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Author: [Horse Racing] Topic: Derby angles that work
vetdrm
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#1
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:07:11 PM
Thought it would be neat if we could come up with some angles that may prove worthwhile betting the Kentucky Derby.

Early Potential Indicator (1974-2012)

30 of the last 38 Derby winners broke their maiden in their first or second start in their 2YO season. This is 78.9%. Note: this held true for the last 11 consecutive Derby winners. 

Verrazano         No races at 2 years
Revolutionary   4 tries in breaking maiden  hmmm...
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#2
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:45:45 PM
Orb and oxbow fall in that category too
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#3
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:49:15 PM
I love all the info stats and angles i can get. Where did you get that from?
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vetdrm
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#4
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:52:45 PM
Yes Barber.Just noticed that.
Would love to eliminate Orb and Rev.but it aint ez is it.
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#5
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:56:17 PM
Well you dont have to eliminate them but it sure helps to narrow down a key horse. Even if you just made a couple bets based on that stat could workout.
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#6
Posted: 4/29/2013 9:58:46 PM
No its not easy especially with how good Orb worked today. I could leave Rev off with Borel riding he'll be way overbet anyway. Not to mention Castellano was quick to give up the mount on Revolutionary
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#7
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:00:02 PM
Based on that stat it would probably put me on Goldencents or Normandy Invasion with Black Onyx has a longshot play
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vetdrm
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#8
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:07:21 PM
Imld is getting a lot of cred from what Im seeing.
On thee other hand.Verrazano not getting much love from what I read 
Many people talk about his declining figures as his distance increased over his last three races.All wins I might add.

I would like Vs odds to get up to 5-1 Sat but thats just wishful thinking on my part
Some of the sites I visit often are 

http://www.pedigreequery.com
Bloodhorse.com
About.com


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#9
Posted: 4/29/2013 10:22:45 PM
I got orb and Vs odds at 4-1 today. I don't think they will do anything but drop from there. I think the winner will come from one of those two. The way orb looked today hes going to be hard to beat.
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#10
Posted: 4/29/2013 11:12:38 PM
Lets hope the weather holds out and its not a sloppy track...all the hard work and analyzing will be thrown out the window and then i may have to hit Black Onyx and cross my fingers.

I like Orb and V also but will wait and see where they post from!!

3 of last 5 winners were from aux gate and
 8 of last 18 = 44% since 1995

and will anybody ever win from the 17 post...lol
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#11
Posted: 4/30/2013 6:54:54 AM
the fountain of youth winner has not won the KD since 1995.....
FOY Winner this year - Orb
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#12
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:05:35 AM
the Wood Memorial has not produced a KD winner since 2003
Verrazano, Normandy Invasion, Vyjack

the Louisiana Derby has only produced 3 KD winners 2003,1996,1924
Revolutionary, Mylute, Palace Malice, Golden Soul

the Florida Derby has produced  winners the last 12 2008, 2006,2001
 Orb, Itsmyluckyday, Fracdaddy


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#13
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:07:30 AM
the Tampa Bay Derby has produced 2 winners in the last 6 2010,2007
Verrazano, Javas War, Falling Sky

some of these are conflicting but the more information the better i think.
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#14
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:08:50 AM

since 1992 through to 2008 there has only been two winners who did NOT achieve a three figure Beyer speed rating prior to the Derby. Since 2008, the three winners in Mine that Bird, Super Saver and Animal Kingdom has not achieved the previously thought requisite criteria to win a Kentucky Derby of a three figure Beyer speed rating prior to their triumph. Can this recent run of winners demonstrating substandard Beyer ratings prior to their Derby triumph be sustained?

 In just four years, it is far too small a sample size to give up on the triple digit Beyer speed rating as THE definitive statistic for finding a Kentucky Derby winner.

Only four likely Derby contenders have recorded a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, and they combine for just six in total. The 100+ Beyer horses are Verrazano (105 in an optional claimer, 101 in the Tampa Bay Derby), Itsmyluckyday (102 in the Gulfstream Park Derby, 104 in the Holy Bull), Goldencents (105 in the Santa Anita Derby), and Revolutionary (102 in a maiden win).

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#15
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:11:35 AM
Nice info angryB! My three all ran in Florida Derby! :o Really fascinating race.

Dosage Index

This is by far the most popular way of figuring out who has the stamina to stay the Derby distance of 1m 2f. In technical terms, Dosage Index (DI) is a metaphor for genetic suitability to ten furlongs. A simple explanation is that dosage figures a given contender's distance potential based on stallions from the first 4 generations of that horse's pedigree. It's a genetically-based theory that takes into account not only how well certain ancestors of the horse did, but also how far back in the horse's line they are. Points are awarded for speed and stamina of top-notch horses that often appear in contenders' pedigrees. These superstallions are called "chefs de race."

Any horse with a dosage of 4.00 or less is supposed to be able to make the derby distance. So far, since the derby began in 1875, only four winners have had dosages higher than 4.00; however, all of those were relatively recently. They were Strike The Gold in 1991, Real Quiet in 1998, Charismatic in 1999 and Giacomo in 2005. Because of a reclassification of his sire, Strike the Gold would now qualify. 

