Penn State at Michigan (10/24/2009)

Away:  Penn State [3-4 ATS]
Home:  Michigan [5-2 ATS]

Game Time: 3:30 PM
Stadium: Michigan Stadium

Recent Meetings:
10/18/08 - MICH 17 vs. PENST 46
09/22/07 - PENST 9 vs. MICH 14
10/14/06 - MICH 17 vs. PENST 10

Team Leaders:

Penn State:
Passing: Daryll Clark (1654)
Rushing: Evan Royster (643)
Receiving: Derek Moye (472)

Michigan:
Passing: Tate Forcier (1027)
Rushing: Carlos Brown (335)
Receiving: Martavious Odoms (238)

More:
Live Odds
In-Depth Matchup Information
Consensus Betting Information

Penn St -5

This line is low at 4.5 -- I bet it goes to 7 or beyond by game time.  Glad to give away 4.5 for this one.   Lions will eat em up.

Michigan is not only going to cover, they're going to win by a TD at least.

Michigan is coming off a de facto bye; Penn State's O-line is an atrocity; Penn State played one good team all year and lost by 10 at home (against the same D that Michigan did well against on the road); and Michigan is playing at home for the start of the second half of the season.  Brandon Graham is going to have a field day in the back field of PSU and a healthy Brandon Minor will bulldoze for 130+.

28-17 Michigan

Thank god there are people like you who will keep this line from skyrocketing.   Yeah they played one good team all year and after next week it will still be only one good team. 

Great analysis.  "Lions will eat em up."  And why is that?  Your O-line will get exposed just like OSU's did last week against Purdue.  Fact.

Someone needs to learn the difference between a fact and an opinion.  Stay tuned, it will be obvious by 7 pm Saturday.

Here's a fact fer ya -- according to Wikipedia, the wolverine is a member of the weasel family.

The wolverine (Gulo gulo), also referred to as a glutton and occasionally as a carcajou, skunk bear, quickhatch, or gulon, is the largest land-dwelling species of the Mustelidae (weasel) family in the genus Gulo (Latin: "glutton").

Now back to opinions -- it is my opinion that PSU will cover this one and win by double digits.  UM will likely start strong and be the first team to score a TD on PSU in the first half all year.  But the 2nd half is a different story with the PSU defense taking over. 

Wow, by the tone of your taxonomy lesson it seems as if someone is a little bitter.  Let me guess, you're a Penn State fan?  The nine straight years of getting slapped around like a red-headed step child has you think thinking a little irrationally. 

Tell me this.  You really think PSU is going to come to the Big House, where they absolutely never win, and walk out victorious?  Your Defense actually has to play an Offense with a pulse, on the road.  This isn't Eastern Illinois and it sure as hell isn't Illinois. 

Your dreams will be shattered in Michigan Stadium yet again. 

Thanks Danstyk for pointing me to the right direction last week Under Penn St game. Thanks for the weather update , I manage to push taking Minn +17 ,  Under 46  .. BOL this week. I really like Penn St to dominate this game as well..

Thanks Phan, good luck this week as well.   I don't know about the total this week, but my hunch is it may go over.  I'm not planning on playing the total.   If that changes I'll post here later.

nyumich -- to answer your question, yes.  I hope you enjoy reveling in the pre-DickRod past, and rewinding your DVR to watch the win over Delaware State.  I was at this game last year, and the slapping around was pretty one-sided as PSU covered a spread of 24.5 easily.  I'm looking forward to another convincing win, with a slightly more modest point differential.

 PENN STATE is way better, I know its at Mich, but this Penn St. team is really good.

Lol.  You beat arguably the worst Michigan team in over 100 years.  You deserve a pat on the back.  Really, though -- outstanding work by the Nittany Lions.  I guess they were due after all those years of losing to a team that they try so hard to consider a rival. 

