Oklahoma State at Texas (11/13/2010)

Away:  Oklahoma State [7-2 ATS]
Home:  Texas [2-7 ATS]

Game Time: 8:00 PM
Stadium: Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium

Recent Meetings:
10/31/09 - TEXAS 41 vs. OKLST 14
10/25/08 - OKLST 24 vs. TEXAS 28
11/03/07 - TEXAS 38 vs. OKLST 35

Team Leaders:

Oklahoma State:
Passing: Brandon Weeden (2982)
Rushing: Kendall Hunter (1240)
Receiving: Justin Blackmon (1285)

Texas:
Passing: Garrett Gilbert (2060)
Rushing: Foswhitt Whittaker (299)
Receiving: James Kirkendoll (461)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

Vegas has lost their f'n mind on this line.  Texas fan here and am not bitter when looking at this game, just have seen both teams play several times this year.  I would have pounded Oklahoma St. at anything lower than 14.5.  Minus 6.5???   Are you completely kidding me?  Thank you.  Thank you.  Thank you.

Biggest bet of year for me.  Oklahoma St. is almost unstoppable on offense with tremendous balance.  Their superstar wide receiver is almost uncoverable game after game.  The guy never gets tired and is a beast.  I know for a fact he alone will give Texas fits all day.  And unfortunately they have a complete offense to go with him.

And lately OSU has been firming up on defense much more than earlier in year.  Combine that with a Texas offense in complete disarray that can't even move the ball on the nation's last run defense in KSU.  And even when Texas moves the ball they can't protect it for long.

I'm telling you right now this is a mismatch as good as it gets with a very low line.  OSU has everything to play for and Texas has mailed it in.  Once they get down early their will is broken and the floodgates open.  This one will get very ugly very fast.  I still have no clue what the hell Vegas is thinking...because it sure isn't football production and analysis that resulted in this line.

Okla St. HUGE    And notice I never once said 'lock'...and still won't.  Thems the rules!   lol

OSU defense is better than people think. Not world beaters but good enuf to keep UT down.  How this is less than a TD is beyond me.

Books have been making a killing on UT for the last year.  2-10 I believe ATS last 12.  People are finally wise and should pound this line up.  If it doesn't move, be careful.

I was expecting to see this line skyrocket to 9 by the end of the week, and at least hit 7 in some books today.  Now I'm seeing it at 6 and even 5.5 at some books.  I refuse to back off now just because this looks insanely fishy.  I said it to myself 2 weeks back or so...Okla St. will demolish my horns and score all day...no way we can keep pace.   And now after watching 2 weeks of even further dismay across the board with my Horns.  I'm not passing this gift up...not a chance in hell.  Just like I was certain my Cowboys had completely mailed it in before last night's game.  I was gonna pound GB on anything under 14.  When I saw 7 I couldn't get the bet down fast enough.  Exact same situation.  And it's only two times I've felt this way on a bet all year.  Dallas had mailed it in and matched up poorly all over the place with GB.  Texas is the exact same in this game.  And trust me, no team in America will refuse to kick the teeth out of the Horns or Cowboys when we are down.  No one will ever pass that chance.  And GB sure as hell didn't care Dallas was 1-6 did they?   You think OSU will give a damn Texas is in the basement after what we have put them through?  lol  

This is NOT the same two teams from the past.  I've seen all of those games between these schools since Big12 began, and attended all in Austin.  The mystique of the past will not apply here...two different animals completely.

Agreed.  Not to mention, Okie St. has had some very hard knock losses to Texas over the last several years; they would love to pay UT back and will run it up as much as possible.  I am taking OK ST, 1H, Game, and 2H.

The Big 12's "Kick UT While It's Down" tour will continue for at least one more week.

The only reason I can see that the line is not more is that Texas has out gained every opponent this year and has very highly recruited players who just might show up if the ball bounces the right way - a little momentum, a little belief.  Still, I think this team is done.  Time to start McCoy junior.

And I don't read too much into Texas's win at Nebraska, Nebraska clearly played tight that game as they wanted it too much.  Won't happen here, UT Is doubting itself now.

