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Author: [College Football] Topic: Alabama at Georgia (12/01/2012)
phil5121 send a private message View Space | Friends | Playbook |
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#26
Posted: 11/30/2012 3:34:26 PM
Perfect spot to buy half a point for Georgia +8.  Not any reason to believe this game will be decided by more than a touchdown.  Both defenses feature primetime Sunday playmakers.  yeldon and lacey are a pretty nasty 1-2 punch.  McCarron has yet to light up the stat sheet but you know bama will score 21+.  Murray, although undersized, has certainly proven to us that hes capable of scoring points in bunches.

Once again, these teams have great defenses.  We are all well aware of this... Im over hearing Richt will do something stupid to cost his team or that Saban will pull some heroic coaching move to outsmart the bulldogs.  The players are on the field.  Big time SEC and NFL READY football players.   In the end, wouldnt u want the team who has the edge in offensive firepower who happens to be getting 7.5 pts?

Big time statement game for Bulldog Nation.  UGA plus the points for the LARGE.

Prediction:  Bulldogs 28 Alabama 30
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#27
Posted: 11/30/2012 5:30:41 PM

ALABAMA

YTD: 66-49-1 (57.4%)

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MajorCheeze
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#28
Posted: 11/30/2012 7:55:12 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by phil5121:

Perfect spot to buy half a point for Georgia +8.  Not any reason to believe this game will be decided by more than a touchdown.  Both defenses feature primetime Sunday playmakers.  yeldon and lacey are a pretty nasty 1-2 punch.  McCarron has yet to light up the stat sheet but you know bama will score 21+.  Murray, although undersized, has certainly proven to us that hes capable of scoring points in bunches.

Once again, these teams have great defenses.  We are all well aware of this... Im over hearing Richt will do something stupid to cost his team or that Saban will pull some heroic coaching move to outsmart the bulldogs.  The players are on the field.  Big time SEC and NFL READY football players.   In the end, wouldnt u want the team who has the edge in offensive firepower who happens to be getting 7.5 pts?

Big time statement game for Bulldog Nation.  UGA plus the points for the LARGE.

Prediction:  Bulldogs 28 Alabama 30

You are a horrible gambler. Who would buy a half point to go from 7.5 to 8. Do you know the odds of that making a difference in your bet. However, the odds of you losing are about half and then you will pay your bookie more juice for making a bonehead move to buy a half a point. 
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#29
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:10:17 AM
QUOTE

Good for you, taking Alabama isn't a terrible decision, I see it the other way but the line has stayed pretty stable so the split is pretty even.  But don't take that bet based on your comments. 

Mark Richt is 2-3 against Saban, has the 5th winningest record in CFB, is 3-1 against Alabama, and is 4-1 against the defending national champions of the prior year.  He has done this coaching in the SEC during the past 12 years when the conference has been pretty loaded.  The UGA schedule is rated the 42nd toughest, and will go up tomorrow as they play their 3rd Top 10 team this year.  This is UGA's 5th appearance in the SECCG in his 12 years, and he has won two SEC title games (Alabama has one SEC title in that same time.)  This may be the 5th time Georgia has finished ranked in the Top 10 in those 12 years and 8 times they have won 10 or more games.  Schedules for both UGA and Alabama were similar, UGA didn't play LSU, A&M, or Bama in the West, and Bama didn't play Georgia, Florida, or SC in the East.   Neither team has anything to do with conference rotation, but they can't avoid each other tomorrow. 

So the soft schedule meme is just BS, this is the SEC, it is never a cakewalk and to think so is silly.  And this man can't win big games?  That is an example of your thinking or some talking head who also did no research.?