Be honest, though.  PSU shut down Illinois and Minnesota, both with offenses ranked in the bottom TEN of national offense.  Not to mention Eastern Illinois, Temple, Syracuse (it gets better), and Akron!!   But hey, your arguments are based clearly on emotion and cloudy perception so I really can't take you too seriously.

You're about to play a team with the 8th ranked offense in the nation, who managed to score 21 points on the Iowa defense (despite 5 turnovers) that made your Offense look like . . . Akron.  Have fun shutting us down off a bye week.  And please, everyone, continue to support PSU so the moneyline becomes that much more profitable for me.

that 8th ranked offense you speak of has played against 1 decent defense all year, and yes they put up 28 points against iowa.  notre dames defense is giving up over 30 pts a game, michigan lost to an average at best michigan state team, shouldve lost to indiana but won due to a bogus call, and then beat 2 more shitty michigan schools.  forcier has not yet seen a front seven like penn states, and you're on crack if you think anyone, much less brandon minor will run for 130+ yds.  I in no way think this will be a blowout win for the lions, that just doesnt happen in the big house, but this is going to be a good hard fought big ten game and whoever doesnt turn the ball over will come out with a close win.

nyumich, let's not waste everyone's time with a pissing contest.  You root for your team, I'll root for mine.  Nuff said.  Nobody gives a rats toukas.  (Or a weasel's.)   What people want is real insight, not spin, and there really is too little actual insight on these threads as it is.

While I am a PSU alum, I don't come in here and post how they're gonna win or cover every week.  In fact last week was the first time, and in that one I was much more in favor of the under, which hit nicely.

I respect UM even if I don't like them.  Kinda hard to respect DickRod but he can still coach and it is too early to call him a bust in Ann Arbor.  Yes it is well documented PS has not won there in a long time.  But there have been some great games, including one that was stolen (the famous :02) and one that went into OT, with Joe running after the refs postgame.  (That was the straw that broke the back leading to instant replay -- not a bad thing.)

I think this may be another good competitive game.  Both teams can still wind up playing on New Years Day.  PS has not had a tough schedule but I watch them closely and am not about to come in here and tell people to waste their money feeding my obsession.  But I do think they'll win it in the end, on the road, in the Big Outhouse.  And cover.

Minnesota is not exactly pigeon food, and you conveniently ignore that win.  If you follow the Big Ten as you should you know they have the best WR in the league, some say in the country, in Eric Decker (84 catches, 1000+ yds last year.)  PS shut him down completely, he finally got one catch in the 4th qtr.   Minn may not be a ranked team but they beat Northwestern, MSU, Air Force and Purdue, and we saw what Purdue did last week.  They lost to Wisky by 3. 

If they are ranked low offensively, one reason is because we shut them out.  Our D is always strong but this year is even stronger.  Prior to our game they scored 23, 20, 21, 35, 28, 35.   They rank low on offensive yardage, not as badly by points.  And points is what counts when you bet.

Our offensive line is coming along.  Won't win any awards but they are not the embarrassment they were to start the year.  This is what you look for -- how a team improves.  So is UM improving?  "Is our children learning?"   We will see.  Playing Delaware State is not a bye week.  They needed an opponent like that after two losses.

Bettors will want to know how Brandon Minor is coming along with that high ankle sprain.  I'm sure he'll play, but I wonder how effective he'll be.

I like Michigan in this game. Penn State has struggled BIG time this year on covering against the weaker teams. Michigan is scoring the points this year. They also are giving up a decent amount of points per game, too. Penn State has a very good defense, but that has came against a lot weaker opponents. Michigan wins a very close game.

Final score:  Michigan 28   Penn State 24

I never really intended it to be a pissing contest, danstyk.  My initial post was certainly imbued with confidence, but it I also cited opinions as to why Michigan would win. Brandon Graham will be in your backfield all day because our defensive line has improved leaps and bounds, which should arguably overcome any improvements in your Offensive Line, which has done nothing to impress all year.  And it seems to be working, since you've gone from PSU will eat us up to it should be a tough game. 

