Preakness

Good day freaks

Time to shut off those vampire movies and get out of your parents' basement. BIG race today.

Kentucky Derby was exciting - our most likely winner did indeed win - but unfortunately - we tried for a better price and ...Normandy Invasion looked good mid stretch but could not finish the deal. We are NO DOUBT pulling for Orb but will try and beat him again given his sure to be short price.

#1 Orb

Horse to beat without a doubt. 4/4 this yr. Moved forward nicely off a pair of 97 Beyers...Could move forward one more time and crush the field - then regress for the Belmont....Working well - superhuman jockey....Running style a plus provided he doesnt get buried on the rail....Horse to beat without a doubt.

#2 Goldencents

Part of hot pace in the K Derby...Still not sure he can repeat that 105 in the SA Derby....No posted works since the Derby....Stopped last race track conditions notwithstanding....4/7 lifetime.....May get into some early speed trouble again with Titletown and Lucky and maybe the Gov'ner....Will need to be at his best to hold off field of solid closers and dont think he will be able to do it.

#3 Titletown. No shot. Then again - Bill in the forum nailed a BOMB that hit the ticket in the Derby that we never saw coming so who knows?? Cant believe he will be more than an early speed presence.

#4 Departing

Our philosophy will be to take two horses that figure to run their best race today. This is one of them. Off a big win from post 13 - in a questionable field no doubt - but he is 4/5 - has never done anything wrong and comes into this race fresh....Ed Note - "Who has he beat?" may be a valid argument but who has anyone beat? Who have you beat? What has anyone really done? Who has Orb beat? I mean the logic is pretty silly when talking about relatively unproven rapidly improving 3 yr old horses. Departing should get a nice pace to run at and gets Lasix for the second time - can project another big move forward but not sure it will be enough to win. ONE OF OUR PLAYS.

rest of the field upcoming........

rest to come......

#5 Mylute

Powerful closer. Super jock. Just have to pass on a horse that has not won yet as a 3 yr old and has shown the propensity to hang in the stretch....Definite player for top 3 - have to ignore for win spot potentially at our peril.

#6 Oxbow

Was the final horse to be cut looking for a value play. Up close in fast early fractions and lived to tell about it finishing 6th !....Has been saddled with tough posts - 10 or 11 in half his races - and now gets mid gate...Can race any way and have to believe he will be in the mix coming home....Again looking at the propensity to win the horse is 2/10 lifetime....Likely to hit superfecta just cant use on top for big dollaaa.

#7 Will Take Charge

Brutal trip in K Derby....2/4 this yr....Has never really been well backed at the windows but winning nonetheless including a 28-1 score in the Rebel....Like the jock change but maybe in the minority in that view.....Another possibility to catch a late piece hard to distinguish between the closers once you get past Orb. A license to improve but probably not enough to win

#8 Governor Charlie

Fits our profile. Fantastic but limited racing career so far. 2/3 with a respectable 2nd. Off since March but has been working well. Fresh horse and nobody really knows how good this guy is....I mean off that 94/95 paired Beyer pattern no telling how much better he can be today particularly stalking from mid pack.....Tons of upside and that's what we like - of course - probably 80% chance he misses the tri but will be a price and has every chance to step up and amaze. OUR SECOND KEY.

#9 Itsmyluckyday

Just not impressed with anything other than the 2 freak jobs at Gulfstream in January. Tough post IMO with his running style and cant see him staying up with a hot pace and having enough left late.

So........

Most likely winner

Orb

Next tier of likely winners

Mylute

Goldencents

Departing

Bombs

Governor Charlie

Oxbow

Will Take Charge

Total Surprise

Lucky

Prison Style Shocker

Titletown

Wagering Strategy

Will try and get #4, #8 live in the pick 4 or pick 3 and then play them for 2nd/3rd in Preakness below top horses. If we die before that like last wk....Will make win bets and some exactas.

GL to all !! MEGA

agree Orb gonna be tough to beat if he is anywhere close to the lead top stretch !

would love to see him win to set up the Belmont triple crown try

totally agree buddy - so tough to win on the big races but as a fan i always get a little bit of cash down but not as much as during the regular cards during the meet. but i also understand it sucks to lose and have no problem with showing up !

a bit disappointed i had 4,6,8 as winners to key and tossed the wrong one but that happens all the time.