams of the last last decade!!!!!  They covered in two title games.....they covered and blew out the last "resurgent" Irish team......even in their last "down" year they crushed Miami 41-3 back when the Caines could field a team of thugs.......This game is one of the better odds on cover games this bowl season.  Pound on LSU.....go with the trends and the far better coach!!

Macallanlover PM Macallanlover
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Posted: 12/31/2012 10:14:33 AM
QUOTE

So let me see if I have this right combato, we should ignore all the evidence of on the field performance over this specific year on common opponents (and the past couple of decades as well) because of a hocus pocus theory based on betting against the public?  You don't have to convince how dumb the public is, I have seen what type of government the "public" has elected for the last 40 years, but I am not going to place bets just based on what others do.  I prefer to make my own analysis.  I realize you are sold on this theory but I want more reasons beyond the betting public's mood and some conspiracy about Vegas oddsmakers.  Vegas only wants the money to balance.   

Not saying Clemson won't show up motivated to win and pull the upset, it is a bowl game after all, but the better team is LSU.  I know LSU wanted the Cotton Bowl but they have blown ACC teams out of the Chick Fil A before.  I agree some get carried away with overall conference ratings but denying the SEC's dominance against other conferences is pretty foolish to me, there is a reason they win most of these matchups, including every single one this year between the SEC and ACC.  Look at the history of this particular, this isn't the first year.  SC has beaten Clemson the last four or five, Georgia has beaten Ga Tech 11 of the last 12.  Florida blew a Top 10 FSU out in November.  Just cannot deny the facts.  Appreciate your right to choose another way to view this but I will hang my hat on what happens when the players are matched up on the field of play.  I don't think this is a huge play for me because I don't trust bowl games as much, but I am very confident LSU could beat Clemson by 3 TDs if they chose to.   

Originally Posted by combato:

The big hype in this game is SEC defense vs supposedly overmatched ACC offense.  For comparison, people are using So Caro vs LSU game and the Florida vs FSU game.  Both of those games were unique situational spots that do not apply in this games but that does not stop the squares from drawing illogical conclusions from these 2 games.  I too am looking at small sample sizes and could be making the same error in reverse.  The diff is I am not factoring this criteria into my selection decision.  I consider generalized comparisons of conference strengths to be close to worthless when evaluating individual match ups from each conference.

Without going into all the motivational details, I will just say I think the emotional edge goes to Clemson ( many reasons, all are well discussed in other posts on this board).

Consensus favors Clemson and it favors Clemson by a very significant margin ( only 29% of bettors like Clemson as of this writing on the SI consensus).  This indicator is 12 - 5 thus far in bowl season so I am weighting this very strongly for Clemson.

My scoring predictor is calling for a close game with Clemson winning late by a 32-21 margin. (not to be used for betting totals by the way ).  This indicator is hitting 57% for the bowl season thus far and it is calling for a play on Clemson as well.

The CE Diff likes LSU by a significant margin but the CE diff is hitting only 50% for the bowl season so I am discounting this one
( Proven handicappers are favoring LSU by a 17% margin over Clemson supporters).  Normally, I respect this indicator more but the bookies are killing the good handicappers thus far in bowl season.

Bottom line is a 1 unit play on Clemson - if there is any late steam on Clemson, this would become a 2 unit play.  Any steam on LSU can be ignored since this would probably be heavy public money on LSU.   Wait and bet the game later in the day because I think the best value on Clemson will be later as public money pushes the LSU number higher ( may not  happen but it might be considering how much the public looks to be in love with LSU)

combato PM combato
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Posted: 12/31/2012 11:09:12 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by Macallanlover]

An intelligent response for a change and thanks for that  Macallanlover
More of Glenn Livett man myself by hey, we apparently on other things as well.

I think you make good points and this an alternate school of handicapping that is legitimate as well.  The only real test is the long run, not any one game, so any discussion about any one game has merit on both sides.  If they play this game 50,000 times, that would be the real test ( obviously impossible ) so we are left with our own bias and pre-conceived opinions ( both of us ) I like your style and you may very well be right on this game.  The goal is to win 55% and higher than that would be wildly sucessful in the long run.  BOL to you.
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Posted: 12/31/2012 11:20:02 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by Irisheyez:

Guys....one thing that is a historical fact over the last decade or so is that Clemson craps the bed late EVERY SEASON!!!  It is just one of those wierd trends  Every year it is the same thing in the preseason....."Well, this Clemson team is loaded with speed and a solid front 7!!  Watch out for them this year!?!?"  Then, by the end of the year, the once 6-0 and 5th ranked Tigers are now 7-4 and missed the ACC title game, yet again!!!!! 


For a trend to be meaningful, you need a large enough sample to avoid being misled by randomness.  I use a minimum of 30 - 35 games before I will even consider using a trend to handicap.  Do you have any trends that fit this critera ( 30 games, win Pct of at least 55% ) ?

Say what you want about LSU this year......they still have a D that will cause this sandlot football team at Clemson to garbage the bed!!  LSU is one of the best Bowl cover teams of the last last decade!!!!!  They covered in two title games.....they covered and blew out the last "resurgent" Irish team......even in their last "down" year they crushed Miami 41-3 back when the Caines could field a team of thugs.......This game is one of the better odds on cover games this bowl season.  Pound on LSU.....go with the trends and the far better coach!!

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