As far as the one proclaimed "fact" that I cited, Brandon Minor is in fact healthy after essentially getting the week off last week.  This is where the kid shines, against tough defenses.  People laughed at the notion that we would score on the ground against a team that hadn't given up a rushing TD in 33 straight quarters.  We scored 3.  When we weren't turning the ball over he was incredibly effective against Iowa.  I expect the same thing this week.  He will run the ball and run it well. 

And thanks for the kind words as far as Rich Rod.  I was almost convinced that he would be a bust before your words of encouragement.  You know, because the guy's track record isn't very good.  Phew.  I'll just go ahead and lump you in with the majority of the public who spouted off all off-season while the majority of Michigan fans laughed.  We've been preparing for this game for 2 weeks now and it will show on Saturday.

Die hard Lion fan here and this game concerns me simply because Michigan always gives us fits like Iowa.  PSU not really road tested, Clark has been turnover prone, O line struggling a bit, and Stef Green may not play which is bigger than most people know with his speed.

Should be a tight game, think Mich will catch em off guard early with their spread but the PSU defense will hunker down and gut out a win.  This is a PSU team that could lose 4 games or not lose another game this year.  Its tough to get a read on them but their defense is one of the best I have seen there in years.

The key matchup in this game is the Michigan D-line vs the Penn St O-line.  On paper this is advantage Michigan to be sure.  The question is will that D-line strength be enough to offset a weak linebacking group and a defensive backfield that is a mess.  Cissoko is suspended becuse of academics. He had lost his starting job to Floyd who has since lost his starting job to Woolfolk, who was a starting safety. Replacing Woolfolk is a walk-on, Kovacs. Williams, the other safety has been hurt off and on this year.

Penn St has an edge at QB, with a Sr Daryl Clark compared with Fr. Tate Forcier.  Tate is very good but was confused by Iowa different looks -- expect more of the same here.  I also expect D. Clark to be forced to run more than he has this year, but he is great at it and can be very effective.  If he gets some protection they'll likely score 30+.

I would also consider taking the over in this game.  Mich can score and will be a good test for a young PS backfield.  But they have delivered so far, in large part due to a strong DL and LB group.

psu,17,mich10

I can't disagree with your on our secondary.  It's just not very good.  The move of Woolfolk to CB has actually shown to be a huge improvement for our corners, but it leaves an even larger hole in the safety position.  Kovacs has been surprisingly good in run support, but our safeties bite on ANYTHING and usually get decimated by 3/4 big plays a game.  I do think PSU will score, but it's going to have to be through the air.  And even at that, I think our D line will play its best game of the year and help out a below-average secondary. 

As far as Tate goes, the kid does play beyond his years.  I'll agree that he played abysmally at Iowa, but he also led 4th-quarter comebacks 3 weeks in a row.  Now he's coming back come, with a healthy Minor to take the load off, and I think that he'll limit his mistakes and save his best for the end. 

Should be a good one, but not good enough for PSU to win

First of all, everyone on this thread can't be more wrong.  Both UM and PSU are poop squads.  'Why' do you ask?  Niether 'team' could beat Pitt!  You could field 11 from psu's offense and 11 mu's offense and field 11 from pitt on defense.  No problem, Pitt shuts down both squads at the same time and vice versa.  Line up 11 on offense for pitt and 11 from psu and 11 from Mudd u on defense and Pitt would still  go up and down the field all day. 

I feel bad for those on this thread, having to root for such piss poor teams.  Admit that you have sinned through backing these 'teams' and you will be saved!

 

ha, you're an idiot

The stage is set and like they say lights, camera, action.  Time to tame these lions and let them taste some wolverine blood.  ( HAPPY HALLOWEEN )

Michigan   28

Penn St.   21   

Penn state will find a way to let down again this season. Michigan or no play for me