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Author: [College Football] Topic: Central Florida at Ball State (12/21/2012)
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#1
Posted: 12/2/2012 9:53:12 PM

Away:  Central Florida [6-7 ATS]
Home:  Ball State [9-3 ATS]

Game Time: 7:30 PM
Stadium: Tropicana Field

Recent Meetings:
11/13/04 - CENFL 17 vs. BALST 21
11/14/98 - BALST 14 vs. CENFL 37
09/21/96 - CENFL 10 vs. BALST 31

Team Leaders:

Central Florida:
Passing: Blake Bortles (2787)
Rushing: Latavius Murray (1035)
Receiving: J.J. Worton (562)

Ball State:
Passing: Keith Wenning (2878)
Rushing: Jahwan Edwards (1321)
Receiving: Willie Snead (1070)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

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WinsNow999
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#2
Posted: 12/5/2012 8:52:55 PM
Go with the Favorite on this one!....Look too good to be true for Ball State +7......Therefore, Take the UCF to lay the wood...here
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osu200200
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#3
Posted: 12/6/2012 3:03:34 PM
the 7 pts makes it a coin flip for me
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#4
Posted: 12/8/2012 12:08:07 PM

Ball st might be losing its coach again......last time this happened a couple years ago......they got smoked in a bowl after having the best year in school history.....wait till a few days before kickoff......if their coach hasn't moved.....take the points.  This could be a springboard game for my school and carry them into next year with a committed coach......if coach splits....pound on UCF.....keep an eye on it!!

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#5
Posted: 12/11/2012 12:10:13 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by WinsNow999:

Go with the Favorite on this one!....Look too good to be true for Ball State +7......Therefore, Take the UCF to lay the wood...here
  This guy knows what he it talking about - always look to buck the sucker play
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#6
Posted: 12/12/2012 11:50:55 AM
Both teams played roughly same competition. Havent seen anything about a coach leaving. Balls st qb coming back. They can put up some points. CFL gotta be bummin that they blew that tulsa game like that. You can tell Oleary will be having fun with his drunk red face!!!! Balls ST and OV for the medium
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#7
Posted: 12/12/2012 6:43:50 PM

Yep, I'll lose my money on O'Leary and the Knights. Even though they beat a bunch of stiffs this year, they have too much firepower for the MAC Cards to handle.

UCF - 41                                         Ball St - 24

Knights -7                                  over 61.5 

This bowl indicates to me that the Knights underachieved a bit, while the Cardinals certainly overachieved. After the smoke clears the better team will prevail.

Knights - Over

 

 

 

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#8
Posted: 12/15/2012 8:23:53 PM

Ball St. small play larger fi we get some clarifacation on there injuries maybe more.

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#9
Posted: 12/17/2012 3:11:11 PM
I like Ball State here. Anyone use a handicapper service for bowl games?
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#10
Posted: 12/20/2012 9:25:33 PM
Now that we sat thru your commercial for a bogus "pro pick" site, we can move on with some betters legit opinions.I gotta lean with Winsnow and Combatto.I can't see Ball St. getting points.Something fishy here.It seems like once in a while they throw a pile of points on what should be the better team.Going the other way usually prevails.
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#11
Posted: 12/20/2012 9:30:39 PM
I want to apologize to Duke.After reading his above post, I assumed he was on of those fool looking for free advertisement.I checked some of his other posts and there's no mention of any pay places.Sorry Duke.
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#12
Posted: 12/20/2012 10:57:49 PM
Central Florida -7 
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#13
Posted: 12/21/2012 12:01:19 AM
Cardinals can score that's for sure, its their defense that worries me! 

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#14
Posted: 12/21/2012 12:03:40 AM

UCF-7 and here is why. Ball St has won its last six games out scoring the other team, their defense sucks, giving up 31 points a game against teams not neary as good as UCF. The Ball ST offense has been solid BUT their QB had surgery 2.and a half weeks ago and had just started practicing. UCF will hang 35 on them and I'm betting Ball St can't keep up. 

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#15
Posted: 12/21/2012 12:14:56 AM
Ah Christ doc all over the place. I keep flippy floppin on these games. Took und last nite last second so dont hate..goin Cfl now!
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#16
Posted: 12/21/2012 12:14:57 AM
Ah Christ doc all over the place. I keep flippy floppin on these games. Took und last nite last second so dont hate..goin Cfl now!
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#17
Posted: 12/21/2012 4:37:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by W8LIFTER:

Central Florida -7 
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#18
Posted: 12/21/2012 7:36:13 AM
To me, this looks similar to last night's game.. SDSU had a decent offense, below average defense.. BYU had a great defense, below average offense.. Typically bowl games favor defensive teams, as it takes a bit for offenses to get their timing back and clicking again.. I gotta go with the better defense in this one in UCF.. If MAC teams can put up points against you, best believe a C-USA team from Florida can.. UCF should be able to contain the Ball State offense and if they can create turnovers, will blow them out.. Another thing to consider is UCF is looking at a bowl ban next year (I think the following year as well).. I gotta believe they'll be up for this game, knowing they won't be going to a bowl next year..

