I’ve spent an hour studying at the racing form and I now have a headache. I think there are 5 or 6 horses capable of winning it……really.
Let’s start with the three most obvious, Uncle Sigh, Samraat and Social Inclusion.
#8 Samaraat….He’s got it all going for himself. Tactical speed, 5 wins in a row, hot jock; hot jock-trainer combo; steady work into this. I think the post is OK for the early move toward the front. The one thing that might be his undoing is early speed of the field, if this goes to a ripping pace. Look at his wins and the times of the races in the early going. Aside from his maiden, there hasn’t been classic killer paces, and with this excellent field, it is likely that someone will go big at the start with Samraat having to push a little harder. Nonetheless, this is a great horse and he will be in the mix whether it’s for win, place or show.
#10 Uncle Sigh….I’m sure he and his connections are tired of chasing Samraat around the track, and for his backers, I think he’ll do the same today. Aside from his breathing down Samraat’s rump at the end of the Gotham, I don’t think Sigh has a classic close to catch the potentially hot pace despite the stretch out….similar to some of his Dad’s races. A contender for sure, but I don’t think he can win.
#11 Social Inclusion…..The horse world stopped when he broke the Gulfstream track record last out in beating Honor Code. However, the post here is a potential problem with #8 and #10 vying for inside as well, but if this is truly a great colt, he’ll get out and in early contention. Here is why I will play against. GP was very inside front-speed bias that day…almost ridiculously so...... He ran in a 5 horse field with no one to challenge. Five horses vs. 11 of the best in the east is a huge difference. What’s more is that Honor Code might have been hurt on the track early on during the race, not able to challenge, as it was discovered he has a hind tear. However, if SI is a true freak, it won’t take long to figure out if he’ll be the man on May 3. Must respect, but I will take a stand away.
Now for the rest:
#4 Harpoon….He’s one of two other than the Top 3 that, in my opinion, can win this race, and one of Todd’s “weed layers,” just as Constitution was last weekend. He’ll come late and the stretch to 1-1/8 and a fast pace will help; stellar work coming in. It also helps that he has Johnny V. aboard and that’s worth points. Do yourself a favor and look closely before making your final pick as he has yet to run his race. Today could be the day for the son of hot sire TAPIT.
#7 Shivarelli….This week’s big-time upsetter? Maybe, despite going into just his third career race. Let’s start with his first two races both great runs despite short fields. His work here is the best of anyone in this race and he doesn’t appear to be a morning glory. He’s shown some versatility, so I like the fact that might be able to sit back a bit to watch the leaders before punching it out at the end. Finally, CASTELLANO rides. He rode Constitution and has been terrific this year. A must consider up and down.
#6 Kristo….This is a nice colt who might suffer from a tad of seconditis. He’s got a lot going for him in that Sadler trains with the capable Martin Garcia on top. Terrific workouts for this and he is out of the great Distorted Humor. My concern is his racing out of California, the only place he’s raced. Sadler is sharp, so he’s could be taking a big “nothing to lose” shot here rather than face the competition in the Santa Anita Derby today. I’ll bet on Sadler’s brain, so he is a must consider for at least a piece.
#3 Noble Moon…Nothing wrong with this son of Malibu Moon, who won the Jerome and contended in the Nashua. I think there are better here, but this is a very good horse who could grab a bit of a slice. Off since January 4 with foot problems.
My picks:
I am going to assume a quick pace and the set up for the upset….
#4 Harpoon to win and place
$12 exacta: 4/8, 11
$6 exacta: 10, 11/4, 7
$4 exacta: 4/7,8
$2 tri: 4/7, 8, 10, 11/3,6,7,8,10,11