5.20
Dubai Sheema Classic
This
should revolve around two horses: the Coolmore trained hot favourite
Magician and Japanese raider Gentildonna. Both have everything in
place for big runs with Magician coming off a Breeders Cup Turf
victory remarkably achieved after a long layoff whilst Gentildonna is
coming off a repeat win in the Japan Cup when defeating a weaker
looking field with the margin of victory a nose. She hasn't been
impressive as she was in her Classic year but is still evidently a
very good mare.
Even
if she wasn't as impressive in her second Japan Cup she showed she
still retains a good blend of speed and stamina and I will be very
surprised if Gentildonna finishes out of the first three in the
Sheema Classic given the strength of her Japanese form and she still
holds the majority of the field on previous form. The fact she has
Ryan Moore on board is a huge bonus and she looks an EW banker for
the meeting. The only negative is her wide draw but she showed in her
first Japan Cup triumph, it is not a barrier to success and she
should be able to gain a prominent position with Moore repeating the
trick he pulled off in her Japan Cup triumph.
The
rest of the field outside of Magician looks uninspiring with Denim
and Ruby a danger as she was just beaten a nose by Gentildonna in
receipt of 4lbs. She only get 1lb here and whilst she hasn't a recent
run like her fellow Japanese raider, she does seem to go well fresh
winning on her debut and winning again some four months after a third
in the Japanese Oaks. She is a danger but another year means she must
proved she has trained on as well proved her ability to travel
abroad.
Cirrus
Des Aigles returns for another crack having defeated St Nicholas
Abbey previously in this race two years ago. He is still a top class
horse even at the age of eight and a lesson for American owners who
confine their top class geldings to home and wrap them up in cotton
wool. He has always needed a run to bring him on and he has a similar
preparation as he did when taking this race two years ago. However
last season he seem to take an age to find top gear and could need a
few more runs to achieve peak fitness as he gets older. Despite
winning this two years ago, his record in foreign races outside of
Europe isn't inspiring and whilst respected greatly, he should not be
feared especially given his very wide draw.
The
rest of the field are very much simply average at this level with
familiar names in Dunaden, Ambivalent, Mount Athos, Mars and Meandre
all well exposed and all have much to find with the principals. That
leaves the hot favourite Magician who rates the biggest danger. He
was hugely impressive when displaying a very smart turn of foot to
win the Breeders Cup Turf. As good that looks on paper he will find
this much more tougher then facing the likes of The Fugue and Point
of Entry who are good horses but not quite the Arc de Triomphe or
Champion Stakes class opposition that Gentildonna and Cirrus Des
Aigles will provide.
He
should run a big race as he goes well fresh, handles tight turning
tracks as shown at Chester and Santa Anita, handle the ground though
he looks to prefer VERY firm going and stays the trip. He even
receives weight from those older then 4 with Cirrus Des Aigles
conceding 2lbs to a Classic winner. All in all he is a worthy race
favourite with certainly NO negatives to note. But he will not have
Ryan Moore on board this time and any hold up ride on this track will
require every ounce of Joseph O'Brien's nous and skill to weave his
way through the field. Can Magician show the same potent turn of foot
he showed at the Curragh and in America? How quick will the ground
actually be? It won't be soft but they will have watered the course
extensively. Being drawn well in 4 means Magician has the plum draw
inside slower horses like Mount Athos and Dunaden and Joseph O'Brien
will need to make a decision whether to race prominently or hold him up.
All
in all, this looks strictly a two horse race with Denim and Ruby a
huge danger. Given a common sense ride similarly to Declaration of
War in the Breeders Cup Classic, he should be winning this easily and
had Ryan Moore been booked rather then O'Brien, he'd be a banker. At
a best price 10/3 he is a VERY tempting bet as he has the draw in his
favour with his two big dangers drawn out wide. He is a tempting EW
bet to nothing but I just prefer Gentildonna who will be gunning for
revenge on Coolmore having been beaten by St Nicholas Abbey last
season. Connections have given her a prep run and like Magician she
has everything in her favour apart from a good draw.
But
she has overcome such concerns before and whilst she hasn't been as
impressive as when she defeated Orfevre in her first Japan Cup, she
still has more then enough to win this from the majority of the field
and looks a safer EW bet to nothing then Magician whose only doubt is
his jockey and perhaps a very small class doubt given his main
dangers Gentildonna, Cirrus Des Aigles and Denim and Ruby are a tick
above The Fugue and Point of Entry.
Ante-Post-
Gentildonna 1.25pt EW 4/1 Sportingbet (¼ odds, 4 places)
Giovanni
Boldini, Amber Sky, Gentildonna 0.5pt EW Treble 888sport (3 places)
Ante-Post-
Amber Sky, Gentildonna, Military Attack, Ernest Hemingway- EW Trebles
and 4-Folds Sportingbet (¼ odds, 4 places)