8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern, distance. taking a stab here in this full field thinking this gal can mow these down late with the 6.5F distance helping. really like the late zip she showed going 7/8ths last out in her second spin when this 6.5F could challenge most if not all of the others in my view. never been on dirt is the obvious question everyone has (2/3 sibs won on dirt high fig 92 in route and 92 in sprint). lightly raced 2/2 off a solid freshening since october comes in with six solid drills on dirt in florida for this. like her off the pace style for this race and the improving pattern (last out "rallied fast, up late"). ran 63 and then 83 at 7/8ths (polyfluff i know) could improve on dirt and certainly could regress but i like that she's fresh and ready and can sit back and make one late run. 1, 3, and 5 wanna go early maybe this sets up for her and a little step forward she can be right there. 1.00 units.
8/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern, distance. taking a stab here in this full field thinking this gal can mow these down late with the 6.5F distance helping. really like the late zip she showed going 7/8ths last out in her second spin when this 6.5F could challenge most if not all of the others in my view. never been on dirt is the obvious question everyone has (2/3 sibs won on dirt high fig 92 in route and 92 in sprint). lightly raced 2/2 off a solid freshening since october comes in with six solid drills on dirt in florida for this. like her off the pace style for this race and the improving pattern (last out "rallied fast, up late"). ran 63 and then 83 at 7/8ths (polyfluff i know) could improve on dirt and certainly could regress but i like that she's fresh and ready and can sit back and make one late run. 1, 3, and 5 wanna go early maybe this sets up for her and a little step forward she can be right there. 1.00 units.
this race here the 1 probably ends up the fav or the 6. i hope they hammer them both. if the 1 beats me so be it everyone will drool over that 96 last out but that was OC16K untouched winning by six and that fig is way out of pattern. also has to go longer in this one with more pace/class pressure. if she runs a 96 here under these circumstances i tip my cap. pletch has the 6 and that one big race at Monmouth (always suspicious when top fig is easy lead win by open lengths) looks like a bit of an aberration and last out at the Spa against what was likely a similar type field she got nailed going 6F. maybe she improves but she's already had eight spins i'll take my chances fading her. the others don't look fast enough, lack late punch, and are inconsistent.
this race here the 1 probably ends up the fav or the 6. i hope they hammer them both. if the 1 beats me so be it everyone will drool over that 96 last out but that was OC16K untouched winning by six and that fig is way out of pattern. also has to go longer in this one with more pace/class pressure. if she runs a 96 here under these circumstances i tip my cap. pletch has the 6 and that one big race at Monmouth (always suspicious when top fig is easy lead win by open lengths) looks like a bit of an aberration and last out at the Spa against what was likely a similar type field she got nailed going 6F. maybe she improves but she's already had eight spins i'll take my chances fading her. the others don't look fast enough, lack late punch, and are inconsistent.
7/2 ml. recency, breeding, pace. kind of a combo play here on her and against what at best appears to be a modest field and what may be a pretty weak field also lacking pace that can last beyond 3F. has a decent set of six consistent drills with the zip picking up on the recent ones and two gate drills after the 5/8ths move. i know Mott "never" wins first out but not impossible in this field. daddy 16% in debut with so far a decent sample size of 43. mommy ran a 120 sprinting and 5/8 sibs won while two of the others sucked and the other was modest. sibs ran between 91-107 top fig dirt sprint. if she can run we should see it right away maybe she goes and never looks back. hopefully he puts her on the lead other firsters don't look ready yet and the others haven't shown anything late. 0.60 units.
7/2 ml. recency, breeding, pace. kind of a combo play here on her and against what at best appears to be a modest field and what may be a pretty weak field also lacking pace that can last beyond 3F. has a decent set of six consistent drills with the zip picking up on the recent ones and two gate drills after the 5/8ths move. i know Mott "never" wins first out but not impossible in this field. daddy 16% in debut with so far a decent sample size of 43. mommy ran a 120 sprinting and 5/8 sibs won while two of the others sucked and the other was modest. sibs ran between 91-107 top fig dirt sprint. if she can run we should see it right away maybe she goes and never looks back. hopefully he puts her on the lead other firsters don't look ready yet and the others haven't shown anything late. 0.60 units.
