playing three races at NYRA tomorrow. races 7, 8, and 9. all three are on turf. race 7 is a non-graded stakes restricted to 3YO with a field of nine. race 8 is an N3L or 3YO non winners on turf since 1/13 with a field of twelve. race 9 is a G1 for 3YO and older.
rain tonight and throughout tomorrow a little bit but i am expecting it to be rated firm or at the worst good.
the other races on the card don't appeal to me. lots of state bred races and N2L type races. the final dumpfest weekend before the Spa.
playing three races at NYRA tomorrow. races 7, 8, and 9. all three are on turf. race 7 is a non-graded stakes restricted to 3YO with a field of nine. race 8 is an N3L or 3YO non winners on turf since 1/13 with a field of twelve. race 9 is a G1 for 3YO and older.
rain tonight and throughout tomorrow a little bit but i am expecting it to be rated firm or at the worst good.
the other races on the card don't appeal to me. lots of state bred races and N2L type races. the final dumpfest weekend before the Spa.
12/1 ml. pattern, pace, distance. swinging for the fences here. the rest of the field is what it is I don't expect any of them to improve notably in fact I think some may regress or regress further from their current bad recency. this guy has the opportunity to finally put it together and move forward 2nd off the bench (Clement 21% in this spot and 23% on the green and 28% off a win). his PPs are filled with layoffs and has always apparently had issues. entered for the G1 on Belmont day and scratched. now he comes here off an easy win (really a paid workout) after an aggressive sequence of drills leading up to that. i think he's fit and ready to go but we gotta find out if he's good enough. i know that win was at crappy monmouth but he did it easy and he has two solid spins going 10F overseas and i like his race at SA where he made a solid move within that pretty quick final quarter only to be nipped (a premature move by the jock in my view and he was also bumped).
yup, he's light on figs compared to the chalkies (88 and 86 his best here in the U.S.). i am projecting that he might be prepared to move forward enough here to be competitive and thinking that the added distance could help him here as well. i think we might see him make a bold move about 3F out in this 11F spin and try to beat them sprinting home from there (hence why i think his skills fit a possible pace scenario that could benefit him).
fade him if you want a more "proven commodity". he absolutely must improve to win this race so the question is if he is fit and ready to do so and if the distance will help him do so. i'll give him a shot. favs are not HOY type horses here. 0.75 units.
12/1 ml. pattern, pace, distance. swinging for the fences here. the rest of the field is what it is I don't expect any of them to improve notably in fact I think some may regress or regress further from their current bad recency. this guy has the opportunity to finally put it together and move forward 2nd off the bench (Clement 21% in this spot and 23% on the green and 28% off a win). his PPs are filled with layoffs and has always apparently had issues. entered for the G1 on Belmont day and scratched. now he comes here off an easy win (really a paid workout) after an aggressive sequence of drills leading up to that. i think he's fit and ready to go but we gotta find out if he's good enough. i know that win was at crappy monmouth but he did it easy and he has two solid spins going 10F overseas and i like his race at SA where he made a solid move within that pretty quick final quarter only to be nipped (a premature move by the jock in my view and he was also bumped).
yup, he's light on figs compared to the chalkies (88 and 86 his best here in the U.S.). i am projecting that he might be prepared to move forward enough here to be competitive and thinking that the added distance could help him here as well. i think we might see him make a bold move about 3F out in this 11F spin and try to beat them sprinting home from there (hence why i think his skills fit a possible pace scenario that could benefit him).
fade him if you want a more "proven commodity". he absolutely must improve to win this race so the question is if he is fit and ready to do so and if the distance will help him do so. i'll give him a shot. favs are not HOY type horses here. 0.75 units.
1 - likely heavy favorite. solid horse. nice horse. not even close to unbeatable in my humble view. he's had ten grinding spins in the last eight months and you can see he does not fire every time. definitely can win but i will swing against him.
6 - will get bet very heavily as well. he is what he is. very honest. usually tries hard every time. fact is he is not that fast based on figs. i'll try to beat him as well. distance should be fine for this old prick however.
3 - extremely overmatched and over his head here. tossing.
4 - c&*ksucker burned me on belmont day. not sure that race at GP is truly reflective of him and he doesn't appear to like any moisture on the lawn. i'll fade but i suppose he could bounce back I just don't trust him.
5 - i think he simply is not good enough to win this race. tossing.
7 - recency is atrocious. looks washed up. old warrior has run races that would make him very tough here but he sure looks like he is heading the wrong way.
8 - dangerous out front potentially. been hammering some real cream puffs he'll need the race of his life and he's a 6YO so i think he may have hit his ceiling in his last two. dangerous as a bomb if he can get the distance.
1 - likely heavy favorite. solid horse. nice horse. not even close to unbeatable in my humble view. he's had ten grinding spins in the last eight months and you can see he does not fire every time. definitely can win but i will swing against him.
6 - will get bet very heavily as well. he is what he is. very honest. usually tries hard every time. fact is he is not that fast based on figs. i'll try to beat him as well. distance should be fine for this old prick however.
3 - extremely overmatched and over his head here. tossing.
4 - c&*ksucker burned me on belmont day. not sure that race at GP is truly reflective of him and he doesn't appear to like any moisture on the lawn. i'll fade but i suppose he could bounce back I just don't trust him.
5 - i think he simply is not good enough to win this race. tossing.
7 - recency is atrocious. looks washed up. old warrior has run races that would make him very tough here but he sure looks like he is heading the wrong way.
