Belmont Park - 6/8

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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Belmont Park - 6/8
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/7/2017 8:20:52 PM
race 8

7 WP

8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern.  taking a shot here against a full field going 7/8ths on the green. big fat juicy purse for a turf sprint expecting top efforts from some.  this miss must improve to win this i don't doubt that.  i think she can and could be sitting on a peak effort.  she's a 4YO already in her third racing season but she only has six lifetime spins.  3/3 on the lawn and toss the dirt try and she fires every time.  shows nice acceleration late going one turn and two turns on the green.  last out coulda ran a higher fig the trouble wasn't as much as the comments imply but she did check on the turn and start slow. goes sprint/route here (trainer 27%), 3rd start as a lightly raced 4YO, off a 6-7 week break that has worked well before, and steps up in class meaningfully.  all of these tell me entirely possible she could improve here and run a new top fig.  88 and 85 last out not that far out of it could see winner here running 91-95.  five consistent maintenance drills since the last looking for a good effort late here. 1.00 units.  
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/7/2017 8:25:00 PM
1, 3, 6, 11 - tossing
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/7/2017 8:30:07 PM
8 - this little sizzler should be out front setting the clip she's on a roll but has to go 7/8ths today.  i'm playing she looks good at the top of the lane but gets gobbled up in that final furlong.  not sold she will be "all alone" either.

6 and 2 - could see these two going early as both have before with limited success and neither can consistently settle and close.  best shot might be to try and win it up front.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/7/2017 8:46:49 PM
9 - legit fav for sure probably 4/5 on the tote. yet to strong together two or more spins and she is off a career top well above prior high. chad is "only" 18% 2nd off the pine i am gambling she might regress just a tad facing a better crew.  feel 9 and 7 most consistent finishers.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/7/2017 8:59:01 PM
4- thinking this horse is bet down hard on the assumption she will fire huge 2nd off the layoff. has juicy figs in turf sprints last year but two of those were 5.5F and one was down the hill where the hill can help a horse go a bit further than usual. i'm fading at this 7/8ths don't think it is her best distance maybe she kills me maybe not
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/7/2017 9:23:05 PM
5 - thinking most look at that 96 and 93 and assume the horse will run that number or better in this race.  i'm fading. this is her 3rd race in nine weeks and if you look at her historical pattern she is more likely to run right around 90 around one turn.  also doesn't always finish that well and has even faded late before i'll be the dummy that fades her and takes a chance she doesn't run her best. last two wins her an optional at GP and cutesie stake on yielding at kentucky downs and hasn't been as effective late in tougher fields. 
Midnight1 PM Midnight1
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Posted: 6/7/2017 10:06:07 PM
Good 2cu atlas....

Love the breeding on your pick. Your girl is moving up along with the 1, 8 & 9. I like that Johnny V is back to ride #2 after that one gave him a hard time in her last. #5 always seems to get herself in some kind of racing issues...hitting the gate, drifting out even when winning & getting steadied. 

Nice card tomorrow @ Big Sandy...
.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 6:38:32 AM
hey mids nice to see you as well.  good luck

the 2 is a wild card here and I think she could make some noise.  i see her best chance if velazquez puts her up on the pace and tries to stay close and pounce on that little 8.  my main concerns with her are that her finishes in her two races in 2017 were a bit flat and that 97 she ran last year may have been a bloated fig and looks out of pattern.  is she really a horse that can run 97 on turf?  as a 5YO with two so so efforts this year is she past her prime?  wild card.  if johnny puts her close i'll be happy as that should help my pick by setting up more pace up front.
adamsmsu PM adamsmsu
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Posted: 6/8/2017 6:39:17 PM
Great pick as always atlas, where ya been the last 2 years?!
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 6:39:46 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by atlasshrugged:

race 8

7 WP

8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern.  taking a shot here against a full field going 7/8ths on the green. big fat juicy purse for a turf sprint expecting top efforts from some.  this miss must improve to win this i don't doubt that.  i think she can and could be sitting on a peak effort.  she's a 4YO already in her third racing season but she only has six lifetime spins.  3/3 on the lawn and toss the dirt try and she fires every time.  shows nice acceleration late going one turn and two turns on the green.  last out coulda ran a higher fig the trouble wasn't as much as the comments imply but she did check on the turn and start slow. goes sprint/route here (trainer 27%), 3rd start as a lightly raced 4YO, off a 6-7 week break that has worked well before, and steps up in class meaningfully.  all of these tell me entirely possible she could improve here and run a new top fig.  88 and 85 last out not that far out of it could see winner here running 91-95.  five consistent maintenance drills since the last looking for a good effort late here. 1.00 units.  

2nd at 9/1

missed by a nose. Rosario had her floating in the rear and then she was closing like a rocket to just miss

the "unbeatable" fav up the track at 3/5.  the 4 would "definitely" improve a ton 2nd time off the break up the track.
atlasshrugged PM atlasshrugged
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Posted: 6/8/2017 6:46:00 PM
QUOTE Originally Posted by adamsmsu:

Great pick as always atlas, where ya been the last 2 years?!

thanks 

been very busy professionally I rarely play.  last time was opening day for SA day after Christmas.  let's see if we can cook up something for Saturday
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