field of ten here so even with a scratch maybe she doesn't get bet too hard. they'll play the 1, 3, and 7 as well. that 1 (shocker) ran a 63 at Calder/GPW and then regressed next out at GP both were even efforts late. she wins if nobody else can show any type of effort. 7 intrigued me a bit tree is decent skipper does well second time out but she folded midway against statebreds and lost ground late. on paper didn't look fit heading into that one and nothing suggests otherwise now but she is jumping to open company. 3 just looks slow to me but her 59 last out "stands out" here. wildcards elsewhere i'll try this 2 to take them all the way.
i understand she'll get bet but there's other options and a healthy field size so we'll see
field of ten here so even with a scratch maybe she doesn't get bet too hard. they'll play the 1, 3, and 7 as well. that 1 (shocker) ran a 63 at Calder/GPW and then regressed next out at GP both were even efforts late. she wins if nobody else can show any type of effort. 7 intrigued me a bit tree is decent skipper does well second time out but she folded midway against statebreds and lost ground late. on paper didn't look fit heading into that one and nothing suggests otherwise now but she is jumping to open company. 3 just looks slow to me but her 59 last out "stands out" here. wildcards elsewhere i'll try this 2 to take them all the way.
i understand she'll get bet but there's other options and a healthy field size so we'll see
race 7 - passing. this is a G3 one turn mile. not intrigued by the opportunity here there are two horses with better figs and speed/pace than the others at this distance. Lea, valid, and the pletcher will all be less than 3/1. the 6 is a little interesting but i'm not sold he can get this distance against this level of competition. he might be breathing fire at the furlong pole trying to wire them - not easy.
race 7 - passing. this is a G3 one turn mile. not intrigued by the opportunity here there are two horses with better figs and speed/pace than the others at this distance. Lea, valid, and the pletcher will all be less than 3/1. the 6 is a little interesting but i'm not sold he can get this distance against this level of competition. he might be breathing fire at the furlong pole trying to wire them - not easy.
8/1 ml. recency, pattern, late speed. bulky field of twelve here this is major scrambled eggs most of these fellas are up and down and very erratic. i'm trying the one that looks to be gradually improving nicely with room for upside. toss his first two spins off the layoff last two on the green have been solid he has shown good late energy. ran an 80 last out on this surface going a bit further which is competitive here but no edge it's very wide open. like the pattern and confident move here he's back in three and half weeks which is a tad quick for Clement and he takes a meaningful jump up from N2L. i'm taking that as he thinks he's fit and doing well right now. this thing is very wide open with a big field maybe he can take a little step forward and find a spot to run late and gun them down. 0.75 units.
8/1 ml. recency, pattern, late speed. bulky field of twelve here this is major scrambled eggs most of these fellas are up and down and very erratic. i'm trying the one that looks to be gradually improving nicely with room for upside. toss his first two spins off the layoff last two on the green have been solid he has shown good late energy. ran an 80 last out on this surface going a bit further which is competitive here but no edge it's very wide open. like the pattern and confident move here he's back in three and half weeks which is a tad quick for Clement and he takes a meaningful jump up from N2L. i'm taking that as he thinks he's fit and doing well right now. this thing is very wide open with a big field maybe he can take a little step forward and find a spot to run late and gun them down. 0.75 units.
6 probably the chalk here with Lezcano he's off back to back wins by open lengths. one was on turf rated good and the other was yielding and he got an 86 and 82. people will jump on that. even though it was wet the fact that he just cruised by a field going 49 and 1:15 in his last for example just makes me wonder how much quality was there. his other impressive win (80 fig) was a 25/50/1:15 race. let's see how he does here off the layoff with much more pace. others with higher figs than the 6 in some races have similar things that make me curious along with posting their best at inferior circuits. huge field we shall see i'll give the 6 a shot to bring another quality effort.
6 probably the chalk here with Lezcano he's off back to back wins by open lengths. one was on turf rated good and the other was yielding and he got an 86 and 82. people will jump on that. even though it was wet the fact that he just cruised by a field going 49 and 1:15 in his last for example just makes me wonder how much quality was there. his other impressive win (80 fig) was a 25/50/1:15 race. let's see how he does here off the layoff with much more pace. others with higher figs than the 6 in some races have similar things that make me curious along with posting their best at inferior circuits. huge field we shall see i'll give the 6 a shot to bring another quality effort.
