Kentucky Derby

UK odds

Verrazano (9/2), Orb (6), Goldencents (10), Normandy Invasion (10), Overanalyze (10), Revolutionary (10), Itsmyluckyday (14), Javas War (16), Vyjack (16), Govenor Charlie (20), Lines Of Battle (20), Palace Malice (25), Purple Egg (25), River Seven (25), Will Take Charge (25), Black Onyx (33), Charming Kitten (33), Code West (33), Demonic (33), Dice Flavor (33)

Any strong views? Also can someone point myself to a site that contains Beyer speed figures for all entries? Thanks.

FWIW, I'm already on Orb and Itsmyluckyday at 10/1 and 16/1 respectively from a few weeks ago. Huge fan of Lines of Battle from Ireland but Aidan O'Brien has yet to show he can indeed master the art of training a Kentucky Derby winner.

Shortlist:

Orb
Interesting runner and he is one horse whose stamina is guaranteed as evidenced in the Fountain of Youth stakes at Gulfstream when the early pace was VERY strong causing the entire race to collapse in the run for home with the final two furlongs clocked at an even 27 seconds with the field running sub-12 seconds furlongs in the early part of the race. As the pace collapsed rounding the home turn Orb bounded forward. He continued to close rapidly and took the lead with half a furlong left to score going away by half a length.

 

In the Florida Derby, the time was slow BUT Orb still demonstrated he doesn’t need a suicidal gallop from the front runners to win and showed his stamina once again staying on strongly.

Orb's pedigree is interesting as it suggests unusual stamina for a US bred. This is not surprising as he was bred by his owners the Ogden Phipps family who have an old-fashioned approach to breeding that emphasises stamina. His dam's best run was when she stayed on strongly late into fourth in the Grade 3 Glens Falls handicap at Saratoga over eleven furlongs. Her only previous winning foal scored over that same distance. This is highly significant as in America only 0.6% of races are longer than nine furlongs and only a handful are longer than ten furlongs. Orb's sire Malibu Moon only raced twice but gets a lot of ten furlong horses.

 

Going by connections’ past record, we could interpret Orb’s potential appearance in the big race as significant as the Ogden-Phipps and their trainer Shug McGaughey are very conservative. They seem to shun the Derby these days for the same reason a lot of British jumps trainers shun the Triumph Hurdle - it's a very tough, crowded race that can bottom a young horse. Despite having plenty of smart horses supplied by the Ogden-Phipps', McGaughey has had just a single Kentucky Derby runner since 1989.

 

If Orb does skip the Derby, his abundant stamina would make him an interesting contender later on for the Belmont Stakes over a mile and a half or the Travers Stakes over a mile and a quarter. If he does line up, he may well need a little luck in running given his hold up style but in some ways, he reminds myself of Animal Kingdom who won the Kentucky Derby from way back and that smart animal showed it can be done.

Goldencents
I think the jockey rode a super tactical race in the Santa Anita Derby when forcing Flashback to go wide and kicking clear when he saw his rival making his move. The way Flashback came back suggests Goldencents remains vulnerable but on the positive side, the time was very good and I liked the way he rallied when Flashback came back at him.

Normandy Invasion

If Verazzano is the favourite, Normandy Invasion must hold a big chance at a bigger price as I felt Verazzano got the run of the race benefiting from a super tactical ride from John Velasquez who stole a march on his rivals kicking clear from 4f out.

 

I’d fancy Normandy Invasion to reverse form with Verazzano as he looks the horse most disadvantaged by the way the race was run. He's a one run closer that can produce a tremendous late charge. But here his big finish was blunted by the fact the winner had been allowed to go so slow early and had a four length lead on him turning in. Normandy Invasion closed the gap quite rapidly in the final furlong and was just three quarters of a length down at the finish.

 

However Normandy Invasion's ultra-late running style could get him into traffic trouble in the Kentucky Derby but he surely has a big shot of reversing this form with the winner over an extra furlong, off a near certain stronger early pace up the longer home straight at Churchill Downs.

Itsmyluckyday

Going on his record, Itsmyluckyday needs a recent run to produce his best. He is a good-sized, strong, mature, classy sort that clocked a seriously fast time winning the Gulfstream Park Derby on his previous start before the Holy Bull and he ran just as fast to lower the course record. That win meant that he has now won all five times he's run on dirt following a vaguely recent run.

