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Belmont Analysis and Picks--PART I

Forum: Horse Racing
Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Belmont Analysis and Picks--PART I
mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/8/2017 7:47:21 PM

Aside from the Kentucky Derby, for many of us, The Belmont is our favorite race of the year. Called “The Test of Champions,“ June 10, 2017 is the day of culmination for HandicappingPalooza, which started last summer with 2-year old Breeders Cup preps building to the 1-1/2 miles crescendo in Elmont, NY.

In some Triple Crown seasons, like 2017, when there is no clear cut superstar, the handicapping challenge becomes even greater. With just one horse in this Belmont that will run in all three legs of the Triple Crown, there are more 11 other rocks to turn over in hope that we’ll find the golden nugget.

A bit of Belmont history, as a reminder of the greatness of the race. Winners include the “Great Machine,” Secretariat, who, in 1973, won by more than 31 lengths. Sir Barton, Gallant Fox, War Admiral, Whirlaway, Seattle Slew and Affirmed, all Belmont winners, are interchangeable parts to horse racing’s Mt. Rushmore.

Most every trainer who has won The Belmont is a Hall of Famer, or will be there soon. D. Wayne Lukas has three Belmont wins with Zito, Baffert and Pletcher having each won twice. Clement, Asmussen, Mott, and McLaughlin are past winners. Those of us who go back a few years will remember that Scotty Schulhofer pulled off two stunners with Lemon Drop Kid in 1999 and Colonial Affair in 1994 ridden by the only female jock to ever win a TC race, Julie Krone.

Johnny Velazquez is a two-time winner as is Edgar Prado, but Gary Stevens has three wins. If capping jockeys is part of your strategy, eye-opening for me is that six past Belmont winning jocks are riding in this year’s affair, including Irad Ortiz, Joel Rosario, Mike Smith, Victor Espinoza, Jose Ortiz and Johnny V.

That’s half of the 12 horse field, folks.

Aside from American Pharoah in 2015, since 2003, when the great Empire Maker won the race, several winners were virtual one-shots hardly noticed years after their wins. Drosselmeyer, Da’Tara, Tonalist and Summer Bird are not very top of the mind when it comes to naming Belmont winners, but each provided us with shock and awe when they won. Sarava won in 2002. He’s known more for his 70-1 odds and spoiling War Emblem’s chance for Triple Crown mortality than he is for a great career. Edgar Prado rode with Kenny McPeek, the trainer.

A few of the trainers who won, while a talented lot, are trivia answers. Who recalls that Kelly Breen won with Ruler on Ice, or that Tim Ritchey trained Afleet Alex, or that Tim Ice mentored Summer Bird?

A few of the jocks are hardly remembered, too. One is Fernando Jara, who was North America’s most electric jockey in 2006 at age 18 when he won The Belmont on Jazil. In 2006 and 2007, Jara won nine major races, including the 2006 Breeders’ Cup Classic on Invasor. Just 29-years old, Jara now travels the European and UAE circuit

In 2011, Jose Valdivia Jr. was a leading jockey when he won on Ruler on Ice. Today, Valdivia Jr. occupies the jock’s room at Arlington Park.


mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/8/2017 7:47:53 PM

A few factoids to wet your whistle:

  • Secretariat also holds the race record time at 2:24, as well as the fastest 1/2, 3/4, 1 and 1 1/4 mile fractions in Belmont history. To give an idea of how great Secretariat was, the next fastest time was by Easy Goer…2:26,

  • For Epicharis backers, nine foreign-born horses have won the race with Victory Gallop the last to win in 1998.

  • Fourteen Belmont winners have sired Belmont winners.

  • Something interesting to note, bay horses have the most wins—56—with chestnuts at 54 and dark bay/ brown at 33 winners.

  • Only three gray/roans have won the race, so those of you betting on Tapwrit or Multiplier to win, take note!

  • There is one dark bay brown, Epicharis. There are five bays and four chestnuts along with the two gray/roans.

 

More tomorrow and Saturday. Good luck!

 

atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 8:16:04 PM
good luck mikey
mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/8/2017 8:18:48 PM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

good luck mikey


Hey Atlas. Good luck to you too. Nice to hear from you!

jlewin PM jlewin
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Posted: 6/8/2017 9:02:34 PM
Looking forward to your final write up, always fun to read.  For what it is worth some of my thoughts on this years race.  I don't like the following:  
Looking At Lee (think he should have sat out the Preakness, too many races in a short period of time)
Irish War Cry (very inconsistent, what happened in the Fountain of Youth?  what happened in the Kentucky Derby he almost went off as the favorite and stopped badly)
Epicharis (physical problem, has not raced since March, no lasix)
I see added blinkers for Multiplier maybe will not fall to far behind the pace.  The Pletcher horses (Tapwrit and Patch) look very dangerous to me, Velazquez gave Patch the best ride in his only win, threw out his derby performance.



mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/8/2017 9:21:21 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by jlewin:

Looking forward to your final write up, always fun to read.  For what it is worth some of my thoughts on this years race.  I don't like the following:  
Looking At Lee (think he should have sat out the Preakness, too many races in a short period of time)
Irish War Cry (very inconsistent, what happened in the Fountain of Youth?  what happened in the Kentucky Derby he almost went off as the favorite and stopped badly)
Epicharis (physical problem, has not raced since March, no lasix)
I see added blinkers for Multiplier maybe will not fall to far behind the pace.  The Pletcher horses (Tapwrit and Patch) look very dangerous to me, Velazquez gave Patch the best ride in his only win, threw out his derby performance.




thank you J.....excellent thoughts. I think your observation about Patch is a good one. In fact, there is an article on todays drf.com that speaks similar.

 I think we all need to take a real hard look at Patch....considering Todd's success in the past few years in TC races and Johnny V a long time ownwer of the Belmont surface.

You also make a good point about IWC. Which horse will show up? If it's the good one, look out!

You are right about Lee. What in hell were they thinking by putting him in the Preakness? A rested horse would have been prime for the Belmont. I love the guy, but his path has been grueling!

I read Epicharis trainer's comments today. Sounds like he is hoping against hope. The only thing I will say is that the Japanese racing system is huge on horses being fit and out of harm's way.

IF HE RUNS, I have to believe it is because the trainer truly believes he is sound and will not be placed in jeopardy..


Hawky PM Hawky
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Posted: 6/9/2017 3:28:54 AM
senior investment. risk it before its too late
mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/9/2017 8:38:47 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by Hawky:

senior investment. risk it before its too late


The most improving horse in the race ? He's starting to peak and has a legit shot at something in The Belmont.

bobboonehater PM bobboonehater
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Posted: 6/9/2017 6:21:20 PM
Mikey when do you have 30 mins or so tonight or tomorrow I have several ideas here and would like to post back and fourth...that's what I did on pregame last year with a guy and convinced me to out Lani in my 5 horse super box....if I have time
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bobboonehater PM bobboonehater
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Posted: 6/9/2017 6:22:01 PM
Put
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mikeyp1 PM mikeyp1
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Posted: 6/10/2017 12:00:40 AM
QUOTE

Originally Posted by bobboonehater:

Mikey when do you have 30 mins or so tonight or tomorrow I have several ideas here and would like to post back and fourth...that's what I did on pregame last year with a guy and convinced me to out Lani in my 5 horse super box....if I have time

OK..send me an email request through Covers and we can discuss. I was at the ball game today and out  until now, but plan to have some time on Saturday morning

The Hawk PM The Hawk
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Posted: 6/10/2017 10:52:46 AM
...................and I'm in

$10 Exacta-All with 7

$1 Trifecta-All/All with 7

GLTA
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