15/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern. typical gulfstream turf this a very difficult race half the field can win i'm taking a shot this guy can take this field all the way up front. this 1 appears ready to go here in this spot and given his style in a big field he should create a chance for himself turning for home. like the bold placement off the pine last two off layoffs he wired the field running 98 last out and 95 before. nice set of four drills for this and even after he totally bombed trying a G1 he sticks him back into a difficult G2 (trainer 21% in graded stakes and 21% turf). six year old fella only has ten lifetime spins it sounds goofy but he could be finding himself now and the G2 entry leads me to think he's fit and ready. obviously i'm swinging for the fences here but this field doesn't have a ton of pace he could get very brave. i'll give this guy a shot and make them run him down. 1.00 units.
15/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern. typical gulfstream turf this a very difficult race half the field can win i'm taking a shot this guy can take this field all the way up front. this 1 appears ready to go here in this spot and given his style in a big field he should create a chance for himself turning for home. like the bold placement off the pine last two off layoffs he wired the field running 98 last out and 95 before. nice set of four drills for this and even after he totally bombed trying a G1 he sticks him back into a difficult G2 (trainer 21% in graded stakes and 21% turf). six year old fella only has ten lifetime spins it sounds goofy but he could be finding himself now and the G2 entry leads me to think he's fit and ready. obviously i'm swinging for the fences here but this field doesn't have a ton of pace he could get very brave. i'll give this guy a shot and make them run him down. 1.00 units.
this pesky little sprinter the 13 could fukk this up possibly though he has to really gun it from way out there given the location of the starting gate. 5 can also apply some pace pressure. let's see how the 13 is breathing on the far turn though. 1 certainly appears on paper to be a "need the lead" but the jock knows if it's 13 out front he can let him fold late. if the 1 is mid-pack for whatever reason he's toast. needs to come out firing and try to hold on late. no real monsters in here but several that are capable on their best.
this pesky little sprinter the 13 could fukk this up possibly though he has to really gun it from way out there given the location of the starting gate. 5 can also apply some pace pressure. let's see how the 13 is breathing on the far turn though. 1 certainly appears on paper to be a "need the lead" but the jock knows if it's 13 out front he can let him fold late. if the 1 is mid-pack for whatever reason he's toast. needs to come out firing and try to hold on late. no real monsters in here but several that are capable on their best.
15/1 ml. pattern, late speed, surface, distance. taking a shot here this miss is 2nd off the bench jumping up in class against a tough crew. last season this time she fired a dud at GP and moved forward strongly 2nd off and ripped five straight solid races including a very tough G2 and G1. this year off the bench she ran a pretty solid race first race since a dud at the Spa in August and her move into this spot suggests she might be doing pretty well right now. a few in here look to be gunning out front and this miss is capable of sitting back and bringing it late but i like that she doesn't have to come from the clouds she can be within reasonable range. she can run figs in the low 90's when she fires which are very competitive with this field. looking for her to move forward 2nd off and i do NOT want her near the front and think her best shot is to settle and mow them down late in this particular situation. 1.00 units.
15/1 ml. pattern, late speed, surface, distance. taking a shot here this miss is 2nd off the bench jumping up in class against a tough crew. last season this time she fired a dud at GP and moved forward strongly 2nd off and ripped five straight solid races including a very tough G2 and G1. this year off the bench she ran a pretty solid race first race since a dud at the Spa in August and her move into this spot suggests she might be doing pretty well right now. a few in here look to be gunning out front and this miss is capable of sitting back and bringing it late but i like that she doesn't have to come from the clouds she can be within reasonable range. she can run figs in the low 90's when she fires which are very competitive with this field. looking for her to move forward 2nd off and i do NOT want her near the front and think her best shot is to settle and mow them down late in this particular situation. 1.00 units.
jock on this 6 is 1/65 at GP currently though with 14 others that hit the board
whole world will be on the 3 no doubt the best figs and "class edge". i think she's tough but beatable (also had quite a rigorous campaign last year) and she runs evenly late to me. runs low to mid-90's if she ran upper 90's every time i would view it differently. i'll try and beat her. a few others very capable as well another tough race. i expect some pace with the 1,2 and 9 out there winging it.
i'll try these five and see how it goes. good luck fellas
jock on this 6 is 1/65 at GP currently though with 14 others that hit the board
whole world will be on the 3 no doubt the best figs and "class edge". i think she's tough but beatable (also had quite a rigorous campaign last year) and she runs evenly late to me. runs low to mid-90's if she ran upper 90's every time i would view it differently. i'll try and beat her. a few others very capable as well another tough race. i expect some pace with the 1,2 and 9 out there winging it.
i'll try these five and see how it goes. good luck fellas
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