Feel free to buy the hook to get it to -6.5, but I don't think you'll need it..

UCF -7 for me.. Best of luck guys
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#19
Posted: 12/21/2012 9:33:32 AM
Very grateful and big thanks to oahuboy808, and also to lordzud !!

You two guys build a very strong case with powerful prognostic facts.




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#20
Posted: 12/21/2012 10:52:39 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by W8LIFTER:

Central Florida -7 


Agreed…  Different competition level…  Ball State won’t be able to move the ball up and down the field like they do against MAC competition and the Knights should be able to get their run game going to the tune of 200+ yards tonight against that porous Ball State defense…  Central Florida should control the tempo of this game from kickoff to the final whistle…

 

With that said, put me down for Central Florida minus the touchdown for a Nickel Alex Trebek please.  Thanks! 


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#21
Posted: 12/21/2012 11:30:40 AM
Quite honestly I used to be another covers square talking out my a-hole. And I still would be IF I relied on my opinion. But  now I pretty much follow the lead of a couple guys whom give free picks and have established records and facts that back up that they do know what they are talking about.  everybody. Can't plug who it is cuz that's a no no round here and I respect the site enough to abide by its rules. Seems to me it is better to be humble and admit what you don't know, The world would be a whole lot better place with a bit more of that.
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#22
Posted: 12/21/2012 12:45:58 PM

Central Florida has a good RB and ball st is 106 in run D and 86 or so in total D. Long drives keeps ball st off the field.

CENTRAL FLORIDA -71/2

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#23
Posted: 12/21/2012 2:49:22 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by oahuboy808:

To me, this looks similar to last night's game.. SDSU had a decent offense, below average defense.. BYU had a great defense, below average offense.. Typically bowl games favor defensive teams, as it takes a bit for offenses to get their timing back and clicking again.. I gotta go with the better defense in this one in UCF.. If MAC teams can put up points against you, best believe a C-USA team from Florida can.. UCF should be able to contain the Ball State offense and if they can create turnovers, will blow them out.. Another thing to consider is UCF is looking at a bowl ban next year (I think the following year as well).. I gotta believe they'll be up for this game, knowing they won't be going to a bowl next year..

Feel free to buy the hook to get it to -6.5, but I don't think you'll need it..

UCF -7 for me.. Best of luck guys

Thanks for the motivation angle for Central Florida - but DOUBT the kids are thinking about NEXT year. They're STILL thinking about how they blew the C-USA championship... and lost to Tulsa TWICE. ---> This is a garbage bowl game for them when they had MUCH bigger aspirations.

Ball State has never won a bowl game. So their motivation will be Sky High. ... They aren't playing a well-coached BYU team, either. This George - what the heck is going on out there - O'Leary for god sakes!

Ball State +7 for me.

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#24
Posted: 12/21/2012 3:32:41 PM

This crap about motivation is silly! How do you measure motivation? Are you basing it upon quotes from players, coaches and fans? So none of the Central Florida players are going to be motivated for this game? It sucks to lose twice to the same team, but the Tulsa loss was weeks ago!

-Central Florida: has a better defensive and we know that defenses are usually ahead in bowl games and the first game of the year; good running back; good trio of receivers; at "home" (low fan support expected).

-Ball State: defense not very good; Wenning playing after surgery on his ankle; good running back; quick little receiver; students complaining about ticket prices (low fan support expected).

If Ball State jumps on Central Florida before halftime, I expect Central Florida to rally/wake-up/"find motivation" in the 2nd half and get the win. Both teams will be motivated and Ball State will try some sneak thievery plays, but I expect Central Florida to tighten up the defense:

Central Florida: 37

Ball State: 21

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#25
Posted: 12/21/2012 4:04:55 PM
A lousy 1 -2 start to the bowl season thus far but here are my criteria for tonight's bowl game

1.  My modified scoring indicator makes Ball a 1 pt pick ( 35-34 over UCF ) which means a play on Ball St.

2.  Points per yard model makes UCF a -7   pt fav which means no play from this indicator.

3.  Parlay bettors are split on this game which indicates a lack of a square consensus to go against. Hence no play called for from this indicator. 52% parlays on Ball, 48% on UCF.  No edge either way.

4.  My sharp / square money line indicator calls for a point spread play on Ball at +7.

2 of 4 indicators point to Ball, while the other 2 are neutral.  I will be playing Ball for a 2 unit play ( based on a unit range from1 to 4).
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