Belmont Analysis

An outstanding field, for sure, with several who can win from top to bottom and nasty weather looming. I’ll let locals weigh in on how the track plays after it’s been sealed, but having been to Belmont a few times when there was rain; I know they do a fine job of keeping the surface in good order. Let’s get to it:

#1 Frac Daddy….What a nightmare Derby he had. To win this would take a monumental effort at huge odds. The switch to Alan Garcia is an upgrade, but I just don’t see it. His highest Beyer is 91 in his maiden win and he hasn’t come close since. They really need to cut him back to a mile or 1-1/16 to be competitive.

#2 Freedom Child….Lots of guys are making him the go-to horse after his performance in the Peter Pan. He was truly spectacular. However, I will say now what I said after that race……While FC certainly can win the Belmont, in my opinion, , no one really went with him in the Pan with My Name is Michael and Abraham giving up early. In addition, the field wasn't very stellar and, in fact, it was on par with, maybe, the Illinois Derby. I also wonder if he left his best race on the track in the PP. He will likely contend in the slop, but I just don’t think FC meets the standards of the best of this field.

#3 Overanalyze….I like him for the possibility of a minor award in the Derby, but he fell apart in mid-race. I can forgive him for that and toss his Derby. I think he is capable of entering superfecta/tri territory, especially with Johnny V. aboard. Check his work coming in at this track. Not bad. Take a close look for exotics.

#4 Giant Finish….I pretty much forgot he was in the Derby finishing 10^th and dawdling in mid-pack. He seems to have some sort of problem every time he runs, but recovers for a decent speed figure. It might take a huge breakdown for him to win as he has yet to run his career race. If he stays out of trouble with the right trip, maybe he grabs a piece?

#5 Orb….I just can’t get passed him as this is a great horse who is always game. His recent work here after a frightful Preakness tells me he’ll be back to his Derby form.  I think he’ll get the pace he needs today and will be there at the end. Fool Shug once, but not twice.

#6 Incognito….My pick in the Peter Pan, and what a mistake that was as he had no interest. Even at that, I just don’t think he can compete with these.

#7 Oxbow….Make no mistake about it, he was great in the Preakness and hail to Stevens for keeping him alive in deep stretch. Everything went his way that day at Pimlico, but this is a different day, at a different track with weather issues. Not sure why he didn’t work here with Wayne opting to condition at CD. He’ll be gunning against Freedom Child and one or two others upfront with a ton of closing power behind.  If Stevens keeps him up going into the final furlong, he could catch a nice award, but I don’t think his speed will hold today.

#8 Midnight Taboo….Only three lifetime races, so why would you put him in this? I learned a long time ago not to question Todd’s motives….maybe he is setting him up for the Travers? I’ll just shut my mouth and watch, but I don’t think he can win this.

#9 Revolutionary….. I have read a lot of bad comments about his Derby effort and I don’t understand the vitriol. This is a good horse who could win this with certain circumstances. He has a decent post for this; he has slop, which he can navigate, and I love the move off Borel to Castellano, who is 28% wins in tandem with Pletch. A lot to like here, but he might need a few things to go his way with the stretch to 1-1/2 miles.

#10 Will Take Charge….This horse makes my head hurt and I don’t see why he is here. He can be a winner in lesser conditioned stakes down the road. I just don’t see him doing anything of import today.

#11 Vyjack….Is his Derby a toss? Probably so. He’s done well in NY, but this is his first time at Belmont. I am not sure how this guy will fare today, but he has done well against decent competition, Derby aside, and he gets Leparoux, a big plus. Don’t be surprised if he does something good today.

#12 Palace Malace….I liked his chances for some in the Derby, but he was pretty awful and done early. He has one career win in 7 starts and is headed for classic underachiever status. That said, he might show up today. To win, he needs to run incredibly big, and with Mike Smith aboard coming from deep, he just might.

#13 Unlimited Budget…..Make no mistake about it, this filly is no Rags to Riches having finished third in the Ky. Oaks. However, this is a terrific horse with her only blemish in the Oaks after winning her first four races. However, she is up against Orb, Oxbow, Revolutionary and other tough males. Rosie aboard is a helper. Perhaps an award if things click.

#14 Golden Soul….I backed into the exacta in the Derby because of this guy, and I am grateful. However, I still don’t know what to make of that performance. I just don’t trust Albarado, but he is trying to re-prove himself after his “incident” last year and this race, coupled with his Derby, will go a long way toward getting him back in the good graces of trainers and owners. It bothers me a lot that the horse has had just one work since the Derby, and that was at Churchill. Dallas Stewart is a trainer that goes against the grain, so I will defer to him. It will take a lot to match that 100 Beyer he hit in L’vlle, but the way this race sets up, he just might be flying again at the end.

My picks:

I think he bounces back and goes big or doesn’t go at all….

#5 ORB to win and place

$16 exacta key:  5/9,11,14

$6 exacta key: 5/7,12, 13

$4 tri wheel: 5/9,11,13,14/3,7,9,11,12,13,14

$1 tri wheel:  9,11,14/5/3,7,9,11,12,13,14

Will do....probably won't have the schedule until later this week.

Thank you for your kind comment.....congrats to you on the Orb call too. My problem is that, like a lot of the so-called experts from drf and other outlets, I grossly overestimated Orb. Much of it, I think, was due to the field he was up against, for which I, regretfully, had little respect.

Lesson learned for me!