Alabama is a solid team on both sides of the ball, it would be no surprise if they win, but it looks too close to give a TD to either team.  I am taking the points, and a ML bet on the upset.  Good luck to all

 

 

Originally Posted by Chiefan34:

I posted up a week ago about Georgia and their soft schedule this year. With the exception of beating an offensively inept Florida team and being sodimized by South Carolina, they've done little to impress. I would also have more faith in Georgia if they had a better head coach. Mark Richt is not a big game coach, and definitely not one I can put money on. Alabama has played the tougher schedule, they have the better coach, and a QB that has proven to win when it counts. I'm going to take Alabama -7 and nothing more than -7. GLTA

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#30
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:20:35 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by QMICH:

WE ATE AT A RESTAURANT LAST NIGHT WHERE THE STEAKS WERE HIGH


OMG best post of the thread! I was thinking of something just as witty to say before I scrolled down to this. Bravo my friend... 
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#31
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:22:05 AM
There won't be any "steak" served at this game, therefore, my "stake" is in BAMA -7 
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#32
Posted: 12/1/2012 1:01:50 AM
GEORGIA + 8    UNDER 51

Im Teasing GEO (+14 1/2) to (+21 1/2)  with ARK St (-2) to (+4)

posted in ark st thread...

in this game i think the gameplans will be conservative in general.. with both coaching TRUSTING thier defenses... and in this case i think both defenses will perform well.. a close game i think will lean toward georgia and the under...
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#33
Posted: 12/1/2012 1:36:27 AM
Georgia win straight up Texas am beat bama why not Georgia at home. Take the point with the money so far last night under dog got the money. Good luck every body.
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#34
Posted: 12/1/2012 4:49:41 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Do they travel for hamburger too?

Glad that caught someone else's attention too. How are you supposed to take someone seriously that doesn't know the difference between a friggin steak from a cow and stakes? Jesus.

 

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#35
Posted: 12/1/2012 4:52:57 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by MajorCheeze:


You are a horrible gambler. Who would buy a half point to go from 7.5 to 8. Do you know the odds of that making a difference in your bet. However, the odds of you losing are about half and then you will pay your bookie more juice for making a bonehead move to buy a half a point. 

Actually, I think a worse bettor would be somone who is such a homer that it clouds their visison and they can't make any kind of objective bet because they're such a sucker for their honky-behind local team. Why don't you take your homer bullshit somewhere else and let people who don't have all kinds of personal agendas post their objective viewpoint, ok there Tide Tommy? 

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#36
Posted: 12/1/2012 5:11:30 AM
[Quote: Originally Posted by LonghornHoosier]

I think the talent differential is nominal...UGA D may be a bit better which is loaded with 1st and 2nd day draft picks...

the difference will be the coaching...Richt will find a way to F it up for UGA

Bama -7.5

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#37
Posted: 12/1/2012 8:24:00 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Macallanlover:

I don't take the bet based on those comments or talking heads, I have been known to do research, like this:

Although your stats about Richt and Georgia are correct, they're slightly skewed. Mark Richt is 2-3 against Saban and 3-1 against Alabama, but since Saban took the 'Bama job (2007), Richt is 1-1 in both aspects. He won @ 'Bama in '07 in OT, Saban's first year there. In '08 he lost to Saban @ home 41-30. That's the last time they've played. Neither team has any players left from those games on the roster...

Yes, Richt and Georgia is appearing in the SEC Title game for the 5th time in 12 years:

2002 - Won SEC title over Arkansas

2003 - Lost SEC title to LSU

2005 - Won SEC title over LSU

2011 - Lost SEC title to LSU

In other words, they haven't won the SEC title since 2005. Although Alabama has only won it once since Richt has been at Georgia, it was under Saban (2009). The only team from the SEC East to win it since Georgia in 2005 was Florida in 2006 and 2008. The tougher half of the SEC recently has been the SEC West, and the West has won the last three by an average of 30 points!

The schedules are not that even either. No, Alabama didn't play Florida or South Carolina, but they did play Michigan, Mississippi State, LSU, and Texas A&M, all ranked in the Top 15, and went 3-1. Up until last week, Georgia's schedule of opponent's had an overall combined record of 52-58 (After I threw out Georgia Southern, an FCS school with an 8-3 record) which included Tennessee, Kentucky, and Auburn who combined for an 0-21 SEC Conference record, in which Georgia struggled with both Tennessee 51-44 and Kentucky 29-24. They did find a way to win, but those are games that they should win soundly.