 The average DI since 1940 is 2.27. The average DI in the past 13 years is 2.94 and that includes Real Quiet’s 5.29, Charismatic’s 5.22, Giacamo’s 4.33 and Mine That Bird’s 5.40. In the English Derby, the DI of winners are considerably lower then that in the Kentucky Derby. Whilst just 2f shorter, the pace angle is considerably much more weighted in the American version with more weight placed on the physicality of the horse given the demanding nature of racing on dirt which places more stress on horses then it does on turf.

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#16
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:12:17 AM

Dual Qualifiers

 

Dual qualifiers are those horses that not only have a dosage of 4.00 or less but also are within 10 pounds of the high weight in the Experimental Free Handicap rating. It is based only on races from the contenders' 2-year-old season. But the dual qualifier angle has only had limited success. Only two of the last 14 winners, Street Sense in 2007 and Super Saver in 2010, were dual qualifiers.

 

Dual Qualifiers in this year's race are: Frac Daddy, Goldencents, Overanalyze and Normandy Invasion.

 

Raise A Native Sire Line

 

Twelve Derby winners so far had the horse Raise A Native in their sire line, meaning the line of male horses extending back directly from the sire. (In other words, the sire's sire, and his sire, and his sire, etc.)

 

Some interesting statistics similarly to the Wild Risk/Vimy bloodline for the Grand National won by Aurora’s Encore who possessed the Vimy bloodline.

 

14 of the last 25 winners (56%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.

 

11 of the last 17 winners (65%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.

 

8 of the last 12 winners (67%) come from the RAISE A NATIVE sire line.

 

Horses in this year's race with Raise A Native in their sire lines are:

 

Code West, Mylute, Governor Charlie, Palace Malice, Will Take Charge

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#17
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:12:40 AM

Preparation Profiles

 

Big Brown, in 2008, was the first horse since Sunny's Halo in 1983 to win without more than 2 prep races at age 3.  Those trying this year are

 

Also, the vast majority had at least a third place finish in their last prep, but in 2005 Giacomo went on to win the Derby after having been 4th in his previous race.

 

Barbaro, the 2006 Derby winner, was the first horse since Needles in 1956 to win the Derby without a race four weeks or fewer before it. It should be noted, however, that this number is likely to increase because of the movement of the Florida Derby, a key prep race, to 5 weeks before the Derby. 

 

Fillies, gelding and unraced at two also have hugely negative statistics.
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#18
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:19:59 AM
Not inclined to pay too much attention to dosage index and dual qualifiers but the preparation profile for me is the most important. Really liking Frac Daddy! lol.. 50/1 a nice price with 365 for sure. Looks way too big and gone in again! lol.. Just hope he turns up and make the first three at the least.

Orb for me, has more versatility of all the closers who looks one dimensional and reliant on luck in running. Also has jockey of the moment Joel Rosario on board. Itsmyluckyday gone under the radar (well here anyway!) but really like the fitness angle. Co-incidence he's won all dirt race coming off a recent run 5 weeks or less? We shall see! He has no excuses really and if he's good enough he'll go close with luck in running not too big a factor given his prominent style.
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#19
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:25:41 AM
going back to 2001 6 of the last 12 KD winners had previously won a grade 1 race before the KD

2012- Ill Have Another
2008- Big Brown
2007- Street Sense
2006- Barbaro
2004-Smarty Jones
2001- Monarchos
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#20
Posted: 4/30/2013 7:29:36 AM
great info GC, by the way i cashed alot of your turf picks breeders cup weekend so thanks for those!!!
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#21
Posted: 4/30/2013 9:33:00 AM
It's been 131 years since a horse has won that didn't race as a 2 year old. Verrazano fits that.
Another note is his Beyer speed figures are going down. Great 3 year olds that didnt run as a 2 year old get better with each start and I don't see that in him. Might mean he has peaked already.
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#22
Posted: 4/30/2013 2:01:16 PM
Good to hear AngryB! Love that meeting. Still much prefer National Hunt! Youtube it! Grand National and Cheltenham Gold Cup. Best horse is SPrinter Sacre. Take a look. Never backed it in my life! Far too short but understandably so. Also Blackstairsmountain in the Grand Jump in Japan. Cracking action there. Take a look :D

Don't mind top quality flat but hard to get excited about it unless it's pattern class races at the highest level. Been following last weekend's action closely and GoldShip very disappointing. Was hot favourite in Japan the the Kinen in June looks a real guy of a race with Orfevre, Gentildonna and Goldship all set to clash. Hope they all get there!

CapP and AngryB, great stats. The two year old thing is understandable and in any case, wasn't that impressive in the Wood Memorial imo. Got a great tactical ride but think in the KD, there will surely be a jockey with a rush of blood to the head and they'll charge into the first bend! BEst of luck and cannot wait!

Don't forget Guineas weekend in the UK. Colts on Saturday and fillies on Sunday. George Vancouver and What a Name my ante-post picks. Played Agent Allison for peanuts at big prices but not sure I'll get involved any further. GL
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#23
Posted: 4/30/2013 3:08:10 PM
isnt there an angle where if the jockey never rode the horse before the derby? the horse never wins?

i read it here some few years back.
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#24
Posted: 4/30/2013 3:32:49 PM
94% of Derby Winners have finished 1st 2nd or 3rd in final prep race.

Favs won Derby only 4 times since 1979

Favs came in 2nd just 4 times in past 20 years

Only 2 geldings ever won Derby
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#25
Posted: 4/30/2013 5:25:10 PM
Stewart elliot and mario guitierez never rode in the derby before they won it
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