 

His connections announced after his last run in January that they were going to lay him off and bring him back for the Florida Derby in order to ensure he hit the Derby in peak form. If he'd been kept on the go (and run in the Fountain of Youth as well as the Florida Derby) there was a high risk he'd have suffered from burn out. With just under five weeks to the Kentucky Derby from his second behind Orb in the Florida Derby, a fitter Itsmyluckyday can improve on this run. Whether he can reverse form with Orb may well rely on traffic problems for his rival.

Frac Daddy
 In the Arkansas Derby Frac Daddy stayed on well to take second. The winner cut across him slightly as he was trying to go for a gap. But he got rolling again soon after so I think the stewards were right to quickly dismiss the trainer's objection. However the way Frac Daddy was starting to get away from the rest of the field in the last half furlong in a race not run to suit him was meritorious. Off a stronger early pace and over an extra furlong in the Kentucky Derby he has as good chance as any and does look a big price.

 

His previous run in the Holy Bull was all wrong as Frac Daddy worked himself into a muck sweat by the time the race began and fretted his chance away and his Arkansas Derby run shows he still retain the scope to improve further.

 

You won’t see many horses visibly hating a muddy track as much as he did on his racecourse debut. As they started to round the first turn and he felt the centrifugal force threaten to make him slip he shortened his stride dramatically to keep himself safe and lost ground rapidly. Then as the hometurn started to get easier he gained confidence and started striding out more fully. He moved up and looked set to take the lead but then drifted on over all the way to the running rail, seemed to actually bounce of it briefly then continued on as the rail kept him straight to finish second. There’s no question that on a normal fast surface he would have been a wide margin winner.

 

Next time out Frac Daddy got a normal fast surface and was indeed a wide margin winner. He staked close to the pace, took the lead entering the straight and came away rapidly to score by nearly ten lengths in seriously fast time - around Grade 2/3 class for a 2YO.

In his next and most recent start before the Holy Bull in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club at Churchill Frac Daddy was kept wide of his rivals in third place while moving well. He then closed up with little effort to dispute the lead rounding the home turn and looked set for an easy win. Unfortunately all the way up the homestraight all he wanted to do was lean on the eventual winner Uncaptured and virtually pin him to the rail. Frac Daddy was running really green and simply couldn’t be straightened. He passed the post a head behind Uncaptured despite clearly moving much better and having plenty in reserve.

 

Trainer Ken McPeek says Frac Daddy reminds him of his damsire Skip Away. There’s a fair bit to that. Frac Daddy is gray, he’s big-bodied and he shows knee action just like Skip Away. Right now though he has not filled his frame and clearly has a bit of growing and strengthening to do. He also needs to learn a bit more about racing, in particular staying focused and not making a bee line for his friend the running rail as soon as he‘s in the clear.

Frac Daddy does run like a potential Grade 1 horse that wants to go the Derby distance. The half furlong cut back to a mile probably stretched him here.

 

Before his Holy Bull run, it looks like he was a bit short of work too given his conditioning. But in the long run this was a big plus as he was clearly being trained with the Derby in mind. Whether he gets to the race all depends on how much he can grow physically and mentally between now and then. Only connections will know if they intend to confirm his entry.

 

Just added Frac Daddy at 50/1 with 365 to go with Orb and Itsmyluckyday. Just hoping they all line up! Best of luck!

Of the other two Overanalyze and Revolutionary, both have demerits about them that would precludes, rightly or wrongly (!!) serious considerations for them. Overanalyze's pedigree is off-putting with severe stamina doubts. He is also a 6 furlong winner as a two year old and despite an attractive profile, he's an easy pass.

Revolutionary is tougher as whilst he's been winning his last three starts, he hasn't caught the eye on the clock and look to have running quirks to boot. Revolutionary despite his win in the Louisana Derby has shown a tendency to shy away from running traffic. In a huge field, that could be problematic and he will need strong handling from Calvin Borel if he is to win. All in all, there appears to be stronger contenders at even bigger prices and we can't back them all!