ECHELON1  i hear you but i would tread lightly my friend,,this okie st. squad has been hot but they did come out flat a few weeks ago vs ULL ON a friday night before pulling away late.. plus TEXAS will have to hear how bad this team sucks all week long..plus they will be a home dog..maybe mack brings back the magic this week ..sometimes vegas and the OFFSHORE BOOKS no things that we don;t...and i am going with the sombody...okie st may excape with the win but i will take the points ...okie st  31-28....

tex+6.5 all day long for me.im taking the horns as the home dog....f@#k it!

OK St all the way

Line down to -5.5.  WTF?

LOL.

I like Okla St but probably won't bet it.

A lot of Big 12 teams that should have ROLLED on the road as light chalk have been going down left and right.

Shit, look at NEB BARELY squeeking one out at IOWA ST.

That said, Texas is NOT GOOD this year and SHOULD LOSE by DD.

But in the Big 12.  Who knows???

Oklahoma same way last week, ozzwald.  Heavy action on them at -3 at A&M and they flame.

Texas as a team has rushed for 1,265 yards.  Kendall Hunter has 1,240 by himself.

Cowboys by at least 3 touchdowns, they won't let off of the gas....

Look at the common opponents: Home against Baylor - OSU +27, Texas -8; at Kansas St. - OSU +10, Texas -25; at Texas Tech - OSU +17, Texas +10. The only exception is Nebraska, who Texas beat on the road and Oklahoma St. lost to at home. Texas could show up like they did against Nebraska and beat OSU at home but, based on the other common opponents and how Texas has played of late at home, I do not see it happening. Texas keeps it close, but OSU wins by 10.

lol i don't think you watched the nebraska game then. nebraska took numerous shots down the field...

 looking at common opponents is never the way to go. Texas gets owned by KSU almost every time they play. Pretty sure OSU does not. So in previous years when Texas lost to KSU and OSU beat KSU, you would have said take OSU... fact is that Texas has owned OSU in the past. 

I still like OSU here unless Texas makes a QB change, but it definitely isn't because of common opponents. 

I am solidly on Oklahoma State.  Texas struggling in all facets of their offense.  Look at the monster points OSU puts up.  The only game they had points in the 20's their stud WR was suspended one game.  Texas will NOT be able to keep up with OSU points scored.  BTW..TX starting CB out with broken arm.. Secondary switching to new positions.  CB coming off concussion to match up with OSU WR.. OMG TX in trouble.  Fozzy coming back in at RB nursing a stinger to replace injured TX starting RB...WOW...

Not a chance I will tread lightly on such a rare gift of a line.  I know this Texas team extremely well for last 15 years.  Am a huge Horns fan and still support my team each and every week.  I just know without a doubt this game is a complete and total mismatch.  Okie St. could go down at 14 by half and I'd still lay the money on them to win.  That offense is brutal, and one thing I have noticed when I watch them is they do not sit on leads very much.  They run the same agressive, fast paced offense up by 3 TD's as they did to start. 

And if you truly are aware of the misery Texas has put OSU through (namely the huge, heartbreaking comebacks) over the last decade you'd understand OSU coming out flat has very little chance here.  Just like Dallas...nobody cares that Texas is down...everyone wants to kick them as much as possible while they can. 

Add to it Chykie Brown out at corner (although he was very inconsistent) and Aaron Williams just coming back after his time off from concussion, Texas is even more outgunned when OSU goes to the air.  And they do so as well as anyone in the nation.  Any 3rd down they absolutely need in this game, Blackmon will get it with ease.   Rob the bank while you can, this is a great play.  I hate preaching so much about one play because it usually leads to bad things...but this is the exception for me.  Good luck to all.

echelon1 i understand where you are coming from and yes i  am aware of the woodshed beating that the horns have put on okie state over the years..one that comes to mind is the vince young comeback in 04 or 05 when he had like a 75 yard  TD run up the sideline,,i think the final score was 49-28..texas at home,,having to here how bad they have been this season..plus DC muschamp one of the best in the bussiness shut down cornhushers high-powered O that also runs the read option type O..LINE not moving much..somebody out there knows something we don;t and sometime you gotta go with that somebody.....GL E1.......

