6/1 ml. late speed, pattern, distance, surface. taking a stab here down the hill with this lightly raced 3YO girl facing some elders off since January. looking for 1, 3, 5, and 9 to establish some pace/setup here and potentially creating an opportunity for someone to nail this field late. some others here with better figs overall but late speed somewhat lacking in this field. the horses with the higher figs not exactly sharp now and/or a bit inconsistent. like the debut on turf for this one she came from the clouds at Inglewood to mow them down late then got a goofy trip/ride down the hill and went to the sidelines. comes back with the meds (trainer 18%) at an appropriate class level with a strong sequence of drills. like the 7/8ths on the green, snappy 4F and then two 6F stamina moves on dirt. maybe she's got more to show us. low 80's should win this (she ran 76 and didn't really fire last out) none of them are particularly fast on figs i'll give her a shot to mow down this crew in the lane. 0.75 units.
6/1 ml. late speed, pattern, distance, surface. taking a stab here down the hill with this lightly raced 3YO girl facing some elders off since January. looking for 1, 3, 5, and 9 to establish some pace/setup here and potentially creating an opportunity for someone to nail this field late. some others here with better figs overall but late speed somewhat lacking in this field. the horses with the higher figs not exactly sharp now and/or a bit inconsistent. like the debut on turf for this one she came from the clouds at Inglewood to mow them down late then got a goofy trip/ride down the hill and went to the sidelines. comes back with the meds (trainer 18%) at an appropriate class level with a strong sequence of drills. like the 7/8ths on the green, snappy 4F and then two 6F stamina moves on dirt. maybe she's got more to show us. low 80's should win this (she ran 76 and didn't really fire last out) none of them are particularly fast on figs i'll give her a shot to mow down this crew in the lane. 0.75 units.
two favs and why I'm willing to try and beat them:
4 - two things jump out first a) is most successful against cream puffs (starter allowance and conditioned claimers), and b) she's 3/18 lifetime and never ran above 81. so she absolutely can win this but unlikely to improve and has fired late on the hill but also ran evenly late on the hill. also fairly busy this year can't expect them to fire every time especially the gals. i'll see if i can beat her.
1 - ran 84 twice down the hill gets Raffy again obviously she wins if she repeats those spins. decent move down the hill in June and then back to back duds at DMR around two turns. i get the concept of cutting back, back to Arcadia, etc. but it concerns me she was so flat in both of her last two races. i'll take my chances this old lady is heading the wrong way but won't be surprised at all if she did win.
two favs and why I'm willing to try and beat them:
4 - two things jump out first a) is most successful against cream puffs (starter allowance and conditioned claimers), and b) she's 3/18 lifetime and never ran above 81. so she absolutely can win this but unlikely to improve and has fired late on the hill but also ran evenly late on the hill. also fairly busy this year can't expect them to fire every time especially the gals. i'll see if i can beat her.
1 - ran 84 twice down the hill gets Raffy again obviously she wins if she repeats those spins. decent move down the hill in June and then back to back duds at DMR around two turns. i get the concept of cutting back, back to Arcadia, etc. but it concerns me she was so flat in both of her last two races. i'll take my chances this old lady is heading the wrong way but won't be surprised at all if she did win.
8/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, speed, surface. everyone can see this guy is a bum that coughs it up late and i agree for the most part. he doesn't completely crumble late he's gotten gobbled up by better or gone too fast early. some of those were against OC62K N2X and some were against comparable to what he faces here, but in this particular scenario today he catches a crew with very little pace and very iffy late speed. i'm giving this guy a shot to take them all the way up front and he doesn't have to go 1:10 and change the best scenario is if he can go a decent 1:11/1:12 and change and save some late. he's very competitive on figs overall IF he fires and comes back close to what he did down at Gulfstream. i like that he's back in a race less than five weeks since the last which is a change in pattern after two layoffs indicating he may be feeling ok. rail out at 15 feet doesn't hurt him but certainly doesn't guarantee anything. i'll take a shot that he's right there at the furlong pole and can possibly lunge for that wire in front . . . . . . if he keeps trying hard. 0.75 units
8/1 ml. recency, pace, pattern, speed, surface. everyone can see this guy is a bum that coughs it up late and i agree for the most part. he doesn't completely crumble late he's gotten gobbled up by better or gone too fast early. some of those were against OC62K N2X and some were against comparable to what he faces here, but in this particular scenario today he catches a crew with very little pace and very iffy late speed. i'm giving this guy a shot to take them all the way up front and he doesn't have to go 1:10 and change the best scenario is if he can go a decent 1:11/1:12 and change and save some late. he's very competitive on figs overall IF he fires and comes back close to what he did down at Gulfstream. i like that he's back in a race less than five weeks since the last which is a change in pattern after two layoffs indicating he may be feeling ok. rail out at 15 feet doesn't hurt him but certainly doesn't guarantee anything. i'll take a shot that he's right there at the furlong pole and can possibly lunge for that wire in front . . . . . . if he keeps trying hard. 0.75 units
should be staring at nothing but green turning for home but can this piece of crap hold on late
they will hammer this 6 but boy he hasn't fired lately and now takes his third straight class drop the peeps look at those figs and overlook they were at much longer distances (two in Phoenix) and thus not necessarily relevant to today's race yikes you all can have him at 8/5 not for me.