Certainly looking forward to the race! In England we have the Guineas on the same day. George Vancouver my ante-post pick for the 2000 Guineas with What a Name the 1000 Guineas play. May 4th will be a great day for horse-racing fans! Best of luck!

Thanks for the write-up. It is always pleasant to read a well expressed opinion of a sporting event. And the effort is appreciated. THE Kentucky Derby is always the start of summer and always fun. Win or lose.

Strange that Purple Egg and River Seven even have odds for them.  Neither have a chance at making the field

Going with the closers  Normandy Inv  and Java's War

Bookies in the UK price up everything! Even if they're not running. You never know!

Libra55 and HolyBull, Cheers. Any personal views on the race?

Stark3, NOrmandy Invasion and Java's War will need plenty of luck in running. This looks likely a strongly run race so in their favour, a strong pace will help but I just prefer Orb as the closer pick. Granted your two are bigger prices so best of luck!

Soon, as HOly noted, Itsmyluckyday did not run in the Wood Memorial. You have a horse in mind? Mistaken identity?

Pros

Normandy Invasion sure gets a ton of press for a horse with 1 win,he reminds me of Nehro. he may run a good race in the derby but IMO he has no shot of winning. not to mention his work on monday was not very good. 

WowWowWowWow......super stuff, GC.... Thank you for posting and please keep us in the loop.

No opinions just yet.  I have started to peruse the PPs, videos and breeding, however preoccupied with other committments the past couple weeks.

Will certainly get into it some time this weekend.

HB

Beyers, good luck

https://www.allhorseracing.ag/kentucky-derby/contenders/speed-figures

thank you Bill1947!

Soon, Angry, Vet, good points. I don't fancy Normandy Invasion but could be persuaded into a small match bet with Verrazano if bookies price it up!

HolyBull, look forward to your thoughts!

Mikeyp, thanks and I hope you'll express your views here!

Orb, Itsmyluckyday and Frac Daddy my three vs the field. All on early. I don't know if Americans do ante-post or futures as you call it over there but definitely love that way of betting!

On the day, I may do some exactas with Goldencents included too.

Right now, my focus is on the 1000 and 2000 Guineas in the UK on the same weekend. Should be a good day!

The pace angle is interesting. I had thought a strong pace would be likely but on DRF Byron King's article disagrees strongly citing only Falling Sky, Verrazano and Goldencents as likely front-runners. I think the jockeys will play a critical part for sure. The Stalkers as he called it in Itsmyluckyday, Oxbow, Vyjack, Frac Daddy, Lines of Battle, and Palace Malice could hold the key. If the pace is slow, it's up to those jockeys to kick on and ensure the pace horses in Goldencents and Verrazano have their stamina tested. If they allow the two speed horses the run of the race, they do lessen the chance of a closer winning but may well find themselves outpaced by the speed duo who would have held enough in reserves to withstand late charges from the closing pack.

Orb's jockey Joel Rosario really impressed me in the Dubai World Cup on Animal Kingdom and he gave him a beautifully judged ride from a prominent tracking position in a departure from his normal hold up style. I think Rosario will have Orb in the stalker or mid pack closer position as King's terms it and kick on 3f out similarly as he did in the FLorida Derby and he did in the Dubai World Cup. If he does, he'll force the field to quicken with him stealing a march on the deep closers and more importantly ensure that stamina should win the day rather then speed.

Itsmyluckyday couldn't hold the charge of Orb and whilst I like his chances, Orb looks the one to beat especially if Rosario has Orb in a prominent position.

Verrazano will be up front throughout and crap out to show.  I really like:

itsmyluckyday, but his jockey sucks bad.  its like he didn;t even see orb coming past 'em in florida

java's war has a nice, nice kick.

in a sloppy race, the alternate FearTheKitten showed a nice gap close in past slopfest.  But he's reallllly slow!

Overanalyze does not look like he will tire.

Charming kitten is always on the outside lookin' in with nice holding speed. always finishes near front.


PICKS:

9,19/9,12,14-15,19/9,12,14-15,19
TRI:$3/72

9,14-15,19 BOX EX$5/60
9,19   WIN$25/50
15 SHOW$25

TOTAL:$207


I PICK 3 HORSES EACH YEAR TO COME IN TOP 3.
LAST 4 YEARS I HAVE CALLED 2/3!!!!