YPA California

Forum: Nascar
Author: [Nascar] Topic: YPA California
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/21/2013 12:42:14 PM
Figured I would start a thread earlier in the week rather than an hour before the race. Typically bet between 2-8u. 

YTD:
Daytona: -3u
Phoenix: +2.2u
Vegas: +18.5u
Bristol: +1u
Total: +16.7u

Going to see if I can't keep up the early season head of steam. Last weekend would have been a losing venture if 5dimes didn't cancel my #11 over #78 bet. Two plays before the cars hit the track:

Kenseth +875. He has had the best car 3 out of 4 weeks this year. Even though he's had two races turn sour, I think this team has the speed and confidence to go out and dominate on the big, wide Fontana track.

Earnhardt +1550. Usually don't like betting Earnhardt, but I think he's better than 15:1 here. Kahne showed us at Vegas that the Hendrick cars can keep up with the Gibbs cars on the 1.5+ miler tracks. 

More to follow.

yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/21/2013 5:02:49 PM
YTD above is wrong as I selected California race cells in my Excel sheet. My math isn't that bad. Both #20 and #88 plays are 1u.

Adding a matchup:

(to win) 1u. Biffle -135 vs. Burton. Just going to go ahead and lock this one up before Burton qualifies 26th and finishes within 6 spots of his starting position.

This line (-135 against Biffle) confuses me a bit. 5dimes has Biffle at +1400 to win the race and Newman at +5800. However, Newman is -160 against Burton. 
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/22/2013 1:13:30 PM
Annnnnnd they've since removed the Biffle -135 vs. Burton bet from the board. I was going to put another unit on that bet because it was completely lopsided. 

Apparently I should have waited. A couple drivers odds have gotten more favorable (#20 from 875 to 1000, #88 from 1550 to 1700, #15 all the way to 2500). 

Told myself I'd put 1u on the #14 if he hit 20:1. This is it for pre-qual plays. Adding Stewart +2000.
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/24/2013 2:55:50 PM
Adding 2 more matchups:

(to win) 2u Kurt Busch -110 over Montoya. They both have about the same average finish here, but Montoya has just been lost this year. I've been pretty good picking against Kurt this year, but I think he gets it done with a top 15 today, and Montoya places at least 5 behind that.

(to win) 1u Johnson +130 over Keselowski. I think JJ at plus odds against anyone at California is at least worth a shot.
Maxx40 PM Maxx40
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Posted: 3/24/2013 3:15:37 PM
 looks like we're thinking the same way...gl
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/24/2013 4:20:07 PM
Speeding penalty on the #78. Cool. After slapping the wall after driving through some oil as well! ... 
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/24/2013 6:32:38 PM
3-0 on matchups +4.3u
0-3 on winners -3u

Up 1.3u on the day.

More importantly... THAT RACE WAS INSANE.

Also, can any of you honestly say you're Joey Logano fans? Hop on the hate train with me.
clepto PM clepto
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Posted: 3/24/2013 6:48:38 PM
I like Logano more than ever after today to be honest with you. Lost all respect for that POS douchebag Stewart. F'N hypocrite.
yourpixelarmy PM yourpixelarmy
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Posted: 3/24/2013 7:03:19 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by clepto:

I like Logano more than ever after today to be honest with you. Lost all respect for that POS douchebag Stewart. F'N hypocrite.

With you on the Stewart being a hypocrite in this situation. It didn't even seem like that bad of a block. 

I am laughing my behind off at these Stewart interviews now. I'm sorry, I honestly cannot stand Joey Logano, and this is basically my favorite thing that's ever happened in nascar.
Maxx40 PM Maxx40
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Posted: 3/24/2013 7:12:02 PM

agree with both of you on Stewart....nothing wrong with blocking, Tony should know that (one that comes to mind is Talladega with Regan Smith)

and agree with clepto about Logano. not sure if it was the best judgement to retaliate (concerning the 11) in this situation but i can understand why he did it. Logano has been pushed around on and off the track ever since coming over to the Cup side and its about time he started standing up for himself.

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