should be staring at nothing but green turning for home but can this piece of crap hold on late
they will hammer this 6 but boy he hasn't fired lately and now takes his third straight class drop the peeps look at those figs and overlook they were at much longer distances (two in Phoenix) and thus not necessarily relevant to today's race yikes you all can have him at 8/5 not for me.
6/1 ml. recency, pace, speed, pattern, stamina. taking a little shot here with this rugged, scrappy 6YO gelding that's 11/20 in the exacta and generally brings a legit effort every time. also is versatile can be placed anywhere but should find himself close to the sizzle in this one with a chance to pounce. been very busy lately going up the ladder and i like how he's had six weeks since his last spin with four easy drills in that time when he had been running every 3-4 weeks. fresh and fit. faces a few tough cookies in here off the bench. on figs he's pretty competitive and has shown it on dirt. like the 6.5F here with others folding late and layoff horses taking on a tough distance to sprint. just looking for him to be in good position and keep trying hard the entire time. 1.0 units.
6/1 ml. recency, pace, speed, pattern, stamina. taking a little shot here with this rugged, scrappy 6YO gelding that's 11/20 in the exacta and generally brings a legit effort every time. also is versatile can be placed anywhere but should find himself close to the sizzle in this one with a chance to pounce. been very busy lately going up the ladder and i like how he's had six weeks since his last spin with four easy drills in that time when he had been running every 3-4 weeks. fresh and fit. faces a few tough cookies in here off the bench. on figs he's pretty competitive and has shown it on dirt. like the 6.5F here with others folding late and layoff horses taking on a tough distance to sprint. just looking for him to be in good position and keep trying hard the entire time. 1.0 units.
I figure 4, 5, 8, and 9 get action here and they will likely bet Baffert's 4 right off the tote. I'm hoping they do actually and if he wins so be it. i'm always curious why a horse goes to the sidelines after running a 97 when he should be heading into a G2. also never been past 6F so although Baffert is excellent off the pine I'll make this guy prove he's healthy and can beat this field going 6.5F off the bench as opposed to a four horse field going 6F. new surface as well since that spin which may or may not reward early pace as much. nobody else on figs looks imposing.
I figure 4, 5, 8, and 9 get action here and they will likely bet Baffert's 4 right off the tote. I'm hoping they do actually and if he wins so be it. i'm always curious why a horse goes to the sidelines after running a 97 when he should be heading into a G2. also never been past 6F so although Baffert is excellent off the pine I'll make this guy prove he's healthy and can beat this field going 6.5F off the bench as opposed to a four horse field going 6F. new surface as well since that spin which may or may not reward early pace as much. nobody else on figs looks imposing.
9/2 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. rolling with this guy that has really sprung to life in his 6YO season he comes in fresh and fit off about nine weeks with six recorded drills in that time. two back closed very strongly down the hill and then last out he rocketed home at a two turn mile at DMR he jumps up in class looks pointed to this to see if he's good enough for the next one. couple toughies in here but he looks ready to go and sharp i'll give him a shot. 0.75 units.
9/2 ml. recency, late speed, pattern. rolling with this guy that has really sprung to life in his 6YO season he comes in fresh and fit off about nine weeks with six recorded drills in that time. two back closed very strongly down the hill and then last out he rocketed home at a two turn mile at DMR he jumps up in class looks pointed to this to see if he's good enough for the next one. couple toughies in here but he looks ready to go and sharp i'll give him a shot. 0.75 units.
8 obviously is a solid fit here with strong figs relative to the field down the hill and at 6.5F overall. off since February and now he's in open company he's not overwhelming on figs i'll swing against him here.
the whole world can see if the 6 ran a 105 or 100 down the hill today he would win. he's also been gone a while and likely pointed to the next one five weeks from now. certainly he can win but I'm willing to test him today see if he doesn't have his best stuff. others are topsy turvy and up and down. i'm projecting top effort from the 3 and we find out if he's good enough here.
8 obviously is a solid fit here with strong figs relative to the field down the hill and at 6.5F overall. off since February and now he's in open company he's not overwhelming on figs i'll swing against him here.
the whole world can see if the 6 ran a 105 or 100 down the hill today he would win. he's also been gone a while and likely pointed to the next one five weeks from now. certainly he can win but I'm willing to test him today see if he doesn't have his best stuff. others are topsy turvy and up and down. i'm projecting top effort from the 3 and we find out if he's good enough here.
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