8 - dangerous out front potentially. been hammering some real cream puffs he'll need the race of his life and he's a 6YO so i think he may have hit his ceiling in his last two. dangerous as a bomb if he can get the distance.
also think the 1 is no lock going 11F here. he runs a bit evenly late i'm not sold he will reach or exceed that 100 and 101 he has gotten going out to 11F.
also think the 1 is no lock going 11F here. he runs a bit evenly late i'm not sold he will reach or exceed that 100 and 101 he has gotten going out to 11F.
5/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern, pace. full field of nine going on the inner green here so tighter turns could be tougher to make a move from the clouds. this 3 has been a knucklehead and erratic but he really put it all together last out. yes, it had an n2L designation but it was an allowance race not a toilet dump and the two behind him came back to win. i like how he sat just off the pace in total control and then he was moving really well as they hit the quarter pole and drew away with some juice. has the highest fig in the field on the green. bounced back with two maintenance drills since. mcclaughlin is 23% off a 31-60 day break, 17% on the lawn, and 27% off a win. i like how he's had about six weeks off here. like his improving pattern. he looks ready to go today and fit.
now, all that said he's been erratic as i said. he got bet down to chalkie in his debut at the Spa and totally threw in the towel when he faced adversity ("brush after break, folded"). in his third start and second at GP in the winter facing winners he was steadied on the turn. two back ("hit gate start, willingly") he had trouble getting going out of the gate. so, he isn't exactly the most polished fella. he might be the fastest here if he gets a clean trip and given i like him on pace relative to this field i can see a cozy trip.
he will get bet but with all the Pletcher and Chad Brown here I can see him staying around 9/2ish. i think many of these have not shown much improvement but they will get bet based on J/T and "back class".
5/1 ml. recency, late speed, pattern, pace. full field of nine going on the inner green here so tighter turns could be tougher to make a move from the clouds. this 3 has been a knucklehead and erratic but he really put it all together last out. yes, it had an n2L designation but it was an allowance race not a toilet dump and the two behind him came back to win. i like how he sat just off the pace in total control and then he was moving really well as they hit the quarter pole and drew away with some juice. has the highest fig in the field on the green. bounced back with two maintenance drills since. mcclaughlin is 23% off a 31-60 day break, 17% on the lawn, and 27% off a win. i like how he's had about six weeks off here. like his improving pattern. he looks ready to go today and fit.
now, all that said he's been erratic as i said. he got bet down to chalkie in his debut at the Spa and totally threw in the towel when he faced adversity ("brush after break, folded"). in his third start and second at GP in the winter facing winners he was steadied on the turn. two back ("hit gate start, willingly") he had trouble getting going out of the gate. so, he isn't exactly the most polished fella. he might be the fastest here if he gets a clean trip and given i like him on pace relative to this field i can see a cozy trip.
he will get bet but with all the Pletcher and Chad Brown here I can see him staying around 9/2ish. i think many of these have not shown much improvement but they will get bet based on J/T and "back class".
5/1 ml. recency, pattern, distance, pace, speed. this is a plump field of twelve here going 7/8ths with some inconsistent fellas in this one. grueling sprint distance i see a few of these throwing in the towel here and some sketchy class droppers. i think this race is a solid fit for this 7. he came back from a long layoff in April after really performing terribly for two seasons so obviously he had some issues. ran a pretty solid race off the bench going two turns and 8F on the lawn at a higher class level but given it was Aqueduct maybe lateral to this crew today. then ran a tough race going today's distance at belmont with a fig that is competitive here. you might wonder why i like his recency since he was awful last out but that was coming back too quick in my view and stretching out. two solid drills since and back to 7F today with a little pace in front of him. also takes a little drop from 35K to 20K today which I view as reasonable and not suspicious. he's had almost six weeks since his last and going back to 7F i expect him to be giving a solid effort in the lane here today and in this full field maybe he can take this down. tough race given the field size and distance.
given the field size his price should hold up and the 2, 5, 9, and 11 should attract plenty of support. 0.75 units.
5/1 ml. recency, pattern, distance, pace, speed. this is a plump field of twelve here going 7/8ths with some inconsistent fellas in this one. grueling sprint distance i see a few of these throwing in the towel here and some sketchy class droppers. i think this race is a solid fit for this 7. he came back from a long layoff in April after really performing terribly for two seasons so obviously he had some issues. ran a pretty solid race off the bench going two turns and 8F on the lawn at a higher class level but given it was Aqueduct maybe lateral to this crew today. then ran a tough race going today's distance at belmont with a fig that is competitive here. you might wonder why i like his recency since he was awful last out but that was coming back too quick in my view and stretching out. two solid drills since and back to 7F today with a little pace in front of him. also takes a little drop from 35K to 20K today which I view as reasonable and not suspicious. he's had almost six weeks since his last and going back to 7F i expect him to be giving a solid effort in the lane here today and in this full field maybe he can take this down. tough race given the field size and distance.
given the field size his price should hold up and the 2, 5, 9, and 11 should attract plenty of support. 0.75 units.
race 7 - good news and bad news. good news the rail out at 18 feet could help the 3 given where i see him on pace. bad news the 4 and 8 are scratched so the price will drop on the 3. 4 woulda got some cash but i faded based on distance/surface but he woulda got some play because of pletcher. 8 i thought was a bomb that could hit the board but he's coming back quick maybe he just isn't feeling it.
race 7 - good news and bad news. good news the rail out at 18 feet could help the 3 given where i see him on pace. bad news the 4 and 8 are scratched so the price will drop on the 3. 4 woulda got some cash but i faded based on distance/surface but he woulda got some play because of pletcher. 8 i thought was a bomb that could hit the board but he's coming back quick maybe he just isn't feeling it.
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