Posted: 12/1/2012 8:24:00 AM
Originally Posted by Macallanlover:
I don't take the bet based on those comments or talking heads, I have been known to do research, like this:
Although your stats about Richt and Georgia are correct, they're slightly skewed. Mark Richt is 2-3 against Saban and 3-1 against Alabama, but since Saban took the 'Bama job (2007), Richt is 1-1 in both aspects. He won @ 'Bama in '07 in OT, Saban's first year there. In '08 he lost to Saban @ home 41-30. That's the last time they've played. Neither team has any players left from those games on the roster...
Yes, Richt and Georgia is appearing in the SEC Title game for the 5th time in 12 years:
2002 - Won SEC title over Arkansas
2003 - Lost SEC title to LSU
2005 - Won SEC title over LSU
2011 - Lost SEC title to LSU
In other words, they haven't won the SEC title since 2005. Although Alabama has only won it once since Richt has been at Georgia, it was under Saban (2009). The only team from the SEC East to win it since Georgia in 2005 was Florida in 2006 and 2008. The tougher half of the SEC recently has been the SEC West, and the West has won the last three by an average of 30 points!
The schedules are not that even either. No, Alabama didn't play Florida or South Carolina, but they did play Michigan, Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M, all ranked in the Top 15, and went 3-1. Up until last week, Georgia's schedule of opponent's had an overall combined record of 52-58 (After I threw out Georgia Southern, an FCS school with an 8-3 record) which included Tennessee, Kentucky, and Auburn who combined for an 0-21 SEC Conference record, in which Georgia struggled with both Tennessee 51-44 and Kentucky 29-24. They did find a way to win, but those are games that they should win soundly.
Last, I looked at the QB play of both against quality opponents. Being that Georgia only played 2 ranked teams this season, I added last years SEC title game for Georgia (Goes with the big game theory) and the National Championship game for Alabama. Without going on any longer, I'll just give you the numbers for both QB's:
Murray: 1 Win, 2 Loss - 39/95 (41%) 422 yds (140.67 avg.), 2 TD, 6 INT
2011 vs. LSU (SEC Ch.) 16/40, 163 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
2012 vs. So. Caro. 11/31, 109 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT
2012 vs. Fla. 12/24, 150 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT
McCarron: 4 Win, 1 Loss - 85/139 (61%) 1115 yds (223 avg.) 6 TD, 2 INT
2011 vs. LSU (NC) 23/34, 234 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
2012 vs. Michigan 11/21, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2012 vs. Miss. St. 16/23, 208 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT
2012 vs. LSU 14/27, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT
2012 vs. TX A&M, 21/34, 309 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT
I don't follow talking heads, I do however read a lot of people's input to get different insight on why people make the betting decisions they do, there are a lot of different angles to take into consideration like the ones you stated. I'm sure most people just throw $hit out there on a message board with no rhyme or reason, but not all people on here are "squares". When posting on here, I don't throw in all the statistics and info I did now just because it takes so much damn time, I keep it simple, I don't try to sell picks. I'm not 100% on all my picks, but I'm comfortably over the 52.5% magic number. I don't knock you for taking Georgia, I was just giving you the reasons why I have an opinion about their scheduling, coaching, QB, etc.
Good luck to you and everyone else on Covers!