Think we might be reading too much into Big 12 play this year.  NU's close game against Iowa State is no shocker, with a third-string QB and strong winds, the Clones could safely rule out the pass.  Texas A&M's QB change clearly worked.  Less 3-and-outs on offense = more scoring and better defensive production.  Oklahoma's D is bad.  Has been all year.

Nebraska didn't need any help from Texas to lose that game.  Multiple dropped TD passes was a reminder of the Iowa State game last year with the rediculous amount of fumbles.

Oklahoma state has one of the most prolific offenses this year.  Extremely well balanced and loaded with talent.  Their defense practically doesn't exist, though.  Curiously enough, their best defensive games have come on the road...

Texas has only played one good game the last 2 months, and strangely enough it was against Nebraska.  After a bye week.  And they scored 20 points against a Husker D that allowed 41 against OSU.  I didn't see any glaring problems with the NU D for the Oklahoma State game (can't say the same about the Iowa State game), but I saw a Cowboy offense that could really make plays.

Less than 1 TD here seems like a gift, and as screwy as it looks, I'll take it.  Texas will be playing Texas aTm at the end of the season to see if they can get bowl eligible.

OK St -5.5

I wholeheartedly agree with echelon1.  OkSt is on fire this year, and Texas has lost all ability to try (let alone win).  I've just very worried about the low line open and the movement thus far.  Should be OkSt by 2 TD's, if not 3.  Plus, Texas is 1-3 at home, so home field advantage is actually a disadvantage for them this year.

Stoltz, I agree about the line open and movement.  I jumped on it Monday as fast as possible assuming I'd see 6.5 hit 7 by that evening.  I was puzzled when it hit 6 and am floored enough money has come in to bring to 5.5.  The absolute only possible thing I can come up with is people are relying very heavily on past history.  And I for one am a person who definitely weighs that in when analyzing a matchup.  Many a time I've seen bad teams play good teams close, just simply because they always do with that team. 

But in this case I just can't do one breakdown of players/units between these teams that would sway me toward my Horns...not offense, defense, or special teams.   Texas just does not score points no matter who they play.  We've faced awful defenses in Iowa St. and Kansas St. and made them look like top 10 units.  We couldn't score a damn point in those games until the 4th qtr. 

Conversely, nobody stops this Okla. St, offense...and especially not when the other offense is giving them tons of chances.  When I watch teams in Texas' conference I always do mental matchups of that team against Texas while they play another opponent.  And each time I saw Okla St. I continuously thought we are gonna have major problems stopping this balance and fast-paced attack.  You focus on run, you're getting nailed in the air.  You back off and play pass and Hunter is gonna make you pay.  

Even if Okla St. has an off day on offense and scores 30...I still can't see Texas scoring 24...we just don't anymore against anyone.  No matter how easy we move the ball, we bog down all the time in the red zone.   But I guarantee you they score more than 30 easy with the short fields they will see...and Texas may pick it up some but won't be within 10.  Every really bad loss this year (UCLA, Iowa St., Kansas St.) once the team jumped on us early the wind went right out the sails.  And if any team is gonna beat you down early and score, and the keep the foot on the gas while you try to figure out your offense, it's this Cowboys team.

I'd definitely like to see some late money come in Saturday and bump up the line some though to feel better.  Either way, I feel great with the wager.

ECHELON1   texas defense is still top 5 in total defense in the nation and okie state as not beat texas in austin since 1944..this texas D held the cornhushers to 6 points in LINCOLN ..and that was a late score in the last minutes...look for the texas D at home to keep them close..3 point game either way,,,31-28 or 27-24 type score....GLE1.........

Very well spoken. Capping the Big 12 is a hazzard in itself!

OKLAHOMA STATE  -   5   (I THINK?)

Vegas is tryin to lead bettors to believe that texas will be somewhat competetive in this spot/It is the classic trap game they build up their hotels with.The line has gone down because they are trying to get as much cash on texas as possible...OK ST  by 2 tds