Hello all. I'm new to the forum. I'm trying to learn how to win at thoroughbred horse racing. I'm an older gentleman and I've followed racing all my life. I've read most of the major books but consider myself an amateur. I'm a very small time participant but I enjoy the analysis and the racing and, everything really.
Hello all. I'm new to the forum. I'm trying to learn how to win at thoroughbred horse racing. I'm an older gentleman and I've followed racing all my life. I've read most of the major books but consider myself an amateur. I'm a very small time participant but I enjoy the analysis and the racing and, everything really.
A question: Every day I play, I see a horse that is a "favorite" and that also races very well, perhaps even winning.
Some of these horses puzzle me greatly -- as to why they are a favorite or why they are good runners. To me, when I look at a racing form, they look like horses that should be headed for a glue factory somewhere. :)
Yet, they are favorites and they run well. I'm baffled by these. How do I figure out what is going on there? (Thus my presence here?!?!)
A question: Every day I play, I see a horse that is a "favorite" and that also races very well, perhaps even winning.
Some of these horses puzzle me greatly -- as to why they are a favorite or why they are good runners. To me, when I look at a racing form, they look like horses that should be headed for a glue factory somewhere. :)
Yet, they are favorites and they run well. I'm baffled by these. How do I figure out what is going on there? (Thus my presence here?!?!)
Welcome TT. Since you are new to handicapping you will have many questions. I would like to share what my ist steps are when opening a race. You must id the top 4 or 5 contenders in a race. Here is the method I employ to id contenders. The list is taken from Tom Brohamers book Modern Pace Handicapping and is valid just when it was first published.
1 If a horse is remaining in the same class as its last race it must have been up close at either the stretch call or fin. Up close is defined as 21/2 lengths for a sprint, 31/2 for routes to 9f and 4 for 9f or longer. I also consider a horse that was 1st, 2nd or 3rd at those calls.
2 If a horse is dropping in class it must have been up call at the 2nd call or better.
3 A horse going up after a loss though not an automatic toss is usually a bad bet.
4 A horse going up in class after a win is ok. If going up 2 levels take that as a good sign.
5 A horse dropping after a win should be avoided like the plague.
6 Horses returning from a layoff of more then 30 days[I use 45] should show a steady workout pattern say every 5-7 days. Prefer workouts of 5f or longer. I check to see if the horse has done well off a layoff before and the trainer record with layoff horses.
Hope I helped a little. Good luck with your capping.
Welcome TT. Since you are new to handicapping you will have many questions. I would like to share what my ist steps are when opening a race. You must id the top 4 or 5 contenders in a race. Here is the method I employ to id contenders. The list is taken from Tom Brohamers book Modern Pace Handicapping and is valid just when it was first published.
1 If a horse is remaining in the same class as its last race it must have been up close at either the stretch call or fin. Up close is defined as 21/2 lengths for a sprint, 31/2 for routes to 9f and 4 for 9f or longer. I also consider a horse that was 1st, 2nd or 3rd at those calls.
2 If a horse is dropping in class it must have been up call at the 2nd call or better.
3 A horse going up after a loss though not an automatic toss is usually a bad bet.
4 A horse going up in class after a win is ok. If going up 2 levels take that as a good sign.
5 A horse dropping after a win should be avoided like the plague.
6 Horses returning from a layoff of more then 30 days[I use 45] should show a steady workout pattern say every 5-7 days. Prefer workouts of 5f or longer. I check to see if the horse has done well off a layoff before and the trainer record with layoff horses.
Hope I helped a little. Good luck with your capping.
Thanks LT. I appreciate your info. I'm not really new to handicapping...although there is much don't know. I feel like a newby, though, when I see how much some of you guys know.
I'm right about the break-even point in handicapping. I just can't quite get over the top where I can actually make a profit.
Your info is great, by the way, I wrote it down and posted it next to my monitor so I don't forget it
Thanks LT. I appreciate your info. I'm not really new to handicapping...although there is much don't know. I feel like a newby, though, when I see how much some of you guys know.
I'm right about the break-even point in handicapping. I just can't quite get over the top where I can actually make a profit.
Your info is great, by the way, I wrote it down and posted it next to my monitor so I don't forget it
My bad should have read up close at the 2nd call. Since you are at the break even point I would suggest that you keep a record of your bets and see what type of races you win the most. As for myself I confine my play to races for 3yr olds and up on the dirt. I play very few mdns ,turf, or races for straight 3 yr olds. These is a result of record keeping which revealed that when I was playing those types of races my win % dropped 10 to 15%.
My bad should have read up close at the 2nd call. Since you are at the break even point I would suggest that you keep a record of your bets and see what type of races you win the most. As for myself I confine my play to races for 3yr olds and up on the dirt. I play very few mdns ,turf, or races for straight 3 yr olds. These is a result of record keeping which revealed that when I was playing those types of races my win % dropped 10 to 15%.
No problem TT heck I had help when I started to get serious and think if one can help they should. Also keep an out for other posters and how they do things. Develop your own style. I would also suggest that you look into Brohamers betting decision model also in his book. I'm going to PM the website of the group I belong to. It's free to join and you get the Brohamer model and how to also keep a track profile at no cost. I use both of them daily.
No problem TT heck I had help when I started to get serious and think if one can help they should. Also keep an out for other posters and how they do things. Develop your own style. I would also suggest that you look into Brohamers betting decision model also in his book. I'm going to PM the website of the group I belong to. It's free to join and you get the Brohamer model and how to also keep a track profile at no cost. I use both of them daily.
LT, if you're still there, you said you play primarily dirt races. Here's something I'm not sure about -- a 9 furlong race on dirt (two turns), when handicapping, would you treat that as something closer to a "sprint" on dirt or a "route" on turf? I never really fully understood how to treat a long dirt race.
LT, if you're still there, you said you play primarily dirt races. Here's something I'm not sure about -- a 9 furlong race on dirt (two turns), when handicapping, would you treat that as something closer to a "sprint" on dirt or a "route" on turf? I never really fully understood how to treat a long dirt race.
No problem TT heck I had help when I started to get serious and think if one can help they should. Also keep an out for other posters and how they do things. Develop your own style. I would also suggest that you look into Brohamers betting decision model also in his book. I'm going to PM the website of the group I belong to. It's free to join and you get the Brohamer model and how to also keep a track profile at no cost. I use both of them daily.
No problem TT heck I had help when I started to get serious and think if one can help they should. Also keep an out for other posters and how they do things. Develop your own style. I would also suggest that you look into Brohamers betting decision model also in his book. I'm going to PM the website of the group I belong to. It's free to join and you get the Brohamer model and how to also keep a track profile at no cost. I use both of them daily.
Be careful not all 9f races go around 2 turns. Bel is 1 track that goes around 1 turn. I treat it as a route and since I use a computer program I use I don't have to worry about adjusting for the difference between 1 and 2 turn races since it's done automatically.in the program. I tried to pm you but it says we have to be friends so I sent you a friends request. If you accept I'll send the pm.
Be careful not all 9f races go around 2 turns. Bel is 1 track that goes around 1 turn. I treat it as a route and since I use a computer program I use I don't have to worry about adjusting for the difference between 1 and 2 turn races since it's done automatically.in the program. I tried to pm you but it says we have to be friends so I sent you a friends request. If you accept I'll send the pm.
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