Last, I looked at the QB play of both against quality opponents. Being that Georgia only played 2 ranked teams this season, I added last years SEC title game for Georgia (Goes with the big game theory) and the National Championship game for Alabama. Without going on any longer, I'll just give you the numbers for both QB's:

Murray: 1 Win, 2 Loss - 39/95 (41%) 422 yds (140.67 avg.), 2 TD, 6 INT

2011 vs. LSU (SEC Ch.) 16/40, 163 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

2012 vs. So. Caro. 11/31, 109 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT

2012 vs. Fla. 12/24, 150 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT

McCarron: 4 Win, 1 Loss - 85/139 (61%) 1115 yds (223 avg.) 6 TD, 2 INT

2011 vs. LSU (NC) 23/34, 234 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT

2012 vs. Michigan 11/21, 199 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2012 vs. Miss. St. 16/23, 208 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT

2012 vs. LSU 14/27, 165 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT

2012 vs. TX A&M, 21/34, 309 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT

I don't follow talking heads, I do however read a lot of people's input to get different insight on why people make the betting decisions they do, there are a lot of different angles to take into consideration like the ones you stated. I'm sure most people just throw $hit out there on a message board with no rhyme or reason, but not all people on here are "squares". When posting on here, I don't throw in all the statistics and info I did now just because it takes so much damn time, I keep it simple, I don't try to sell picks. I'm not 100% on all my picks, but I'm comfortably over the 52.5% magic number. I don't knock you for taking Georgia, I was just giving you the reasons why I have an opinion about their scheduling, coaching, QB, etc.

Good luck to you and everyone else on Covers!

 

 

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#38
Posted: 12/1/2012 8:55:41 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by BloodyShredder:

Do they travel for hamburger too?

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Chiefan34
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#39
Posted: 12/1/2012 9:18:34 AM

I tried to play poker last night at the Palms for high "steaks" and got kicked out.....

 

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#40
Posted: 12/1/2012 9:48:36 AM
Still like Bama here !  You guys better get this, this isn't even close to a home game for Georgia ! 
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#41
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:14:05 AM
Is everybody missing the value  on the under here. Last time  Alabama played great defense with LSU game was like 17-14 What do you guys keep yelling  about these great defenses and handicapping the score at 25 - 30 or whatever

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#42
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:22:10 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by havenrab:

Is everybody missing the value  on the under here. Last time  Alabama played great defense with LSU game was like 17-14 What do you guys keep yelling  about these great defenses and handicapping the score at 25 - 30 or whatever

Maybe because Alabama is playing Georgia, not LSU

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#43
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:33:05 AM
QUOTE Originally Posted by havenrab:

Is everybody missing the value  on the under here. Last time  Alabama played great defense with LSU game was like 17-14 What do you guys keep yelling  about these great defenses and handicapping the score at 25 - 30 or whatever

Not trying to be a d!ck, but maybe people don't feel comfortable taking the under. Georgia has played decent defense, but has given up points in a few games (Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina), Alabama has given up 14 or less in 10 of 12 games, including 6 games of 7 or less points. If Georgia's offense is that good, they're going to score. I don't believe their defense is good enough to keep Alabama under 27 points. If you feel strongly about it, pound the under my friend, I wish you luck. Maybe people have info that backs betting the spread rather than the total. Good luck!

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#44
Posted: 12/1/2012 10:48:46 AM
Georgia +7.5
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#45
Posted: 12/1/2012 11:27:44 AM
Look for Georgia to spread the offense and get the tide def.in  space(Texas A&M),also look for Murray to run if he does not have anything down field.This is the biggest game for the dawgs and they will leave it all on the field today.If the Tide can rattle Murray(mr nervous feet in big games),then Georgia will get buried.Bama is NOT the same team it was last year and they can be had,that depends largely on how Murray plays,but Im getting 8.5,so its Georgia +8.5.
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#46
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:07:13 PM
Alabama -8
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#47
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:11:44 PM
This should be downrite smashmouth football. I expect both squads to bring their a-game.

still think Bama's gonna get thru this but,they will have to earn it like they did with LSU.

taking the bulldogs to cover da pts though.

cheers all !
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#48
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:12:45 PM
Let's get it. On the w8 train. Got it at -7 
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#49
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:20:38 PM
Bama wants it but Georgia wants it more. Taking the points
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#50
Posted: 12/1/2012 12:44:06 PM
Georgia will win this game.
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